Carter's (NYSE:CRI) Q4 2025 Earnings call February 27, 2026 08:30 AM ET Company ParticipantsDouglas C. Palladini - Director, President and CEOJay Sole - Managing DirectorJonathan Keypour - VP of Equity ResearchPaul Lejuez - Managing Director and Head of Consumer Discretionary ResearchRichard F. Westenberger - CFO and COOSean McHugh - VP and TreasurerConference Call ParticipantsChristopher Nardone - VP and Equity Research AnalystIke Boruchow - Managing Director and Senior Equity Consumer AnalystJim Chartier ...

Carter's (NYSE:CRI) Q4 2025 Earnings call February 27, 2026 08:30 AM ET Speaker6Welcome to Carter's fourth quarter fiscal 2025 earnings conference call. On the call are Doug Palladini, Chief Executive Officer and President, Richard Westenberger, Chief Financial Officer and Chief Operating Officer, and Sean McHugh, Treasurer. Please note that today's call is being recorded. I'll now turn the call over to Mr. McHugh.Speaker9Thank you. Good morning, everyone. We issued our fourth quarter 2025 earnings release ...

Core Insights - The company achieved $48 million in savings in 2025 through productivity initiatives, focusing on supply chain optimizations and operational excellence [1] - There was a significant increase in digital platform adoption, with quotes processed rising over 130% year-over-year to nearly $7 billion by the end of 2025 [1] - Strategic mergers and acquisitions remain a key growth strategy, exemplified by the acquisition of Pleasant Valley Homes to enhance prefabricated housing solutions [1] Operational Performance - The company consolidated 25 facilities in 2025, totaling 55 over two years, to better align capacity with a soft market while maintaining a 92% on-time delivery rate [2] - Single-family builder customers are shifting towards smaller home designs and interest rate buydowns to improve affordability, leading to lower sales dollars per start [2] - A notable sales deceleration occurred in late Q4 as homebuilders delayed starts to manage excess inventory [2] Market Challenges and Future Guidance - Performance in 2025 was affected by housing affordability issues, low consumer confidence, and falling commodity prices, particularly OSB dropping below $350 per thousand board foot [3] - The guidance for 2026 anticipates flat year-over-year single-family and multifamily starts, with a stronger performance expected in the second half as inventory levels normalize [3] - Management plans to implement $100 million in cost actions for 2026, including $75 million in direct reductions and $25 million in cost avoidance across SG&A [3] - Multifamily results are projected to remain subdued until at least the latter half of 2026 due to a 9- to 12-month lag between starts and the company's first sale [3] - Free cash flow is estimated at approximately $500 million, factoring in a $300 million working capital investment in preparation for increased sales [3] - The SAP implementation will continue with a refined rollout plan in 2026, informed by pilot insights from July 2025 to enhance long-term operational efficiency [3]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company's fourth quarter net sales were approximately $2.7 billion, an increase of 2.4% as reported, but a decrease of approximately 3.3% on a constant basis compared to the prior year [5][11] - Adjusted EPS for the quarter was $2, up approximately 3% versus the prior year, while the full year adjusted EPS was $8.96, a decrease of approximately 7.5% [5][6] - Free cash flow for the year was approximately $620 million, with a stock repurchase of approximately 1.3 million shares for $149 million [6][18] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Global Ceramic segment had sales of just under $1.1 billion, a 6.1% increase as reported, while Flooring North America sales were $893 million, a 4.8% decrease as reported [14][15] - Flooring Rest of the World reported sales of $737 million, a 6.5% increase as reported, but a 3.5% decrease on a constant basis [17] - The operating income for Global Ceramic was $63 million, or 5.9%, while Flooring North America had an operating income of $39 million, or 4.4% [15][16] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Approximately 55% of sales were in the U.S., 30% in Europe, and 15% in other geographies [6] - Housing turnover in major regions remains at historical lows due to affordability challenges and economic uncertainty, impacting consumer confidence [6][7] - In Europe, high building costs and labor constraints continue to impede residential construction, although there are moderate recoveries in Southern and Eastern Europe [8] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focusing on innovative product introductions and marketing actions to stimulate sales in soft markets [9] - Capital expenditures for 2026 are estimated at approximately $480 million, focusing on product innovation and cost reduction [19] - The company anticipates leveraging the housing recovery and improving its position through restructuring and operational improvements [10][31] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management