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PX&PTA&PR早评-20250923
Hong Yuan Qi Huo· 2025-09-23 05:31
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report gives a negative view on PX, PTA, and PR, with a view score of -1 for each [3]. 2. Core View - The report predicts that PX, PTA, and PR will operate weakly [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Price Information - **Upstream**: On September 22, 2025, the prices of WTI crude oil, Brent crude oil, naphtha, xylene, and PX all declined. For example, the futures settlement price of WTI crude oil was $62.28 per barrel, down 0.64% from the previous value [1]. - **PTA**: The closing and settlement prices of CZCE TA's main and near - month contracts, as well as the domestic and index prices of PTA, decreased. The CCFEI price index of PTA's outer - plate dropped 1.29% to $610 per ton on September 19 [1]. - **PX**: The closing and settlement prices of CZCE PX's main and near - month contracts mostly declined, while the domestic spot price of PX remained unchanged. The PXN and PX - MX spreads also decreased [1]. - **PR**: The closing and settlement prices of CZCE PR's main and near - month contracts declined. The market prices of polyester bottle - chips in the East China and South China markets decreased [1]. - **Downstream**: The CCFEI price indices of various polyester products such as polyester DTY, POY, FDY, short - fiber, and slices all declined [2]. Spread and Basis - The near - far month spread of PTA increased by 2 yuan/ton to - 34 yuan/ton, and the basis decreased by 22 yuan/ton to - 71 yuan/ton. The basis of PX increased by 2 yuan/ton to - 17 yuan/ton. The basis of PR in the East China market decreased by 14 yuan/ton to - 16 yuan/ton, and in the South China market increased by 6 yuan/ton to 84 yuan/ton [1]. Operating Rate and Sales Rate - The operating rate of the PX in the polyester industry chain remained unchanged at 85.57%. The PTA factory's load rate decreased by 1.43 percentage points to 76.82%, while the polyester factory, bottle - chip factory, and Jiangsu - Zhejiang loom load rates remained unchanged. The sales rate of polyester filament increased by 14.44 percentage points to 57.68%, the sales rate of polyester short - fiber decreased by 2.28 percentage points to 48.81%, and the sales rate of polyester slices increased by 11.62 percentage points to 64.30% [1]. Device Information - A 700,000 - ton PX device in the Northeast has been under maintenance since September 18, with an expected maintenance period of about 45 days [2]. Important News and Logic - **PX**: Trump called on European countries to stop buying Russian oil, but without new positive news, oil prices were weak. The cost of PX was weak due to the weak oil market, and the de - stocking prospect was not as expected, with a bearish sentiment in the market. The increase in PX supply and the decrease in demand affected the supply - demand situation and market sentiment, and short - term benefits would be under pressure [2]. - **PTA**: The cost support was insufficient as crude oil did not recover the previous day's decline. PTA supply was sufficient, and the downstream polyester filament sales were average. The market confidence was insufficient, and the inventory removal of the industrial chain was not smooth [2]. - **PR**: The mainstream negotiation price of polyester bottle - chips in the Jiangsu - Zhejiang market decreased. The prices of polyester raw materials PTA and bottle - chip futures fluctuated weakly. The supply of bottle - chips was sufficient, and the downstream terminal had a certain demand for replenishment [2].