If we took a single 10-week strand of pricing data from Oracle (ORCL), the return during this period won’t tell us much about the performance probability of the other weeks. However, if we took hundreds of rolling 10-week sequences of ORCL stock and arranged them in a distribution, the most frequent, consistent performances would lead to bulges in probability mass. These bulges represent risk geometry, which allows us to make smarter decisions.Instead, we need to think in terms of probabilistic mass and ris ...

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve cut its key federal funds rate by 0.25% to a range of 3.5%-3.75%, with projections indicating only one more cut in 2026 due to slowing job growth and persistent inflation [1] - Following the interest rate cut, stocks surged, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 reaching six-week and five-week highs, respectively [1] Group 2 - In unusual options activity, the top 25 ETF put options by volume-to-open-interest ratios showed significant interest, particularly in the iShares 7-10 Year Treasury Bond ETF (IEF) and the iShares Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) [2] - Small-cap stocks, represented by IWM, have performed strongly, with an increase of 8.15% since November 21, and an 88% outperformance compared to the SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY) over the same period [2] Group 3 - IWM had three active put options with volume-to-open-interest ratios above 10, indicating notable trading activity despite a bearish put/call open interest ratio of 2.44 [3] - The Jan. 16/2026 $243 strike put option for IWM had a volume of 57,033, which is 14.02 times the open interest, highlighting significant market interest [4] Group 4 - The covered strangle strategy combines a Covered Call and a Cash-Secured Put, allowing traders to generate income while managing exposure to the underlying asset [5] - This strategy is not solely focused on income generation; it also provides a systematic approach to managing exposure, allowing for increased long exposure at lower prices if the underlying asset falls, or trimming exposure and realizing gains if it rises [6][7]

Core Insights - GraniteShares has launched two new ETFs, RTYY and HMYY, as part of its YieldBOOST™ family, aimed at providing investors with income opportunities in high-growth sectors of the equity market [1][5][6] Group 1: New ETF Launches - RTYY, the GraniteShares YieldBOOST™ RIOT ETF, focuses on Riot Platforms, Inc., a significant player in Bitcoin mining and digital infrastructure, utilizing options strategies to generate income [2][3] - HMYY, the GraniteShares YieldBOOST™ HIMS ETF, is linked to Hims & Hers Health, Inc., a telehealth platform, and employs a similar options strategy to generate income [2][4] Group 2: Investment Strategy - Both ETFs aim to generate income by selling put options on leveraged ETFs that track 2x daily price movements of their respective underlying companies [2][3][4] - The YieldBOOST™ platform applies systematic options strategies to leveraged ETFs, targeting innovative companies and emerging market themes [5][6] Group 3: Company Overview - GraniteShares is a global investment firm based in New York City, specializing in creating and managing ETFs, with a focus on alternative and innovative investment solutions [7][8] - As of November 28, 2025, GraniteShares has over $649.5 million in assets under management (AUM) for its YieldBOOST™ suite and manages a total of over $11.114 billion in AUM [6][8]

Market Volatility - Recent market volatility has decreased as the potential for more rate cuts is being digested, with the VIX Index closing at 17.24 after reaching a high of 28 earlier in November and briefly dropping below 16 this month [1] Long Straddle Strategy - A long straddle is an advanced options strategy aimed at profiting from significant price movements in either direction or an increase in implied volatility, requiring the purchase of both a call and a put option [2][6] - The maximum loss for this strategy is the total premiums paid for the call and put options, while the potential profit is theoretically unlimited, although daily losses may occur due to time decay if no significant price movement happens [3] Long Straddle Example - An example of a long straddle on KO involves buying a $72.50-strike call and a $72.50-strike put with a premium of $323, which represents a maximum loss, while the maximum profit remains theoretically unlimited [7] - The lower breakeven price for this trade is $69.27 and the upper breakeven price is $75.73, with the premium paid being 4.49% of the stock price and an estimated probability of profit at 44.2% [7]

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Core Insights - The article emphasizes the focus on growth and momentum stocks that are reasonably priced and expected to outperform the market in the long term [1] - It highlights a significant investment opportunity, noting that the S&P 500 increased by 367% and the Nasdaq by 685% from March 2009 to 2019, indicating a strong recovery from the financial crisis [1] Investment Strategy - The investment approach involves long-term investment in quality stocks, with the use of options as part of the strategy [1] - The article suggests that investors should consider high-quality growth stocks to enhance their investment returns [1] Market Context - The performance data provided serves as a historical context for potential future investments, illustrating the substantial gains that can be achieved in the stock market following a downturn [1]

