虽然美国30年期固定利率合约利率小幅降至 6.43%，但前一周的大幅上涨已足以让潜在购房者和有意锁 定较低借贷成本的房主感到恐慌。这阻碍了房地产市场的早期复苏，并有可能延长市场长达数年的低迷 状态。 这项 MBA 调查自 1990 年起每周进行一次，其数据来源包括抵押贷款银行家、商业银行和储蓄机构。 这些数据涵盖了美国所有零售住房抵押贷款申请的 75%以上。 智通财经APP获悉，美国购房贷款申请以及房屋再融资贷款申请均连续第二周出现下降，这标志着此前 被视为美国房地产市场复苏迹象的这一积极信号已迅速逆转。美国抵押贷款银行家协会(MBA)的房屋购 买申请指数在截至 10 月 3 日的一周内下降了 1.2%，而再融资指数则下降了 7.7%。这两项指标均回落 至 9 月初的水平，当时抵押贷款利率正朝着一年来的最低点迈进。综合这两项指标得出的数值在上周暴 跌 12.7% 后，本周又下跌了 4.7%，这是自 4 月以来连续两日跌幅最大的一次。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The second-hand housing market is experiencing a significant decline in both volume and price due to a sluggish real estate market, leading to an increase in listings across various cities in China [1][3]. Group 1: Market Trends - The surge in second-hand housing listings has resulted in a supply-demand imbalance, making it increasingly difficult to sell these properties [3]. - Major cities such as Beijing, Shenzhen, and Chongqing have seen listings exceed 100,000 to 200,000 units, indicating a substantial increase in market supply [1]. Group 2: Comparative Analysis - Despite the challenges in selling second-hand homes, they are still considered a better investment compared to new homes due to lower prices and established infrastructure [3][4]. - Many second-hand homes are now priced below new constructions, making them more attractive to buyers [3]. Group 3: Purchase Recommendations - It is advised to avoid purchasing second-hand homes that are over 20 years old due to various issues such as poor living conditions, inadequate property management, and difficulties in securing loans [4][6]. - Older properties often suffer from significant wear and tear, leading to a decline in living quality and potential safety hazards [6][8].

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese real estate market is experiencing a paradox where prices are declining significantly while government and financial institutions are continuously implementing measures to stimulate the market, yet these efforts have not yielded the expected results [1][3]. Group 1: Market Trends - The average decline in housing prices across the country has exceeded 30% [1]. - The government's measures include the removal of purchase restrictions in most areas and lowering mortgage rates and down payment ratios to historical lows [1]. - Despite these efforts, the anticipated recovery in the real estate market has not materialized [1]. Group 2: Challenges Ahead - Local governments are facing a significant drop in land transfer revenue, which fell to 2.85 trillion yuan in the first half of 2025, a year-on-year decrease of approximately 19.7% [5]. - Real estate companies are under pressure to sell off inventory, with a looming debt maturity peak of about 1.2 trillion yuan from late 2025 to 2026, raising concerns about potential bankruptcies [5][6]. - The non-performing loan rate for personal housing loans reached 0.7% in Q2 2025, an increase of 0.2 percentage points from the end of 2024 [6]. - The non-performing loan rate for real estate development loans was as high as 6.3% in the first half of 2025, up 1.5 percentage points from the beginning of the year [6]. Group 3: Price Adjustments and Market Dynamics - The long-term downward trend in housing prices is evident, with examples such as a property purchased for 4 million yuan in 2021 now valued at 2.56 million yuan [8]. - There is a trend of price declines in second and third-tier cities slowing down, while first-tier cities are beginning to experience similar declines [8]. - If the market does not stabilize, downward pressure on housing prices is expected to increase, aligning prices with local income levels and returning to their fundamental residential attributes [8].

