Pricing Trends in Apparel and Footwear - A third-party data source tracking e-commerce prices indicates a slight increase in apparel prices, but it's not a huge jump from previous trends [2][3][4] - The apparel industry has seen a mix shift into higher price point categories like work wear and tailored pants, contributing to gross margin highs [6][7] - Economists believe the full impact of tariffs hasn't been seen yet due to inventory timing, with potential one-time hits later on [8][9] - Apparel retailers typically hold three months of inventory, suggesting that the real pricing impact from tariffs will likely flow through P&Ls from November onwards [9][10] - Footwear businesses, often run as wholesale models, may see price increases more clearly in the first half of next year due to forward order books locked in for six months [11][12] Company-Specific Observations - Torrid and Anthropology (within Urban Outfitters) have shown the biggest price jumps since Liberation Day, potentially due to mix shift and strategic assortment changes [14][15] - On the footwear side, Hey Dude, Macy's, and Kohl's are showing more price increases compared to pre-liberation day levels, possibly due to a mix shift dynamic [16] - Department stores are trying to fortify themselves with popular and premium brands, actively adjusting their business model [17] Data Considerations - The pricing data factors in discounting and mix shift, but it's not possible to see exactly how these are factoring into the pricing [3] - The prices reflect the final selling price, taking into account discount codes and what shoppers actually paid [5]

Hey, with us now we have US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessant. Uh Mr. . Secretary, thanks so much for being with us.Greatly appreciate it. Um I want to ask you about the government shutdown. It's over now.There had been estimates before that it might take 1% GDP uh in the fourth quarter uh from the US economy. With it coming to an end, what are your what's your best estimate right now about uh how much uh the shutdown will have ended up costing the American people and how quickly the economy will bounce back ...

Tariff Impact - New tariffs impacting approximately 70 countries worldwide have taken effect [1] - Brazil and India face tariff rates of 50% and 25% respectively, with India's rate set to rise to 50% by the end of the month [1] - Other countries face tariffs ranging from 15% to 35% [1] Economic Implications - American companies will initially bear the burden of these tariffs on goods entering the US, such as through ports in Long Beach and Los Angeles [2] - Companies will decide whether to absorb the tariff costs or pass them on to American consumers through higher prices [2] - The US government has collected approximately $30 billion in tariff revenue as of July [2] - It is suggested that American companies, and potentially consumers, are paying these tariffs [3] - Price increases on goods ranging from clothing from Vietnam to coffee from Brazil are expected to become noticeable to consumers within months [3]

Company Performance & Strategy - Procter & Gamble's (P&G) organic sales increased by 175 billion, placing it in the 84th percentile of the S&P 500 over the past seven years [2] - P&G's profit increased by 6 billion, ranking in the 92nd percentile of the S&P 500 [2] - P&G created 180 billion in incremental market capitalization over the past seven years [3] - The company strategically consolidated its portfolio into categories used daily or more, where performance drives brand choice [7] Consumer Behavior & Market Trends - P&G is observing modest trade-down within its branded portfolio, specifically within different Tide offerings and towards brands like Gain [5] - Private label shares in North America and Europe are currently down, indicating consumers still value performance [6] - The company is also seeing continued trade-up, emphasizing that stronger performance enhances consumer relevance and value [8] Financial Outlook & Challenges - P&G anticipates a 1 billion tariff hit in the new fiscal year [1][8] - The company plans to implement some price increases, combined with innovation, to offset the tariff impact [9] - Tariffs, especially on naturally sourced ingredients without US substitutes, are inherently inflationary and could potentially incentivize companies to move production out of the US [15][17] Leadership Transition - CEO John Muller will step down at the end of the year, transitioning into the executive chair role [1] - Shalesh Jajurkar, the current COO, will take over as the leader of the next phase of growth and value creation [3]

Economic Performance - The actual economy continues to perform very well, contrasting with negative perceptions from polling data [1] - Inflation data is observed to be at or around the Federal Reserve's target of 2% [1] - The job market remains strong, supporting continued employment growth [2] Tariffs and Inflation - Concerns exist regarding tariffs potentially feeding through the system, causing inflation and disruption [2] - The effects of tariffs may take time to manifest in the economy due to existing inventory priced at old rates [3] - Price increases are anticipated as old inventory is depleted and new inventory is introduced [4]

Core Viewpoint - Ralph Lauren plans to raise prices to offset tariff costs, supported by strong demand from high-end customers [1] Pricing Strategy - The company is assessing additional pricing actions for fall 2025 and spring 2026 to mitigate tariff impacts, building on proactive pricing already planned for 2025 in North America and Asia [2] - Ralph Lauren has increased its average unit retail (AUR) every quarter for the past eight years, with a high single-digit increase in AUR expected for the current quarter compared to the previous year [2] Brand and Quality Enhancement - The company has elevated its AUR by enhancing brand quality, adjusting geographic and channel mixes, reducing discounts, and selectively raising prices [3] - These strategies provide confidence in managing cost headwinds while maintaining strong pricing power [3] Consumer Resilience - Despite weakening consumer confidence in the U.S. and potential broader consumer pullback, Ralph Lauren's core consumers remain resilient [4] - The company has not observed changes in sales trajectories across its regions (APAC, EMEA, North America), with full-price sales continuing to grow [5] Market Context - The remarks from Ralph Lauren follow reports of soft demand from luxury conglomerate LVMH due to weaker consumer confidence in China and other markets [5] - In contrast, luxury group Richemont plans to limit price increases to avoid customer backlash seen by some competitors [6]