Market Performance - The Hong Kong stock market fell by 5.09% last week, primarily influenced by the materials, healthcare, and industrial sectors, with the healthcare sector experiencing a significant decline of 8.65%[1] - The telecommunications and utilities sectors showed relative stability, with minor declines of 1.58% and 2.18% respectively, indicating a cautious market sentiment overall[1] - The net inflow of funds through the Hong Kong Stock Connect reached HKD 38.602 billion, suggesting a stabilization in the market as some short positions took profits[1] Investment Environment - Global risk appetite remained cautious, with major asset classes experiencing varying degrees of decline due to uncertainties surrounding the Federal Reserve's policy direction[2] - The Federal Reserve's October meeting minutes revealed significant internal disagreement regarding the policy direction for December, contributing to market uncertainty[2] - A dovish statement from New York Fed President Williams improved market sentiment towards the end of the week[2] Future Outlook - The external environment is expected to improve, potentially leading to a short-term recovery in the Hong Kong stock market, driven by enhanced risk appetite and restored liquidity following the reopening of the U.S. government[3] - The upcoming release of the November CPI data on December 10 is anticipated to clarify the Federal Reserve's decision-making process for December, maintaining a level of uncertainty until then[3] - The overall liquidity situation is improving, as indicated by a decrease in the U.S. Treasury General Account balance, which suggests an influx of liquidity into the market[3]

大宗商品周度报告 2025年11月24日 ●行情回顾：商品市场上周整体承压回落下跌1.81%。各板块均收跌，其中 贵金属领跌4.07%、能化、农产品、有色和黑色分别下跌2.36%、1.55%、 1.52%和0.25%。 美联储关于降息态度反复 商品短期或震荡运行 具体品种收盘价来看，涨幅居前的品种为铁矿石、玉米和热卷，涨幅分 别为1.68%、0.46%和0.43%；跌幅较大的品种为焦煤、白银和纸浆，跌 幅分别为7.47%、5.62%和4.6%。 商品市场20日平均波动率降幅收窄，贵金属板块波动率进一步下降。资 金方面，全市场规模大幅下降，各板块资金均表现为净流出，主要集中在有 色贵金属品种。 ●展望：美联储偏鹰的言论使得美元流动性边际收紧，引发市场风险偏好的 收缩，风险资产承压回落。不过随着日元持续走弱，对于美元强势的支撑作 用有所下降。同时周五纽约联储主席威廉姆斯的"鸽派"讲话也使得市场情 绪有所回暖，但持续性有待观察。美联储关于降息的态度反复，商品市场短 期或震荡运行。 贵金属方面，美国补发部分经济数据具备韧性，9月非农就业人数增加 11.9万超预期和前值，美联储官员们表态存在较大分歧，12月维持利率不变 ...

Core Viewpoint - Bitcoin price has dropped below $82,000, a decline of over 30% from the peak of $126,000 in October, marking a new low since April. Analysts attribute this decline primarily to tightening dollar liquidity [1]. Group 1: Dollar Liquidity and Market Conditions - Since the end of October, dollar liquidity has noticeably tightened, although recent factors such as the reopening of the U.S. government have provided some relief [1]. - The significant increase in the Treasury General Account (TGA) balance during the government shutdown has led to a liquidity withdrawal of approximately $700 billion from the market, exacerbating monetary market tensions [2]. - The Federal Reserve's ongoing balance sheet reduction has also contributed to the tightening of market liquidity, with total assets decreasing from $8.9 trillion to $6.6 trillion since June 2022 [4]. Group 2: Federal Reserve's Monetary Policy - The FOMC meeting minutes revealed a significant divide among policymakers regarding the potential for further rate cuts in December, with some members noting that inflation is close to target while others emphasize persistent inflation above the target [5]. - Recent employment data has alleviated concerns about labor market downturns, leading to expectations that the Fed's next rate cut may be delayed until January [5]. - The Fed's decision to halt balance sheet reduction starting December 1 and reinvest maturing MBS into Treasury securities may further ease market pressures [6]. Group 3: Market Reactions and Future Outlook - The liquidity crisis has not fully materialized, remaining confined to specific areas of the repo market without widespread impact on the real economy or sectors like AI [6]. - Following dovish comments from the New York Fed President, market expectations for a December rate cut have surged, with the probability of a 25 basis point cut rising to 71% [7]. - The dollar index closed at 100.22, reflecting a 2.5% increase since the end of September, indicating a potential for a slight rebound in the dollar in Q4 [8].

