石油"站立硬币"倒向何方 20250908 摘要 OPEC 10 月增产后油价反升，表明基本面定价充分，未来需关注 OPEC 增产节奏、北美页岩油供给拐点及全球需求超预期等反转因素。 当前石油市场处于供给风险暂缓、增产压力突出、需求增长前景较差阶 段，价格已贴近边际成本交易，OPEC 4 月开始意外增产加剧过剩预期。 OPEC 通过多次加速增产，提前完成额外减产计划退出，理论上释放日 均配额 246 万吨，但实际增量有限，地缘政治风险是关键扰动因素。 受 OPEC 增产影响，2025 年石油市场或维持低价区间波动，但中长期 （2026 年）存在反转机会，需关注 OPEC 生产节奏、页岩油供给及需 求变化。 OPEC 宣布 10 月继续增产导致布伦特油价下跌，但实际供应增量存在不 确定性，部分 OPEC 国家剩余产能不足以完成计划。 年初以来石油市场现货供应过剩，三季度需求有所改善，但四季度至明 年上半年过剩压力或加重，需求侧增长面临压力，非 OPEC 海上新项目 集中投产。 美国页岩油新井钻探成本界限被触发，钻机数减少，旧井衰竭压力高， 页岩油增长压力累积，美国原油产量增长主要来自联邦海上新项目。 Q&A 近 ...

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook for OPEC+ with expectations of accelerated supply hikes in the coming months, suggesting a desire to regain market share [10]. Core Insights - OPEC+ is set to increase its quota by 411 thousand barrels per day (kbd) for July, with further hikes anticipated in August and September [2][3]. - The report highlights that while summer demand is expected to absorb these increases, a surplus is projected for the fourth quarter of 2025 due to deteriorating fundamentals [10]. - The analysis suggests that Saudi Arabia's oil policy is influenced by multiple factors, including managing overproduction by certain members and regaining market share from non-OPEC producers, particularly US shale [4][5]. Summary by Sections OPEC+ Supply Adjustments - OPEC+ confirmed a quota increase of 411 kbd for July, with expectations for additional hikes of 411 kbd in August and 274 kbd in September [2][3]. - The new scenario anticipates regular hikes from October to December, with voluntary cuts fully unwound by the end of 2025 [3]. Market Dynamics - The supply-demand model indicates a surplus of 0.3 million barrels per day (mbd) for 2026, an increase from previous estimates due to higher OPEC+ volumes [6]. - The market is expected to remain balanced in the second and third quarters as demand rises during the summer [6]. Refining Margins and Demand - Healthy refining margins suggest that oil demand is currently stable, although the impact of tariffs on consumption may become more apparent later in the year [7][63]. - The report notes that refinery closures in Europe and the US are supporting margins, despite potential future impacts from tariffs [63].