信号二：伊朗内部政局是否稳定，这决定了冲突蔓延的程度。据新华社报道，当地时间2月28日，特朗 普在社交媒体Truth Social发文，称伊朗最高领袖哈梅内伊"已死"，后续需密切关注事态发展，是否引致 冲突或外交形势的变化。 信号三：伊朗的报复手段是否实质性涉及关键产油设施与航路，这决定了市场冲击的深度。据新华社2 月28日报道，霍尔木兹海峡油轮运输陷入停滞，全球多家大型石油公司、能源贸易商已紧急下达指令， 暂停所有石油与燃料船舶通过霍尔木兹海峡，以回避冲突升级带来的安全风险。后续需关注相关威胁是 否实质性落地。 综合来看，若上述三个信号未出现重大变化，市场影响或可视为2025年6月"十二日战争"时期的放大 版；但需关注上述信号的潜在变化是否引致更极端的情景。 智通财经APP获悉，中信证券发布研报称，当地时间2月28日，伊朗局势进入了军事冲突爆发阶段。截 至北京时间3月1日10:00，伊朗局势仍在快速变化，预计难以一次性按最终情景推测并演绎，更可能跟 随重要信号持续波动，美军军事调动、伊朗政局变化、冲突外溢范围三个关键信号是否出现潜在变化， 将决定全球市场影响为2025年6月"十二日战争"的放大版，还是走向更 ...

2月26日，外交部发言人毛宁表示，我们正在密切关注伊朗局势的发展。中方一贯主张通过政治外交途 径解决问题，反对在国际关系中使用或威胁使用武力。中国和伊朗两国人民传统友好。中方支持伊朗政 府和人民维护国家稳定和正当权益，希望各方珍惜和平，保持克制，通过对话解决分歧。中方愿为此继 续发挥负责任大国作用。 美国和伊朗谈判的消息持续扰动原油市场。据央视新闻报道，当地时间2月26日，伊朗外长阿拉格齐在 伊美第三轮间接谈判结束后表示，这是最严肃、持续时间最长的一次谈判。谈判取得了良好进展，在某 些领域，双方已接近达成共识。双方的技术团队将于3月2日在奥地利维也纳举行技术谈判。 随着美伊谈判暂时出现进展，2月26日，布伦特原油期货收跌0.14%，报每桶70.75美元。美国原油期货 收跌0.32%，报每桶65.21美元。但后续美伊谈判的形势仍不明朗，油价走势也充满不确定性。 美伊谈判桌上的每一次进退，霍尔木兹海峡的每一丝风吹草动，都在提醒我们：原油这一"工业血液"从 未远离政治的核心。 油价下行风险仍存 今年以来，国际油价一直在两种力量之间摇摆：一方面，市场普遍预期全球将出现供应过剩，令看空情 绪升温；另一方面，围绕伊朗的地 ...

Inflation Data - January CPI year-on-year growth decreased to 2.4%, below the market expectation of 2.5% and down from the previous value of 2.7%[2] - Core CPI also fell to 2.5%, down from 2.6%, marking the lowest level since April 2021[2] - Month-on-month, core CPI rose by 0.3%, in line with expectations, compared to a previous increase of 0.2%[2] Energy and Commodity Trends - Energy inflation dropped further, with January CPI energy component year-on-year growth at -0.1%, down from 2.3%[3] - Gasoline prices saw a year-on-year decline of -7.5%, contributing significantly to the overall energy inflation drop[3] - Core commodity inflation fell to 1.1% year-on-year, down from 1.4%, with used car prices plummeting to -2% year-on-year, a decline of 3.6 percentage points from the previous month[4] Service Inflation - Core service inflation decreased to 2.9% year-on-year, down from 3%, while month-on-month growth increased to 0.4% from 0.3%[4] - Housing inflation year-on-year was 3.3%, slightly down from 3.4%, indicating a continued moderation trend[4] - Medical services showed a rebound, with year-on-year growth rising to 3.9%[4] Market Reactions and Expectations - Following the inflation data release, U.S. stock indices experienced moderate gains, and the dollar index fell below 97[4] - The probability of the Federal Reserve lowering interest rates before June increased to 68%, up from 62%[4] - The yields on 2-year and 10-year U.S. Treasury bonds fell to 3.4% and 4.05%, respectively, both reaching new lows since November 2025[4]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that OPEC+ has delayed production increases, while shale oil production has peaked, leading to a slowdown in supply growth. On the demand side, global macroeconomic improvements and tariff adjustments are stabilizing and increasing oil demand. It is expected that oil prices will remain in a relatively loose range, with stronger bottom support, projecting Brent crude oil prices to be between $55 and $70 [1] Group 2 - In terms of natural gas, the United States may accelerate the construction of natural gas export facilities, which is expected to lower the cost of imported natural gas [1] Group 3 - The oil ETF (561360) tracks the oil and gas industry index (H30198), which includes publicly traded securities related to oil and gas exploration, extraction, refining, and sales, reflecting the overall performance of these companies. The constituent stocks are primarily large enterprises in the energy sector, characterized by strong cyclicality and sensitivity to commodity prices [1]

