Property Market Downturn

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高盛:中国4月 70 个大中城市新建商品住宅平均价格进一步下跌
Goldman Sachs· 2025-05-19 08:55
Investment Rating - The report indicates a negative trend in the primary property market, with a weighted average property price decrease of 1.7% month-over-month annualized in April, and a year-over-year decline of 4.0% [2][6]. Core Insights - The divergence in property prices between top-tier and lower-tier cities continues, with Tier-1 cities experiencing a sequential increase in primary home prices, while Tier-2 and Tier-3 cities saw declines [6][10]. - Despite ongoing easing policies, the number of cities with sequentially higher property prices has decreased in both primary and secondary markets [6][10]. - The report emphasizes that the 70-city data pertains only to primary market transactions, with secondary market data indicating price declines of 5%-15% over the past year [6][10]. Summary by Sections Price Changes - The weighted average property price in the primary market fell by 1.7% month-over-month annualized in April, compared to a 2.0% decline in March [2][6]. - Year-on-year, the weighted average new home prices decreased by 4.0% in April, an improvement from the 4.5% decline in March [2][6]. City Tier Analysis - Tier-1 cities saw a sequential increase in property prices of 1.7% month-over-month annualized in April, up from 0.8% in March [6][10]. - Conversely, Tier-2 and Tier-3 cities experienced declines of 1.4% and 3.5% month-over-month annualized, respectively [6][10]. Market Dynamics - The report notes a 10% year-over-year decrease in new home transaction volume in major cities as of May [10]. - Policymakers have intensified housing easing efforts, including a recent 25 basis point cut on the housing provident fund mortgage rate, to counteract the property downturn [10].