Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report gives a negative view on PX, PTA, and PR, with a view score of -1 for each [3]. 2. Core View - The report predicts that PX, PTA, and PR will operate weakly [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Price Information - **Upstream**: On September 22, 2025, the prices of WTI crude oil, Brent crude oil, naphtha, xylene, and PX all declined. For example, the futures settlement price of WTI crude oil was $62.28 per barrel, down 0.64% from the previous value [1]. - **PTA**: The closing and settlement prices of CZCE TA's main and near - month contracts, as well as the domestic and index prices of PTA, decreased. The CCFEI price index of PTA's outer - plate dropped 1.29% to $610 per ton on September 19 [1]. - **PX**: The closing and settlement prices of CZCE PX's main and near - month contracts mostly declined, while the domestic spot price of PX remained unchanged. The PXN and PX - MX spreads also decreased [1]. - **PR**: The closing and settlement prices of CZCE PR's main and near - month contracts declined. The market prices of polyester bottle - chips in the East China and South China markets decreased [1]. - **Downstream**: The CCFEI price indices of various polyester products such as polyester DTY, POY, FDY, short - fiber, and slices all declined [2]. Spread and Basis - The near - far month spread of PTA increased by 2 yuan/ton to - 34 yuan/ton, and the basis decreased by 22 yuan/ton to - 71 yuan/ton. The basis of PX increased by 2 yuan/ton to - 17 yuan/ton. The basis of PR in the East China market decreased by 14 yuan/ton to - 16 yuan/ton, and in the South China market increased by 6 yuan/ton to 84 yuan/ton [1]. Operating Rate and Sales Rate - The operating rate of the PX in the polyester industry chain remained unchanged at 85.57%. The PTA factory's load rate decreased by 1.43 percentage points to 76.82%, while the polyester factory, bottle - chip factory, and Jiangsu - Zhejiang loom load rates remained unchanged. The sales rate of polyester filament increased by 14.44 percentage points to 57.68%, the sales rate of polyester short - fiber decreased by 2.28 percentage points to 48.81%, and the sales rate of polyester slices increased by 11.62 percentage points to 64.30% [1]. Device Information - A 700,000 - ton PX device in the Northeast has been under maintenance since September 18, with an expected maintenance period of about 45 days [2]. Important News and Logic - **PX**: Trump called on European countries to stop buying Russian oil, but without new positive news, oil prices were weak. The cost of PX was weak due to the weak oil market, and the de - stocking prospect was not as expected, with a bearish sentiment in the market. The increase in PX supply and the decrease in demand affected the supply - demand situation and market sentiment, and short - term benefits would be under pressure [2]. - **PTA**: The cost support was insufficient as crude oil did not recover the previous day's decline. PTA supply was sufficient, and the downstream polyester filament sales were average. The market confidence was insufficient, and the inventory removal of the industrial chain was not smooth [2]. - **PR**: The mainstream negotiation price of polyester bottle - chips in the Jiangsu - Zhejiang market decreased. The prices of polyester raw materials PTA and bottle - chip futures fluctuated weakly. The supply of bottle - chips was sufficient, and the downstream terminal had a certain demand for replenishment [2].

Market Overview - On July 9, PTA futures experienced a slight increase, with the spot market showing general trading activity primarily driven by traders, while some polyester factories made offers. The spot basis quickly weakened but stabilized afterward, with transactions occurring in the range of 4720 to 4770, and some higher at 09+60. The mainstream spot basis was at 09+36 [1] Cost Analysis - As of July 9, the PTA spot processing fee was around 159 yuan/ton, while the TA2509 market processing fee was 314 yuan/ton [2] Supply and Demand Dynamics - Supply: Last week, PTA operating rates rose to 78.2%, an increase of 0.5% - Demand: The polyester comprehensive operating rate continued to decline to 90.2%, a decrease of 1.2%. On July 9, the price of polyester filament saw a localized decrease, with overall sales remaining weak. The recent decline in filament prices, coupled with the off-season and hot weather, has led to subdued sales and an increase in fabric inventory. There is a high probability that filament prices will continue to trend downward, with filament factory inventories increasing. Attention should be paid to the production cuts by filament enterprises and adjustments in filament price levels [3] Market Outlook - In July, the maintenance of PTA facilities is moderate, and there is an expectation for the commissioning of the PTA facility at Sanfangxiang (600370). There is a strong expectation of production cuts in downstream polyester factories and continued weak terminal demand, leading to a weakening of PTA supply and demand expectations. The PTA basis has further weakened recently. In terms of absolute prices, short-term oil prices are expected to trend strong, and the supply-demand outlook for raw material PX is tight, combined with PTA processing fees compressed to very low levels, providing strong short-term cost support for PTA. However, with signs of accelerated negative feedback at the terminal, the rebound in PTA absolute prices remains limited. The strategy suggests that TA will oscillate in the range of 4600-4900, with a short position favored below 4700; the focus will be on rolling short positions in TA9-1 [4]

Market Overview - On July 7, PTA futures showed a weak fluctuation, with a quiet spot market and weak basis, primarily driven by traders' negotiations, with sporadic offers from polyester factories [1] - The mainstream spot basis was reported at 09+103, with transaction prices ranging from 4790 to 4830 RMB/ton [1] Cost Analysis - As of July 7, the PTA spot processing fee was around 265 RMB/ton, while the TA2509 contract processing fee was 332 RMB/ton [2] Supply and Demand Dynamics - Supply: Last week, Yisheng New Materials increased its load to 3.6 million tons, Hengli restarted 2.2 million tons, and Weilian Chemical had 2.5 million tons offline, resulting in PTA load rising to 78.2% (+0.5%) [3] - Demand: Some polyester facilities were under maintenance, while others increased their load, leading to a decline in polyester's overall load to 90.2% (-1.2%). On July 7, the price of polyester filament decreased by 50-150 RMB, indicating weak overall sales [3] - The current market is in the off-season with rising fabric inventory, and there is a high probability of continued downward pressure on filament prices [3] Price Outlook - The repair intensity of PTA facilities in July is moderate, and with new PTA facilities operating stably, there are expectations of reduced production in downstream polyester factories and continued weak terminal demand, leading to a bearish supply-demand outlook for PTA [4] - Despite short-term support from strong oil prices and tight PX supply-demand expectations, the absolute price rebound for PTA remains limited due to accelerating negative feedback from the terminal [4] - The strategy suggests that TA will fluctuate in the range of 4600-4900, with a bearish bias at the upper end [4]