Core Viewpoint - Bitcoin price has fallen below the critical psychological level of $90,000 for the first time in seven months, driven by a sharp shift in macro liquidity expectations and uncertainty surrounding the Federal Reserve's monetary policy outlook [2][3] Market Dynamics - As of the latest report, Bitcoin is trading at $89,777.1, down 5.45% [3] - The decline in Bitcoin's price is attributed to a decrease in the probability of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December, leading investors to systematically withdraw from high-risk assets [3] - Morgan Stanley's recent research indicates that if the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) does not change its stance in December, the tightening of dollar liquidity will directly suppress the performance of non-yielding assets, including Bitcoin [3] Liquidity and Market Sentiment - Shiliang Tang from Monarq Asset Management notes that the weakening of rate cut expectations has altered funding cost expectations, resulting in a decline in the crypto market after losing the $100,000 threshold, which is seen as a natural outcome of the liquidity premium dissipating [3] - Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX, warns that the drop in Bitcoin from $125,000 to the $90,000 range, while the stock market remains at historical highs, suggests that a "credit event is brewing" [3][4] Potential Price Movements - Hayes further indicates that the dollar liquidity index has weakened significantly since July, and if market conditions worsen, the Federal Reserve or other institutions may be forced to accelerate "money printing" to stabilize the situation, potentially leading Bitcoin to fall back to the $80,000 to $85,000 range [4] - Market analyst Damian Chmiel suggests that if Bitcoin continues to trade below $100,000, it could trigger a more severe sell-off, with the next target being the April low of approximately $74,000, indicating about a 30% potential downside from current levels [4] Long-term Outlook - Despite recent market turmoil, Tom Lee from Fundstrat maintains a bullish outlook, predicting that Bitcoin could soar to between $150,000 and $200,000 by the end of 2025, citing that the market has recently experienced a historic liquidation event larger than the FTX collapse, which has not shaken his long-term confidence [4]

今天分享的是：2025美元流动性的三维度观测 报告共计：16页 美元流动性三维度观测：压力积聚但危机可控 在全球金融体系中，美元流动性的变化始终是市场关注的焦点。近日，一份研究报告从三个关键市场出发，系统性地分析了美 元流动性的现状与未来走势。该研究构建了一个三维观测矩阵，分别从联邦基金市场、回购市场和离岸美元市场切入，通过规 模、价格和政策三个维度，全面评估美元流动性的真实状况。 联邦基金市场作为美元流动性的基石，其核心观测指标已从"价格"转向"规模"。在充裕准备金框架下，银行体系的准备金总量 直接反映了基础美元的充裕程度。数据显示，尽管美联储自2022年6月开启新一轮缩表，总资产规模趋势性走低，但得益于逆回 购工具的缓冲作用，银行体系准备金尚未被大幅抽离。截至2025年9月，准备金总量维持在3.2万亿美元，占银行总资产比重为 12.9%，处于相对充裕区间。然而，随着缩表持续进行，财政部一般账户余额回升，以及隔夜逆回购工具规模濒临枯竭，准备金 正面临收缩压力，预计将向美联储设定的流动性警戒线逼近。 回购市场作为美元流动性的重要枢纽，其价格指标SOFR与数量指标一级交易商行为成为观测重点。担保隔夜融资利率通常 ...