noted that while home renovation remains soft, there is optimism for improvement in existing home sales due to lower mortgage rates and increased housing supply [31] - The company expects competitive market conditions to persist, with pricing pressures likely to remain [30] - Management anticipates that 2026 will be a transitional year with some improvement in remodeling activity and overall sales and earnings expected to improve [31] Other Important Information - The company has initiated numerous restructuring actions and operational improvements that lowered its cost position [10] - The balance sheet remains strong, with gross debt of $2 billion and leverage of 0.9 times adjusted EBITDA [19] - The company plans to continue its stock buyback strategy as part of its financial management [88] Q&A Session Summary Question: Expectations for price and mix in 2026 - Management anticipates continued pressure in the market, with inflation levels similar to 2025, but expects pricing, improved mix, and productivity to help offset inflation [34][35] Question: Inventory management ahead of spring selling season - Inventories were taken down in the fourth quarter, and management believes they are close to where they need to be, with optimism from customers for the year [41][42] Question: Outlook for 2026 and pricing pressures - Management expects price, mix, and volume to improve, with pricing initiatives in place to recover inflation and enhance product mix [59][60] Question: Impact of tariffs and cost management - Tariffs range from 15%-50%, and management has taken actions to offset these costs through pricing and supply chain management [92][93] Question: Pricing stabilization in Flooring Rest of the World - Management noted that geopolitical events are impacting consumer confidence, but targeted price increases are expected to have a slightly positive effect as the year progresses [95]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company's fourth quarter net sales were approximately $2.7 billion, an increase of 2.4% as reported, but a decrease of approximately 3.3% on a constant basis compared to the prior year [5][11] - Adjusted EPS for the quarter was $2, up approximately 3% versus the prior year, with full year adjusted EPS at $8.96, a decrease of approximately 7.5% [5][6] - Free cash flow for the year was approximately $620 million, with a stock repurchase of approximately 1.3 million shares for $149 million [6][19] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Global Ceramic segment had sales of just under $1.1 billion, a 6.1% increase as reported, with operating income on an adjusted basis of $63 million, or 5.9% [14][15] - Flooring North America sales were $893 million, a 4.8% decrease as reported, with operating income of $39 million, or 4.4% [15][16] - Flooring Rest of the World sales were $737 million, a 6.5% increase as reported, with operating income of $65 million, or 8.8% [17] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Approximately 55% of sales were in the U.S., 30% in Europe, and 15% in other geographies [6] - U.S. housing turnover remains at historical lows due to affordability challenges and economic uncertainty, while European markets face high building costs and labor constraints [6][8] - Commercial channel outperformed residential, with strength in healthcare, education, and hospitality [8][24] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focusing on innovative product introductions, marketing actions, and promotional activities to stimulate sales in soft markets [9] - Restructuring actions and operational improvements were initiated to lower cost positions and benefit long-term performance [10] - The company plans to invest approximately $480 million in 2026, focusing on product innovation, cost reduction, and general maintenance [19] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management noted that consumer confidence remains weak due to inflation, employment concerns, and geopolitical tensions, impacting discretionary investments [6][7] - Lower mortgage rates and potential government actions are expected to benefit housing turnover [7][31] - The company anticipates that 2026 will be a transitional year with some improvement in remodeling activity and existing home sales [31] Other Important Information - The company managed the impact of U.S. tariffs through pricing actions and supply chain optimization [9][30] - The balance sheet remains strong, with gross debt of $2 billion and leverage of 0.9x adjusted EBITDA [19] Q&A Session All Questions and Answers Question: Expectations for price and mix in 2026 - Management anticipates continued pressure in the market, with inflation levels similar to 2025, but expects pricing, improved mix, and productivity to help offset inflation [34][35] Question: Inventory management ahead of spring selling season - Inventories were taken down in the fourth quarter, and management believes they are close to where they need to be, with optimism from customers for the year [41][43] Question: Outlook for 2026 and consumer activity - Management reflects a