原油承压于供应宽松预期，弱需求主导油价走势 一、日度市场总结 原油期货市场数据变动分析 主力合约与基差 ：2025年11月21日，SC原油主力合约收跌1.46%至446元/ 桶，WTI和Brent分别下跌1.5%和1.5%至58.76美元/桶、63.08美元/桶，显 示全球油价同步回落。SC-Brent价差从0.6美元/桶扩大至0.92美元/桶， SC-WTI价差从4.97美元/桶扩大至5.24美元/桶，反映SC相对外盘跌幅较 小，或受中国西部原油管道输油突破2亿吨的支撑。Brent-WTI价差小幅走 强至4.32美元/桶，延续欧洲需求相对稳健的预期。 持仓与成交 ：布伦特原油投机净多头增加13,497手至178,364手（截至11 月18日），而WTI净空头增加33,023手至42,487手，显示市场对欧洲基准油 价的看涨情绪更强，但对美国原油供应宽松的担忧加剧。 产业链供需及库存变化分析 供给端 ：美国当周石油钻井数增加2口至419口，叠加美国内政部计划扩大 西海岸和北极区域钻探，暗示未来页岩油产能或回升。委内瑞拉原油装置 因火灾停产及俄罗斯石油公司削减股息则加剧非OPEC供应扰动。OPEC+方 面，印度 ...

t ( 石油石化 2025 年 11 月 23 日 时代小说书 证券分析师 刘子栋 A0230523110002 liuzd@swsresearch.com 邵靖宇 A0230524080001 shaojy@swsresearch.com 宋涛 A0230516070001 songtao@swsresearch.com 研究支持 丁莹 A0230125070005 dingying@swsresearch.com 联系人 丁莹 (8621)23297818× dingying@swsresearch.com IEA 如何看待石油长期需求? -石油化工行业周报(2025/11/17—2025/11/23) 本期投资提示: 申万宏源研究微信服务号 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 相关研究 t Production of the Production of the Company of the Comment of the Comment of the Comment of the Comment of the Comment of the Comment of the Comment of the ...

uan 行 业 及 产 业 石油石化 2025 年 11 月 23 日 行 业 研 究 / 行 业 点 评 - 证券分析师 刘子栋 A0230523110002 liuzd@swsresearch.com 邵靖宇 A0230524080001 shaojy@swsresearch.com 宋涛 A0230516070001 songtao@swsresearch.com 研究支持 丁莹 A0230125070005 dingying@swsresearch.com 联系人 丁莹 (8621)23297818× dingying@swsresearch.com 报 告 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 中庚基金 使用。1 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 证 券 研 究 相关研究 ⚫ IEA 如何看待石油长期需求？对于石油需求，IEA 分别在现行政策情景（CPS）和既定 政策情景（STEPS）下进行讨论。现行政策情景下，IEA 认为石油需求仍在稳步提升。 IEA 预计石油需求量在 2035 年上升至 1.05 亿桶/天，并在 2050 年达到 1.13 亿桶/天， 平均年增长率约为 50 万桶/天。从需求结 ...

格隆汇11月21日丨普达特科技(00650.HK)公布截至2025年9月30日止六个月之中期业绩。设备及服务销 售额指应用于太阳能及半导体制造的清洗设备以及与设备相关的备件及服务销售额。其由截至2024年9 月30日止六个月的77,300,000港元减少68,200,000港元或约88.2%至报告期间的9,100,000港元。其减少主 要由于光伏行业不景气。全球光伏市场自2023年底持续面临全行业范围内的调整，此乃由于需求减少及 项目延迟导致太阳能设备销售额相应减少。 原油销售额指宏博矿业的原油销售净额。其由截至2024年9月30日止六个月的84,700,000港元减少 16,200,000港元或约19.2%至报告期间的68,400,000港元。该减少主要由于报告期间售价降低及销量轻微 减少。宏博矿业的原油主要参考布伦特原油价格定价。报告期间布伦特原油平均价格减少至每桶约535 港元，而截至2024年9月30日止六个月则为每桶约639港元。宏博矿业原油的平均单位售价由截至2024年 9月30日止六个月的每桶625港元减少至报告期间的每桶约525港元，与全球油价走势一致。另一方面， 宏博矿业的净销量由截至202 ...

