American hot money piling into some foreign markets produced gigantic gains in 2025 (Spain +49%). The S&P 500 Index soared by 16.4% in 2025. Since the Liberation Day bloodletting bottom on April 8, it soared by 38%. Over the past three years of 2023-2025, it soared by 79%. Since the March 2020 low, the index soared by 208%, despite two sell-offs in between. These are huge gains.In March 2020, the Fed unleashed its mega-massive QE program, to outdo all prior QE programs, and cut short-term interest rates to ...

Core Viewpoint - Analysts are predicting a potential bullish trend for cryptocurrencies, particularly Bitcoin, in Q1 2026, driven by several macroeconomic factors that could lead to significant price increases [1][2]. Group 1: Macroeconomic Trends - The end of the Federal Reserve's quantitative tightening (QT) is expected to remove a headwind for risk assets, historically leading to a potential Bitcoin rally of up to 40% when central banks stop contracting their balance sheets [3]. - Interest rate cuts are anticipated to resume in 2026, with forecasts suggesting rates could drop to between 3% and 3.25%, which typically enhances liquidity and increases interest in speculative assets like cryptocurrencies [4]. - Improved short-end liquidity is expected as the Fed plans to start technical buying of Treasury bills to manage market liquidity, easing funding pressures and potentially reducing short-term rates [5][6].

Group 1 - The meeting was characterized by a focus on being "well positioned," suggesting a cautious but stable outlook from the Fed [1][2][5] - The Fed Chair expressed skepticism about the accuracy of monthly job gains, indicating a potential overstatement of 60,000 jobs, which could imply a more negative job report [2][6] - Inflationary risks were deemphasized, with the Fed Chair framing inflation as less of a concern and highlighting progress made in controlling it [3][4][5] Group 2 - The Fed has cut rates by 175 basis points since September, yet the 2-year Treasury yield remains unchanged, indicating a disconnect between Fed actions and market responses [6][8] - Despite the rate cuts, long-term interest rates, such as the 30-year Treasury, have increased by approximately 75 basis points, suggesting that lower Fed rates may not be beneficial for long-term rates [8][9] - The yield curve steepened following the Fed's cut, with the difference between 2-year and 30-year rates reaching about 124 basis points, indicating potential future increases in long-term interest rates [10]

This isn’t QE lol.Ending QT doesn’t mean QE starts, the Fed can just pause and sit neutral.QE is when they buy long-duration assets in size, usually trillions, to push down long-term rates.Right now rates are still high and markets are near ATHs.The last times QE began, rates were at or near 0% and markets were cooked.Mike Alfred (@mikealfred):BREAKING: The Fed will begin buying $40B of short term bills starting December 12. QE is back. ...

And let's bring in our first panel now, which is Barry Knap, the director of research at IronIides Macro, and Tom Lee, Fundstrat Global Advisors Managing Partner. Welcome to you both. Tom, you're more I don't want to make it sound like you have a point of view other than you're expecting a more hawkish Fed and Barry, you're expecting one that's a little bit more doubbish.So Tom, you're more in line with consensus right now. What would that look like. And why are you still bullish on stock prices.>> Uh, well ...

Let's ask David Wessel. He's the senior fellow in economic studies at Brookings. David, it's great to see you. >> Good to see you, Cali.>> Let's I guess go piece by piece here on the the rate cut itself. There will be those like Moran, I assume, pushing for a half point cut, but when you look at the backup in bond yields, you think that's this is probably not going to be the moment for that, right. >> I think that's right.He'll make his stand. Uh maybe he's still running for chair or something. And we know ...

Fed’s Lagging Balance Sheet: The Hidden Risks of Post-QE Tightening. Photo by BeInCrypto Welcome to the US Crypto News Morning Briefing—your essential rundown of the most important developments in crypto for the day ahead. Grab a coffee as global markets enter a period of unprecedented friction with the era of synchronized economic cycles coming to an end. While the US quietly restores liquidity, China remains locked in a state of deflation, and Japan’s rising bond yields threaten to destabilize global ca ...

Federal Reserve and Economic Outlook - The Federal Reserve's quantitative tightening (QT) is perceived to be over, which is expected to provide a tailwind for the market [1][2] - Anticipation of rate cuts in the near future is expected to drive market performance in the first half of the year [2][3] Consumer Behavior and Market Dynamics - Consumer spending remains strong, as evidenced by Black Friday sales, contradicting negative predictions from Wall Street [4][6] - Household net worth is at an all-time high, creating a virtuous cycle where increased net worth boosts market performance and vice versa [6][7] Investment Opportunities - There is optimism for a year-end rally, with potential for a 3-4% increase in the market before the year's end [9][10] - Specific stocks such as Amazon and Palo Alto Networks are highlighted as strong investment opportunities due to their growth potential and strategic partnerships [12][13][14] Market Trends and Predictions - The market has shown resilience, bouncing back after recent downturns, and there is a belief that breaking new highs could trigger further rallies [9][10] - The current growth cycle is expected to continue for at least nine more months, suggesting a favorable environment for equities [11]

QT is ending.QE is coming.@dgt10011 explains what will happen to asset prices. https://t.co/HnuUUWsb4w ...

Core Insights - The Federal Reserve's quantitative tightening (QT) has concluded, with a total asset reduction of $2.43 trillion over three years and five months, representing a 27% decrease from its peak [2] - The Fed's balance sheet decreased by $37 billion in November, reaching $6.53 trillion, with a significant shift in asset composition expected as Mortgage-Backed Securities (MBS) are replaced by Treasury bills [1][4] QT and Asset Composition - The Fed's MBS holdings decreased by $16 billion in November, totaling $2.05 trillion, a 25% decline from the peak [4] - Treasury securities saw a reduction of $4 billion in November, with a total of $4.19 trillion, marking a 27.4% decrease from the peak in June 2022 [8] - The Fed plans to continue reducing MBS until they are fully off the balance sheet, while increasing T-bills, which currently stand at $195 billion [4][8] Repo Market Dynamics - The Standing Repo Facility (SRF) was utilized by banks to manage liquidity pressures, with a peak balance of $50 billion at the end of October, dropping back to zero shortly after [11][13] - The Fed expressed disappointment in banks for underutilizing the SRF, which contributed to spikes in repo market rates [14] - The SRF successfully mitigated liquidity pressures in the repo market, preventing a repeat of the 2019 blowout scenario [20] Financial Metrics and Economic Indicators - The Fed's assets as a percentage of GDP fell to 21.4% in November, indicating a potential further decline if the balance sheet remains flat while the economy grows [28] - The Treasury General Account (TGA) currently holds $908 billion, which has permanently increased the Fed's balance sheet size since the Financial Crisis [27]