US M2 is at ATH.Japan M2 is at ATH.EU M2 is at ATH.China M2 is at ATH.And the crypto market is acting like every major central bank is about to start QT. https://t.co/3tGwlu87Yb ...

Mortgage rates could move sooner than many homebuyers expect but not because of interest-rate cuts — rather because of how the Federal Reserve manages itsbalance sheet. Federal Reserve Governor Stephen Miran said Feb. 10 that the central bank’s $6.6 trillion balance sheet needs to be smaller to reduce its footprint in financial markets and give monetary policymakers options in the event of a future economic crisis. It could also result in lower mortgage rates for the stagnated U.S. housing market. The R ...

Core Viewpoint - Kevin Warsh, nominated to be the next Federal Reserve chair, aims to significantly reduce the central bank's multi-trillion-dollar balance sheet, but experts believe this will be challenging and slow to achieve, if possible at all [1]. Group 1: Federal Reserve's Balance Sheet Management - The Fed's current holdings and the management regime for interest rates in a cash-rich environment make it difficult to unwind the balance sheet while maintaining market stability and achieving monetary policy goals [2]. - Warsh has previously argued that the large Fed holdings distort financial conditions and should be significantly reduced, with the proceeds used to lower interest rates to support households and small businesses [3]. - The Fed's balance sheet expanded to a peak of $9 trillion during the COVID-19 pandemic due to crisis buying, and a contraction process known as quantitative tightening (QT) has since reduced it to $6.6 trillion by late 2025 [4]. Group 2: Challenges in Reducing the Balance Sheet - The use of the balance sheet as a monetary policy tool has become standard, especially with the likelihood of short-term rates being cut to near-zero levels during economic troubles [5]. - Experts indicate that while Warsh may desire a smaller balance sheet and reduced Fed presence in financial markets, actually achieving this reduction is unlikely, as banks prefer the current level of reserves [6].

Core Viewpoint - The selection of Kevin Warsh as a potential Fed chair has shifted the focus from short-term interest rates to the Federal Reserve's $6.6 trillion balance sheet and its implications for market dynamics [5][6]. Group 1: Warsh's Critique of the Fed - Warsh has been a vocal critic of the Fed's balance sheet expansion, arguing that it has artificially depressed borrowing rates and encouraged excessive risk-taking in financial markets [4][9]. - He advocates for a reduction in the Fed's balance sheet and a redefinition of the relationship between the Fed and the Treasury, similar to the 1951 Treasury-Fed accord [10][11]. Group 2: Market Implications - A potential pullback by the Fed under Warsh's leadership could conflict with the administration's goal of lowering long-term borrowing costs, increasing pressure on the Treasury to manage market conditions [2]. - The Fed's balance sheet management is crucial for the functioning of major markets, affecting how financial institutions borrow and lend [3]. Group 3: Monetary Policy Framework - The Fed's current ample-reserves framework aims to ensure sufficient liquidity in the banking system, but a shift towards a smaller balance sheet could lead to increased borrowing costs and volatility [16][20]. - Analysts suggest that Warsh may have limited scope to implement significant policy changes due to the need for consensus within the Federal Open Market Committee [19]. Group 4: Future Considerations - The market remains cautious as traders await clearer signals from Warsh regarding his policy stance, indicating that the current status quo may persist until then [21].

Core Viewpoint - The nomination of Kevin Warsh for Fed Chair has led to significant market reactions, particularly in gold and silver, indicating a potential shift in monetary policy and investor sentiment towards inflation and quantitative easing [1][10]. Market Reactions - Gold and silver experienced extreme volatility, with silver prices collapsing by 39% from an all-time high of $121.78 per ounce to a low of about $75, before recovering slightly to $85, marking a 30% decline from the peak [10]. - Gold prices fell by 14% from $5,575 to an intraday low of $4,700, later stabilizing at $4,909, reflecting a 10% drop from the previous day [13]. - The dollar index (DXY) rose by 1.7% from a low of 95.55 to 97.15, indicating a strengthening dollar amidst the market turmoil [14]. Federal Reserve and Monetary Policy - Warsh has consistently criticized the Fed's quantitative easing (QE) policies and the size of its balance sheet, advocating for a reduction in the balance sheet in collaboration with the Treasury to avoid market disruptions [3][7]. - His views align with Treasury Secretary Bessent, who has also criticized the Fed for creating "perverse incentives" and failing to control inflation effectively [4]. - Warsh's historical stance as an inflation hawk suggests he may continue to advocate for tighter monetary policies, although the impact of technology on inflation remains uncertain [8][9]. Investment Sentiment - The recent market movements reflect a classic mania in silver, which had surged by 317% over the past nine months and 500% since early 2023, leading to profit-taking and subsequent price drops [11][12]. - Stocks showed minimal reaction to the Warsh nomination, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite experiencing slight declines, indicating that investors may be more focused on other factors such as inflation data and corporate earnings [17]. - The Treasury market remained largely unaffected by the nomination, with yields remaining stable [18]. Cryptocurrency Market - Cryptocurrencies, particularly Bitcoin and Ethereum, faced declines following the Warsh nomination, with Bitcoin dropping from $90,000 to around $84,000, reflecting a 31% decrease from its all-time high [19].