Market Overview - On November 18, US stock indices collectively declined, with the Dow Jones falling over 500 points, a decrease of approximately 1.2% [1] - The S&P 500 index has dropped over 2% since November, ending a six-month streak of gains, and is down more than 3% from its historical peak [1] - The tech-heavy Nasdaq has fallen over 5% from its record high [1] Stock Performance - Major tech stocks mostly declined, with Micron Technology down nearly 2%, Nvidia and Apple down over 1.8%, and Meta down 1.2%. Tesla, however, rose by 1.1% [2] - Google was a notable exception, initially rising 6% to reach a new all-time high before closing with a gain of just over 3%. Berkshire Hathaway reportedly built a position in Google during Q3 [2] - The Nasdaq China Golden Dragon Index fell by 1.21%, with significant declines in several Chinese stocks, including Yatsen Global down nearly 21% and XPeng down over 10% [2] Commodity Market - Precious metals and base metals experienced widespread declines, with spot gold dropping nearly 2% to a low of $4006.80 per ounce before closing around $4045 [4] - LME aluminum, nickel, and lead all fell over 1% [4] - The CME FedWatch Tool indicates a reduced probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December, now at 42.9% [4] Cryptocurrency Market - Cryptocurrencies faced significant declines, with Bitcoin dropping below $92,000 and Ethereum also falling below $3,000 [4][5] - Over the past 24 hours, more than 160,000 traders were liquidated, with a total liquidation amount of $851 million [5] - The recent drop in Bitcoin prices is attributed to tightening dollar liquidity and changing Federal Reserve policy expectations, leading to increased selling pressure on high-volatility assets [5][6] Risk Assets - An unusual phenomenon observed is the simultaneous decline of risk assets like Bitcoin and traditional safe-haven assets like gold, which raises concerns [6]

Market Performance - US stock market opened lower but turned positive, with the Dow Jones up 0.01%, S&P 500 up 0.01%, and Nasdaq up 0.07% as of 23:16 [1] - Major tech stocks showed mixed performance, with Micron Technology rising over 5% to reach a new historical high, while Nvidia, Apple, and Amazon fell over 1% [2][3] Company Highlights - Berkshire Hathaway disclosed its Q3 13F report, marking Warren Buffett's last detailed stock portfolio disclosure before stepping down as CEO, revealing significant sales of Apple shares and purchases of Alphabet shares [2] - Google (Alphabet) stock rose over 4%, reaching a market value of over $3.5 trillion [2] Chinese Stocks - Nasdaq China Golden Dragon Index fell 0.04%, but some popular Chinese stocks like Alibaba, GDS, and JD.com saw gains of 3.6%, 3.3%, and 2.4% respectively [3] Precious Metals - Gold prices continued to adjust, with spot gold down 0.43% at $4062.56 per ounce, and COMEX gold futures down 0.49% at $4074.2 [3][4] Cryptocurrency Market - Most cryptocurrencies continued to decline, with Bitcoin down 1.32% and Ethereum and Solana dropping nearly 2% [5] - Over the past 24 hours, more than 160,000 traders were liquidated, with total liquidation amounting to $786 million [6] - Bitcoin's price fell below $94,000, erasing all gains for the year and dropping over 25% from its peak of $126,251 on October 6 [6][7] Market Sentiment - Analysts noted that the significant drop in Bitcoin's price is primarily due to tightening dollar liquidity and changing Federal Reserve policy expectations, leading to increased selling pressure on high-volatility assets [7] - A concerning trend observed is the simultaneous decline of risk assets like Bitcoin and traditional safe-haven assets like gold, indicating potential systemic liquidity issues in the market [7]

除流动性因素外，加密资产的信任危机进一步加剧了下跌态势。今年10月，美国司法部成功没收柬埔寨 电诈集团所持有的12.7万枚比特币，价值约150亿美元，创下全球加密资产没收规模纪录。业内认为， 这一事件也直接打破了加密资产"绝对安全"的神话，原本被视为终极保护的私钥被执法机构破解，区块 链也并非"法外之地"。 "加密资产标榜的安全性受到严重质疑，这直接破坏了其价值根基。"盘和林表示，若市场普遍认为加密 资产的交易安全性已丧失，不排除行业进入长期熊市的可能性。投资者信心动摇引发的恐慌性抛售，成 为此次价格下跌的重要助推力。 除此之外，近期机构资金撤离迹象明显，业内认为，11月以来美国比特币和以太坊ETF已出现多日净流 出，叠加行业监管不确定性仍存，进一步加剧了市场波动。 展望后续市场走向，盘和林称，比特币本质是风险资产，而非避险工具，其价格走势与整体经济形势、 美股尤其是科技股高度同步。"比特币不会在美元宽松、美国经济繁荣时崩溃，但如果美国经济出现趋 势性风险，将大概率连带加密资产一同调整。"盘和林解释，作为风险资产放大器，比特币在市场波动 加剧时，跌幅往往超过传统风险资产。 北京商报讯（记者 刘四红）加密资产市 ...

