Group 1: Market Overview - The Hang Seng Index closed at 24,750.79, down 201 points or 0.81%, with a trading volume of 28.54 billion [4] - The market experienced significant volatility, with the index initially dropping over 500 points before recovering slightly due to stabilization in the A-share market [4] - 64 out of 90 blue-chip stocks declined, with notable drops in technology stocks such as Baidu (-2.6%), Tencent (-2.4%), and Alibaba (-1.7%) [5] Group 2: Macroeconomic and Industry Dynamics - Standard Chartered's report suggests that if oil prices do not peak soon, the Hang Seng Index could fall to between 21,500 and 22,500 points [7] - The report indicates a 70% probability that oil prices may peak in the coming weeks, which could allow the Hang Seng Index to rebound to between 28,000 and 29,000 points [7] - The ongoing Middle East conflict adds uncertainty to the market, impacting inflation and the potential for interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [7] Group 3: Company News - BYD has expressed confidence in achieving an export volume of 1.5 million vehicles this year, exceeding its previous target by 15% [11] - Dah Sing Bank reported a 20.16% increase in net profit to 2.476 billion, with a focus on cost management and selective investments for 2026 [12] - Yadea Holdings announced a 1.29 times increase in net profit to 2.912 billion, with revenue rising by 31.07% [13]

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call primarily discusses the oil industry, focusing on the implications of the blockade in the Strait of Hormuz on global oil supply and prices [1][2][3]. Core Insights and Arguments - The blockade in the Strait of Hormuz has disrupted the trade of 15 million barrels of crude oil and 5 million barrels of refined oil daily, with alternative pipelines only covering 4 million barrels per day [1] - Major oil-producing countries have voluntarily reduced production by over 7 million barrels per day, with potential increases in reductions if the blockade continues [3] - If the blockade lasts more than one month, irreversible damage to aging oil fields could occur, extending the recovery period for production to 3-6 months, thereby suppressing supply recovery in 2026 [1][3] - The marginal cost of U.S. shale oil has risen to $65 per barrel, and the number of drilled but uncompleted wells (DUC) has dropped to a 10-year low, indicating limited remaining capacity outside of OPEC [1][4] - The release of 400 million barrels from strategic reserves by the U.S. and Europe may only provide temporary relief, as it cannot alter the fundamental tight supply-demand balance [1][4] - The duration of the blockade will significantly influence the price of oil in 2026, with projections of $75-80 per barrel for a one-month blockade, over $90 for a quarter, and potentially exceeding $120 for a six-month blockade [1][6] Additional Important Content - The blockade's impact on global oil supply is currently estimated at about 10%, but this could escalate if the situation worsens [3] - Even if the Strait of Hormuz reopens, supply recovery will be slow due to potential flow management and irreversible impacts on oil fields [3] - The geopolitical situation has altered the supply-demand balance, with previous forecasts for 2026 now significantly changed due to the ongoing conflict [5] - The oil price is expected to peak around late March to early April, potentially exceeding $150 per barrel if the blockade continues [6] - Natural gas prices are also expected to experience significant volatility, with key turning points anticipated in early to mid-April [7]

Report Information - Report Name: EIA Crude Oil Weekly Data Report [1] - Company: Green Dahua Futures Co., Ltd. - Date: March 26, 2026 - Researcher: Wang Chen [1] -从业资格: F03104620 - 交易咨询资格: Z0021310 - Contact: wangchen@greendh.com Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The total daily average demand for refined oil products in the US in the four weeks ending March 20 was 20.678 million barrels, 2.4% higher than the same period last year; the four - week average daily demand for motor gasoline was 8.796 million barrels, 0.9% lower than the same period last year; the four - week average daily demand for distillate oil was 392,000 barrels, 1.3% higher than the same period last year; the four - week average daily demand for kerosene - type aviation fuel was 2.8% lower than the same period last year [2] - US crude oil inventories continued to accumulate more than expected, and the US released continuous negotiation signals, causing oil prices to fall below $100 per barrel. However, the US is still deploying troops to the Middle East, and Iran has refused to negotiate [2] - The Strait of Hormuz has been blocked for 26 days. With full storage tanks and blocked exports due to conflicts, Iraq's oil production has further declined, with the crude oil production in its southern oilfields dropping by about 80% to about 800,000 barrels per day. The International Energy Agency analyzed that even if the Strait of Hormuz resumes passage, it may take six months for the Gulf's oil and gas supply to fully recover [2] - Pay attention to the military actions of the US, Israel, and Iran in the near future. If power facilities are involved or there are ground operations on Kharg Island, oil prices may rise significantly; if it remains at the stage of verbal confrontation, oil prices are expected