American hot money piling into some foreign markets produced gigantic gains in 2025 (Spain +49%). The S&P 500 Index soared by 16.4% in 2025. Since the Liberation Day bloodletting bottom on April 8, it soared by 38%. Over the past three years of 2023-2025, it soared by 79%. Since the March 2020 low, the index soared by 208%, despite two sell-offs in between. These are huge gains.In March 2020, the Fed unleashed its mega-massive QE program, to outdo all prior QE programs, and cut short-term interest rates to ...

Core Viewpoint - Analysts are predicting a potential bullish trend for cryptocurrencies, particularly Bitcoin, in Q1 2026, driven by several macroeconomic factors that could lead to significant price increases [1][2]. Group 1: Macroeconomic Trends - The end of the Federal Reserve's quantitative tightening (QT) is expected to remove a headwind for risk assets, historically leading to a potential Bitcoin rally of up to 40% when central banks stop contracting their balance sheets [3]. - Interest rate cuts are anticipated to resume in 2026, with forecasts suggesting rates could drop to between 3% and 3.25%, which typically enhances liquidity and increases interest in speculative assets like cryptocurrencies [4]. - Improved short-end liquidity is expected as the Fed plans to start technical buying of Treasury bills to manage market liquidity, easing funding pressures and potentially reducing short-term rates [5][6].

Group 1 - The meeting was characterized by a focus on being "well positioned," suggesting a cautious but stable outlook from the Fed [1][2][5] - The Fed Chair expressed skepticism about the accuracy of monthly job gains, indicating a potential overstatement of 60,000 jobs, which could imply a more negative job report [2][6] - Inflationary risks were deemphasized, with the Fed Chair framing inflation as less of a concern and highlighting progress made in controlling it [3][4][5] Group 2 - The Fed has cut rates by 175 basis points since September, yet the 2-year Treasury yield remains unchanged, indicating a disconnect between Fed actions and market responses [6][8] - Despite the rate cuts, long-term interest rates, such as the 30-year Treasury, have increased by approximately 75 basis points, suggesting that lower Fed rates may not be beneficial for long-term rates [8][9] - The yield curve steepened following the Fed's cut, with the difference between 2-year and 30-year rates reaching about 124 basis points, indicating potential future increases in long-term interest rates [10]

This isn’t QE lol.Ending QT doesn’t mean QE starts, the Fed can just pause and sit neutral.QE is when they buy long-duration assets in size, usually trillions, to push down long-term rates.Right now rates are still high and markets are near ATHs.The last times QE began, rates were at or near 0% and markets were cooked.Mike Alfred (@mikealfred):BREAKING: The Fed will begin buying $40B of short term bills starting December 12. QE is back. ...

分组1 - The discussion centers around differing expectations for the Federal Reserve's monetary policy, with one analyst anticipating a hawkish stance while the other leans towards a dovish outlook [1][4] - The market has been preparing for a potential hawkish cut, with clients expecting uncertainty regarding future cuts, possibly not occurring until June [2][3] - A dovish cut could also be interpreted positively if the Fed indicates a willingness to consider more rate cuts in the future [3][4] 分组2 - The current market conditions show that indices are near all-time highs, which may mitigate the perceived risks associated with a hawkish Fed [6][7] - The market has adjusted to the Fed's slightly hawkish institutional stance, which may be influenced by external pressures [7][8] - The Fed's approach to quantitative easing (QE) is crucial, as it involves buying Treasury notes and mortgage-backed securities, which lowers long-term rates and influences equity prices [11][12]