平安证券发布研报称，俄乌互相打击对方能源设施，美委关系持续紧张，叠加美国经济运行情况、未来 降息政策尚存不确定性，短期内油价仍有一定支撑；但中长期油价仍将锚定基本面，随着OPEC+增产 的持续推进，旺季之后基本面过剩预期或将逐步兑现，油价仍存在中枢进一步下移的担忧。 石油股延续近期涨势，截至发稿，中石化(00386)涨3.6%，报4.6港元；中石油(00857)涨2.71%，报9.08港 元；中海油(00883)涨2.29%，报22.3港元怕；中海油服(02883)涨1.02%，报7.91港元。 消息面上，中国石化、中国海油、中国石油近期披露2025年第三季度报告。光大证券认为，"三桶油"在 油价下行期的业绩韧性凸显。展望2026年，继续维持高资本开支，不断加强天然气市场开拓，加快中下 游炼化业务转型，有望实现穿越油价周期的长期成长。 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: ★☆☆, indicating a bullish bias but limited trading opportunities on the market [1] - Fuel oil: ★☆☆, suggesting a bullish bias but limited trading opportunities on the market [1] - Low-sulfur fuel oil: ★☆☆, meaning a bullish bias but limited trading opportunities on the market [1] - Asphalt: ★☆☆, showing a bullish bias but limited trading opportunities on the market [1] - Liquefied petroleum gas: ☆☆☆, indicating a relatively balanced short-term trend with poor market operability, suggesting a wait-and-see approach [1] Core Viewpoints - The market is bearish on crude oil prices in the short term and recommends shorting on price rebounds [2] - The high-sulfur fuel oil market is affected by supply and demand factors, while the low-sulfur fuel oil market has improved fundamentals. The strategy of widening the high-low sulfur spread has been gradually realized and can be considered for timely profit-taking [2] - The asphalt market is bearish in the medium and long term due to weak fundamentals [3] - The liquefied petroleum gas market is expected to fluctuate upward due to tightened supply and demand [4] Summary by Directory Crude Oil - Overnight international oil prices dropped significantly, with the SC12 contract falling 3.66%. The OPEC November report adjusted the non-OPEC+ supply growth rate upward and maintained the demand growth rate, shifting the balance sheet from a shortage to a balance, amplifying market pessimism. Last week, the US API crude oil inventory increased by 1.3 million barrels [2] - Since November, the crude oil calendar spread and spot premium have weakened again. Considering that the most relaxed quarter of the balance sheet, Q1 2026, has not yet arrived, there is still room for oil prices to decline this year [2] Fuel Oil & Low-Sulfur Fuel Oil - Affected by the pessimistic sentiment from the OPEC November report, fuel oil prices followed the cost side down significantly [2] - The main support for high-sulfur fuel oil comes from the supply risk caused by the constraints on Russian refinery capacity, especially with the escalation of the Russia-Ukraine conflict. However, the continuous production increase by OPEC+ has led to an increase in high-sulfur resources in the Middle East, offsetting some of the impact. On the demand side, the power generation peak season in the Middle East has ended, the Palestine-Israel conflict has eased, and the market expects the first batch of crude oil quotas in 2026 to be issued ahead of schedule, which may further weaken the feedstock demand of local refineries [2] - The low-sulfur market benefits from the alleviation of supply pressure due to unstable overseas refinery operations. The Russia-Ukraine conflict has pushed up the crack spreads of gasoline and diesel, providing support for low-sulfur fuel oil from the perspective of production switching. In the fourth quarter, it is the peak season for marine fuel, and the phased improvement in Sino-US trade relations has improved the fundamentals of low-sulfur fuel oil compared to the third quarter. The previously arranged strategy of widening the high-low sulfur spread has been gradually realized, and timely profit-taking can be considered [2] Asphalt - Against the backdrop of a sharp drop in crude oil prices today, the decline of asphalt has slowed down, and the 2601 contract has some support at 3,000 yuan/ton [3] - The lower-than-expected shipment volume not only disproves the expectation of rush construction demand in the final year of the "14th Five-Year Plan" but also sends a negative signal that demand is lower than the same period last year. This week, the destocking of commercial inventories has shown signs of slowing down, and the year-on-year increase in social inventories has widened after reaching an inflection point at the end of October. In the medium and long term, the bearish fundamentals still suppress the BU [3] Liquefied Petroleum Gas - The international liquefied gas market has been strong recently, with tight supply of imported resources [4] - The improved profitability of butane dehydrogenation units has boosted the enthusiasm of downstream chemical enterprises to start operations, and the significant cooling in many places has improved the demand for combustion. The inventory rates of refineries and ports have decreased. The tightening of supply and demand has supported the LPG to fluctuate upward [4]