Core Insights - Goldman Sachs predicts that the current decline in China's real estate market, which began in 2021, has only completed 40% of its total expected drop, with an additional 60% decline anticipated before reaching the bottom by the end of 2027 [5][6][18] Market Analysis - The report evaluates the current state of the Chinese real estate market by comparing it to historical global real estate crashes, forecasting a potential further decline of 10% in property prices [6][9] - Since the peak in Q4 2021, Chinese property prices have already dropped by 20%, and the market is expected to follow a typical crash pattern, indicating a prolonged downturn [6][14] Supply and Demand Dynamics - The current oversupply in the housing market is significant, with a reported 750 million square meters of unsold residential properties, suggesting that it could take two to three years to digest the existing inventory [7][9] - The demographic shift indicates a decrease in the primary home-buying age group (25-39 years), with a projected reduction of 42 million individuals by 2027, leading to diminished demand [7][9] Financial Strain on Consumers - The household debt-to-GDP ratio has reached 63.5%, comparable to developed nations, with housing affordability becoming a critical issue, particularly in major cities like Beijing and Shanghai where the price-to-income ratio exceeds 12 times [7][9] Policy Response and Market Stability - Despite numerous government measures aimed at stabilizing the housing market, such as lowering down payment ratios and interest rates, the fundamental issues of population decline, high inventory, and elevated debt levels remain unresolved [9][11] - The government's approach has shifted from attempting to boost prices to merely preventing a rapid decline, indicating a more cautious stance in policy implementation [9][11] Regional Variations - Different cities are experiencing varying degrees of impact, with first-tier cities expected to stabilize by late 2025 after a cumulative drop of up to 20%, while second-tier cities may see declines of up to 25% [14][16] - In contrast, third and fourth-tier cities are facing severe challenges, with potential price drops of 40% or more, making recovery to 2021 peak prices unlikely [14][16] Future Outlook - The real estate sector is anticipated to see a more pronounced recovery by 2026, contingent upon successful debt restructuring and improved market confidence [6][9] - Investors are expected to reassess valuations post-debt resolution and inventory clearance, with a gradual normalization of credit conditions benefiting leading private developers [6][9]

Core Viewpoint - The phenomenon of "shrinking cities" in China has gained attention as urbanization enters a new phase, characterized by population decline and economic restructuring, necessitating targeted development strategies and policy recommendations for sustainable urban development [1][48]. Group 1: Definition and Identification of Shrinking Cities - Shrinking cities are defined as urban areas experiencing sustained population loss and structural economic crises, requiring a multi-dimensional understanding [3][6]. - Identification standards for shrinking cities include a continuous decline in urban population over three years, economic growth below the national average, and mismatched urban expansion and population growth [7][10]. Group 2: Characteristics and Distribution of Shrinking Cities - There are 139 identified shrinking cities in China, with significant concentrations in the Northeast, particularly in Heilongjiang, where 12 out of 13 cities are classified as shrinking [10][11]. - Shrinking cities exhibit a paradox of spatial expansion despite population decline, with 93.03% of these cities still expanding their built-up areas [35][36]. Group 3: Causes of Shrinking Cities - Macro factors contributing to shrinking cities include population aging, low birth rates, and regional development imbalances, leading to resource and talent concentration in coastal areas [17][19]. - Micro factors include population outflow, a decline in job opportunities, and a stagnant real estate market, exacerbating the shrinking phenomenon [27][29]. Group 4: Transformation Paths for Shrinking Cities - Strategies for transformation include "smart shrinkage," focusing on quality and efficiency rather than mere expansion, optimizing urban space, and developing new industries [38][39]. - Specific development paths for resource-dependent cities involve leveraging local resources for new industries, while cultural tourism and ecological cities are emerging as viable options for others [40][41]. Group 5: Policy Responses - National policies emphasize the need for "smart shrinkage" strategies, optimizing administrative divisions, and avoiding blind expansion to enhance urban quality and competitiveness [43][44]. - Future policy recommendations include establishing monitoring mechanisms for shrinking cities, implementing differentiated support policies, and promoting regional collaboration for resource sharing [46][47].

格隆汇8月29日丨宝新置地(00299.HK)发布公告，截至2025年6月30日止六个月，集团营业额达约 57,377,000港元，较去年同期大幅减少约87.4%。营业额大幅减少主要是由于中国房地产市场长期低迷 所致。集团本期间录得亏损净额约241,770,000港元，而上年同期则录得亏损净额约1,569,918,000港元。 ...

Core Viewpoint - Baoxin Land (00299) reported a significant decline in revenue and a narrowed loss for the first half of 2025, primarily due to the prolonged downturn in the Chinese real estate market [1] Financial Performance - Revenue for the period was HKD 57.377 million, representing a year-on-year decrease of 87.39% [1] - The loss attributable to shareholders was approximately HKD 166.7 million, which is a year-on-year reduction of 86.22% [1] - Loss per share was HKD 0.15328 [1] Reasons for Performance - The substantial decrease in revenue was mainly attributed to the long-term slump in the Chinese real estate market [1] - The net loss was significantly impacted by inventory write-downs, leading to a gross loss of approximately HKD 7.169 million, which is a decrease of about HKD 107.6 million compared to the same period last year [1] - The group also faced a fair value loss of approximately HKD 56.413 million on investment properties during the period [1] - Additionally, there was a recognized impairment loss of approximately HKD 65.392 million related to prepayments for a land redevelopment project [1]

