Summary of the Conference Call Transcript Industry Overview - **Industry**: China Economic Outlook - **Key Focus**: Public capital expenditure (capex) and private consumption trends in early 2026 Core Insights 1. **Growth Projections**: Early 2026 growth is expected to be led by public capex, with a potential pull towards 5% growth in Q1, although sustainability is questioned due to weak consumer and property sectors [1][6][8] 2. **GDP Tracking**: Q4 2025 GDP is projected to remain below 4.5%, despite a possible year-end rebound driven by fiscal expansion and resilient external demand [3][8] 3. **Public Capex Initiatives**: - Central budget for infrastructure projects increased to Rmb295 billion in Q1 2026 from Rmb200 billion in Q1 2025 - Local government bond issuance plan for Q1 2026 is Rmb665 billion, up from Rmb422 billion in the previous year [6][10] - New venture capital guidance aims to mobilize over Rmb1 trillion [10] 4. **Consumption Trends**: - Consumer spending is lagging, with retail momentum fading post-holiday and subdued service consumption - Continued support for goods trade-in programs, but initial allocations are smaller than the previous year [6][8][30] 5. **Inflation Dynamics**: - Recent upticks in CPI and PPI are not indicative of sustained reflation; core CPI remains muted due to weak final demand [7][8][25] - Inflation increases are primarily driven by commodities like gold and coal, rather than broad-based demand [7][8][25] Additional Important Points 1. **Trade-in Scheme Adjustments**: The 2026 trade-in scheme maintains a similar scale to 2025 but starts softer, with reduced subsidies for home appliances and a narrower range of eligible products [4][30] 2. **Monitoring Indicators**: Key indicators to watch in the coming months include: - Infrastructure bond issuance pace - Consumer goods trade-in program rollout - Mortgage-subsidy pilot designs post-NPC in March [8][9] 3. **Long-term Outlook**: A moderation in growth is anticipated from Q2 2026, with potential housing policy adjustments and incremental support for consumption and social welfare in the second half of the year [8][9] This summary encapsulates the key points from the conference call, focusing on the economic outlook for China, particularly regarding public investment and consumer behavior.

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook for India's economy, with an upward revision of the GDP growth forecast for CY25 to 6.6% year-over-year, reflecting strong investment growth driven by public capital expenditure [6][11]. Core Insights - India's real GDP growth surged to 7.4% year-over-year in Q1 CY25, up from 6.4% in Q4 CY24, surpassing consensus expectations [3][6]. - The growth in real Gross Value Added (GVA) was recorded at 6.8% year-over-year in Q1 CY25, an increase from 6.5% in the previous quarter [2][6]. - Strong investment growth was noted, particularly in public capital expenditure, which exceeded revised estimates by 0.1% of GDP for FY25 [6][7]. - The agricultural sector showed growth of 5.4% year-over-year, while manufacturing and services sectors also demonstrated robust performance [6][7]. - Despite a contraction in private consumption expenditure growth, fixed investment growth rose sharply to 9.4% year-over-year, aided by back-loaded public capex [6][7]. Summary by Sections Economic Growth - Real GDP growth in Q1 CY25 was 7.4% year-over-year, with a sequential increase of 2.1% [2][3]. - Nominal GDP growth reached 10.8% year-over-year, up from 10.3% in Q4 CY24 [2][5]. Sector Performance - The agricultural sector grew by 5.4% year-over-year, while manufacturing growth hit a three-quarter high of 4.8% [6][7]. - Services growth remained strong at 7.3% year-over-year, primarily driven by financial services and real estate [6][7]. Investment Trends - Central government public capex in March increased by 68% year-over-year, significantly contributing to GDP growth [6][7]. - The report anticipates continued strong rural consumption, although policy uncertainty may dampen future investment growth [6][7].