Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The PVC market is experiencing a downward trend with high volatility. Given the complex situation in the Middle East and the large price fluctuations, it is recommended to wait and see for now [1]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - The calcium carbide price in the upstream northwest region is stable. The PVC operating rate increased by 0.80 percentage points to 80.90%, which is at a moderately high level in recent years. After the Spring Festival, the average downstream operating rate of PVC rose by 4.30 percentage points to 45.96%, 1.21 percentage points lower than the same period last year. Some overseas device loads decreased, and export prices increased. The social inventory increased slightly again and remains high. The real estate market is still in the adjustment phase, and the improvement needs time. The PVC industry has an anti - involution expectation, and there is an expectation of reduced supply if the Strait of Hormuz does not resume navigation. However, downstream orders are not ideal, the decline in the operating rate of ethylene - based devices is not significant, and the futures warehouse receipts are relatively high year - on - year, putting pressure on the spot market [1]. Futures and Spot Market - The PVC2605 contract decreased in position and fluctuated downward, with a minimum price of 5313 yuan/ton, a maximum price of 5540 yuan/ton, and a final closing price of 5353 yuan/ton, below the 20 - day moving average, with a decline of 5.39%. The position decreased by 8552 lots to 717353 lots [2]. - On March 31, the mainstream price of calcium carbide - based PVC in East China dropped to 5300 yuan/ton. The closing price of the V2605 contract futures was 5353 yuan/ton. The current basis was - 53 yuan/ton, strengthening by 39 yuan/ton, and the basis was at a moderately low level [3]. Fundamental Tracking - On the supply side, Yantai Wanhua ended maintenance, Guangxi Huayi resumed full production, and the operating loads of Shaanxi Jintai, Henan Lianchuang, etc. increased. The PVC operating rate increased by 0.80 percentage points to 80.90%, at a moderately high level in recent years. New production capacities such as Wanhua Chemical (500,000 tons/year), Tianjin Bohua (400,000 tons/year), Qingdao Gulf (200,000 tons/year), and Gansu Yaowang (300,000 tons/year) were put into production in the second half of 2025. Jiaxing Jiahua (300,000 tons/year) started trial production in December 2025 [4]. - On the demand side, the real estate market is still in the adjustment phase. From January to February 2026, the national real estate development investment was 961.2 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 11.1%. The sales area of commercial housing was 92.93 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 13.5%; the sales area of residential housing decreased by 15.9%. The sales volume of commercial housing was 818.6 billion yuan, a decrease of 20.2%, and the sales volume of residential housing decreased by 21.8%. The newly started area of housing was 50.84 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 23.1%; the newly started area of residential housing was 36.95 million square meters, a decrease of 23.3%. The construction area of real estate development enterprises was 5.35372 billion square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 11.7%. The completed area of housing was 63.2 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 27.9%; the completed area of residential housing was 46.25 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 26.9%. As of the week of March 29, the transaction area of commercial housing in 30 large and medium - sized cities increased by 25.46% week - on - week. After the fifth week of the Spring Festival, the transaction of commercial housing continued to increase week - on - week but remained at a relatively low level in the same period over the years [5]. - In terms of inventory, as of the week of March 26, the PVC social inventory increased by 0.20% to 1.374 million tons, 70.63% higher than the same period last year. The social inventory increased slightly again and remains high [6].