Core Viewpoint - The cryptocurrency market is experiencing significant downward pressure, with Bitcoin and Ethereum prices declining sharply, indicating a broader market downturn [1][3][4]. Market Performance - Bitcoin's price has fallen to $95,563, down 24% from its yearly high of $126,200, with a daily drop of 0.54%, a weekly decline of nearly 10%, and a monthly decrease of 14% [3]. - Ethereum is also under pressure, currently priced at $3,174, with a daily drop of 1.55% and a monthly decline of 20% [3]. Market Dynamics - A total of 97,824 investors faced liquidation in the past 24 hours, with a cumulative liquidation amount of $251 million, reflecting significant volatility in the market [3]. - The decline in Bitcoin's price is attributed to two main factors: its "scarcity" and "dollar liquidity," with the immediate trigger being the contraction of dollar liquidity [4]. Trust Crisis - A recent event where the U.S. Department of Justice seized 127,000 Bitcoins from a Cambodian fraud group, valued at approximately $15 billion, has undermined the perceived security of cryptocurrency [4]. - The belief that cryptocurrencies are absolutely secure has been challenged, leading to a potential long-term bear market if trust in transaction security continues to erode [4]. Institutional Behavior - There are clear signs of institutional capital withdrawal, with net outflows observed in Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs since November, compounded by ongoing regulatory uncertainties [4][5]. Future Outlook - If dollar liquidity continues to tighten, Bitcoin may test the $90,000 support level; conversely, if the Federal Reserve resumes rate cuts, a rebound could occur [5]. - The long-term outlook for the cryptocurrency market remains uncertain, with a need for investors to recognize the high-risk nature of these assets [5]. - Bitcoin is transitioning from a speculative asset to an institutional asset, with its future value increasingly dependent on liquidity conditions, regulatory policies, and the rebuilding of trust [5].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In November, the macro environment enters a vacuum period, and major asset classes lack further bullish drivers. The market needs to digest previous gains, so major assets may enter a short - term oscillation period. However, the overall allocation idea in the fourth quarter remains unchanged, and the macro environment is still favorable for risk assets. It is recommended that investors maintain a balanced allocation in major assets in the fourth quarter, continue to hold long positions, and focus on the allocation opportunities of stock indices, non - ferrous metals (copper, lithium carbonate, aluminum, tin), and precious metals. If there is a certain correction in the fourth quarter, appropriate additional allocation can be made [7] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro Highlights - **Overseas Macro**: This week, the global macro focus is more on changes in US dollar liquidity. Although the US dollar liquidity seems to be in a short - term tight situation, it will not have a significant impact on major asset prices. There are two factors for the improvement of US dollar liquidity: marginal easing of monetary policy and the normal release of funds in the TGA account once the US government resumes work, which can relieve the short - term pressure on US dollar liquidity to a certain extent [7] - **Domestic Macro**: In October, China's export volume growth was weaker than expected and the previous value, and the month - on - month performance was also weaker than the seasonal average. However, more optimistic information was seen in the October inflation data. In addition, there is a possibility that the October consumption data may slightly exceed expectations [7] - **Asset Views**: In November, the macro environment enters a vacuum period, and major asset classes lack further bullish drivers. The market needs to digest previous gains, so major assets may enter a short - term oscillation period. The overall allocation idea in the fourth quarter remains unchanged, and the macro environment is still favorable for risk assets. It is recommended that investors maintain a balanced allocation in major assets in the fourth quarter, continue to hold long positions, and focus on the allocation opportunities of stock indices, non - ferrous metals (copper, lithium carbonate, aluminum, tin), and precious metals. If there is a certain correction in the fourth quarter, appropriate additional allocation can be made [7] 3.2 Viewpoint Highlights 3.2.1 Financial Sector - **Stock Index Futures**: Driven by technology - related events, the growth style is active. Concerns include the overcrowding of small - cap funds. The short - term outlook is oscillatory upward [9] - **Stock Index Options**: The overall market trading volume has slightly declined. Concerns include the lower - than - expected liquidity in the options market. The short - term outlook is oscillatory [9] - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The bond market continues to be weak. Concerns include policy surprises, better - than - expected fundamental recovery, and tariff factor surprises. The short - term outlook is oscillatory [9] 3.2.2 Precious Metals Sector - **Gold/Silver**: With the easing of geopolitical and trade tensions, precious metals are in a phased adjustment. Concerns include the performance of the US fundamentals, the Fed's monetary policy, and the global equity market trends. The short - term outlook is oscillatory [9] 3.2.3 