to fluctuate at a high level, with a support level below $95 per barrel. It is recommended to wait and see or conduct short - term operations [2] Data Summary Inventory Data - US commercial crude oil inventory as of March 20, 2026, was 456,185 thousand barrels, an increase of 6,926 thousand barrels (1.54%) from March 13 [3] - Cushing crude oil inventory as of March 20, 2026, was 30,945 thousand barrels, an increase of 3,421 thousand barrels (12.43%) from March 13 [3] - US gasoline inventory as of March 20, 2026, was 241,447 thousand barrels, a decrease of 2,593 thousand barrels (-1.06%) from March 13 [3] - US distillate oil inventory as of March 20, 2026, was 119,936 thousand barrels, an increase of 3,032 thousand barrels (2.59%) from March 13 [3] - US total oil product inventory as of March 20, 2026, was 1,275,705 thousand barrels, an increase of 8,334 thousand barrels (0.66%) from March 13 [3] - US strategic petroleum reserve inventory as of March 20, 2026, was 415,442 thousand barrels, unchanged from March 13 [3] Production and Trade Data - US refinery utilization rate as of March 20, 2026, was 92.9%, an increase of 1.5 percentage points (1.64%) from March 13 [3] - US crude oil production as of March 20, 2026, was 13,657 thousand barrels per day, a decrease of 11 thousand barrels per day (-0.08%) from March 13 [3] - US crude oil imports as of March 20, 2026, were 6,464 thousand barrels per day, a decrease of 730 thousand barrels per day (-10.15%) from March 13 [3] - US crude oil exports as of March 20, 2026, were 3,322 thousand barrels per day, a decrease of 1,576 thousand barrels per day (-32.18%) from March 13 [3]

Group 1 - The oil and gas extraction sector is expected to see Brent crude oil prices range between $80 and $150 per barrel in 2026, driven by geopolitical tensions and supply constraints, particularly due to the blockage of the Strait of Hormuz, which limits nearly 20 million barrels per day of oil and product exports [3][9][22] - Global GDP growth is projected at approximately 3.3% in 2026, with a demand increase for oil, although at a slower pace, leading to an estimated daily supply-demand gap of about 7.4 million barrels under stable demand conditions [3][9][63] - The geopolitical situation has significantly impacted oil supply, with the IEA releasing 400 million barrels from strategic reserves to mitigate the supply shortfall, although this is not expected to fully compensate for the losses [34][63] Group 2 - The refining sector is facing increased cost pressures due to supply chain disruptions, leading to a reduction in operational capacity for many refineries, particularly smaller ones, while larger domestic refineries may benefit from stable or diversified procurement channels [4][29] - The domestic refining capacity is nearing its limit, with a cap of 1 billion tons, which is expected to support a recovery in the sector's profitability as global energy disruptions accelerate the exit of less competitive overseas capacities [4][29] Group 3 - The polyester industry is anticipated to experience a slowdown in capital expenditure growth, with a focus on achieving balance under high oil prices in 2026, as major capital projects conclude and downstream demand stabilizes [5][62] - The production capacity for polyester bottle chips is nearing its peak, with limited new capacity expected in 2026, while the overall industry is expected to benefit from collaborative production cuts among leading companies [5][62] Group 4 - Investment recommendations highlight that companies in the oil sector, such as China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC), China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation (Sinopec), and others, are expected to benefit significantly from high oil prices [6] - The report suggests that downstream polyester companies, particularly those producing high-quality polyester filament and bottle-grade materials, are also positioned for potential growth as supply-demand dynamics tighten [6]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: ★★★, indicating a clear upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [4] - Fuel oil: ★★★, suggesting a clear upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [4] - Low-sulfur fuel oil: ★★★, showing a clear upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [4] - Asphalt: ★★★, meaning a clear upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [4] Core Views - The short-term oil price has a high risk of two-way fluctuations, and the long-term core variable determining the oil price trend is whether the Strait of Hormuz can remain open [1] - The geopolitical situation is the core of trading, and any progress in the peace talks will drive the market to form a wide-range shock pattern [2] - The asphalt fundamentals have marginal improvement expectations, and the BU price trend will follow the oil price, but the downside space is expected to be limited [3] Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - The US government proposed a 15-item conflict-ending plan to Iran through Pakistan, but Iran doubts the US's sincerity due to previous attacks and troop deployments [1] - The capacity of alternative oil pipelines in the Middle East still has a huge gap compared with the normal shipping volume through the strait, and the release of strategic oil reserves by IEA member countries is only for emergency buffering [1] - The short-term