美国全球化秩序崩坏，中国 ROE 上升，看好保险 20251216 摘要 全球秩序变化导致经济模式转变，中国融入全球化后资本回报率 （ROE）呈现周期性下降趋势，通过扩张供给满足美国需求，导致长期 通缩。 中国决心脱离美元主导的全球化体系，通过减持美债、工资改革和地产 市场调整等系统性改革，旨在提高国内 ROE，实现经济可持续发展。 新能源产业发展推动中国制造业进入全球分工体系，增强利润分配能力， 供应链质变对整体经济产生积极反馈，保险公司作为国家信用和资产价 格重构的一部分将受益。 中国在全球供应链中的地位显著提升，成为吸收优质供应链资源的"黑 洞"，通过强化自身系统在全球化进程中占据重要位置。 全球化不可逆转，中国通过提升制造业和整体经济环境，破坏美国既有 利润分配秩序，美国通过债务扩张释放需求，影响全球贸易。 中国市场面临地产行业通缩等挑战，但长期发展趋势向好，市场久期拉 长，保险公司等长久期资金体量增加，市场定价偏向长期，中国资产价 格长期将上涨。 A 股市场未来可能从 AI 驱动的科技风格转向价值风格，中美 ROE 双向 变化导致资本流动恶化，财政政策发力覆盖短期风险，保险公司在当前 经济环境中表现 ...

Group 1 - Funds are suitable investment products for ordinary people, and there is a free course available to help beginners understand fund investment from scratch [2] - The course includes notes and mind maps to facilitate efficient learning [2] Group 2 - The relationship between stock prices and company earnings can be complex, with some companies showing good earnings but stagnant stock prices, while others with losses may see stock price increases [6][8] - Companies can be categorized based on their Return on Equity (ROE): loss stocks (negative ROE), marginal profit stocks (positive ROE but below market average), and quality stocks (positive ROE above market average) [6][7] - In periods of ample liquidity, stocks with poor earnings may rise more than those with good earnings, indicating a speculative market environment [9][11] - Long-term investment should focus on companies with relatively good earnings to ensure sustainable returns, rather than engaging in short-term speculation or investing in loss-making companies [11]

Core Viewpoint - The 2025 Analyst Conference highlighted that A-shares and Hong Kong stocks are currently among the most cost-effective high-return assets globally, with core indices' ROE stabilizing despite ongoing economic pressures and deflation [1][4]. Valuation Comparison - A-shares and Hong Kong stock indices exhibit significant return advantages compared to global assets, with the CSI 300 index's current PE ratio at approximately 13 times, implying a return of 7%, while some Hong Kong indices show even higher implied returns [1]. - Despite concerns about bubbles in certain sectors, the overall market's median valuation remains in a relatively low range, indicating that valuation risks have been largely released [1]. Profitability Concerns - The primary concern regarding profitability amidst economic decline and persistent deflation has been addressed, asserting that core indices' ROE will not significantly decline even if economic conditions do not improve [4]. - Historical data shows that during previous economic downturns, such as the 2008 financial crisis and the 2015 market adjustment, the ROE of core indices stabilized at current levels, receiving strong support [4]. Industry Dynamics - In economic downturns, many companies face losses, but leading firms maintain their ROE, reflecting the profitability gap between strong and weak companies. The index is primarily composed of leading firms, which helps stabilize the overall ROE [4]. - The construction materials industry serves as a case study, where leading companies are showing signs of profit improvement despite the sector's deep adjustment. For instance, only the top two companies in the industry remain profitable, while the third has incurred losses [4]. Investment Value of Leading Firms - Leading companies are expected to maintain their profitability levels even if industry demand continues to decline, as the exit of weaker firms will absorb downward pressure on the industry [4]. - The profit margins of leading firms have begun to recover from around 6%, while the second-ranked firm's net profit is only 1%, illustrating the resilience of core indices' ROE [4][5].

