1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment view indicates that the short - term PVC has no obvious driving force and is expected to fluctuate mainly, with a trading strategy of "Unilateral: Sell on rallies; Arbitrage: None" [3] 2. Core View of the Report - The macro - sentiment has subsided, and the PVC market is in a bottom - oscillating state. The supply - demand fundamentals have not improved, with high overall supply, weak domestic and foreign demand, and inventory accumulation pressure. Meanwhile, the profit of two - process PVC has increased, but the export has declined [3][6] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Main Views and Strategy Overview - **Supply**: It is bearish. The domestic PVC spot market has made narrow adjustments, with the supply - demand pattern remaining oversupplied. The PVC supply has slightly increased due to maintenance, and the production capacity utilization rate of PVC production enterprises has risen. The maintenance loss has also increased [3] - **Demand**: It is bearish. The downstream demand has slightly improved, but the downstream start - up is still at a low level. The start - up rates of PVC pipe and profile enterprises have increased to some extent, and the capacity utilization rate of PVC gloves is stable. However, the current export has declined [3] - **Inventory**: It is neutral. As of October 9, the inventory - production days of Chinese PVC production enterprises' factory warehouses have increased, and the social inventory has also increased [3] - **Basis**: It is neutral. After the holiday, the futures price has decreased, and the basis has strengthened significantly, currently at 5 yuan/ton [3] - **Profit**: It is bullish. The profits of two - process PVC have increased this week. The cost of the calcium carbide method has decreased, and the comprehensive profit loss of the ethylene method has improved [3] - **Valuation**: It is neutral. The macro - sentiment has temporarily subsided, the market is oscillating weakly, and the valuation is neutral [3] - **Macro Policy**: It is neutral. The anti - involution sentiment in the energy - chemical sector has temporarily subsided, but there will be many subsequent macro - events [3] 3.2 Futures and Spot Market Review - **Market Trend**: After the holiday, the domestic PVC market has declined weakly, with the spot market price in the East China region being weakly adjusted. The supply - demand fundamentals have not improved, and there is inventory accumulation pressure [6] - **Price Spread**: The price spread has widened, and PVC maintains a contango structure [9] 3.3 PVC Supply - Demand Fundamental Data - **Production Area Output**: After the maintenance, the output in the Northwest region has rebounded [37] - **Domestic Inventory**: The factory - warehouse inventory has been destocked, while the social inventory has been accumulated. Factories in various regions have destocked [47][57] - **Downstream Start - up**: The average downstream start - up rate, the start - up rates of pipes and profiles have fluctuated [73] - **Export**: The export peak season is approaching, but the export has slowed down. There is still profit space for PVC exports, but it is difficult to increase the export volume due to the impact of India's anti - dumping policy and increased export competition pressure [81][83]