Core Viewpoint - The PVC market is expected to experience low-level fluctuations in the near term, with recommendations to short-sell during high points [1] Supply and Demand Dynamics - Upstream calcium carbide prices remain stable, while PVC operating rates decreased by 0.53 percentage points to 78.09%, which is relatively high for this time of year [1] - Downstream operations continue to decline slightly, with cautious procurement observed [1] - Social inventory has increased slightly but remains at a high level, indicating significant inventory pressure [1] Policy and Market Influences - India's BIS policy has been postponed for six months until December 24, 2025, which may impact PVC exports from China due to the upcoming rainy season and anti-dumping measures [1] - Taiwan's Formosa Plastics raised its July prices by $10 to $25 per ton, but high-priced exports are facing challenges [1] Real Estate Sector Impact - Real estate data showed slight improvement from January to May 2025, but year-on-year figures remain negative, with significant declines in investment, sales, and completed area [1] - The weekly transaction area of commercial housing in 30 major cities has rebounded but is at the lowest level for the same period in previous years, indicating that real estate recovery will take time [1] Price Trends and Futures Market - In June, PVC maintenance increased, leading to slightly higher operating rates, but weak support from calcium carbide prices and lack of substantial demand keep PVC under pressure [1] - The PVC 2509 futures contract saw a downward trend with a minimum price of 4807 yuan/ton and a closing price of 4821 yuan/ton, reflecting a decline of 2.09% [1] - As of July 1, the mainstream price of calcium carbide method PVC in East China dropped to 4720 yuan/ton, with a basis of -101 yuan/ton, indicating a low level [1]