Workflow
PPI价格独立性
icon
Search documents
有独立于PPI的行业价格吗?
Huachuang Securities· 2025-11-05 08:33
Group 1: Industry Price Independence - There are relatively independent industries with a weight of approximately 24%, but their price elasticity is low, making it difficult to analyze and track their price trends from a macro perspective[2] - The majority of industry prices remain highly correlated with PPI trends, indicating that PPI cycles significantly impact nominal growth, corporate profits, and inflation expectations during the current phase of high-quality economic development[2] Group 2: Analysis Perspectives - The report analyzes industrial price independence from three perspectives: product usage (production vs. living materials), industrial classification (mining, manufacturing, utilities), and special classifications (high-tech manufacturing, equipment manufacturing, strategic emerging industries)[3] - In the perspective of production and living materials, food and clothing prices show relative independence from PPI, with food prices primarily sourced from the primary industry and clothing prices being more synchronized with consumer behavior[4] Group 3: Correlation and Weighting - Production materials account for approximately 75% of the weight, while living materials account for about 25%, with food, clothing, general daily necessities, and durable goods having respective weights of 8%, 3%, 6%, and 8%[4] - Among 39 major industries analyzed, 9 industries are relatively independent, accounting for about 10.4% of the total, including instruments, clothing, pharmaceuticals, and tobacco products[5] Group 4: Price Trends and Fluctuations - Prices of relatively independent industries have fluctuated between 0% and 4% from 2014 to Q3 2023, with a recent decline to the range of -1% to 0% since Q4 2023[5] - In the analysis of 198 sub-industries, 78 are found to be relatively independent, representing about 24% of the total, with significant government influence in pricing and specific industry policies affecting these sectors[7]