来源：市场资讯 （来源：吴说） 作者：SoSoValue 社区研究员 ET（Agarwood Capital） 原文链接：https://sosovalue.com/zh/sosocholar/post/1985893440846393346 声明：本文为转载内容，读者可通过原文链接获得更多信息。如作者对转载形式有任何异议，请联系我们，我们将按照作者要求进行 修改。转载仅用于信息分享，不构成任何投资建议，不代表吴说观点与立场。 一、前言 当投资者仍在为比特币的下跌寻找情绪与技术面的解释时，真正的答案已悄然写进美国金融系统的账本：美元流动性正遭遇一次结构 性紧缩。具体表现为 ⦁ 财政部 TGA 账户余额接近 1 万亿美元，大量吸走市场流动性； ⦁ 短端资金市场压力陡升，SOFR–FDTR 利差一度扩大至 +30bp； ⦁ 美联储被迫重启临时回购操作（Overnight Repo），向市场注入近 300 亿美元流动性——这是自2019年回购危机以来首次。 这场流动性"真空"并非偶然，核心是政府关门导致。财政部在预算僵局与潜在政府关门风险下提前"吸金备粮"，大量发债将现金锁入 TGA 账户，直接抽走银行体系准备金， ...

Group 1: Macro Insights - NATO has set a new defense spending target of 5% of GDP by 2035, which may lead to a moderate boost in EU economic growth but could also increase fiscal deficits and narrow surpluses [2] - The U.S. imports have shown a fluctuating trend since June, with a notable increase in South Korea's export growth, likely due to the upcoming expiration of tariff exemptions [2] - The overall U.S. consumer and employment markets are cooling, with inflation pressures still being transmitted, indicating potential disruptions in trade volumes as tariff deadlines approach [2] Group 2: Energy Sector - Recent positive changes in port coal prices have been observed, with CCI5500/5000/4500 coal prices increasing by 2/10/9 RMB per ton respectively as of June 25 [5] - The demand for coal is expected to rise due to seasonal factors, with fire power consumption likely to increase as hydropower output declines [5] - Recommendations include focusing on leading coal companies such as China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal and Chemical Industry, and China Coal Energy, which are expected to benefit from the seasonal rebound in coal prices [5] Group 3: Fixed Income and Financial Markets - The TGA account's increasing share is impacting U.S. dollar liquidity, with expectations that the TGA balance will be exhausted by the end of August [7] - The balance of the TGA account is influenced by the debt ceiling, with historical trends showing a decrease before the ceiling is reached, followed by an increase [7] - The report highlights the potential for liquidity pressure on the U.S. dollar as the Treasury may need to issue short-term debt to replenish funds post-X-date [7] Group 4: Pharmaceutical Industry - The 2025 ASCO conference saw a 35% increase in the number of Chinese innovative drugs presented, with 67 studies included in oral presentations [8] - Notable drugs such as IBI363 and MRG003 have shown promising data that could revolutionize existing treatment protocols [8] - Companies like Shiyao Group, Kelun-Botai, and Hutchison China MediTech are recommended for investment due to their involvement in innovative drug development [8] Group 5: Technology Sector - Micron Technology reported better-than-expected revenue and profit guidance, with HBM revenue increasing by 50% quarter-over-quarter [10] - The company plans to reduce NAND wafer capacity by 10% to balance supply and demand, which may lead to short-term profit-taking due to stock price doubling since April [10] - Micron is expected to benefit from increased HBM demand driven by GPU and ASIC markets, with significant supply agreements in place with major clients [10] Group 6: Consumer Goods - The main brand Han Shu of the company has shown strong competitiveness in the mass skincare market, with a stable foundation and expansion into more categories [11] - The company is expected to benefit from a multi-brand strategy that captures market opportunities in various segments such as baby care and cosmetics [11] - The report maintains a "buy" rating based on the potential for valuation convergence with industry peers as the company continues to expand its product lines and channels [11] Group 7: Insurance Sector - Zhong An Online plans to issue new H shares at a price of 18.25 HKD, which will help meet capital needs and support its insurance and technology business development [11] - The company's insurance business fundamentals are expected to improve in the first half of the year, with potential benefits from the development of stablecoins in Hong Kong [11]