Shipping Sector - **Container Shipping to Europe**: In the third quarter, the peak season has passed, and there is pressure on loading with no upward drivers. Concerns include the rate of freight decline in September. The short - term outlook is oscillatory [9] - **Steel**: There is limited market driving force, and the market is oscillating at a low level. Concerns include the progress of special bond issuance, steel exports, and pig iron production. The short - term outlook is oscillatory [9] - **Iron Ore**: Pig iron production is stable in the short term, and the market is oscillating. Concerns include overseas mine production and shipment, domestic pig iron production, weather factors, port ore inventory changes, and policy dynamics. The short - term outlook is oscillatory [9] 3.2.4 Black Building Materials Sector - **Coke**: Market sentiment is average, and the market is oscillating at a low level. Concerns include steel mill production, coking costs, and macro sentiment. The short - term outlook is oscillatory [9] - **Coking Coal**: Supply has slightly recovered, and there is an obvious divergence between futures and spot. Concerns include steel mill production, coal mine safety inspections, and macro sentiment. The short - term outlook is oscillatory [9] - **Silicon Iron**: There is still cost support, and attention is paid to the final pricing of steel tenders. Concerns include raw material costs and steel tender situations. The short - term outlook is oscillatory [9] - **Manganese Silicon**: The supply - demand situation is loose, suppressing the market, and the futures price is mainly oscillating at a low level. Concerns include cost prices and overseas quotes. The short - term outlook is oscillatory [9] - **Glass**: The inventory contradiction is intensifying, and both futures and spot prices are falling. Concerns include spot sales. The short - term outlook is oscillatory [9] - **Soda Ash**: The supply - demand situation is still in surplus, and the cost - driven upward movement is limited. Concerns include soda ash inventory. The short - term outlook is oscillatory [9] - **Alumina**: The fundamental situation is still in surplus, and the alumina price is under pressure and oscillating. Concerns include the failure of ore production to recover as expected, the over - expected resumption of electrolytic aluminum production, and extreme market trends. The short - term outlook is oscillatory [9] - **Aluminum**: There is a linkage between stocks and futures, and the aluminum price is oscillating upward. Concerns include macro risks, supply disruptions, and lower - than - expected demand. The short - term outlook is oscillatory upward [9] - **Zinc**: The export window is open, and the zinc price is oscillating at a high level. Concerns include macro - turning risks and the over - expected recovery of zinc ore supply. The short - term outlook is oscillatory [9] - **Lead**: Social inventory has slightly increased, and the lead price is oscillating. Concerns include supply - side disruptions and slow battery exports. The short - term outlook is oscillatory [9] - **Nickel**: Market sentiment has improved, and the nickel price is oscillating. Concerns include unexpected macro and geopolitical changes, Indonesian policy risks, and the failure of supply to be released as expected. The short - term outlook is oscillatory [9] - **Stainless Steel**: Warehouse receipts continue to decline, and the stainless - steel market is oscillating. Concerns include Indonesian policy risks and over - expected demand growth. The short - term outlook is oscillatory [9] - **Tin**: Shanghai tin inventory continues to decline, and the tin price is oscillating. Concerns include the expected resumption of production in Wa State and changes in demand improvement expectations. The short - term outlook is oscillatory [9] - **Industrial Silicon**: The supply in the southwest region has rapidly declined, and the silicon price is oscillating. Concerns include over - expected supply cuts and over - expected photovoltaic installations. The short - term outlook is oscillatory [9] - **Lithium Carbonate**: The resumption of production expectations are fluctuating, and caution is needed for significant price fluctuations. Concerns include lower - than - expected demand, supply disruptions, and new technological breakthroughs. The short - term outlook is oscillatory [9] 3.2.5 Energy and Chemical Sector - **Crude Oil**: The expectation of oversupply is strengthening, and geopolitical disturbances still exist. Concerns include OPEC+ production policies and the Middle East geopolitical situation. The short - term outlook is oscillatory [11] - **LPG**: Refinery out - put has decreased, and the import cost is under pressure. Concerns include the cost progress of crude oil and overseas propane. The short - term outlook is oscillatory [11] - **Asphalt**: The spot price in Shandong has stabilized, and the asphalt futures price is oscillating. Concerns include sanctions and supply disruptions. The short - term outlook is oscillatory [11] - **High - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: The fuel oil futures price is oscillating, and attention is paid to the progress of the Russia - Ukraine conflict. Concerns include geopolitics and crude oil prices. The short - term outlook is oscillatory [11] - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: The refined oil market is strong, and low - sulfur fuel oil may run strongly. Concerns include crude oil prices. The short - term outlook is oscillatory upward [11] - **Methanol**: