Core Viewpoint - Lululemon Athletica's growth outlook in the U.S. has softened due to a shift in consumer preferences towards new fabric innovations, leading to a downgrade from Overweight to Neutral by JP Morgan analyst Matthew R. Boss, with a price forecast reduction from $303 to $224 [1][2]. Group 1: Product Performance and Market Trends - The U.S. product catalyst launch has been postponed to the second half of 2025 as customers favored new fabric innovations like Align No Line and Be Calm, while showing less interest in Updated Core-Seasonal colors, which constitute approximately 40% of inventory [2]. - Second quarter U.S. revenue growth is now projected at +1.2% year-over-year, a decrease of 50 basis points from the first quarter's +1.7%, reflecting a +1.0% two-year stack, as around 80% of the product assortment faces conversion challenges [3]. - The U.S. premium activewear market is experiencing a slowdown, with Euromonitor forecasting only 1.0% growth in U.S. sports apparel for 2025/26, compared to 11.0% growth in FY21-FY24 [5]. Group 2: Management Strategies and Financial Outlook - Management plans to enhance investments in the second half of 2025, including expanding Align No Line to all stores by September and utilizing air freight to expedite inventory deliveries, indicating confidence in first quarter metrics and the U.S. women's business [4]. - Increased markdowns due to product assortment challenges and higher fixed cost leverage across operating expenses and SG&A are expected to further constrain Lululemon's multi-year margins, contributing to the Neutral rating [7]. Group 3: International Market Potential - Lululemon's international market penetration presents a significant growth opportunity, although recent analyses indicate a more normalized growth pace in Mainland China, which was previously viewed as a strong growth driver [6].

Company Overview - lululemon athletica inc. is focusing on category expansion to drive growth in a maturing U.S. athleisure market, reporting only 1% comparable store sales growth and 2% U.S. revenue growth in Q1 fiscal 2025 [2][10] - The brand is gaining market share in premium activewear, supported by positive consumer response to new product offerings [2] Product Innovation - Innovations such as the No Line Align and new lines like Daydrift and BeCalm are broadening lululemon's appeal beyond core products, emphasizing product newness and technical solutions across five key activities: yoga, run, train, golf, and tennis [3][10] - The company is shifting its merchandise mix from seasonal colors to silhouettes that provide differentiated value, optimizing its product offerings [4] Market Strategy - lululemon is focusing on franchise development and scaling successful limited-distribution launches, while also adjusting inventory, pricing, and assortment to adapt to market changes [4][5] - The brand is experiencing significant international growth, with sales in China increasing by 22% and 17% growth in other global markets, indicating potential for expansion outside North America [5][10] Competitive Landscape - lululemon's competitors, including NIKE and Under Armour, are facing challenges in a saturated athleisure market, with NIKE reporting a 12% revenue decline and Under Armour experiencing a 10% sales drop in North America [6][7][8] - The competitive pressure is prompting these companies to refocus on core sports and performance segments, which may impact their athleisure offerings that overlap with lululemon [7][8] Financial Performance - lululemon's shares have declined by 40.9% year to date, compared to a 26.4% decline in the industry [9] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for lululemon's fiscal 2025 earnings suggests a year-over-year decline of 1%, while fiscal 2026 estimates indicate an 8.3% growth [12]

作者丨 Amrita Roy 编译 | 华尔街大事件 尽管 lululemon（ NADAQ： LULU ）基本面强劲且增长目标可实现，但 鉴于关税风险加大和收益率上升，上涨潜力有限，这可能会影响该公 司的增长计划。该公司于3月底公布了 2024财年第四季度财报 ，其营收和盈利均超出预期，这得益于其美国市场的增长趋于稳定，同时其国际 市场的增长势头也持续保持，尤其是在产品创新方面，该公司通过品牌宣传活动、专属会员活动以及新店开设等方式，加倍提升客户体验。 然而，投资者选择忽略其强劲的第四季度业绩，而将目光投向2025财年。根据管理层的指引，由于外汇和关税相关的不利因素，预计2025财年 的收入和盈利增长将放缓，而不断增长的库存引发了人们对未来利润压力加剧的担忧。 因此，最糟糕的情况可能已经反映在价格中 lululemon 的股价 在过去一个月中经历了对其收入和盈利预期的一系列 负面修正。 此外，管理层将能够推动其 Power of Three x2 的三大支柱的增长，即国际扩张、产品创新和客户体验，从而提高其运营地区的每用户平均收入 并提高盈利能力。因此，FENXS 将把该股评级上调至当前水平的"买入"，目标 ...

Financial Performance Summary - Lululemon's total revenue for Q4 FY24 reached $3.21 billion, representing a 15.6% year-over-year growth and a 0.6% beat against consensus estimates [1] - Gross profit for the quarter was $1.90 billion, with a gross profit margin of 59.4%, which is an increase from the previous year [1] - Operating income was $0.91 billion, with an operating profit margin of 28.5%, reflecting a strong performance [1] - Net income for Q4 was $0.93 billion, resulting in a net profit margin of 29.0% [1] - Comparable sales growth was 12.0% year-over-year, indicating solid demand [1] 2025 Full Year Guidance - Revenue is projected to be between $11.15 billion and $11.3 billion, reflecting a 5%-7% increase, with a negative impact from foreign exchange of 1% [2] - The company plans to open 40-45 new stores, primarily in the Americas and China, with a 10% increase in store area [3] - Gross margin is expected to decline by approximately 60 basis points due to fixed cost deleveraging and foreign exchange impacts [3] - Operating profit margin is anticipated to decrease by about 100 basis points, with an effective tax rate around 30% [3] Q1 2025 Guidance - Revenue for Q1 is expected to be between $2.34 billion and $2.36 billion, representing a 6%-7% increase, with a 1% negative impact from foreign exchange [4] - The company plans to open 3 new stores during the quarter [4] - Gross margin is expected to remain flat compared to Q1 2024, while operating profit margin is projected to decrease by approximately 120 basis points [4] Executive Insights - In Q4, total revenue growth excluding the 53rd week was 8%, with a fixed currency growth of 9% [5] - The adjusted operating profit margin for FY24 increased by 50 basis points to 23.7%, and adjusted earnings per share grew by 15% [5] - The company repurchased $3.32 billion in stock, totaling $1.6 billion for the entire year [5] Product Innovation and Brand Strategy - Strong performance across various product categories, particularly in outdoor and second-layer clothing, with new holiday season products gaining customer recognition [6] - New product launches include women's Glow Up and Daydrift lines, and men's Mile Maker shorts, aimed at enhancing product offerings [7] - The brand strategy focuses on increasing global brand awareness, particularly in markets like France, Germany, and Japan, where awareness is currently low [7][8] - New brand platform "Live Like You Are Alive" was introduced to enhance brand engagement [9]