Key Takeaways LULU expects Q3 sales to rise 3.8% y/y, even as earnings are projected to fall sharply.Persistent U.S. weakness, higher tariffs and markdowns are set to pressure margins in the quarter.International markets, led by Mainland China, are forecast to deliver strong double-digit growth.lululemon athletica inc. (LULU) is likely to witness top-line growth when it reports third-quarter fiscal 2025 results on Dec. 11, after market close. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for fiscal third-quarter sales is pe ...

Core Viewpoint - Lululemon has faced significant macroeconomic and competitive challenges, leading to a substantial decline in its stock price from record highs, raising questions about its future growth potential and investment attractiveness [1][2]. Company Overview - Lululemon, founded in 1998, initially gained a strong foothold in the premium yoga and athleisure market through brand loyalty initiatives like free yoga classes and an expansion of its online and physical store presence [4]. - The company experienced setbacks, including a recall of see-through yoga pants in 2013 and leadership changes that impacted its stability [5][6]. Growth Strategy - In 2019, Lululemon launched the "Power of Three" plan aimed at doubling digital and men's revenue and quadrupling international revenue over five years, which it achieved ahead of schedule despite pandemic-related store closures [6][7]. - A subsequent "Power of Three x2" plan was introduced in 2022, targeting similar growth goals, including increasing total revenue from $6.3 billion to $12.5 billion by fiscal 2026 [9]. Financial Performance - Lululemon's revenue growth has slowed, with year-over-year growth rates dropping from 30% in FY 2022 to an expected 4% to 6% in FY 2024, while comparable sales growth has also decreased significantly [11][12]. - The company's gross margin peaked at 59.2% in FY 2024 but has faced pressure due to increased markdowns and inflation-related costs [11][12]. Market Position and Challenges - Lululemon's largest market, North America, has seen a slowdown in women's apparel sales amid tough macroeconomic conditions and increased competition from brands like Nike and Under Armour [11]. - The abrupt resignation of the chief product officer in May 2025 raised concerns about the company's ability to maintain its competitive edge [11]. Stock Valuation - At a stock price of $166, Lululemon is considered undervalued at 12 times next year's earnings, but this discount reflects a significant gap between its near-term outlook and Wall Street expectations [13]. - Analysts project modest revenue growth of 5% to $11.5 billion, with earnings per share expected to increase by 4%, indicating cautious sentiment regarding the company's recovery [12][13].

作者丨 Amrita Roy 编译 | 华尔街大事件 尽管 lululemon（ NADAQ： LULU ）基本面强劲且增长目标可实现，但 鉴于关税风险加大和收益率上升，上涨潜力有限，这可能会影响该公 司的增长计划。该公司于3月底公布了 2024财年第四季度财报 ，其营收和盈利均超出预期，这得益于其美国市场的增长趋于稳定，同时其国际 市场的增长势头也持续保持，尤其是在产品创新方面，该公司通过品牌宣传活动、专属会员活动以及新店开设等方式，加倍提升客户体验。 然而，投资者选择忽略其强劲的第四季度业绩，而将目光投向2025财年。根据管理层的指引，由于外汇和关税相关的不利因素，预计2025财年 的收入和盈利增长将放缓，而不断增长的库存引发了人们对未来利润压力加剧的担忧。 因此，最糟糕的情况可能已经反映在价格中 lululemon 的股价 在过去一个月中经历了对其收入和盈利预期的一系列 负面修正。 此外，管理层将能够推动其 Power of Three x2 的三大支柱的增长，即国际扩张、产品创新和客户体验，从而提高其运营地区的每用户平均收入 并提高盈利能力。因此，FENXS 将把该股评级上调至当前水平的"买入"，目标 ...

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - In Q4, total revenue excluding the 53rd week increased by 8% or 9% on a constant currency basis, reaching $3.6 billion [10][47] - Operating margin increased by 40 basis points to 28.9%, and earnings per share rose by 16% [11] - For the full year 2024, total revenue was $10.6 billion, with an adjusted operating margin increase of 50 basis points to 23.7% and adjusted earnings per share growth of 15% [12][45] - The company repurchased $332 million of stock in Q4, totaling $1.6 billion for the year, reflecting confidence in long-term prospects [11][54] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - In Q4, men's revenue increased by 12%, women's by 6%, and accessories and other grew by 9% [49] - The outerwear and second layers performed well for both women and men, with strong guest response to new product launches [14][19] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - In the Americas, revenue increased by 2% or 3% in constant currency, with comparable sales flat; Canada saw an 11% increase, while the U.S. increased by 1% [47] - China Mainland revenue surged by 38% or 39% in constant currency, with comparable sales up by 27% [47] - The Rest of World revenue grew by 22% or 26% in constant currency, with comparable sales increasing by 17% [47] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company aims to increase brand awareness, particularly in markets like France, Germany, and Japan, where awareness is currently low [24][25] - Plans for 2025 include a 10% growth in square footage through new store openings and optimizations, with a focus on international expansion [39][57] - The product pipeline for 2025 includes several new innovations and updates to existing franchises, aiming to drive guest acquisition and loyalty [22][39] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management acknowledged a cautious consumer environment due to macroeconomic factors, impacting traffic but noted positive responses to new product offerings [36][37] - The company expects modest growth in U.S. revenue for 2025, with a focus on controlling internal factors while navigating external challenges [38][41] - Confidence remains in the Power of Three x2 strategy, with ongoing investments in brand awareness and product innovation [60][68] Other Important Information - The company ended Q4 with approximately $2 billion in cash and cash equivalents, with inventory increasing by 9% [54] - Capital expenditures for Q4 were $235 million, primarily for business growth investments [53] Q&A Session Summary Question: Clarification on modest U.S. revenue growth expectations - Management defined modest growth as low-single-digit to mid-single-digit for the U.S., with Q1 not trending materially differently than Q4 [78][79] Question: Marketing strategy effectiveness and customer acquisition - Management reported strong engagement from community-based activations and noted thousands of guests registered for events, indicating effective customer acquisition strategies [85][88] Question: Tariff impact and mitigation strategies - Current guidance includes a 20 basis point headwind from tariffs, with ongoing monitoring and potential pricing adjustments if necessary [91] Question: International growth plans and activations - Management emphasized a customized approach to activations based on market maturity, with plans for significant engagement in new markets like Japan and South Korea [98] Question: Margin guidance and flexibility in cost structure - Management indicated that FX and tariff headwinds account for over 50% of the expected 100 basis point decline in operating margin for 2025, with flexibility in SG&A depending on sales performance [100][122]