Core Insights - Verisure, a leading security company in Europe, went public on October 8, 2023, with a market capitalization of €16.5 billion (approximately ¥136 billion), marking the largest IPO in Europe since 2022 and a significant exit for the private equity (PE) industry [3][5][10] - The company has demonstrated remarkable growth, with its valuation increasing by over €15 billion in 17 years, from €0.9 billion at the time of EQT's acquisition in 2008 to its current valuation [3][12] - Verisure's unique business model focuses on subscription services rather than hardware sales, resulting in a stable cash flow and high profitability, with an EBITDA margin of 45% and a gross margin of 75% [7][10] Business Model and Financial Performance - Verisure generates approximately €3 billion in annual subscription revenue from its 5.8 million customers, with an average subscription fee exceeding €500 per user per year [10][11] - The company has a low customer churn rate of 7.4%, with an average customer lifespan of 15 years, contributing to predictable cash flows [10][11] - In 2024, Verisure reported total revenue of €3.4 billion and an adjusted EBITDA of €1.5 billion, showcasing its strong financial performance [7][10] Historical Growth and Private Equity Involvement - Verisure was initially part of Securitas AB and became a standalone entity in 2006. It was acquired by EQT in 2008 for SEK 10.1 billion (approximately €0.9 billion) [12][13] - Under EQT's management, Verisure focused on operational improvements, leading to a doubling of its EBITDA over four years [13][14] - Subsequent ownership by Bain Capital and Hellman & Friedman (H&F) saw Verisure expand internationally, increasing its user base from 1.4 million in 2011 to 4 million by 2021 [14][18] Market Position and Competitive Advantage - Verisure holds a 25% market share in the European home security market, significantly outpacing its nearest competitor [18] - The company's emphasis on providing comprehensive, high-quality monitoring services differentiates it from competitors that primarily sell hardware [10][18] - Verisure's strategic acquisitions, such as the purchase of Arlo's European business, have enhanced its technological capabilities and market position [18] Future Outlook - The current valuation of Verisure may still be below H&F's expectations, as the company was valued at $17 billion in 2020 [21] - The stability of Verisure's cash flow allows for the potential use of higher leverage in future acquisitions, which could further enhance its growth prospects [19][21] - The success of Verisure serves as a benchmark for private equity investments, demonstrating the power of patient capital in achieving compounded growth over time [20]

Core Viewpoint - Starbucks is in the final negotiation stage for the sale of its China business, with private equity (PE) firms as the main candidates, indicating a strategic shift away from venture capital (VC) firms [6][10]. Group 1: Sale Process and Candidates - Starbucks has shortlisted several PE firms, including Hillhouse Capital, Carlyle Group, EQT, Sequoia China, and Primavera Capital, for the sale of its China business, with a decision expected by the end of October [6]. - Notably, major VC firms like Tencent and JD.com, which were rumored to be interested, did not make it to the final round, highlighting a preference for PE firms [6][7]. Group 2: Shareholding Structure - Starbucks plans to retain a 30% stake in its China operations, with the remaining 70% to be distributed among multiple buyers, ensuring no single buyer holds more than 30% [6][7]. - This structure allows Starbucks to maintain influence and flexibility in its operations while securing necessary funding and resources [6][7]. Group 3: Comparison with Competitors - The case of McDonald's, which successfully sold 80% of its China business in 2017, serves as a model for Starbucks, demonstrating how local partnerships can accelerate growth and enhance brand vitality [9][10]. - McDonald's saw significant expansion and improved profitability after introducing local capital, which could be a beneficial strategy for Starbucks as well [9][10]. Group 4: PE vs. VC Considerations - PE firms focus on financial returns and operational efficiency, making them a better fit for Starbucks, which aims to maintain its independent operational style [7][10]. - In contrast, VC firms often seek greater control for strategic alignment, which could conflict with Starbucks' goals [7][10]. Group 5: Market Dynamics - The high level of digitalization in the Chinese market, dominated by major internet platforms, poses risks for Starbucks if it were to partner with VC firms, potentially affecting its collaborations with other platforms [7][8]. - The performance of competitors like Tims China, which has struggled financially, further underscores the limited strategic benefits of VC involvement for Starbucks [8].