原油日报 | 2025-11-12 乌克兰对俄炼厂袭击持续，油价小幅反弹 市场要闻与重要数据 1、 纽约商品交易所12月交货的轻质原油期货价格上涨91美分，收于每桶61.04美元，涨幅为1.51%；1月交货的伦 敦布伦特原油期货价格上涨1.10美元，收于每桶65.16美元，涨幅为1.72%。SC原油主力合约收涨2.11%，报469元/ 桶。 2、 数据显示，俄罗斯海运原油出货量连续第三周下降，滑至两个月以来的最低点，下降的运量加上较低的价格 打击了克里姆林宫的资金。船舶追踪数据显示，在截至11月9日的四周内，俄罗斯每天运输了345万桶原油，比截 至11月2日的同一时间段减少了约13万桶。（来源：Bloomberg） 3、 乌克兰声称本月对俄罗斯伏尔加地区的一处关键俄罗斯石油公司炼油厂发动了第二次袭击，基辅的军事当局 继续实施打击莫斯科炼油行业以削减其能源收入的战略。该炼油厂每天有能力加工约140,000桶原油，是俄罗斯西 部人口最稠密地区汽油和柴油燃料的关键供应商。它今年已成为乌克兰无人机多次袭击的目标，最近一次是在11 月3日。（来源：Bloomberg） 4、 2025年，俄罗斯通过北海航线向亚洲的原油运 ...

Core Viewpoint - Domestic refined oil prices have increased after two consecutive decreases, with gasoline and diesel prices rising by 125 yuan and 120 yuan per ton respectively, effective from November 10 [2][3]. Price Adjustment Details - The National Development and Reform Commission announced the price increase based on the average price of crude oil over the previous ten working days, which was 62.44 USD per barrel, reflecting a change rate of 2.74% [3]. - This marks the 22nd price adjustment in 2025, with a total of seven increases, nine decreases, and six instances of no change throughout the year [3][4]. - Year-to-date, gasoline and diesel prices have decreased by 620 yuan per ton and 595 yuan per ton respectively [4]. Impact on Consumers - Following the price adjustment, retail prices for diesel range from 6.6 to 6.8 yuan per liter, while 92-octane gasoline is priced between 6.9 and 7.0 yuan per liter [4]. - For private car owners, filling a 50L tank will cost an additional 5 yuan, leading to an estimated increase of 7 yuan in fuel costs for a vehicle running 2,000 kilometers per month [4]. - In the logistics sector, a heavy truck running 10,000 kilometers per month will see an increase of approximately 177 yuan in fuel costs before the next price adjustment [4]. International Oil Market Trends - International crude oil prices have shown a weak and fluctuating trend, with OPEC+ members deciding to increase production targets, raising concerns about oversupply [5][6]. - The U.S. government shutdown and rising crude oil inventories have further pressured oil prices downward [5][6]. - Analysts predict that global oil inventories will continue to rise, exerting downward pressure on prices, with Brent crude expected to average 62 USD per barrel in Q4 2025 and drop to 52 USD in 2026 [6]. Future Price Expectations - The next round of domestic refined oil price adjustments is anticipated to be downward due to a pessimistic outlook on international oil prices and ongoing oversupply concerns from OPEC+ [7]. - Analysts suggest that the seasonal decrease in U.S. refinery demand and the increase in crude oil inventories will contribute to this expected price reduction [7][8]. - The overall sentiment indicates that while diesel demand remains stable, gasoline lacks strong support, leading to a forecast of weak fluctuations in gasoline prices [8].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: Not clearly stated in the given rating form, but the analysis implies a bearish view in the medium - term with short - term support [1][2] - Fuel oil: ☆☆☆, indicating a relatively clear bullish trend and current investment opportunities [1] - Low - sulfur fuel oil: Not clearly rated in the form, but analysis shows short - term support and potential for the spread with high - sulfur fuel oil to widen [2] - Asphalt: ★☆☆, representing a bearish view with a weak upward/downward trend and poor operability on the trading board [1][3] - Liquefied petroleum gas: ☆☆☆, suggesting a relatively clear bullish trend and current investment opportunities [1] 2. Core Views - For the oil market, although there are short - term factors supporting oil prices, considering inventory trends, refinery operations, and the expected loosening of the balance sheet in the first quarter of next year, there is still room for oil prices to decline this year [2] - In the fuel oil market, high - sulfur fuel oil supply is becoming more abundant, while low - sulfur fuel oil gets short - term support, and the spread between high - and low - sulfur fuel oil is likely to further widen [2] - The asphalt market is under pressure due to poor demand, slow inventory reduction, and negative fundamental signals [3] - The liquefied petroleum gas market has improved