Core Viewpoint - Lululemon has faced significant macroeconomic and competitive challenges, leading to a substantial decline in its stock price from record highs, raising questions about its future growth potential and investment attractiveness [1][2]. Company Overview - Lululemon, founded in 1998, initially gained a strong foothold in the premium yoga and athleisure market through brand loyalty initiatives like free yoga classes and an expansion of its online and physical store presence [4]. - The company experienced setbacks, including a recall of see-through yoga pants in 2013 and leadership changes that impacted its stability [5][6]. Growth Strategy - In 2019, Lululemon launched the "Power of Three" plan aimed at doubling digital and men's revenue and quadrupling international revenue over five years, which it achieved ahead of schedule despite pandemic-related store closures [6][7]. - A subsequent "Power of Three x2" plan was introduced in 2022, targeting similar growth goals, including increasing total revenue from $6.3 billion to $12.5 billion by fiscal 2026 [9]. Financial Performance - Lululemon's revenue growth has slowed, with year-over-year growth rates dropping from 30% in FY 2022 to an expected 4% to 6% in FY 2024, while comparable sales growth has also decreased significantly [11][12]. - The company's gross margin peaked at 59.2% in FY 2024 but has faced pressure due to increased markdowns and inflation-related costs [11][12]. Market Position and Challenges - Lululemon's largest market, North America, has seen a slowdown in women's apparel sales amid tough macroeconomic conditions and increased competition from brands like Nike and Under Armour [11]. - The abrupt resignation of the chief product officer in May 2025 raised concerns about the company's ability to maintain its competitive edge [11]. Stock Valuation - At a stock price of $166, Lululemon is considered undervalued at 12 times next year's earnings, but this discount reflects a significant gap between its near-term outlook and Wall Street expectations [13]. - Analysts project modest revenue growth of 5% to $11.5 billion, with earnings per share expected to increase by 4%, indicating cautious sentiment regarding the company's recovery [12][13].

作者丨 Amrita Roy 编译 | 华尔街大事件 尽管 lululemon（ NADAQ： LULU ）基本面强劲且增长目标可实现，但 鉴于关税风险加大和收益率上升，上涨潜力有限，这可能会影响该公 司的增长计划。该公司于3月底公布了 2024财年第四季度财报 ，其营收和盈利均超出预期，这得益于其美国市场的增长趋于稳定，同时其国际 市场的增长势头也持续保持，尤其是在产品创新方面，该公司通过品牌宣传活动、专属会员活动以及新店开设等方式，加倍提升客户体验。 然而，投资者选择忽略其强劲的第四季度业绩，而将目光投向2025财年。根据管理层的指引，由于外汇和关税相关的不利因素，预计2025财年 的收入和盈利增长将放缓，而不断增长的库存引发了人们对未来利润压力加剧的担忧。 因此，最糟糕的情况可能已经反映在价格中 lululemon 的股价 在过去一个月中经历了对其收入和盈利预期的一系列 负面修正。 此外，管理层将能够推动其 Power of Three x2 的三大支柱的增长，即国际扩张、产品创新和客户体验，从而提高其运营地区的每用户平均收入 并提高盈利能力。因此，FENXS 将把该股评级上调至当前水平的"买入"，目标 ...

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - In Q4, total revenue excluding the 53rd week increased by 8% or 9% on a constant currency basis, reaching $3.6 billion [10][47] - Operating margin increased by 40 basis points to 28.9%, and earnings per share rose by 16% [11] - For the full year 2024, total revenue was $10.6 billion, with an adjusted operating margin increase of 50 basis points to 23.7% and adjusted earnings per share growth of 15% [12][45] - The company repurchased $332 million of stock in Q4, totaling $1.6 billion for the year, reflecting confidence in long-term prospects [11][54] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - In Q4, men's revenue increased by 12%, women's by 6%, and accessories and other grew by 9% [49] - The outerwear and second layers performed well for both women and men, with strong guest response to new product launches [14][19] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - In the Americas, revenue increased by 2% or 3% in constant currency, with comparable sales flat; Canada saw an 11% increase, while the U.S. increased by 1% [47] - China Mainland revenue surged by 38% or 39% in constant currency, with comparable sales up by 27% [47] - The Rest of World revenue grew by 22% or 26% in constant currency, with comparable sales increasing by 17% [47] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company aims to increase brand awareness, particularly in markets like France, Germany, and Japan, where awareness is currently low [24][25] - Plans for 2025 include a 10% growth in square footage through new store openings and optimizations, with a focus on international expansion [39][57] - The product pipeline for 2025 includes several new innovations and updates to existing franchises, aiming to drive guest acquisition and loyalty [22][39] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management acknowledged a cautious consumer environment due to macroeconomic factors, impacting traffic but noted positive responses to new product offerings [36][37] - The company expects modest growth in U.S. revenue for 2025, with a focus on controlling internal factors while navigating external challenges [38][41] - Confidence remains in the Power of Three x2 strategy, with ongoing investments in brand awareness and product innovation [60][68] Other Important Information - The company ended Q4 with approximately $2 billion in cash and cash equivalents, with inventory increasing by 9% [54] - Capital expenditures for Q4 were $235 million, primarily for business growth investments [53] Q&A Session Summary Question: Clarification on modest U.S. revenue growth expectations - Management defined modest growth as low-single-digit to mid-single-digit for the U.S., with Q1 not trending materially differently than Q4 [78][79] Question: Marketing strategy effectiveness and customer acquisition - Management reported strong engagement from community-based activations and noted thousands of guests registered for events, indicating effective customer acquisition strategies [85][88] Question: Tariff impact and mitigation strategies - Current guidance includes a 20 basis point headwind from tariffs, with ongoing monitoring and potential pricing adjustments if necessary [91] Question: International growth plans and activations - Management emphasized a customized approach to activations based on market maturity, with plans for significant engagement in new markets like Japan and South Korea [98] Question: Margin guidance and flexibility in cost structure - Management indicated that FX and tariff headwinds account for over 50% of the expected 100 basis point decline in operating margin for 2025, with flexibility in SG&A depending on sales performance [100][122]