Core Viewpoint - The stock market is experiencing increased volatility, with the Cboe Volatility Index rising above 20 for the first time since June, indicating a shift in market dynamics [1] Bond Market Insights - Bond volatility has also increased but remains relatively low; investors may consider a long straddle strategy in the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) to capitalize on potential price movements [1][2] - The iShares ETF is sensitive to yield changes and long-term credit conditions, making it a strategic choice for investors anticipating volatility [2] Options Strategy - Investors can establish a long straddle by purchasing both 90 call and 90 put options expiring on November 21, with the cost of this position being approximately $3.15 per contract, leading to a maximum loss of $315 if the fund closes at 90 on expiration [3] - Significant price movements in long-term bond yields could lead to substantial gains, with break-even prices at approximately 86.85 on the downside and 93.15 on the upside [4] Market Conditions - Long-term bond investors have faced challenges due to high inflation and rising global debt levels, which have led to a decline in the iShares fund's value by about 50% from 2020 to mid-2025 [5] - Recent fears of recession and early signs of labor market weakness have attracted buyers back to long-term bonds, with the ETF's shares rebounding from a low of 83.30 in late May and surpassing both 50-day and 200-day moving averages [6]

Group 1 - The article discusses a strategy that combines fundamental analysis with options trading to assess investment opportunities and risks, particularly in the context of Ethereum [1] - The investment approach includes various strategies such as income-oriented investments in Business Development Companies (BDCs) and utilities, growth at a reasonable price in technology, deep value based on discounted cash flow, and investments in dividend aristocrats [1] - The author emphasizes a long-term investment perspective while also employing 20-25 options strategies for purposes like hedging, bullish substitutes, neutral trades, trading volatility, and earnings-related trades [1] Group 2 - The author has a beneficial long position in Ethereum-related shares, indicating a personal investment interest in the asset [2] - The article is presented as a personal opinion without compensation from any company mentioned, highlighting the independence of the analysis [2]

Group 1: Market Overview - The S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 reached record highs, driven by positive sentiment around AI advancements [2] - Investors appear unconcerned about potential government shutdowns, focusing instead on market gains [3] Group 2: Intel's Stock Performance - Intel's stock has increased by 86% year-to-date in 2025, although it remains down 27% over the past five years [6] - In contrast, Nvidia's stock has surged by 1,347% during the same five-year period, highlighting Intel's struggles [6] Group 3: Options Strategy - A Covered Combination strategy is suggested for Intel investors, involving owning Intel stock while selling an out-of-the-money call and put with the same expiration date [7] - The specific call option discussed is the Oct. 31 $50 call, which has a high volume-to-open-interest ratio of 134.59, indicating bullish sentiment [5][6]

Core Viewpoint - The NEOS S&P 500 High Income ETF (SPYI) is positioned as an attractive investment option for income-seeking investors amid declining yields in traditional fixed-income securities, particularly following the Federal Reserve's recent rate cut [1][2][3]. Group 1: Market Context - The Federal Reserve cut the effective federal funds rate (EFFR) for the first time since 2024, leading to a favorable market reaction with a 1.42% increase since the announcement [1]. - Income investors are finding debt securities less appealing due to lower yields, prompting a shift towards equities for better returns [2]. - Market uncertainty persists, with inflation rising again, making future rate cuts uncertain despite a nearly 90% probability priced in for the next FOMC meeting [3]. Group 2: SPYI Overview - SPYI offers a high dividend yield of 11.67%, translating to an annual dividend of $6.15, with dividends paid monthly [5][6][7]. - The ETF employs an S&P 500 index fund options strategy, allowing for potential upside in rising markets while maintaining a reasonable expense ratio of 0.68% [6][7]. - Since its launch, SPYI has gained 8.46% while providing an average annual yield of 10% to 11%, and has increased nearly 23% since its all-time low on April 4 [8]. Group 3: Portfolio Composition - SPYI's top holdings reflect the S&P 500, focusing on technology, consumer discretionary, and communication services, with major allocations to companies like NVIDIA, Amazon, and Meta Platforms [10]. - The ETF prioritizes sectors such as semiconductors (27%), software (22%), media (17%), and specialty retail (16%), offering a diversified portfolio with over 500 holdings compared to around 125 for its competitor, JEPI [11]. Group 4: Tax Efficiency - SPYI's dividends are structured to be tax-efficient, with 60% of gains taxed at the long-term capital gains rate and 40% as return of capital, providing a tax advantage over many high-yield ETFs [12][13][14].