1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report The current PVC market is characterized by strong supply, weak demand, and high valuations, resulting in poor fundamentals. In the short term, it is recommended to wait and see, following the fluctuations of the black market sentiment. In the medium term, if there is no policy for phasing out old production facilities, the supply - demand pattern will remain weak, and the industry may face pressure to reduce valuations to clear excess capacity. The situation depends on whether exports can exceed expectations to reverse the domestic inventory accumulation pattern [11]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Week - on - Week Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Cost and Profit**: The price of Wuhai calcium carbide was reported at 2,275 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 65 yuan/ton; the price of Shandong calcium carbide was reported at 2,780 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous week; the price of medium - grade semi - coke in Shaanxi was 620 yuan/ton, also unchanged. The comprehensive integrated profit of chlor - alkali has recovered, while the profit from ethylene - based production has slightly declined, and currently, the valuation support is weak [11]. - **Supply**: The PVC capacity utilization rate was 80.3%, a 0.9% increase from the previous week. Among them, the utilization rate of calcium carbide - based production was 80%, a 1.3% increase, and that of ethylene - based production was 81.3%, a 0.2% decrease. The supply load increased slightly last week, mainly due to the increased production of Zhongtai Fukang and Fujian Wanhua. It is expected to decline next week. In August, the maintenance volume decreased, and new facilities are gradually releasing production, increasing supply pressure [11]. - **Demand**: In terms of exports, India's anti - dumping policy has been extended to the end of September, alleviating the weak export pressure in the third quarter, with expectations of a rush to export at the end of the rainy season. The operating rates of the three major downstream industries remained stable last week. The pipe load was 33%, a 0.9% increase; the film load was 72.9%, a 4% decrease; the profile load was 36.9%, unchanged. The overall downstream load was 42.8%, a 0.1% decrease. The overall downstream operating rate remained stable week - on - week but was still weak year - on - year. Last week, the PVC pre - sales volume was 79.1 tons, a decrease of 4.1 tons from the previous week [11]. - **Inventory**: Last week, the in - factory inventory was 32.7 tons, a decrease of 1 ton; the social inventory was 81.2 tons, an increase of 3.5 tons; the overall inventory was 113.8 tons, an increase of 2.5 tons; the number of warehouse receipts increased. Currently, it has entered the inventory accumulation cycle, with upstream inventory gradually shifting to the mid - stream. In the context of strong supply and weak demand, inventory accumulation will continue if there is no better - than - expected performance in exports [11]. - **Summary**: Fundamentally, the comprehensive profit of enterprises is at a high level this year, with significant valuation pressure. There is less maintenance, and production is at a historical high. In the short term, multiple facilities are being put into operation. On the downstream side, the domestic operating rate is at a five - year low. In terms of exports, India's anti - dumping policy has been extended, and there may be a rush to export at the end of the rainy season. The cost of calcium carbide has declined, while caustic soda has rebounded, further weakening the overall valuation support. In the medium term, it is continuously suppressed by the significant increase in production capacity and the continuous decline in real estate demand, deteriorating the industry pattern. It depends on export growth or the implementation of policies to phase out old facilities to consume the domestic excess capacity [11]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market No specific text content for analysis, only some charts about PVC term structure, spot price, basis, spreads, trading volume, and open interest are provided [19][24][26]. 3.3 Profit and Inventory - **Inventory**: The overall inventory is in an accumulation cycle. Last week, the in - factory inventory decreased by 1 ton to 32.7 tons, while the social inventory increased by 3.5 tons to 81.2 tons, and the overall inventory increased by 2.5 tons to 113.8 tons. The number of warehouse receipts also increased [11]. 3.4 Cost Side The cost side shows that calcium carbide prices have declined, and inventory has significantly accumulated. The price of Wuhai calcium carbide decreased by 65 yuan/ton week - on - week, while the price of Shandong calcium carbide remained unchanged, and the price of medium - grade semi - coke in Shaanxi also remained stable [11][43]. 3.5 Supply Side - **Capacity Expansion**: In 2025, there is a large - scale capacity expansion in the PVC industry, mainly concentrated in the third quarter. A total of 250 tons/year of new capacity is expected to be put into operation, including projects from companies such as Xinpu Chemical, Jintai Chemical, and Wanhua Chemical (Phase II) [54][59]. - **Capacity Utilization**: The current PVC capacity utilization rate is 80.3%, with the calcium carbide - based production utilization rate at 80% and the ethylene - based production utilization rate at 81.3%. The supply load increased slightly last week but is expected to decline next week [11]. 3.6 Demand Side - **Domestic Demand**: The operating rates of the three major downstream industries remained stable last week, but the overall downstream operating rate was still weak year - on - year. The pipe load increased by 0.9% to 33%, the film load decreased by 4% to 72.9%, and the profile load remained unchanged at 36.9%. The overall downstream load decreased by 0.1% to 42.8% [11]. - **Export Demand**: India's anti - dumping policy has been extended to the end of September, alleviating the weak export pressure in the third quarter, with expectations of a rush to export at the end of the rainy season. Last week, the PVC pre - sales volume decreased by 4.1 tons to 79.1 tons [11].