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PCR(看跌期权持仓量与看涨期权持仓量的比率)
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天胶期权不同组合策略的应用场景分析
Qi Huo Ri Bao Wang· 2025-11-17 02:01
Core Viewpoint - The natural rubber market is experiencing a phase of tight supply, leading to steady price increases, with optimistic market sentiment supporting further price growth [1][3]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - Global rubber production is expected to decrease in December due to seasonal factors, increasing reliance on imports in China [2]. - Weather conditions, including the La Niña phenomenon, are impacting rubber harvesting negatively, contributing to lower supply and profits for domestic producers [2]. Price Trends - International rubber prices are on the rise, with Thai rubber water priced at 56.6 THB/kg and cup rubber at 52.1 THB/kg, both near five-year highs [3]. - Domestic prices in Yunnan are also increasing, with rubber water at 14,100 CNY/ton and rubber blocks at 14,300 CNY/ton, reflecting a similar upward trend [3]. Consumption and Market Sentiment - The automotive sector is showing signs of recovery, with policies boosting sales and exports, particularly in the electric vehicle segment [4]. - Market sentiment is turning optimistic, as indicated by a decrease in the put-call ratio (PCR) to 46%, the lowest in three years, suggesting a bullish outlook on rubber prices [5][6]. Investment Strategies - Companies are advised against single-direction put options due to low success rates and high risks [7]. - Suggested strategies include covered call writing for steady income, long positions with protective puts for risk management, and bull spreads to control costs while maintaining a bullish stance [8].