投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】31号 【PVC 周报（PVC ）】 出口价格拉涨，盘面突破新高 国贸期货 能源化工研究中心 2026-02-02 叶海文 从业资格证号：F3071622 投资咨询证号：Z0014205 张国才 从业资格证号：F03133773 本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议；期市有风险，投资需谨慎 01 PART ONE 主要观点及策略概述 PVC周度数据 | | | | | | PVC主要周度数据汇总 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 主要数据 | 最 新 | 上 周 | 涨 跌（幅） | | 主要数据 | 最 新 | 上 周 | 涨 跌（幅） | | | 主力价格（元/吨) | 5063 00 . | 4921 00 . | 2 89% . | | 中国产量(万吨) | 48 21 . | 48 75 . | -1 11% . | | | 近月价格 | 4790 00 . | 4658 00 . | 2 83% . | ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment view indicates that the short - term PVC has no obvious driving force and is expected to fluctuate mainly, with a trading strategy of "Unilateral: Sell on rallies; Arbitrage: None" [3] 2. Core View of the Report - The macro - sentiment has subsided, and the PVC market is in a bottom - oscillating state. The supply - demand fundamentals have not improved, with high overall supply, weak domestic and foreign demand, and inventory accumulation pressure. Meanwhile, the profit of two - process PVC has increased, but the export has declined [3][6] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Main Views and Strategy Overview - **Supply**: It is bearish. The domestic PVC spot market has made narrow adjustments, with the supply - demand pattern remaining oversupplied. The PVC supply has slightly increased due to maintenance, and the production capacity utilization rate of PVC production enterprises has risen. The maintenance loss has also increased [3] - **Demand**: It is bearish. The downstream demand has slightly improved, but the downstream start - up is still at a low level. The start - up rates of PVC pipe and profile enterprises have increased to some extent, and the capacity utilization rate of PVC gloves is stable. However, the current export has declined [3] - **Inventory**: It is neutral. As of October 9, the inventory - production days of Chinese PVC production enterprises' factory warehouses have increased, and the social inventory has also increased [3] - **Basis**: It is neutral. After the holiday, the futures price has decreased, and the basis has strengthened significantly, currently at 5 yuan/ton [3] - **Profit**: It is bullish. The profits of two - process PVC have increased this week. The cost of the calcium carbide method has decreased, and the comprehensive profit loss of the ethylene method has improved [3] - **Valuation**: It is neutral. The macro - sentiment has temporarily subsided, the market is oscillating weakly, and the valuation is neutral [3] - **Macro Policy**: It is neutral. The anti - involution sentiment in the energy - chemical sector has temporarily subsided, but there will be many subsequent macro - events [3] 3.2 Futures and Spot Market Review - **Market Trend**: After the holiday, the domestic PVC market has declined weakly, with the spot market price in the East China region being weakly adjusted. The supply - demand fundamentals have not improved, and there is inventory accumulation pressure [6] - **Price Spread**: The price spread has widened, and PVC maintains a contango structure [9] 3.3 PVC Supply - Demand Fundamental Data - **Production Area Output**: After the maintenance, the output in the Northwest region has rebounded [37] - **Domestic Inventory**: The factory - warehouse inventory has been destocked, while the social inventory has been accumulated. Factories in various regions have destocked [47][57] - **Downstream Start - up**: The average downstream start - up rate, the start - up rates of pipes and profiles have fluctuated [73] - **Export**: The export peak season is approaching, but the export has slowed down. There is still profit space for PVC exports, but it is difficult to increase the export volume due to the impact of India's anti - dumping policy and increased export competition pressure [81][83]