transitional year with expectations for lower mortgage rates and increased housing supply to benefit existing home sales, anticipating some improvement in pricing mix and volume [46][47] Question: Pricing backdrop in the builder channel - The builder channel is weak, with pressure to maintain prices, and management is implementing targeted price increases to offset inflation [82] Question: Impact of tariffs and pricing strategies - Tariffs range from 15%-50%, and management is taking actions to offset them through pricing and supply chain management [92]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The fourth quarter net sales were approximately $2.7 billion, an increase of 2.4% as reported, but a decrease of approximately 3.3% on a constant basis compared to the prior year [4] - Adjusted EPS for the quarter was $2, up approximately 3% versus the prior year, while the full year adjusted EPS was $8.96, a decrease of approximately 7.5% [5][13] - Free cash flow for the year was approximately $620 million, with stock repurchases of approximately 1.3 million shares for $149 million [5] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Global Ceramic segment had sales of just under $1.1 billion, a 6.1% increase as reported, and flat on a constant basis [13] - Flooring North America sales were $893 million, a 4.8% decrease as reported, or 6.2% on a constant basis, primarily due to a decline in the residential soft surface business [14] - Flooring Rest of the World sales were $737 million, a 6.5% increase as reported, but a 3.5% decrease on a constant basis [16] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Approximately 55% of sales were in the U.S., 30% in Europe, and 15% in other geographies [5] - Housing turnover in major regions remains at historical lows due to affordability challenges and economic uncertainty [5] - In Europe, high building costs and labor constraints continue to impede residential construction, although moderate recoveries have emerged in Southern and Eastern Europe [8] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focusing on innovative product introductions and marketing actions to stimulate sales in soft markets [9] - Capital expenditures for 2026 are planned at approximately $480 million, focusing on product innovation and cost reduction [18] - The company anticipates benefits from product mix, productivity, and cost reductions to offset headwinds from higher energy and labor costs [28] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management noted that while home renovation remains soft, there is optimism for improvement in existing home sales due to lower mortgage rates and increased housing supply [44] - The company expects 2026 to be a transitional year with some improvement in remodeling activity and anticipates exceeding last year's earnings [44][46] - Management highlighted that pricing pressures are likely to remain due to competitive market conditions [32] Other Important Information - The company initiated numerous restructuring actions and operational improvements that lowered its cost position [10] - The balance sheet remains strong, with gross debt of $2 billion and leverage of 0.9 times adjusted EBITDA [18] Q&A Session Summary Question: Expectations for price and mix in 2026 - Management anticipates continued pressure in the market, with inflation levels similar to 2025, but expects pricing, improved mix, and productivity to help offset inflation [32][33] Question: Inventory management ahead of spring selling season - Inventories were reduced in the fourth quarter, and management believes they are close to where they need to be, with optimism from customers for the upcoming year [39][41] Question: Outlook for 2026 and pricing dynamics - Management expects price, mix, and volume to improve, driven by pricing initiatives and a stable commercial business [57][58] Question: Impact of tariffs and pricing strategies - Tariffs range from 15%-50%, and management has taken actions to offset these costs through pricing and supply chain management [93] Question: Pricing pressure in Flooring Rest of the World - Management noted strong price competition but anticipates a slightly positive price effect as they move through the year [97]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - In 2025, adjusted EBITDA grew 11% to over $1.9 billion, with an adjusted EBITDA margin expansion of 30 basis points to a record 4.9% [5][24] - Adjusted earnings per share (EPS) reached a record of $3.98, reflecting a 26% growth, which was more than double the adjusted EBITDA growth rate [5][24] - Fourth quarter net sales increased 3.3% to $9.8 billion, driven by total case volume growth of 0.8% and food cost inflation and mix impact of 2.5% [21][22] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Independent restaurant case volume grew 4.1%, marking the strongest net new independent account growth of the year at approximately 4.7% [9][22] - Healthcare and hospitality segments grew 2.9% and 3.1%, respectively, in the fourth quarter, with healthcare achieving 21 consecutive quarters of share gains [9][22] - Chain