Core Viewpoint - The value of life insurance licenses has significantly declined, while the value of property insurance companies has increasingly been recognized by the industry and outside investors [1][5]. Group 1: Life Insurance Sector - In September, Minsheng Life Insurance's 705,000 shares were auctioned with a starting price of 12.7795 million yuan, which is 70% lower than the assessed value of 18.2564 million yuan, but the auction received no bids [2]. - Minsheng Life Insurance reported an insurance business income of 12.887 billion yuan and a net profit of 607 million yuan for 2024, with total assets of 140.056 billion yuan and a risk rating of BBB [3]. - The life insurance industry is facing challenges due to a decline in new premium growth and the pressure of rigid claims payments, leading to cash flow issues for companies [5][6]. Group 2: Property Insurance Sector - The approval of the share transfer for Anhua Agricultural Insurance to Rongjie Investment Holding Group, which now holds 32.719% of the company, indicates a growing recognition of property insurance value [2][9]. - The business model of property insurance is characterized by high certainty, with clear metrics for premium income and claims, making it easier to evaluate compared to life insurance [8]. - The market for property insurance is dominated by major players like PICC, Ping An, and Taikang, making it difficult for smaller companies to achieve significant breakthroughs [9].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the performance of the "Active Selection" strategy compared to the CSI 300 index and other equity fund indices, highlighting its ability to generate excess returns in most years since its inception, particularly noting a recovery in 2025 after underperforming in 2024 [1][2][36]. Performance Summary - As of June 30, 2025, the Active Selection strategy achieved a 5.46% excess return compared to the CSI 300 index [1]. - The performance of the Active Selection strategy since its inception shows that it outperformed the CSI 300 and the equity fund index in most years, particularly excelling during the bull market from 2020 to 2021 [4][8]. - Yearly performance data indicates that in 2020, the Active Selection strategy rose by 65.78%, outperforming the CSI 300 by 24.49% and the equity fund index by 5.61% [7][4]. 2024 Underperformance Analysis - In 2024, the Active Selection strategy increased by 6.56%, but underperformed the CSI 300, which rose by 14.68%, resulting in an 8.12% shortfall [11][12]. - The underperformance in 2024 is attributed to market style shifts, particularly a surge in small-cap and loss-making stocks, which the Active Selection strategy does not engage with [14][23]. Investment Strategy Insights - The article emphasizes the importance of investing in companies with strong profitability, as measured by Return on Equity (ROE), and categorizes companies into three groups based on their ROE [15][18]. - The strategy focuses on high-quality stocks, avoiding speculative investments in loss-making companies, which led to its relative underperformance during periods of "speculative trading" in 2024 [23][34]. - Long-term investment in high-performing stocks is advocated, aligning with the principle that stock prices ultimately reflect the underlying company's value over time [37][38].

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a significant increase in 2024 earnings per share (EPS) to RMB0.95, a 90% year-on-year growth, primarily driven by strong investment performance, aligning with previous forecasts of 75%-95% growth [1] Group 1: Life Insurance Performance - The company's life insurance (including health insurance) new business value (NBV) increased by 127% year-on-year on a comparable basis, with agent and bancassurance channels growing by 86% and 223% respectively [2] - New single premium slightly declined by 1%, but NBV growth was driven by improved profit margins, with the NBV profit margin rising to 18% from 8% [2] - The company adjusted the long-term investment return rate to 4.0% and the discount rate to 8.5%, leading to an estimated 22% decrease in NBV due to assumption adjustments, but expects a 17% growth in NBV for 2025 [2] Group 2: Property Insurance Performance - The comprehensive cost ratio (COR) for property insurance increased by 1 percentage point to 98.8%, mainly due to natural disaster impacts [3] - The auto insurance segment maintained a stable underwriting performance with a COR of 96.8%, while the non-auto insurance COR rose by 2.8 percentage points to 101.9% due to increased loss ratios [3] - The company anticipates a return to normal disaster frequency in 2025, projecting a COR of approximately 98% for Chinese property insurance [3] Group 3: Investment Performance - Supported by strong investment performance, the company's return on equity (ROE) for 2024 is estimated at 16.5%, the highest in nearly a decade [4] - The total investment return rate improved significantly to 5.6% from 3.3% in 2023, resulting in over 100% year-on-year growth in investment income [4] - The company’s annual dividend per share (DPS) reached RMB0.18, up from RMB0.16 in 2023, with a dividend payout ratio of approximately 19% [4] Group 4: Earnings Forecast and Valuation - Based on favorable investment conditions, the company has raised its EPS forecasts for 2025, 2026, and 2027 to RMB0.93, RMB0.85, and RMB0.93 respectively, with adjustments of 21.3%, 1.5%, and -0% [5] - The target prices for A/H shares have been increased to RMB7.9 and HKD4.7, up from RMB7.2 and HKD4.4 [5]