oil price has a high risk of two-way fluctuations, and the long-term core variable determining the oil price trend is whether the Strait of Hormuz can remain open [1] Fuel Oil & Low-Sulfur Fuel Oil - The US proposed a peace talk plan to Iran, leading to a significant decline in fuel oil prices [2] - The logistics suppression of supply has not been lifted, and the supply gap in the Middle East cannot be fully hedged [2] - The approaching summer power generation peak may bring more fuel oil demand due to the LNG supply gap [2] - Low-sulfur fuel oil production has decreased due to supply reductions in Kuwait and other overseas refineries, as well as domestic raw material issues, and the high crack spread of refined oil supports the low-sulfur trend [2] - The geopolitical situation is the core of trading, and any progress in the peace talks will drive the market to form a wide-range shock pattern [2] Asphalt - Domestic refining enterprises are worried about future imported raw materials, and some refineries have started or plan to reduce device capacity utilization, leading to a corresponding contraction in asphalt supply [3] - The asphalt production plan for March has been revised down, and the production in April has further declined to an absolute low in recent years [3] - The sample refinery's shipment volume has decreased significantly year-on-year and month-on-month, and the cumulative year-on-year decline has further expanded [3] - The refinery inventory has decreased month-on-month, the social inventory has turned negative year-on-year, and the overall commercial inventory level is low [3] - The asphalt fundamentals have marginal improvement expectations, and the BU price trend will follow the oil price, but the downside space is expected to be limited [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - Trump is prepared for both negotiation and conflict. Before the risk in the Strait of Hormuz is resolved, oil prices will continue to rise. Measures such as joint release of strategic reserves and lifting of sanctions cannot offset the daily supply loss of 15 million barrels and do not address the fundamental issue. As supply tightness persists, the oil price center will rise again. SC will be significantly stronger than the overseas market due to the sharp increase in Middle East tanker freight rates. Given the high risks in the oil market driven by geopolitical factors, it is recommended to consider call spread options [6] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - WTI's opening price was $100.51, closing at $88.87, with a maximum of $101.67, a minimum of $84.37, a decline of 9.53%, and a trading volume of 63.01 million lots. Brent's opening price was $107.5, closing at $96.07, with a maximum of $109.78, a minimum of $91.7, a decline of 9.72%, and a trading volume of 80.28 million lots. SC's opening price was 740.1 yuan/barrel, closing at 739.1 yuan/barrel, with a maximum of 799 yuan/barrel, a minimum of 715 yuan/barrel, a decline of 8.2%, and a trading volume of 20.81 million lots [5] - Trump claimed to have negotiated with Iran and ordered a 5 - day suspension of strikes on Iranian infrastructure, causing international oil prices to plummet. Iran later denied any contact with the US. The New York Times reported that the US military still considered deploying an airborne division's combat brigade to seize Kharg Island [5] 3.2 Industry News - Israeli officials said Iran was unlikely to agree to US demands, but Trump seemed determined to reach an agreement with Iran [7] - Iran's new supreme leader's military advisor, Mohsen Rezaei, emphasized that Iran would not stop the war until it received all compensation, all economic sanctions were lifted, and it obtained international legal guarantees that the US would not interfere in its affairs. He also said the dispute between Iran and the US had lasted since the 1979 Iranian Islamic Revolution and must be resolved [7] - Japan's government is considering intervening in the oil futures market [7] - US Energy Secretary Wright said the US might use the strategic petroleum reserve again, but the possibility was low. The release volume would be 1 - 1.5 million barrels per day, with a total of nearly 300 million barrels. The US is studying more measures to deal with oil prices [7] 3.3 Data Overview - The report presents multiple data charts, including global high - frequency crude oil inventory, EIA crude oil inventory, US crude oil production growth rate, Dtd Brent price, WTI spot price, Oman spot price, US gasoline consumption, and US diesel consumption, with data sources from Bloomberg, EIA, and wind [9][11][18]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent adjustments in domestic fuel prices in China due to the significant rise in international oil prices, primarily influenced by the escalating conflict between the U.S. and Iran, and the resulting supply risks in the Middle East [1][2]. Group 1: Domestic Fuel Price Adjustments - The National Development and Reform Commission announced temporary regulatory measures to adjust domestic fuel prices in response to soaring international oil prices [1]. - As of March 23, the domestic prices for gasoline and diesel were calculated to increase by 2205 yuan and 2120 yuan per ton, respectively, but were actually adjusted downwards by 1160 yuan and 1115 yuan [1]. - This adjustment translates to an increase of approximately 0.87 yuan