Summary of China Property Monthly Tracker Industry Overview - The report focuses on the **Chinese property market**, highlighting significant declines in new property starts, sales, and construction activities, indicating a downturn in the sector. Key Points Market Performance - **New starts** in October 2025 fell to the lowest monthly level (excluding January and February) since the current downturn began [2][9] - **Primary sales** volume and value declined by **19%** and **24%** year-over-year (YoY), respectively, while construction activities (completion and new starts) plunged nearly **30%** YoY [2][9] - **Secondary sales volume** also fell short of expectations, contributing to a broader weakening in market sentiment and income expectations [2][9] Price Trends - The **average selling price (ASP)** for properties continued to decline, with primary ASPs down **0.5%** month-over-month (MoM) and secondary ASPs down **0.7%** MoM in October [9][31] - The **ASP** in tier-1 cities showed a **0.3%** decline for primary and **0.9%** for secondary markets, indicating a divergence in pricing trends [9][31] Future Expectations - For November 2025, expectations include: 1. Continued price weakness, especially in secondary ASPs across all cities [3][11] 2. An expansion in the YoY decline for primary transaction volume and value, with new starts remaining weak [3][11] 3. A narrowing trend in secondary transaction volume YoY, but still recording substantial declines [3][11] 4. A further decline in land sales volume and a potential negative YoY change in land sales value [3][11] Developer Insights - Developers' land acquisition profitability improved slightly month-over-month in October, with land acquisition spending averaging **28%** of contract sales, down from **54%** in September [2][10] - The report notes that developers are likely to be less aggressive in land banking for the remainder of the year, having largely met their full-year land replenishment plans [18][10] Government Policies and Market Sentiment - The report highlights ongoing discussions regarding the removal of housing purchase restrictions in core districts of tier-1 cities, which could positively impact home purchases [4][10] - There is a noted deterioration in the demand-side strength score, which dropped to **37 out of 100**, indicating a challenging environment for home purchases and secondary market performance [53][55] Construction and Investment Trends - Construction activities are expected to see a high single-digit percentage decline YoY for completions and a **30-40%** decline for new starts in November [17][11] - Developers are expected to focus on smaller projects with better ASP visibility and easier product positioning, rather than larger land parcels requiring phased development [18][10] Financial Metrics - The report provides a detailed summary of key market indicators, including: - **GFA sold**: **61 million sqm** in October, down **18.8%** YoY - **Property sales**: **Rmb 0.6 trillion**, down **24.3%** YoY - **ASP**: **Rmb 9,723/sqm**, down **6.8%** YoY - **New starts**: **37 million sqm**, down **29.5%** YoY - **Completions**: **37 million sqm**, down **28.2%** YoY [20][29] Conclusion - The Chinese property market is experiencing significant challenges, with declining sales, construction activities, and prices. The outlook for November remains cautious, with expectations of continued weakness in both primary and secondary markets. Developers are adjusting their strategies in response to market conditions, and government policies may play a crucial role in shaping future demand.

Financial Performance - China Vanke reported a deeper third-quarter loss [1] Market Trends - Prolonged property market downturn continues to weigh on Vanke's sales [1]

Investment Rating - The report indicates a negative trend in the primary property market, with a weighted average property price decrease of 1.7% month-over-month annualized in April, and a year-over-year decline of 4.0% [2][6]. Core Insights - The divergence in property prices between top-tier and lower-tier cities continues, with Tier-1 cities experiencing a sequential increase in primary home prices, while Tier-2 and Tier-3 cities saw declines [6][10]. - Despite ongoing easing policies, the number of cities with sequentially higher property prices has decreased in both primary and secondary markets [6][10]. - The report emphasizes that the 70-city data pertains only to primary market transactions, with secondary market data indicating price declines of 5%-15% over the past year [6][10]. Summary by Sections Price Changes - The weighted average property price in the primary market fell by 1.7% month-over-month annualized in April, compared to a 2.0% decline in March [2][6]. - Year-on-year, the weighted average new home prices decreased by 4.0% in April, an improvement from the 4.5% decline in March [2][6]. City Tier Analysis - Tier-1 cities saw a sequential increase in property prices of 1.7% month-over-month annualized in April, up from 0.8% in March [6][10]. - Conversely, Tier-2 and Tier-3 cities experienced declines of 1.4% and 3.5% month-over-month annualized, respectively [6][10]. Market Dynamics - The report notes a 10% year-over-year decrease in new home transaction volume in major cities as of May [10]. - Policymakers have intensified housing easing efforts, including a recent 25 basis point cut on the housing provident fund mortgage rate, to counteract the property downturn [10].