fundamentals, with reduced supply and increased demand, which supports the LPG futures price [4] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - Last week, global oil inventories decreased, mainly in refined products. Diesel cracking is strong overseas. Considering the recovery of refinery operating rates in Europe and the US after autumn maintenance and the strong refining profit, the low point of diesel inventory is approaching [2] - Since November, the oil price contango and spot premium have weakened again. With the loosest balance sheet period (Q1 next year) yet to come, there is still room for oil prices to fall this year. However, the resolution of the US government shutdown and the intensifying geopolitical game around Russia and Ukraine provide short - term support. Look for short - selling opportunities after the rebound [2] Fuel Oil & Low - sulfur Fuel Oil - High - sulfur fuel oil is mainly driven by the cost side. Although supported by geopolitical situations, Russian shipments decreased in October due to facility attacks, but exports from the Middle East increased after the end of the power - generation peak season, and OPEC+ is steadily increasing production, so the overall supply tends to be loose. Import demand support is limited, and the expected early issuance of the first batch of crude oil quotas in 2026 may further weaken feedstock demand [2] - Low - sulfur fuel oil gets short - term support from factors such as the unexpected shutdown of the Al Zour refinery, the adjustment of the Dangote refinery's shipping schedule, and the possible shift of quotas to refined products. The frequent attacks on Russian refineries have pushed up the diesel price, which is transmitted to the low - sulfur fuel oil market through component correlation [2] Asphalt - The shipment volume is worse than expected, falsifying the expectation of rush - work demand in the final year of the "14th Five - Year Plan" and indicating that demand is lower than the same period last year. Commercial inventory reduction has slowed down this week, and the year - on - year increase in social inventory has widened since the inflection point in late October. The basis of the lowest deliverable spot price in Shandong, East China, and South China relative to the main asphalt contract has shown obvious differentiation, with high bases in East and South China and a negative basis in Shandong. The market is bearish, and the asphalt price is under significant pressure [3] Liquefied Petroleum Gas - LPG has shown a narrow - range oscillation today and is relatively strong among oil futures. In the latest week, both the commercial volume and arrivals of LPG have decreased. The chemical demand for propane and butane has increased, and the combustion demand has improved due to significant cooling in many places. The storage rates of refineries and ports have decreased, and the improved fundamentals support the LPG futures price [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Short - term oil prices will maintain a volatile trend, with intertwined supply - demand contradictions. The supply side is supported by Iraqi supply disruptions, but the abundant idle capacity under the OPEC+ production - cut policy limits the upside. On the demand side, there is a long - short game between the recovery of refinery profits and the weakening expectation of jet fuel consumption. SC shows relative independence due to domestic price adjustments and regional spreads, but the deepening of near - month discounts reflects spot pressure [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Market Summary 3.1.1 Crude Oil Futures Market Data Analysis - On November 10, 2025, the SC crude oil main contract rose slightly by 0.26% to 461.8 yuan/barrel, while WTI and Brent prices remained stable at 59.84 dollars/barrel and 63.7 dollars/barrel respectively. The spreads between SC and Brent, WTI strengthened by 0.21 dollars/barrel to 1.18 dollars/barrel and 5.04 dollars/barrel respectively, indicating an expansion of SC's premium relative to the outer market. The discount of the SC continuous - consecutive 3 spread deepened to - 3.4 yuan/barrel, reflecting pressure on near - month contracts [2]. 