世易时移。 原标题：保契锐评丨产寿险牌照价值大逆转？ 来源：保契 短短几年的时间，曾经炙手可热的寿险牌照已鲜有人问津，而曾经"门前冷落鞍马稀"的财险公司，价值 却愈发被业内外认可。 9月，产寿险各有一则关于公司股权的新闻。 寿险方面，民生人寿705万股股份于9月25日挂牌拍卖。起拍价1277.95万元，较评估价1825.64万元打了 七折。遗憾的是，如此低价，阿里司法拍卖网仍显示此次拍卖0人报名，再次未能成功拍出。 财险方面，9月17日，国家金融监督管理总局挂网《关于安华农业保险股份有限公司变更股权的批 复》，同意融捷投资控股集团有限公司受让中科恒源科技股份有限公司、陕西佳乐紫光科贸有限公司、 盘锦龙德实业有限公司持有的安华农业险166，000，000股股份。受让后，融捷投资控股集团有限公司 合计持有安华农险346，000，000股股份，持股比例为32.719%。 中国保险业复业始于财险，股神巴菲特亦一直强调其看好的是财险。但在后续的发展进程中，寿险业却 凭借着收益与保障兼具的优势，快速做大规模，以至于无数资本打着向巴菲特学习的名义，却一头扎进 寿险，并通过提升保单收益等方式，将寿险公司打造成名副其实的"现金 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the performance of the "Active Selection" strategy compared to the CSI 300 index and other equity fund indices, highlighting its ability to generate excess returns in most years since its inception, particularly noting a recovery in 2025 after underperforming in 2024 [1][2][36]. Performance Summary - As of June 30, 2025, the Active Selection strategy achieved a 5.46% excess return compared to the CSI 300 index [1]. - The performance of the Active Selection strategy since its inception shows that it outperformed the CSI 300 and the equity fund index in most years, particularly excelling during the bull market from 2020 to 2021 [4][8]. - Yearly performance data indicates that in 2020, the Active Selection strategy rose by 65.78%, outperforming the CSI 300 by 24.49% and the equity fund index by 5.61% [7][4]. 2024 Underperformance Analysis - In 2024, the Active Selection strategy increased by 6.56%, but underperformed the CSI 300, which rose by 14.68%, resulting in an 8.12% shortfall [11][12]. - The underperformance in 2024 is attributed to market style shifts, particularly a surge in small-cap and loss-making stocks, which the Active Selection strategy does not engage with [14][23]. Investment Strategy Insights - The article emphasizes the importance of investing in companies with strong profitability, as measured by Return on Equity (ROE), and categorizes companies into three groups based on their ROE [15][18]. - The strategy focuses on high-quality stocks, avoiding speculative investments in loss-making companies, which led to its relative underperformance during periods of "speculative trading" in 2024 [23][34]. - Long-term investment in high-performing stocks is advocated, aligning with the principle that stock prices ultimately reflect the underlying company's value over time [37][38].

2024 年公司人身险（寿险和健康险）NBV 可比口径下同比增长127%，其中代理人/银保渠道分别同比 +86%/223%。2024 年新单保费小幅下滑1%，NBV 增长由利润率提升驱动。2024 年预定利率再次下 调、"报行合一"挤压渠道费用，带动假设调整前的NBV 利润率（新单保费基准）改善至18%（前值 8%）。合同服务边际CSM/EV 分别同比大幅提升22%/21%，增长强劲。公司下调长期投资收益率至 4.0%（前值：分红万能4.75%/传统险4.5%），下调贴现率至8.5%（前值：9%），假设调整导致NBV 下 降约22%。考虑到公司NBV 利润率有望提升，我们预计公司2025 年NBV 增长17%。 财产险：综合成本率上升 公司公布2024 年业绩：2024 EPS RMB0.95 同比提升90%，主要因投资业绩高增，符合公司此前业绩预 告（同比增长75%-95%）。公司人身险NBV可比口径下同比提升127%，增长强劲。财险业务综合成本 率同比上升1pct至98.8%，主要受自然灾害因素影响。24 年人身险利润贡献增长至40%（23年6%），预 计25 年仍处于较高水平并对利润形成支撑，上调A 股 ...