【现货方面】 7月9日，PTA期货小幅收涨，现货市场商谈一般，贸易商商为主，个别聚酯工厂有递盘，现货基差快速 走弱后企稳。本周及下周货在09+20~45有成交，个别略高在09+60有成交，价格商谈区间在4720~4770 附近。7月底在09+15~40有成交，夜盘在09+50于有成交。主流现货基差在09+36。 【成本方面】 7月9日，PTA现货加工费至159元/吨附近，TA2509盘面加工费314元/吨。 供应：上周PTA负荷升至78.2%（+0.5%）。 需求：上周聚酯综合负荷继续下滑至90.2%（-1.2%）附近。7月9日，涤丝价格重心局部下调，产销整体 偏弱。近期丝价持续回落，且目前处于淡季以及天气较热，销售会较为平淡，开工率下滑，坯布库存有 所上升。后期丝价较大概率继续下行为主，长丝工厂库存继续增加。近期需关注长丝企业减产和长丝价 格重心调整情况。 【行情展望】 7月PTA装置检修力度一般，且三房巷（600370）PTA装置有投产预期，下游聚酯工厂7月减产预期较强 以及终端需求持续偏弱，PTA供需预期转弱，近期PTA基差进一步走弱。绝对价格上，油价短期走势偏 强，以及原料PX供需预期偏紧，叠加PTA ...

Market Overview - On July 7, PTA futures showed a weak fluctuation, with a quiet spot market and weak basis, primarily driven by traders' negotiations, with sporadic offers from polyester factories [1] - The mainstream spot basis was reported at 09+103, with transaction prices ranging from 4790 to 4830 RMB/ton [1] Cost Analysis - As of July 7, the PTA spot processing fee was around 265 RMB/ton, while the TA2509 contract processing fee was 332 RMB/ton [2] Supply and Demand Dynamics - Supply: Last week, Yisheng New Materials increased its load to 3.6 million tons, Hengli restarted 2.2 million tons, and Weilian Chemical had 2.5 million tons offline, resulting in PTA load rising to 78.2% (+0.5%) [3] - Demand: Some polyester facilities were under maintenance, while others increased their load, leading to a decline in polyester's overall load to 90.2% (-1.2%). On July 7, the price of polyester filament decreased by 50-150 RMB, indicating weak overall sales [3] - The current market is in the off-season with rising fabric inventory, and there is a high probability of continued downward pressure on filament prices [3] Price Outlook - The repair intensity of PTA facilities in July is moderate, and with new PTA facilities operating stably, there are expectations of reduced production in downstream polyester factories and continued weak terminal demand, leading to a bearish supply-demand outlook for PTA [4] - Despite short-term support from strong oil prices and tight PX supply-demand expectations, the absolute price rebound for PTA remains limited due to accelerating negative feedback from the terminal [4] - The strategy suggests that TA will fluctuate in the range of 4600-4900, with a bearish bias at the upper end [4]