3.1.2 Analysis of Industrial Chain Supply - Demand and Inventory Changes - **Supply Side**: The West Qurna - 2 project in Iraq was suspended due to force majeure, and 3 batches of crude oil shipments of Lukoil were cancelled, increasing the short - term risk of supply tightening in Iraq. The cooperation between Zhonggang Petroleum and Kazakh oil fields may provide potential support for long - term production capacity in Central Asia, but the short - term impact is limited [3]. - **Demand Side**: The slight increase in refined oil prices in China shows a marginal improvement in refinery profits, which may support crude oil procurement demand. However, Singapore's plan to levy a green tax on aviation fuel may suppress the consumption expectation of jet fuel in the Asia - Pacific region, forming a partial suppression on the demand side [4]. - **Inventory Side**: The expansion of the SC near - far month spread discount may imply an accumulation of domestic delivery inventories under supply pressure. The inventory data of the US and OECD have not been updated, and subsequent EIA reports need to be followed [5]. 3.1.3 Price Trend Judgment - In the short term, it will maintain a volatile trend with intertwined supply - demand contradictions. The supply side is supported by Iraqi supply disturbances, but the abundant idle capacity under the OPEC+ production - cut policy limits the upside. On the demand side, the recovery of refinery profits and the weakening expectation of jet fuel consumption form a long - short game. SC shows relative independence due to domestic price adjustments and regional spreads, but the deepening of near - month discounts reflects spot pressure [6]. 3.2 Industrial Chain Price Monitoring 3.2.1 Crude Oil - **Futures Prices**: On November 10, 2025, SC was at 461.80 yuan/barrel, up 0.26% from November 7; WTI was at 60.05 dollars/barrel, up 0.35%; Brent was at 63.94 dollars/barrel, up 0.38%; OPEC's basket price remained unchanged at 64.83 dollars/barrel [8]. - **Spot Prices**: Various crude oil spot prices showed different changes, such as Oman up 0.41%, Dubai up 0.95%, etc. [8]. - **Spreads**: SC - Brent spread decreased by 3.09% to 0.94 dollars/barrel; SC - WTI spread remained unchanged; Brent - WTI spread increased by 0.78% to 3.89 dollars/barrel; SC continuous - consecutive 3 spread decreased by 41.67% to - 3.40 yuan/barrel [8]. - **Other Assets**: The US dollar index rose by 0.08% to 99.62; the S&P 500 rose by 1.54% to 6,832.43 points; the DAX index rose by 1.65% to 23,959.99 points; the RMB exchange rate remained stable [8]. - **Inventory**: US commercial crude oil inventory increased by 1.25% to 42,116,800 barrels; Cushing inventory increased by 1.33% to 2,286,500 barrels; US strategic reserve inventory increased by 0.12% to 40,959,500 barrels; API inventory increased by 1.47% to 45,043,900 barrels [8]. - **开工**: The weekly operating rate of US refineries decreased by 0.69% to 86.00%; the crude oil processing volume of US refineries increased by 0.24% to 1,525,600 barrels/day [8]. 3.2.2 Fuel Oil - **Futures Prices**: FU was at 2,693.00 yuan/ton, down 0.07% from November 7; LU was at 3,280.00 yuan/ton, up 0.18%; NYMEX fuel oil was at 249.51 cents/gallon, up 0.52% [9]. - **Spot Prices**: Most spot prices remained unchanged, such as IF0380 in Singapore and Rotterdam, MDO in Singapore and Rotterdam, etc. [9]. - **Paper Prices**: High - sulfur 180 in Singapore (near - month) decreased by 0.46% to 376.78 dollars/ton; high - sulfur 380 in Singapore (near - month) decreased by 0.17% to 371.43 dollars/ton [9]. - **Spreads**: The China high - low sulfur spread increased by 1.38% to 587.00 yuan/ton; LU - Singapore FOB (0.5%S) increased by 0.32% to - 1,887.00 yuan/ton; FU - Singapore 380CST decreased by 0.11% to - 1,780.00 yuan/ton [9]. - **Inventory**: Singapore's inventory decreased by 1.21% to 2,448,200 barrels [9]. 3.3 Industry Dynamics and Interpretations 3.3.1 Supply - On November 10, Zhonggang Petroleum (International) Group Co., Ltd. and AralPetroleum Capital LLP entered into a memorandum of understanding to explore potential cooperation in oil well exploration and production in Kazakh oil fields. - On November 10, Iraq's SOMO cancelled 3 batches of crude oil cargoes of Lukoil scheduled for November shipment. - On November 10, Lukoil announced force majeure for the West Qurna - 2 project in Iraq and warned that it might withdraw from the project if the situation continued [10][11]. 3.3.2 Demand - On November 10, the new round of refined oil price adjustment window was opened, and domestic gasoline and diesel prices increased slightly due to international oil price fluctuations [12]. 3.3.3 Market Information - Starting from next year, air passengers departing from Singapore will pay a green fuel tax of up to S$41.60 (US$31.95), which may suppress the consumption of jet fuel in the Asia - Pacific region [14].