PDH装置降负

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石油化工行业周报:PDH装置存在降负预期,丙烯盈利存在较好支撑-20250427
Shenwan Hongyuan Securities· 2025-04-27 13:17
Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the petrochemical industry, particularly regarding propylene profitability and the expected tightening of supply-demand dynamics [4][5]. Core Insights - The report highlights the anticipated reduction in operating rates for PDH units due to high costs associated with U.S. propane imports, which could lead to a significant drop in propylene supply [4][5]. - It emphasizes the potential for increased imports from Japan and South Korea, although these may not fully compensate for the domestic supply gap [4][5]. - The report suggests that the overall profitability of PDH units remains low, and future tariffs could delay or cancel planned new capacity [4][5]. Summary by Sections Upstream Sector - Brent crude oil prices closed at $66.87 per barrel, a decrease of 1.60% from the previous week, while WTI prices fell by 2.57% to $63.02 per barrel [4][22]. - U.S. commercial crude oil inventories increased by 244,000 barrels, while gasoline inventories decreased by 4.476 million barrels [25][22]. - The report notes a stable day rate for self-elevating drilling rigs, indicating a recovery trend in the oil service sector [4][22]. Refining Sector - The report indicates an increase in overseas refined oil crack spreads, with Singapore's refining margin rising to $10.75 per barrel [4][22]. - The profitability of domestic refining products is expected to improve gradually as economic recovery progresses [4][22]. Polyester Sector - PTA profitability has increased, while polyester filament profitability has decreased, indicating mixed performance within the polyester supply chain [4][22]. - The report suggests that the polyester industry may see improvements in the medium to long term as new capacity comes online [4][22]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on leading refining companies such as Hengli Petrochemical, Rongsheng Petrochemical, and Dongfang Shenghong due to favorable competitive dynamics [4][17]. - It also highlights the potential for valuation recovery in companies like Satellite Chemical and Tongkun Co., given the expected improvements in the industry [4][17].