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Investment Rating - The report maintains a neutral rating on equities for both 3-month and 12-month asset allocations [2]. Core Insights - The US fiscal concerns are expected to increase the deficit by approximately $275 billion, or 0.8% of GDP, next year, primarily due to more generous individual tax cuts [1]. - Revenue from tariff increases is projected to offset the net increase in the deficit, with expectations of around $400 billion, or 1.25% of GDP, in revenue next year [1]. - Federal debt as a share of GDP is anticipated to rise to about 120% by 2035 from roughly 100% today, indicating a need for close monitoring of the US fiscal outlook [1]. - The report highlights a potential sharp decline in the US trade deficit with China, driven by a decrease in imports following frontloading ahead of tariffs [8]. - Global population aging is viewed as less concerning than previously thought, with healthier aging populations expected to work longer and mitigate economic drawbacks [9]. Summary by Sections US Fiscal Concerns - The House Republican reconciliation package is expected to increase the US deficit by around $275 billion next year [1]. - Tariff revenue is projected to be around $400 billion, which will likely offset the deficit increase [1]. - Federal debt is expected to reach approximately 120% of GDP by 2035 [1]. Trade Dynamics - The report anticipates a decline in the US trade deficit with China, with real goods imports increasing by 3% in April but declining by 4% in May [8]. - The annualized goods trade deficit was around $1.6 trillion in April, decreasing to $1.5 trillion in May [8]. Population Aging - Concerns about global population aging are considered overblown, as healthier aging populations are expected to work longer [9]. - The fertility rate required for long-term population stability is believed to be lower than the current global rate of 2.1, supporting continued population growth [9]. Hedge Fund and Mutual Fund Trends - The average US long/short equity hedge fund has maintained a return of 1% year-to-date, despite a challenging environment [11]. - Mutual funds have shown strong performance, with 50% of large-cap funds outperforming their benchmarks [11].

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - The report emphasizes the need for reforms in pension systems to ensure fiscal sustainability and adequate benefits in the context of global population aging [7] - It highlights the challenges of extending pension coverage to informal sector workers and stresses the importance of gender equity in pension provision [7] - The report concludes with recommendations for adapting pension systems to evolving economic and demographic realities, advocating for inclusive and sustainable solutions [7] Summary by Sections Aging Will Define the Evolution of Pensions and Social Insurance in the Coming Years - Population aging is a significant megatrend affecting economies and societies, necessitating adjustments in pension systems to manage the risks associated with a declining active population [13][14] - Countries with aging populations must adapt their pension systems to ensure adequate retirement income for an increasing number of retirees [31] Aging Will Affect All Regions of the World, Many at a Rapid Pace - By 2050, all regions except Sub-Saharan Africa are expected to have at least 15% of their populations aged 65 and over, indicating a global trend towards aging [25][26] - South Asia and the Middle East and North Africa will experience rapid aging, with significant implications for growth and productivity [26][27] Contributory and Social Pensions as Instruments for Income Protection in Retirement - The report analyzes government-mandated pension plans, including both contributory and non-contributory pension programs, to assess their effectiveness in providing income protection [33][34] - It utilizes data from the ASPIRE database to evaluate trends in pension expenditure and coverage across various countries [34] Pension Expenditures Are Significantly Affected by the Level of Aging - There is a positive correlation between the aging population and pension expenditure, with higher levels of aging leading to increased pension costs [46][48] - Regions like Europe and Central Asia exhibit the highest pension expenditures, averaging 7.4% of GDP, while Sub-Saharan Africa has the lowest at around 1% [53] Coverage of Pensions and Social Insurance - The extent of coverage in pension systems is largely determined by the level of formal employment and the demographic structure of the population [77] - High labor informality and unemployment rates limit the effectiveness of contributory pension programs, impacting overall coverage [77]