The Standing Repo Facility got a bit of use on Sept. 15 (corporate tax day) amid minor liquidity strains in the repo market. Total assets on the Fed’s balance sheet declined by $15 billion in September, to $6.59 trillion. This $15 billion decline was a mix of $24 billion of declines and $9 billion of increases:$24 billion of declines spread over four accounts:MBS: -$17 billionTreasury securities: -$4 billionUnamortized premiums: -$2 billionPandemic-era SPVs: -$1 billion$9 billion of increases spread over tw ...

Bitcoin (BTC) jumped to its highest in over two months as the U.S. government shut down operations, likely setting the stage for a positive fiat liquidity impulse. The leading cryptocurrency has risen nearly 4% in the past 24 hours, with prices briefly rising to $119,455 for the first time since mid-August, CoinDesk data show. Other major tokens such as ether (ETH), XRP (XRP), solana (SOL) and dogecoin (DOGE) have risen 4% to 7%. The CoinDesk 20 Index (CD20) has jumped 5% to 4,217 points. The rally fol ...

Core Insights - Federal Reserve liquidity facilities experienced lower than expected interest from Wall Street as the third quarter ended, despite a rise in repo rates indicating liquidity pressure [1][4][6] Group 1: Market Conditions - Quarter ends typically present challenging money market conditions, with firms reducing market participation and liquidity management becoming difficult due to volatile interest rates [2] - This quarter end was anticipated to be particularly turbulent due to declining overall liquidity levels as the Fed continues its quantitative tightening (QT) process [2][4] Group 2: Repo Rates and Liquidity - Repo rates spiked, with the general collateral rate opening at 4.45%, reaching a high of 4.60%, and closing at 4.35% [4] - Concerns arose regarding a potential repeat of the 2019 liquidity shortage that led to a spike in short-term borrowing rates, prompting Fed intervention [3][5] Group 3: Federal Reserve's Strategy - The Fed's QT aims to reduce excess liquidity injected during the COVID pandemic, but with reverse repo usage at negligible levels, QT is diminishing underlying liquidity, increasing market friction risks [4][5] - Market participants had initially estimated that the Standing Repo Facility (SRF) could see up to $50 billion in usage, but actual borrowing was only $11 billion, indicating less extreme conditions than expected [6] Group 4: SRF Functionality and Concerns - The SRF is designed to act as a buffer for temporary liquidity shortfalls, but doubts persist about its effectiveness, as firms may hesitate to use it for fear of signaling financial trouble [6][7]

By Michael S. Derby and Gertrude Chavez-Dreyfuss NEW YORK (Reuters) -Federal Reserve liquidity facilities saw much less interest from Wall Street than expected on Tuesday as the third quarter came to a surprisingly quiet close. On Tuesday, money market funds and other eligible firms parked $49.1 billion at the central bank’s overnight reverse repo facility. Meanwhile, the Standing Repo Facility, or SRF, lent $6 billion to eligible firms. Both of those tallies were much less than the admittedly uncertain ...

Core Insights - The share of below-3% mortgages has declined to 20.4% in Q2, the smallest since Q2 2021, indicating a slow exit from the "lock-in effect" for homeowners and investors [1][8] - The share of 3%-3.99% mortgages decreased by 30 basis points to 32.1%, the lowest since Q3 2019, reflecting a broader trend of rising mortgage rates [1][8] - The overall mortgage landscape is characterized by a significant decline in ultra-low-rate mortgages, with the share of 4.0%-4.99% mortgages dropping to 17.9%, the lowest since 2013 [8][11] Mortgage Rate Trends - The ultra-low mortgage rates that emerged in early 2020 led to a surge in refinancing, with 65% of all mortgages outstanding having rates of 3.99% or below by Q1 2022 [2][5] - The share of mortgages with rates of 6% or higher rose to 19.7% in Q2, the highest since Q4 2015, as home sales and refinancing activities have significantly declined [11][12] - The share of mortgages in the 5.0%-5.99% range has remained stable at around 9.9% in Q2, indicating a balance between new originations and payoffs [12][13] Economic Context - The ultra-low-rate mortgages were a result of the Federal Reserve's quantitative easing (QE) policies, which began in 2009 and intensified in 2020, leading to historically low mortgage rates [15][16] - The Fed has since initiated quantitative tightening (QT), shedding $2.36 trillion in assets to address the inflation and housing market distortions caused by previous policies [16][18] - The period of negative "real" mortgage rates, where mortgage rates were below inflation, peaked with rates below 3% and CPI inflation exceeding 7%, creating unsustainable conditions in the housing market [18]

By Michael S. Derby (Reuters) -A day ahead of what is expected to be very volatile conditions in money markets, a top Federal Reserve Bank of New York official said on Monday that markets are still flush with liquidity, central bank tools are in place to manage temporary hiccups, and in any case some level of chop in money market rates is healthy. “Our indicators currently suggest that reserves are still abundant,” said Julie Remache, deputy manager of the bank’s System Open Market Account and Head of ...