per liter for gasoline and 0.95 yuan per liter for diesel, which is about 0.85 yuan less than what would have occurred without the regulatory intervention [1]. Group 2: International Oil Market Dynamics - The Strait of Hormuz, known as the "world's oil valve," has become a focal point due to ongoing geopolitical tensions, with shipping through the strait being significantly hindered [2]. - The continuous rise in international oil prices is supported by the reduced production from oil-rich countries like Saudi Arabia, which are facing capacity constraints [2]. - Short-term forecasts suggest that oil prices may remain strong due to ongoing supply risks, while medium to long-term projections indicate a potential shift towards an oversupply situation as OPEC+ increases production and North American oil fields are further developed [2].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the impact of the ongoing conflict in Iran on global oil prices, emphasizing that the duration of the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz is a critical variable that will determine future oil price trends [1][11]. Scenario Analysis - Bernstein Energy Team has developed three scenarios based on the duration of the blockade: - If the blockade lasts one month, Brent crude could peak at around $100 per barrel [7]. - If it extends to three months, the peak could rise to $140 per barrel, with a significant risk of global economic recession [7]. - In an extreme scenario of a six-month blockade, prices could reach $170 per barrel, with demand potentially shrinking by 2.3 million barrels per day, nearing the demand destruction seen during the 2008 financial crisis [7][8]. Supply Impact - A complete closure of the Strait of Hormuz could lead to a daily supply gap of up to 15.3 million barrels, with OPEC's crude and condensate loading already down by 13.8 million barrels per day [3][4]. - Current buffer mechanisms, including floating storage and strategic petroleum reserves, are insufficient to cover the long-term supply gap created by a prolonged blockade [3][10]. Market Sentiment - The market currently leans towards a "short conflict" scenario, with oil stocks pricing in an implied oil price range of $80 to $100 for 2026, not fully accounting for recession risks [2][10]. - Morgan Stanley warns that the current stability of Brent prices is misleading, as it is supported by short-term factors that may not last, and a significant price adjustment could occur if Atlantic basin inventories deplete [10]. Conclusion - The reopening of the Strait of Hormuz is the key variable that will ultimately dictate the trajectory of global oil prices through 2026 [11].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - After the Iranian oil and gas fields were attacked, the Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard issued an emergency warning. Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Qatar's oil facilities became legitimate targets for attack, causing short - term market concerns to surge and oil prices to rise again. It is expected that oil prices will remain high. For SC2605, operate strongly in the range of 800 - 840, and wait for opportunities to short at high levels in the long - term [3]. - In the short - term, continue to focus on changes in the geopolitical situation. In the medium - to - long - term, wait for the situation to ease before entering the market for reverse operations [6]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Daily Hints - Fundamental factors: The attack on Iran's South Pars Gas Field marked a major escalation of the conflict with the US and Israel. Iran announced counter - attacks on oil and gas targets in the entire Gulf region. The Fed maintained the target range of the benchmark interest rate at 3.50% - 3.75% and expected inflation to rise, unemployment to remain stable, and one interest rate cut this year. The US Vice - President and other key Trump administration officials planned to hold a closed - door meeting with oil executives, and measures regarding oil prices would be announced in the next 24 - 48 hours [3]. - Basis: On March 18, the spot price of Oman crude oil was $156.02 per barrel, and that of Qatar Marine crude oil was $99.07 per barrel. The basis was 21.42 yuan per barrel, with the spot at a premium to the futures [3]. - Inventory: In the week ending March 13, the API crude oil inventory in the US increased by 6.556 million barrels (expected increase of 73,000 barrels), the EIA inventory increased by 6.156 million barrels (expected increase of 383,000 barrels), and the Cushing area inventory increased by 944,000 barrels. As of March 18, the Shanghai crude oil futures inventory was 3.511 million barrels, unchanged [3]. - Market trend: The 20 - day moving average was upward, and the price was above the moving average [3]. - Main positions: As of March 10, the main positions of WTI and Brent crude oil were long, and the long positions increased [3]. 2. Recent News - Iran's Revolutionary Guard mentioned several oil and gas facilities in Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Qatar. An Israeli official confirmed the attack on the South Pars Gas Field. Since the US - Israel war on February 28, oil prices have soared nearly 50%. Iran has carried out retaliatory actions, and the key Strait of Hormuz has been effectively blocked. The UAE may assist in ensuring the safety of the Strait of Hormuz [5]. - The Trump administration temporarily exempted the "Jones Act" to reduce the transportation costs of oil, natural gas, and other commodities in the US. However, some analysts believe this exemption will have limited effects [5]. 