Core Viewpoint - The company has shown resilience in sales despite a challenging market, with a focus on inventory reduction and strategic land acquisition, while maintaining a stable financial position and financing channels [2][3][22]. Sales Performance - In the first half of 2025, the company achieved a contract sales amount of 122.2 billion, with a sales area of 5.35 million square meters, representing a year-on-year decrease of 3.4% and 9.5% respectively [2][4]. - The construction business recorded a sales amount of 41.9 billion, showing a year-on-year growth of 1.9%, contributing 34.3% to total sales [2][4]. - The sales target completion rate for self-invested projects reached 53.6%, indicating a strong cash flow with a collection rate of 96% [4][6]. Inventory Management - The company has made progress in inventory reduction, with 19 billion of inventory from 2021 and earlier being liquidated, resulting in a decrease in the proportion of completed unsold properties to 14.9% [6][8]. - The average liquidation rate for the first half of the year was 48%, with a target of 45% for the second half to meet the annual goal of 160 billion for self-invested projects [6][8]. Land Acquisition and Development - The company acquired 35 new land parcels with a total area of 3.55 million square meters, a year-on-year increase of 172%, with a new value of 90.7 billion [7][12]. - The land acquisition sales ratio increased to 0.67, indicating a significant increase in land acquisition efforts [7][10]. - The expected sales conversion rate for new projects in 2025 is 55%, which could contribute approximately 50 billion in sales [12][16]. Financial Performance - Total revenue for the first half of 2025 was 53.37 billion, a decrease of 23.3% year-on-year, with recognized revenue of 49.65 billion, down 22.1% [17][27]. - The comprehensive gross margin was 13.4%, a slight increase of 0.3 percentage points, while the net profit margin decreased by 2.5 percentage points to 2.3% [20][27]. - The company issued 7.711 billion in domestic bonds, with an average cost of 4%, and maintained a stable financial condition with a cash coverage ratio of 1.7 times for short-term debts [22][23].

Core Insights - The implementation of new regulations in South Korea is expected to drastically reduce offshore property purchases by foreigners to nearly zero in the coming year [1] - A global trend is emerging where many countries are tightening restrictions on foreign buyers, with notable examples including Australia, Spain, and Japan [1][7] - Conversely, some countries like New Zealand and Saudi Arabia are considering easing restrictions to attract foreign investment [9] Summary by Category Regulatory Changes - South Korea's new policy requires foreign buyers to obtain local government approval and mandates actual residency for at least two years after purchase [1][8] - Australia has banned foreign investors from purchasing completed residential properties until March 2027 [1] - Spain proposed a 100% property tax on non-EU buyers who do not reside in the country, effective from 2025 [7] Market Trends - The global real estate market is experiencing a downturn, with the U.S. housing market index falling to 32, indicating low builder confidence [4] - In the UK, average house prices have dropped for three consecutive months, with London experiencing a 2.6% decline in August [4] - New Zealand's property prices have decreased for four months, with a 0.2% drop in July [6] Regional Insights - In South Korea, all regions except for Seoul and its surrounding areas are expected to see a decline in property prices by mid-2025 [5] - The U.S. and other major markets are facing a decline in transaction volumes, with ongoing housing supply shortages expected to drive cross-border capital investment [6] Foreign Buyer Dynamics - The new regulations in South Korea are aimed at curbing speculative buying by non-resident foreigners, which is expected to benefit local buyers [8] - In Japan, rising property prices have led to political discussions about restricting foreign purchases, with proposals for an "empty house tax" to deter speculative investments [8] Investment Opportunities - Despite tightening regulations, there is an increase in inquiries from international buyers, particularly from Asia, indicating potential demand for properties in South Korea [10] - Saudi Arabia's new policy will allow foreign buyers to purchase property in designated areas starting January 2026, with significant investment incentives [9]

【财华社讯】宝新置地(00299.HK)公布，预计截至2025年6月30日止六个月将录得净亏损不多于2.45亿 港元，而2024年同期则录得净亏损约15.7亿港元。预期净亏损主要由于中国房地产市场长期低迷，导致 营业额大幅下降；投资物业公平值下降；及期內为一个土地重建项目的拆迁工程预付款项及其他按金的 减值损失所致。 本文源自：财华网 ...