Report Information - Report Name: Asphalt Daily Report [1] - Date: February 12, 2026 [2] - Research Team: Energy and Chemical Research Team [4] - Researchers: Li Jie, Ren Junchi, Peng Jinglin, Liu Youran, Feng Zeren [4] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - The asphalt market continues to have a pattern of weak supply and demand. The supply side is expected to see a decline in the operating load rate of asphalt plants, and there is an expectation of tightened raw material supply and potential price increases after the Spring Festival. The demand side is seasonally weak, and asphalt is expected to mainly follow the movement of oil prices [6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Futures Market**: For BU2604, the opening price was 3347 yuan/ton, the closing price was 3373 yuan/ton, the highest was 3374 yuan/ton, the lowest was 3324 yuan/ton, the increase was 0.51%, and the trading volume was 132,000 lots. For BU2606, the opening price was 3365 yuan/ton, the closing price was 3370 yuan/ton, the highest was 3372 yuan/ton, the lowest was 3329 yuan/ton, the increase was 0.48%, and the trading volume was 30,300 lots [6]. - **Spot Market**: The spot prices of asphalt in various domestic regions were generally stable. Near the Spring Festival, the supply and demand in the asphalt spot market were both weak, and prices tended to be stable. The supply side is expected to see a decline in the operating load rate of asphalt plants, and there is an expectation of tightened raw material supply after the Spring Festival. The demand side is seasonally weak, and most projects in the south have gradually stopped work [6]. 3.2 Industry News - **Shandong Market**: The mainstream transaction price of 70 A-grade asphalt was 3180 - 3240 yuan/ton, remaining stable compared to the previous working day. International oil prices and asphalt futures maintained a range-bound trend, providing no obvious guidance to spot prices. Most transactions remained weak [7]. - **South China Market**: The mainstream transaction price of 70 A-grade asphalt was 3290 - 3350 yuan/ton, remaining stable compared to the previous working day. As the Spring Festival holiday approaches, most projects have stopped work, and asphalt demand is low. However, the inventory of asphalt in refineries and social warehouses is limited, and there is no pressure on the supply side [7]. 3.3 Data Overview - The report provides multiple data charts, including asphalt cracking, social inventory, daily operating rate, comprehensive profit in Shandong, spot price in South China, basis in Shandong, manufacturer inventory, and warehouse receipts, with data sources from Wind and the Research and Development Department of CCB Futures [12][13][18][21]

Core Viewpoint - Saudi Arabia has reduced the price of its main crude oil grade for Asian buyers to the lowest level in years, indicating that global oil supply exceeds demand [2][7]. Group 1: Market News and Important Data - On February 6, Saudi Aramco lowered the price of "Arab Light" crude oil for Asian buyers by $0.30 per barrel, aligning it with the March benchmark price in the region, marking the lowest price level since the end of 2020 [2][7]. - BP is seeking partners to help increase production at one of the oldest oil fields in the Middle East, the Kirkuk oil field in Iraq, with potential investors already looking for opportunities. The timeline for any agreements is uncertain, but interest from major oil companies in Iraq is growing due to its rich oil resources and lower extraction costs compared to regions outside the Middle East [2][7]. - On February 5, oil prices fell during the Asian trading session due to the confirmation of nuclear talks between the U.S. and Iran scheduled for Friday in Oman, highlighting the geopolitical factors affecting oil prices [2][7]. Group 2: Investment Logic - Short-term oil prices are influenced by the situation in Iran, with the U.S. and Iran set to engage in formal nuclear negotiations. However, significant differences remain, making consensus unlikely, and the competition between Iranian oil and Russian oil is intensifying [8]. Group 3: Strategy - The strategy suggests a short-term range-bound movement in oil prices, with a mid-term bearish positioning anticipated [8].

