Group 1: Market Overview - The market showed a volatile recovery trend last week. Most indices opened lower on Monday and gradually recovered, but still ended the week with losses. The ChiNext Index led the decline, with a weekly drop of 1.67%. The non - bank financial and computer sectors were weak, with weekly declines of about 3.98% and 3.43% respectively, while the non - ferrous metals sector was prominent, with a weekly gain of 2.78% [1] - The market focus remained on the geopolitical situation. The geopolitical situation was still tense, and the uncertainty in the Strait of Hormuz supported high - level volatile energy prices. Overseas, the US dollar index continued to fluctuate strongly, and the US March PMI indicators were divided, leading to a further decline in market expectations for the Fed to cut interest rates. Domestically, the RMB exchange rate remained in a strong - oscillating pattern [1] Group 2: Options Market - In the options market last week, the implied volatility (IV) of various financial options rebounded. The IV of the STAR 50 options (IV = 29%) and ChiNext ETF options (IV = 24%) rose above the median of the past year. The IV of 50 and 300 options was in the range of 15% - 17%, and that of CSI 500 and CSI 1000 options was in the range of 25% - 28%. The PCR of most financial options was in the range of 60% - 80%, slightly lower than the previous week [2] Group 3: Strategy Outlook - The market may continue the volatile pattern, and the implied volatility of financial options will continue to rise. It is advisable to hold indices with relatively reasonable valuations, such as the SSE 50 and CSI 300, and consider selling out - of - the - money put options on the corresponding indices. For the STAR 50 Index, which has large recent fluctuations and high static valuations, if holding the underlying assets, one can consider buying out - of - the - money put options or selling out - of - the - money call options. If there are substantial spot gains, one can consider taking profits on the spot and keeping a small amount of long - term call options. The CSI 1000 - 2606 index futures basis has converged, and one can consider rolling over to the 2609 contract with a higher basis to form a covered call strategy [3] Group 4: Market Data - The report provides detailed data on various financial options, including the closing price, price change, IV, ΔIV (daily), historical quantile, IV median in the past year, option trading volume, and PCR of multiple underlying assets such as the SSE 50ETF, SSE 50 Index, CSI 300ETF, CSI 500ETF, CSI 1000 Index, ChiNext ETF, STAR 50ETF, and Shenzhen 100ETF [5] - It also presents data on the price, price change, IV of different months, and related quantiles of various underlying assets over different time periods, as well as information on IV term structure, intraday IV trends, skew index, smile curve, and the relationship between IV and trading volume [7][10][15]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report indicates that the recent strengthening of the US dollar is primarily due to the relatively lower impact of the Middle East conflict on the US economy, rather than changes in interest rate expectations [3][11][12] - The OECD's latest economic outlook predicts a downward revision of 0.2% for the Eurozone's economic growth in 2026, while the US growth forecast has been revised upward by 0.3% [3][12] - The report highlights that the US has a lower dependency on oil imports and a service-oriented economic structure, which contributes to its resilience compared to European countries that are more affected by rising oil prices [3][12] Group 2 - Following the Middle East conflict, there has been a notable return of funds to US dollar assets, with a decrease in the currency swap basis for major non-USD currencies [4][19] - Despite tightening global dollar liquidity, the report states that it has not reached a crisis level, as indicators of US market liquidity remain healthy [4][19][23] - The report notes that since March 23, the currency swap basis for major non-USD currencies has begun to normalize, suggesting that the most acute phase of dollar liquidity tightening may have passed [4][19] Group 3 - The narrative of a "weak dollar" has been challenged, as the market has seen a reversal in trends, with emerging markets underperforming compared to US stocks since the conflict began [4][29] - The report indicates that the performance of gold has been particularly weak during this liquidity tightening phase, contrasting with its historical resilience during previous crises [4][35][36] - The report suggests that the current environment may lead to a stabilization period for commodity pricing, as the monetary attributes of commodities are expected to fluctuate [5][48] Group 4 - The report emphasizes that the long-term pricing of gold is approaching levels seen before the collapse of the Bretton Woods system, with gold now comprising 25.2% of global official reserves [5][48][49] - It also highlights the potential for the US government to sell gold to finance deficits if fiscal pressures continue to mount, indicating a shift in the dynamics of commodity markets [5][48][50] - The report concludes that future supply and demand changes in industrial metals will become increasingly important to monitor [5]

Group 1: Report Investment Rating - There is no information about the industry investment rating provided in the report. Group 2: Core Viewpoints - On March 26, platinum and palladium prices fluctuated weakly. PT2606 closed down 4.78% to 487.40 yuan/gram, and PD2606 closed down 5.23% to 35.35 yuan/gram. [6] - At the macro - level, the cease - fire negotiation statements between the US and Iran conflicted, the Middle East situation did not ease substantially, oil prices remained high, inflation expectations and monetary policy tightening expectations continued to compete, and the US dollar liquidity environment remained tight. [6] - With high oil prices, the market's expectation of the Fed's interest rate hike has been strengthened, the probability of an interest rate hike within the year in market pricing has exceeded 50%, the US dollar and US Treasury yields fluctuated at high levels, and technical selling pressure due to short - term profit - taking after the sharp rise in platinum and palladium prices the previous day suppressed platinum and palladium prices. [6] - Fundamentally, on the 25th, the one - month platinum lease rate dropped 156bp to 8.9527%, indicating a cooling of the short - term platinum market sentiment; in the long - term, the pattern of strong platinum and weak palladium is expected to continue. [6] - It is expected that platinum and palladium will probably maintain a range - bound trend in the short term. After the uncertainty of the Middle East geopolitical situation eases, one can deploy long positions in platinum unilaterally at low prices or continue to hold the [long platinum, short palladium] strategy. [6] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Domestic Prices - Platinum futures main contract closing price was 487.4 yuan/gram, down 3.65% from the previous value; spot platinum (99.95%) was 486 yuan/gram, down 3.38%; platinum basis (spot - futures) was - 1.4 yuan/gram, down 50.88%. [4] - Lithium futures main contract closing price was 353.35 yuan/gram, down 4.12% from the previous value; spot lithium (99.95%) was 352.5 yuan/gram, down 3.29%; lithium basis (spot - futures) was - 0.85 yuan/gram, down 79.01%. [4] International Prices - London spot platinum was 1892.3 US dollars/ounce, down 3.57% from the previous value; London spot palladium was 1402.207 US dollars/ounce, down 4.40%. [4] - NYMEX platinum was 1876.1 US dollars/ounce, down 3.85% from the previous value; NYMEX palladium was 1402.5 US dollars/ounce, down 4.07%. [4] Exchange Rate and Spread - The US dollar/renminbi central parity rate was 6.9056, up 0.21% from the previous value. [4] - The spread between domestic platinum and London platinum was 12.65 yuan/gram, down 13.18% from the previous value; the spread between domestic platinum and NYMEX platinum was 16.72 yuan/gram, down 3.53%. [4] - The spread between domestic lithium and London lithium was 1.56 yuan/gram, up 14.81% from the previous value; the spread between domestic lithium and NYMEX lithium was 2.53 yuan/gram, down 41.22%. [5] Price Ratios - The ratio of platinum to lithium on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange was 1.3794, up 0.0068 from the previous value; the ratio of London spot platinum to lithium was 1.3379, up 0.0116 from the previous value. [5] Inventory - NYMEX platinum inventory was 573,753 troy ounces, down 0.95% from the previous value; NYMEX palladium inventory was 248,374 troy ounces, with no change from the previous value. [5] Position - NYMEX total platinum position was 67,292, down 2.13% from the previous value; non - commercial net long position of platinum was 14,690, up 15.03%. [5] - NYMEX total palladium position was 15,679, down 0.78% from the previous value; non - commercial net long position of palladium was - 156, up 18.59%. [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The market continued its oscillating trend last week, with major indices showing divergent performances. The ChiNext Index led the gains with a weekly increase of 2.51%, while the Science and Technology Innovation 50 Index led the losses with a weekly decline of 2.88% [1]. - In terms of sectors, coal and power equipment sectors performed prominently, with weekly increases of 5.03% and 4.55% respectively. Defense and military, and petroleum and petrochemical sectors showed weak trends, with weekly declines of about 6.64% and 4.33% respectively [1]. - The market focus last week remained on the evolution of geopolitical situations and changes in US dollar liquidity. The current geopolitical situation is still complex, and the uncertainty in the Middle East situation, especially the uncertainty of the navigation situation in the Strait of Hormuz, has pushed energy prices to continue to oscillate at high levels [1]. - In terms of exchange rates, high energy prices have led to a continuous increase in inflationary pressure in the US. The market expects the Federal Reserve to postpone interest rate cuts, and the US dollar index has maintained a high - level and relatively strong oscillation. The RMB currently maintains an oscillating and relatively strong pattern, which provides some support for the stock index [1]. - The market is expected to continue its oscillating pattern, and the implied volatility of financial options has rebounded. It