3. Bullish and Bearish Concerns - Bullish factors: None mentioned. - Bearish factors: Trump intends to end the war quickly [6]. - Market drivers: In the short - term, continue to focus on changes in the geopolitical situation. In the medium - to - long - term, wait for the situation to ease before entering the market for reverse operations [6]. - Risk points: The Strait of Hormuz has guaranteed navigation, and the war cools down quickly [6]. 4. Fundamental Data - Futures market: The settlement price of Brent crude oil decreased by $0.50 (- 0.48%), WTI crude oil decreased by $0.75 (- 0.78%), SC crude oil increased by 6.70 (0.90%), and Oman crude oil increased by $0.54 (0.35%) [7]. - Spot market: The price of UK Brent Dtd increased by $9.38 (9.07%), WTI increased by $0.11 (0.11%), Oman crude oil decreased by $1.83 (- 1.16%), Shengli crude oil decreased by $0.63 (- 0.62%), and Dubai crude oil decreased by $2.00 (- 1.27%) [9]. - API inventory: In the week ending March 13, the API crude oil inventory increased by 6.556 million barrels to 472.774 million barrels [3][11]. - EIA inventory: In the week ending March 13, the EIA crude oil inventory increased by 6.156 million barrels to 449.259 million barrels [3][13]. 5. Position Data - WTI crude oil fund net long positions: As of March 10, the net long position was 228,015, an increase of 55,865 [17]. - Brent crude oil fund net long positions: As of March 10, the net long position was 351,032, an increase of 65,438 [19].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: ★★★ [1] - Fuel oil: ★★★ [1] - Low-sulfur fuel oil: ★★★ [1] - Asphalt: ★★★ [1] Core Views - The war in the Middle East has lasted for 19 days with no sign of easing, and the core variable of oil price trends depends on whether the Strait of Hormuz can resume smooth passage. Before the strait resumes safe passage, oil prices are likely to remain high, but market sentiment is cautious and price fluctuations may intensify [1]. - The market trading focus of fuel oil and low-sulfur fuel oil is on the actual passage capacity of the Strait of Hormuz. If the strait resumes passage, it will be a gradual process, and the supply constraint will not be immediately lifted. The supply of high-sulfur fuel oil and low-sulfur fuel oil is tight, and the market has strong support below, but prices will fluctuate widely [2]. - In April, the refining plan of local refineries decreased to 862,000 tons, and the inventory of refineries and social inventory are at a low level. With the improvement of the asphalt fundamentals and the momentum of supplementary increase, the BU futures price is expected to be strong, but attention should be paid to the potential pressure brought by the callback of crude oil prices [3]. Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - Iran's national security leader was assassinated by Israel, and the war has not eased. Trump's call for an expanded shipping alliance has not received a positive response from NATO allies [1]. - An oil facility in the UAE's Fujairah port was attacked by drones, and oil loading and unloading operations were suspended. Iraq and the Kurds reached an agreement to resume oil exports through the Kurdish pipeline, with a daily transport capacity of at least 150,000 - 200,000 barrels from the Kirkuk oil field and an additional 210,000 barrels from the Kurdish region [1]. - The core variable of oil price trends depends on the Strait of Hormuz. The daily supply gap of more than 10 million barrels is difficult to fill, and short-term measures are not enough to stabilize oil prices. Strategic oil reserves are mainly for emergency use, and major Middle Eastern oil-producing countries are facing supply bottlenecks [1]. Fuel Oil & Low-Sulfur Fuel Oil - The market trading focus is on the passage capacity of the Strait of Hormuz. If ships can pass through smoothly, it may drive more non-European and American shipowners to follow, gradually alleviating the supply interruption expectation [2]. - Even if the strait resumes passage, it will be a gradual process, and the supply constraint will not be immediately lifted. The supply of high-sulfur fuel oil is tight due to raw material and product shipment blockages and energy facility attacks. The supply of low-sulfur fuel oil is also showing signs of contraction, and the refined oil cracking spread provides support [2]. Asphalt - In April, the refining plan of local refineries decreased to 862,000 tons, the lowest level in recent years. The shipment volume of sample refineries increased this week, and the cumulative year-on-year decline narrowed. The refinery inventory remained flat, and the social inventory was basically the same as the same period last year, with little commercial inventory pressure [3]. - Since the geopolitical conflict, the prices of crude oil and downstream petrochemical futures have generally risen, while the previous increase of asphalt was relatively lagging. In mid-March, with the improvement of the asphalt fundamentals and the momentum of supplementary increase, the BU futures price is expected to be strong, but attention should be paid to the potential pressure brought by the callback of crude oil prices [3].