The high - inventory situation is suppressing the market, and overseas disturbances are not significant. Methanol is oscillating and consolidating. Concerns include macro - energy and overseas dynamics. The short - term outlook is oscillatory [11] - **Urea**: There is still an increase in production capacity, and the futures price is under short - term pressure. Concerns include the implementation of export quotas and the coal price market. The short - term outlook is oscillatory [11] - **Ethylene Glycol**: The spot market is loose, and there is still production profit. There is little hope of reversing the downward trend in the short term. Concerns include coal and oil price fluctuations, port inventory rhythm, and Sino - US trade frictions. The short - term outlook is oscillatory downward [11] - **PX**: Market sentiment is becoming more rational, and the processing fee is strongly supported under the situation of strong supply and demand. Concerns include significant crude oil price fluctuations and macro abnormalities. The short - term outlook is oscillatory [11] - **PTA**: Market sentiment is flat, and the basis is under pressure. Concerns include significant crude oil price fluctuations and macro abnormalities. The short - term outlook is oscillatory [11] - **Short - Fiber**: The market follows the "buy on dips" pattern, and attention is paid to the conversion between peak and off - peak seasons. Concerns include the purchasing rhythm of downstream yarn mills and the quality of peak - season demand. The short - term outlook is oscillatory [11] - **Bottle Chips**: The market performance is flat, and it passively follows the cost. Concerns include the implementation of bottle - chip enterprise production reduction targets and new device commissioning situations. The short - term outlook is oscillatory [11] - **Propylene**: Inventory still needs time to be digested, and the market is oscillating weakly. Concerns include oil prices and the domestic macro environment. The short - term outlook is oscillatory [11] - **PP**: The support from maintenance is still limited, and PP is oscillating weakly. Concerns include oil prices and domestic and overseas macro environments. The short - term outlook is oscillatory [11] - **Plastic**: Maintenance has decreased, and plastic is oscillating weakly. Concerns include oil prices and domestic and overseas macro environments. The short - term outlook is oscillatory [11] - **Styrene**: There are still concerns about over - inventory, and styrene is oscillating weakly. Concerns include oil prices, macro policies, and device dynamics. The short - term outlook is oscillatory [11] - **PVC**: The weak reality is suppressing the market, and PVC is oscillating weakly. Concerns include expectations, costs, and supply. The short - term outlook is oscillatory [11] - **Caustic Soda**: The market is in a situation of low valuation and weak expectations, and caustic soda is oscillating. Concerns include market sentiment, start - up, and demand. The short - term outlook is oscillatory [11] - **Oils and Fats**: Rapeseed oil continues to lead the oils and fats market, and attention is paid to the USDA report. Concerns include US soybean weather and Malaysian palm oil production and demand data. The short - term outlook is oscillatory upward [11] - **Protein Meal**: The market expects the supply - demand report to be bullish, and soybean meal follows the rise of US soybeans. Concerns include weather, domestic demand, the macro environment, and Sino - US and Sino - Canada trade wars. The short - term outlook is oscillatory [11] - **Corn/Starch**: The short - term supply tension has not been relieved, and the market is oscillating at a high level. Concerns include demand, the macro environment, and weather. The short - term outlook is oscillatory [11] - **Pigs**: The situation of near - term weakness and long - term strength in the pig market continues. Concerns include breeding sentiment, epidemics, and policies. The short - term outlook is oscillatory downward [11] 3.2.6 Agricultural Sector - **Natural Rubber**: Driven by a strong macro environment, the rubber price continues to rise. Concerns include production area weather, raw material prices, and macro changes. The short - term outlook is oscillatory [11] - **Synthetic Rubber**: The market continues to rebound. Concerns include significant crude oil price fluctuations. The short - term outlook is oscillatory [11] - **Cotton**: The cotton price has slightly declined, and the upside and downside space of the 01 contract is expected to be limited. Concerns include demand and inventory. The short - term outlook is oscillatory [11] - **Sugar**: Zhengzhou sugar has rebounded and returned above 5500 yuan/ton. Concerns include imports and Brazilian production. The short - term outlook is oscillatory downward [11] - **Pulp**: The market is dominated by capital, and the long - position advantage remains unchanged. Concerns include macro - economic changes and US dollar - based quote fluctuations. The short - term outlook is oscillatory [11] - **Offset Paper**: The fundamental situation has limited changes, and offset paper is oscillating within a range. Concerns include production and sales, education policies, and paper mill start - up dynamics. The short - term outlook is oscillatory [11] - **Logs**: The port - arrival pressure first increases and then decreases, and logs are oscillating at a low level. Concerns include special port fees, shipment volume, and dispatch volume. The short - term outlook is oscillatory [11]