is advisable to hold indices with relatively reasonable valuations such as the CSI 300 and CSI A500. For the STAR 50 Index with large recent fluctuations and still relatively high static valuations, if holding the underlying assets, one can consider buying out - of - the - money put options or selling out - of - the - money call options to reduce exposure risks. If there are already substantial spot returns, one can consider taking profits on the spot and keeping a small amount of long - term call options to cope with the irrational rise of the market, such as the ChiNext Index. The discount of the CSI 1000 - 2606 stock index futures has converged, and one can consider moving positions to the 2609 contract with a relatively high discount to form a covered call strategy of long - index and short - out - of - the - money call options [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Overview - Last week, the market continued to oscillate, with major indices showing divergent performances. The ChiNext Index led the gains, and the Science and Technology Innovation 50 Index led the losses. Coal and power equipment sectors performed well, while defense and military, and petroleum and petrochemical sectors showed weak trends [1]. - The market focus was on geopolitical situations and US dollar liquidity. Geopolitical complexity pushed energy prices to oscillate at high levels. High energy prices increased US inflationary pressure, and the market expected the Fed to postpone interest rate cuts. The RMB was relatively strong, supporting the stock index [1]. 3.2 Options Market - In the options market last week, the implied volatility (IV) of various financial options mainly showed a slight rebound. The IV of STAR 50 options (IV = 27%) and ChiNext ETF options (IV = 21%) has rebounded to near the median of the past year. The IV of 50 and 300 options is currently in the range of 14% - 16%, and the IV of CSI 500 and CSI 1000 options is in the range of 20% - 23%. The position - to - call ratio (PCR) of most financial options is in the range of 75% - 110%, showing a slight decline compared to the previous week [2]. 3.3 Strategy Outlook - The market is expected to continue its oscillating pattern, and the implied volatility of financial options has rebounded. - It is advisable to hold indices with relatively reasonable valuations such as the CSI 300 and CSI A500. Since the IV of options has slightly declined, one can buy out - of - the - money call options of the corresponding indices with long - term expirations. - For the STAR 50 Index with large recent fluctuations and still relatively high static valuations, if holding the underlying assets, one can consider buying out - of - the - money put options or selling out - of - the - money call options to reduce exposure risks. If there are already substantial spot returns, one can consider taking profits on the spot and keeping a small amount of long - term call options to cope with the irrational rise of the market, such as the ChiNext Index. - The discount of the CSI 1000 - 2606 stock index futures has converged, and one can consider moving positions to the 2609 contract with a relatively high discount to form a covered call strategy of long - index and short - out - of - the - money call options [3]. 3.4 Market Overview of Each Option - The report provides detailed data on the closing prices, price changes, IV, IV changes, historical quantiles, option trading volumes, and position - to - call ratios of various options such as SSE 50ETF, CSI 300ETF, CSI 500ETF, ChiNext ETF, STAR 50ETF, etc., as well as the IV and skew index data of different periods for each option [5].

Employment Data Summary - In February, the U.S. non-farm payrolls decreased by 92,000, significantly below the market expectation of 55,000[4] - The average monthly job growth over the past three months is 6,000, down from 126,000 in January[4] - Private sector employment fell from 95,000 in January to -61,000 in February[4] Sector-Specific Impacts - The construction industry saw job losses of 11,000, while the leisure and hospitality sector lost 27,000 jobs in February[4] - Healthcare and education services employment dropped from 129,000 in January to -34,000 in February due to a strike involving 31,000 workers in California[4] - Manufacturing jobs decreased by 12,000, contributing to a total goods-producing job loss of 25,000[4] Wage and Unemployment Trends - Despite job losses, wages maintained a month-on-month growth rate of 0.4%, with a year-on-year increase from 3.7% in January to 3.8% in February[4] - The unemployment rate rose from 4.28% to 4.44%, exceeding the market expectation of 4.3%[4] - Labor force participation rate decreased by 0.4 percentage points to 62%[4] Federal Reserve Outlook - Due to the noisy employment data, it is anticipated that the Federal Reserve will not initiate rate cuts in the near term[4] - The Fed is expected to cut rates once by 25 basis points in June as a political gesture under the new chair[4] - The tightening of dollar liquidity is likely to increase as inflation expectations rise due to higher oil prices[4]