restaurant volume decreased by 3.4%, primarily due to slower industry traffic and strategic exits [22] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Chain restaurant foot traffic was down 2.8% in the fourth quarter, reflecting a deceleration of 230 basis points from the third quarter [7] - Despite industry headwinds, the company remains confident in capturing profitable market share in a highly fragmented industry [8] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on executing its long-range plan from 2025 to 2027, emphasizing operational excellence and productivity initiatives [4][5] - The introduction of a 100% variable compensation structure for the sales force is expected to drive long-term growth and higher earnings potential [15][32] - The company aims to enhance its technology leadership through new AI capabilities and improve customer service experiences [12][14] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in achieving 2026 financial targets despite weather-related disruptions in early 2026 [30][31] - The company anticipates a lower inflationary environment compared to 2025, projecting adjusted EBITDA growth of 9%-13% and adjusted diluted EPS growth of 18%-24% for 2026 [29] - Management remains optimistic about the underlying momentum of the business, particularly in independent case growth [41][74] Other Important Information - The company repurchased approximately $930 million of its shares and completed two tuck-in acquisitions for over $130 million in 2025 [6][27] - The corporate credit rating was upgraded by Moody's to Ba1, reflecting solid operating performance and improved credit metrics [28] Q&A Session Summary Question: Can you provide more color on quarter-to-date volumes and underlying momentum? - Management noted strong momentum in early January, rebounding from weather-related disruptions, and highlighted the strongest organic independent case growth in two years [41] Question: What are your expectations regarding inflation and its impact on gross profit per case? - Management indicated that self-help initiatives remain the primary drivers of gross profits, and while disinflation had a slight negative impact, strong results were still achieved [44] Question: How do you view the sales force expansion and its impact on case growth? - Management clarified that the 7% sales force expansion included internal transfers, and productivity is expected to ramp up significantly in the latter half of 2026 [50] Question: Is the net new business growth driven by headcount growth or existing salespeople? - Management stated that net new business growth is driven by both increased productivity from existing sales force and consistent hiring over the past three years [60] Question: What is the expected impact of the new compensation structure on seller productivity? - Management expects seller productivity to remain neutral to positive during the transition to the new compensation structure, emphasizing a thoughtful approach to individual transitions [82]

Core Viewpoint - CSX is navigating a challenging environment with subdued demand and limited growth opportunities, while focusing on cost management and operational efficiency to improve margins and free cash flow in 2026 [3][5][13]. Financial Performance - In Q4, CSX reported a 1% increase in volumes but a 1% decline in revenue, with operating income and earnings per share down approximately 9% and 7% year-over-year, respectively [4][5]. - The quarter included about $50 million in charges related to workforce and technology actions, impacting earnings by $0.02 per share [6][5]. - Total revenue per unit declined by 2% due to negative business mix and weaker coal prices [8]. Operational Highlights - The operations team achieved improved safety results and network performance, with significant declines in FRA injury and accident rates [2]. - Network fluidity improved from Q1 to Q4, with better metrics in velocity, cars online, dwell, and trip plan compliance [2]. Segment Performance - Intermodal services showed strength with a 5% increase in volume and a 7% rise in revenue, attributed to faster transit times and improved connectivity [11]. - Merchandise volume and revenue both declined by 2%, with notable weaknesses in chemicals and forest products [9]. - Automotive volume decreased by 5% due to supply constraints, while fertilizer volume rose by 7% [10]. 2026 Outlook - CSX anticipates a soft demand environment in 2026, projecting low single-digit revenue growth and operating margin expansion of 200 to 300 basis points [5][13]. - Capital expenditures are expected to be below $2.4 billion, focusing on safety, reliability, and productivity projects [14]. - Free cash flow is projected to increase by at least 50% compared to 2025, driven by higher earnings and lower capital outlays [14]. Strategic Initiatives - The company has identified over 100 initiatives to reduce non-labor spending, including cuts to outside services and improved asset utilization [6]. - CSX is focusing on workforce optimization and tighter discretionary spending management to enhance productivity [13].