Group 1: Market News and Important Data - On February 3, the US government is preparing to issue a general license allowing companies to extract oil in Venezuela, a step to attract US - related companies and revive the country's energy industry. Another license allowing companies to buy and sell Venezuelan crude was issued last week [1]. - On February 3, the US Trade Representative said India agreed to cut tariffs on US exports from 13.5% to zero for industrial products, and they also reached a consensus on reducing India's technical non - tariff trade barriers. The US has been monitoring India's reduction of Russian oil purchases [1]. - In recent months, India has cut Russian oil imports. At least three refiners are seeking government clarification, two of which have suspended purchases. India's oil minister expects imports from Russia to continue to decline, and refiners want to increase supplies from Canada and the US [1]. - On February 3, crude oil prices rose slightly in Asian morning trading due to the US - India trade agreement. Trump said the US would cut tariffs on India to 18%, and India would stop buying Russian oil and increase purchases from the US and Venezuela. The US would cancel the 25% extra tariff on India's Russian oil imports, which may trigger more active purchasing by Indian refiners [1]. Group 2: Investment Logic - The situation in Iran has taken a turn with an Iranian drone shot down by the US military. The US - India agreement will lead to a 1 - million - barrel - per - day reduction in Russia oil consumption capacity and an increase in compliant oil purchases, supporting oil prices. However, the pace of India's procurement shift is unknown, and in the short term, the market surplus is concentrated in sanctioned oil, while the supply - demand of compliant oil will tighten [2]. Group 3: Strategy - Oil prices will fluctuate in the short - term, with geopolitical events having a large impact. Control risks, and consider a medium - term short - position allocation [3]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Oil prices rose significantly this week, driven by geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, reduced US crude oil production, decreased US crude oil inventories, and a falling dollar index. However, the long - term production increase trend remains unchanged, and the rebound height of oil prices may be limited without clear production cut signals or significant escalation of geopolitical situations [4]. - The overall valuation of the chemical sector has increased due to rising crude oil prices. PX supply is expected to ease, and PTA may face inventory accumulation in February. PTA prices are expected to oscillate at a high level following the cost side [4]. - The supply pressure of ethylene glycol has been alleviated, but the medium - term oversupply situation is difficult to change. It is expected to oscillate widely in the short term [5]. - The pure benzene and styrene markets have strengthened, but their supply - demand has turned loose, with limited upward momentum and a risk of correction [5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - This week, Brent crude oil reached $70/barrel. Tensions in the Middle East and concerns about potential supply disruptions, along with reduced US production and inventory, and a falling dollar, supported oil prices [4]. - OPEC+ announced a suspension of production increase from January to March 2026, but the long - term increase trend remains. Non - OPEC+ producers are expected to contribute 1.2 million barrels per day of production growth in 2026 [4]. PX & PTA - PX load remained unchanged, with processing fees stable at around $350/ton. Supply is expected to be looser in the future, and attention should be paid to terminal restocking [4]. - PTA plant inventory decreased slightly this week, but there is an expectation of inventory accumulation in February. The price is expected to oscillate at a high level with the cost side [4]. - As of Friday, the PTA spot market price was 5,290 yuan/ton, up 241 yuan/ton from last week. The average weekly capacity utilization rate was 75.83%, unchanged from last week. Factory inventory days decreased by 0.04 days to 3.58 days [16]. - PTA processing fees were 416 yuan/ton, up 61 yuan/ton from last week. The price increase was mainly due to the strong support of PX prices [16]. MEG - Domestic ethylene glycol synthesis gas plants are undergoing spring maintenance, and the overall strengthening of the coal and polyester sectors has boosted its valuation, reducing supply pressure [5]. - Port inventory reached 812,000 tons, but imports are expected to decline in February due to overseas plant shutdowns. The price is expected to oscillate widely in the short term [5]. - As of Friday, the ethylene glycol price in East China was 3,814 yuan/ton, up 148 yuan/ton from last week. The total domestic ethylene glycol capacity utilization rate was 61.50%, up 0.44% month - on - month [25]. BZ & EB - The pure benzene market has strengthened, but the supply - demand has turned loose, and there is a risk of correction [5]. - The styrene plant capacity utilization rate was 69.28%, down 0.35% month - on - month. Both factory and port inventories have increased, but the inventory pressure has been alleviated [38]. Polyester and Terminal Weaving - The average weekly capacity utilization rate of the Chinese polyester industry was 81.81%, down 1.81 percentage points from last week. The production and capacity utilization rate declined significantly due to pre - holiday plant maintenance [30]. - The开工 rate of Jiangsu and Zhejiang weaving sample enterprises was 42.41%, down 8.79% from the previous period. The average order days of terminal weaving were 6.70 days, down 0.85 days from last week, and the average finished - product inventory level was 28.79 days, up 0.48 days from last week [30].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the oil and gas industry is "Positive" and is maintained [11] Core Insights - The supply side will remain tight, which is a dominant factor for oil prices in 2026, while the demand side shows resilience. The willingness to increase production in shale oil is limited due to insufficient intent and questionable capacity. OPEC's strong intention to cut production to support prices is evident, and geopolitical tensions may impact production and exports from oil-producing countries [3][6][7][9] Supply and Demand Analysis - In 2025, the international oil price exhibited a "N" shaped trend due to weak supply and demand affected by geopolitical disturbances. The price dropped from $74.64 per barrel to $60.23 per barrel, then rose to $78.85 per barrel before falling again to $60.85 per barrel by the end of the year [20] - For 2026, the supply side is expected to remain tight, with a slight easing in supply-demand balance compared to Q4 2025. The oil price is projected to stabilize between $60 and $65 per barrel, excluding geopolitical premiums [9][6] - The U.S. shale oil breakeven price has significantly increased by 25% to $65 per barrel compared to Q1 2018, limiting the ability to increase production. The efficiency of new wells is improving slowly, and the number of drilled but uncompleted (DUC) wells has decreased significantly [25][35][41] - OPEC's ability to control prices through production cuts has strengthened, especially as U.S. production growth has not rebounded to previous levels. OPEC is likely to maintain a certain level of production cuts to support prices [7][61] Geopolitical Factors - Geopolitical tensions, particularly involving countries like Iran, may severely impact production and exports. The U.S. has indicated intentions to sanction entities assisting Iran in illegal oil sales, which could further influence oil supply and prices [67][68][72] - The Strait of Hormuz is a critical oil transport route, and any disruption could significantly affect global oil prices due to the high dependency of major oil-exporting countries on this passage [72][74] Demand Forecast - Global oil demand is expected to stabilize in 2025, with a slight decrease in growth to approximately 1.14 million barrels per day in 2026. The demand is supported by economic policies in India and resilient demand in the U.S. [8][30]

Core Viewpoint - The recent rebound of the USD/CAD is primarily a technical correction and profit-taking behavior ahead of the Canadian and Federal Reserve's policy decisions, rather than a signal of a trend reversal [1][2][3]. Group 1: Market Expectations - The market widely anticipates that the Bank of Canada (BoC) will maintain interest rates, although recent economic data has shown divergence and trade uncertainties persist [3]. - There is an increasing expectation for a potential rate cut by the BoC, influenced by rising oil prices that support the Canadian dollar, which limits the upside potential for USD/CAD [3][4]. Group 2: Federal Reserve Influence - The upcoming Federal Reserve meeting is expected to be a key variable for the short-term direction of the USD, with investors focusing on the Fed's guidance regarding future rate cuts [3][4]. - The USD index has recently rebounded from multi-year lows, but the market still expects future rate cuts from the Fed, which limits the upward momentum of the dollar [3]. Group 3: Technical Analysis - The daily chart indicates that the low-level rebound of USD/CAD is characterized by short-term profit-taking and correction, with prices stabilizing near mid-term moving averages [2][4]. - Key support levels are identified at recent lows and moving average convergence areas, while resistance is focused on key psychological levels and previous high-density areas [4]. Group 4: Overall Market Sentiment - The USD/CAD is currently in a low-level consolidation and range rebound pattern, with trend confirmation dependent on volume expansion and subsequent buying activity before the central bank policy outcomes are clear [4][5].