Employment Data - February non-farm employment decreased by 92,000, significantly below the expected increase of 55,000[2] - The unemployment rate rose to 4.4%, higher than both the expected and previous rate of 4.3%[2] - The labor force participation rate fell to 62.0%, below the expected and previous rate of 62.5%[3] Wage Growth - Average hourly earnings increased by 0.4% month-on-month, exceeding the expected growth of 0.3%[3] Sector Performance - Government sector employment decreased by 6,000, while the private sector saw declines in education and healthcare (-34,000) and leisure and hospitality (-27,000)[4] - Only a few sectors, such as finance (+10,000) and wholesale trade (+6,000), showed slight employment growth[4] Market Reactions - Following the non-farm report, U.S. stock markets declined, with the S&P 500, Nasdaq, and Dow Jones dropping by 1.33%, 1.59%, and 0.95% respectively[5] - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield fell by 0.77 basis points to 4.13%, while the dollar index decreased by 0.09% to 98.96[5] Interest Rate Expectations - Market expectations for a rate cut by the Federal Reserve increased, with the implied probability of a June rate cut rising from 37.8% to 56.7%[7] - The expected number of rate cuts for 2026 increased from 1.58 to 1.76[7] Economic Outlook - The labor market remains fragile, influenced by strikes, adverse weather, layoffs, and model adjustments, indicating a continued loosening process[2][8] - The true change in policy space is likely to occur after the May Federal Reserve chair transition, with potential for more significant rate cuts in the second half of the year[10]

Group 1 - The article highlights signs of improving liquidity in the market, with significant gains in the metals sector, including gold rising over 1% and silver over 2.3% [2][5] - A rebound in major stock indices was observed, with the Shanghai Composite Index up 0.25%, the Shenzhen Component up 0.8%, and the ChiNext Index up 0.85% [2] - The U.S. market also showed positive signals, with the leveraged loan index rising for two consecutive days and a notable increase in the overnight reverse repo scale by nearly $2 billion [3][5] Group 2 - The Federal Reserve's total assets expanded to $6.6289 trillion, an increase of $15 billion from the previous day, indicating a potential improvement in dollar liquidity [3] - Despite a gradual decline in the dollar's reserve share (approximately 57%), it remains the primary source of liquidity during crises, with recent geopolitical tensions in the Middle East reinforcing its safe-haven status [7] - International oil prices experienced a significant pullback after a recent surge, with WTI crude oil dropping nearly 3% [8]

Core Viewpoint - The recent appreciation of the RMB alongside a significant decline in Hong Kong stocks (especially the Hang Seng Technology Index) is counterintuitive, as historically, both have moved in the same direction due to shared macroeconomic variables. The current divergence is attributed to a combination of "tight USD liquidity + uncertain domestic fundamentals," compounded by unique factors driving RMB appreciation [2][4][14]. Group 1: Divergence Phenomenon - The RMB has appreciated from 6.95 to 6.86 since January 28, marking a cumulative increase of 1.3%, while the Hang Seng Technology Index has dropped from 5900 to 5138, reflecting a cumulative decline of 12.9% [16][17]. - This divergence contradicts market intuition, which typically associates RMB appreciation with foreign capital inflows and rising Hong Kong stocks [17]. Group 2: Theoretical Framework - The pricing of Hong Kong stocks and the RMB exchange rate is influenced by two core drivers: domestic fundamentals and USD liquidity. The pricing of Hong Kong stocks is primarily driven by earnings (aligned with domestic fundamentals) and valuation (dependent on USD liquidity) [5][18]. - Historical data indicates that these two core drivers often exhibit a consistent directional relationship, where improvements in domestic economic fundamentals typically rely on global financial conditions being accommodative [24]. Group 3: Conditions for Divergence - Two scenarios may lead to divergence between the RMB and Hong Kong stocks: 1. A divergence in the direction of domestic fundamentals and USD liquidity (e.g., tightening USD financial conditions while domestic fundamentals improve) [6][26]. 2. Unique factors influencing the RMB temporarily overshadowing the combined effects of fundamentals and liquidity [7][27]. Group 4: Historical Cases of Divergence - Since 2015, there have been five notable instances of divergence between the RMB and Hong Kong stocks, with only one instance of RMB appreciation coinciding with a decline in Hong Kong stocks [8][31]. - The common characteristics of these divergence periods suggest that when domestic fundamentals and USD liquidity move in opposite directions, Hong Kong stock performance is more influenced by liquidity, while the RMB remains anchored to domestic fundamentals [34]. Group 5: Focus on Current Divergence - The current divergence is similar to a previous instance where the RMB appreciated while Hong Kong stocks fell. In both cases, domestic PMI was relatively low, and USD financial conditions were tightening [39][44]. - The strong export performance has supported the RMB, while the Hong Kong stock market has faced downward pressure primarily due to valuation declines, despite a slight recovery in earnings [42][44].