Core Insights - W.W. Grainger, Inc. (GWW) is a major distributor of maintenance, repair, and operating products, with a market cap of $45.3 billion [1] - The company has faced significant stock underperformance, declining 22.9% over the past year compared to an 11% increase in the S&P 500 Index [2] - GWW's stock has also underperformed relative to the Industrial Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLI), which gained 5.2% over the same period [3] Financial Performance - GWW reported Q3 results with an adjusted EPS of $10.21, exceeding Wall Street's expectation of $9.93, and revenue of $4.7 billion, surpassing the forecast of $4.6 billion [5] - For the full fiscal year, GWW expects adjusted EPS between $39 and $39.75, and revenue between $17.8 billion and $18 billion [5] - Analysts project a 1.3% growth in EPS to $39.46 for the current fiscal year, with a mixed earnings surprise history [6] Analyst Sentiment - Among 19 analysts covering GWW, the consensus rating is a "Hold," with three "Strong Buy," 13 "Holds," one "Moderate Sell," and two "Strong Sells" [6] - The current analyst sentiment is more bearish than two months ago, with one analyst suggesting a "Strong Sell" [7] Strategic Initiatives - GWW is facing challenges from inflation and tariffs, which have impacted margins, but has implemented productivity initiatives and price hikes to mitigate costs [4] - The company is streamlining its portfolio by exiting the UK business and investing in digital transformation to enhance growth and profitability [4]

Core Insights - Wheels Up Experience Inc. reported a revenue of $185.5 million for Q3 2025, a decrease of 4% year-over-year, primarily due to reduced flight revenue from discontinued membership programs [6][9] - The company achieved total gross bookings of $266.6 million, reflecting a 5% increase year-over-year, driven by a 14% growth in on-demand charter offerings [6][9] - The company is focused on fleet modernization, with the Phenom 300 becoming the largest fleet type in revenue service and the Challenger fleet reaching programmatic scale [4][6] Financial Performance - The net loss for Q3 2025 was $83.7 million, or $(0.12) per share, compared to a net loss of $57.7 million in Q3 2024, representing a 45% increase in losses [6][9][18] - Adjusted EBITDA loss was $23.2 million, while Adjusted EBITDAR loss was $19.7 million, both impacted by transitory fleet inefficiencies [6][9] - The company reported a quarter-end liquidity of $225 million, including $125 million in cash and cash equivalents [6][9] Operational Highlights - Wheels Up achieved a completion rate of 99% and an on-time performance of 89%, marking improvements of 1 percentage point and 4 percentage points year-over-year, respectively [7][9] - The company expects nearly 50% of its premium jet fleet to consist of Phenom and Challenger aircraft by the end of 2025, with a complete fleet transition anticipated by year-end 2026 [7][9] - The successful launch of the Signature Membership program has contributed to strong sales, with nearly 20% of total block sales for September and October coming from this new offering [7][9] Strategic Initiatives - Productivity initiatives are projected to exceed the original goal of $50 million, with expected annual run-rate cost savings of $70 million or more starting in Q1 2026 [6][9] - The company raised approximately $50 million in equity capital during Q3 2025 to support its fleet modernization program and general corporate purposes [7][9] - Wheels Up sold three non-core services businesses for $21.5 million, further streamlining operations and focusing on its fleet modernization strategy [8][9]