By Michael S. Derby WASHINGTON (Reuters) -Federal Reserve interest rate-control liquidity facilities are set for a heavy-duty workout into the close of the month, with big implications for how much farther the U.S. central bank can take its balance sheet wind-down process. The Fed's reserve repo facility and its still largely untested Standing Repo Facility (SRF) are likely to see major inflows as banks and other firms navigate normal month- and quarter-end volatility, in an environment where central ban ...

Core Viewpoint - The bond market's reaction to Federal Reserve actions is critical, with inflation trends being a more significant driver of bond yields than Fed rate cuts [3][4][6]. Group 1: Federal Reserve Actions - The Federal Reserve's potential rate cuts are largely anticipated by the market, but the actual impact on borrowing costs, such as mortgage rates, remains uncertain [2][4]. - The Fed's balance sheet management, including quantitative easing (QE) and quantitative tightening (QT), is crucial for influencing long-term bond yields [9][10]. Group 2: Inflation and Economic Conditions - Inflation remains a key concern, with current rates around 3% and showing signs of increasing, which complicates the economic landscape and poses risks of stagflation [3][7]. - The bond market is experiencing hesitancy in longer-term investments due to inflation expectations and significant fiscal deficits in various countries [6][7]. Group 3: Market Dynamics - There is a possibility of a bond market rally following Fed rate cuts, but it may not be sufficient to lower mortgage rates below 6% [8]. - The dynamics of supply and demand for bonds, particularly longer-term bonds, are influenced by investor confidence and the Fed's actions regarding its bond holdings [6][7].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the growing criticism of the Bank of England's approach to managing interest on reserves and the implications of quantitative easing (QE) on public finances, highlighting the urgent need for reform in light of rising government borrowing costs and losses incurred by the Bank. Group 1: Criticism of Current Policies - Louise Haigh calls for a more strategic unwind of QE and criticizes the excessive cash given to commercial banks at taxpayers' expense [1] - Richard Tice highlights that the current approach is leading to tens of billions in losses and urges the Bank to stop selling bonds and reduce interest payments to banks [2][5] - The Bank of England's profits have diminished significantly, with forecasts indicating a potential loss exceeding £130 billion by 2033 [2][3] Group 2: Financial Implications of QE - The QE scheme has created £895 billion in electronic money, leading to annual costs exceeding £20 billion, which is viewed as a catastrophic expense during fiscal constraints [4] - The Treasury is now required to refund the Bank, which initially profited over £120 billion from QE but is now facing substantial losses due to higher interest rates and lower bond prices [3][4] - The current fiscal situation necessitates a reevaluation of the Bank's policies to alleviate pressure on government borrowing costs [8][15] Group 3: Calls for Coordination and Reform - There is a coalition of voices from various political factions urging the Bank to adjust its policies to mitigate financial strain on the government [5][8] - David Aikman suggests that the Treasury and the Bank should coordinate to limit the costs of quantitative tightening (QT) on public finances [14][16] - Proposals include ceasing bond sales and potentially imposing a tax on income from the Bank to generate additional revenue for the government [19][22] Group 4: Future Outlook and Decisions - The Bank is expected to make decisions regarding the pace of QT, with predictions of slowing down active sales to avoid market disruptions [20][21] - Analysts are working on estimates to counter claims that QE has become a financial burden, emphasizing the long-term benefits of lower debt issuance costs [12][18] - The Chancellor's upcoming letter to the Bank may not lead to significant changes in monetary policy, as the MPC retains operational independence [13][23]

Macroeconomic Factors - Expectation of 3 or more Federal Reserve rate cuts [2] - Federal Reserve is anticipated to end its Quantitative Tightening (QT) program [2] - Treasury is expected to implement Quantitative Easing (QE) through bond buying [2] Crypto Market Liquidity - Stablecoin liquidity is projected to exceed $300 billion [2] - Money-market funds hold $7.4 trillion [2] Regulatory and Product Approvals - Anticipation of Clarity Act approval [2] - Expectation of over 90 crypto Exchange Traded Products (ETPs) approvals [2] - Potential approval of ETH ETF staking [2]