Group 1: Macro Analysis - The recent appreciation of the RMB contrasts with the significant decline in Hong Kong stocks, particularly in the Hang Seng Tech Index, indicating a divergence that contradicts market intuition[2] - Historically, the RMB and Hong Kong stocks have moved in tandem due to shared macro pricing variables: domestic fundamentals and USD liquidity[3] - Current conditions show a combination of "tight USD liquidity + uncertain domestic fundamentals," leading to the RMB's appreciation driven by unique factors, such as seasonal export impulses[2][9] Group 2: Divergence Scenarios - Two scenarios can drive divergence between the RMB and Hong Kong stocks: a divergence in domestic fundamentals and USD liquidity, or unique factors temporarily dominating the RMB's movement[4] - The sensitivity of the RMB to domestic fundamentals contrasts with the greater sensitivity of Hong Kong stocks to valuation changes, particularly in liquidity-driven environments[4][8] Group 3: Historical Cases of Divergence - Since 2015, there have been five notable divergences between the RMB and Hong Kong stocks, with only one instance of RMB appreciation coinciding with a decline in Hong Kong stocks[5] - In the most recent divergence (February 2026), the RMB appreciated by 1.3% while the Hang Seng Tech Index fell by 12.9%[14] Group 4: Contributing Factors - The divergence is characterized by weak domestic PMI and tightening US financial conditions, which have led to a weak profit contribution for Hong Kong stocks while the RMB remains supported by strong exports[9][47] - During the divergence periods, valuation contributions to the Hang Seng Index averaged 14.3%, significantly higher than the 4.7% profit contribution, indicating a liquidity-driven market[8][40]

Group 1: Market Overview - The market fluctuated and rebounded last week, with major indices closing higher. The CSI 1000 Index led the gains with a weekly increase of 4.34%. Steel and non-ferrous metals sectors performed well, rising 12.27% and 9.77% respectively, while the media sector was weak, falling about 5.10%. Market focus was on geopolitical developments and changes in US dollar liquidity. The weekend air - strike by the US and Israel on Iran disturbed the geopolitical situation, causing significant increases in precious metals and crude oil, and raising market risk - aversion. In the short - term, the US dollar strengthened, but its upside was restricted by the yen. The RMB remained in a slightly strong and fluctuating pattern, supporting the stock index. Geopolitical changes and domestic policy signals should be continuously monitored [1] Group 2: Options Market - In the options market last week, the implied volatility (IV) of various financial options showed differentiation, mainly falling. Currently, the IV of the STAR 50 options (IV = 23%) and ChiNext ETF options (IV = 20%) has fallen below the median of the past year. The IV of 50 and 300 options is in the range of 11% - 13%, and the IV of CSI 500 and CSI 1000 options is in the range of 20% - 22%. The position PCR of most financial options is in the range of 80% - 110%, slightly rising from the previous week [2] Group 3: Strategy Outlook - The market may continue the slightly strong and fluctuating pattern, and the IV of some financial options has declined. Given that steel and non - ferrous metals sectors performed well last week while the media sector was weak, and considering that the current geopolitical situation disturbs market risk preference but the strong RMB exchange rate still supports the market, the medium - to - long - term market trend is expected to remain positive. Investors can continue to hold indices with relatively reasonable valuations, such as the SSE 50 and CSI 300. Since the current IV of options has slightly declined, they can also buy out - of - the - money long - term call options of the corresponding indices. For the STAR 50 Index, which has large recent fluctuations and still high static valuation, if holding the underlying assets, investors can consider buying out - of - the - money put options or selling out - of - the - money call options to reduce exposure risks. If significant spot returns have been accumulated, investors can consider taking profits on the spot and keeping a small amount of long - term call options to cope with irrational market rallies, such as for the ChiNext Index. The discount of the CSI 1000 - 2603 stock index futures has converged, and investors can consider rolling over to the 2606 contract, which still has a high discount, and continue to form a covered call strategy of long stock index and short out - of - the - money call option [3] Group 4: Market Data - The report provides a large amount of data on various financial products, including the closing price, price change rate, IV, IV change (daily), historical quantile, IV median of the past year, option trading volume, and position PCR of different underlying assets such as the SSE 50ETF, SSE 50 Index, SSE 300ETF, and others from February 24 - 27, 2026. It also shows the IV and related data of different months for each underlying asset, as well as the skew index of the main - contract months [4]