Core Insights - Precious metals have seen significant price movements, with gold peaking at $4,400 and silver at just below $54.50 in October 2025, followed by sharp corrections [2][4] - Current trading levels for gold are just below $4,000 and for silver below $48, indicating a bearish trend with potential targets for gold at $3,720 and $3,540, and for silver at $44.48 and around $41.5 [2][4] Market Drivers - Strong central bank buying, particularly from China, has contributed to the rise in precious metals [5] - A transition from a rate hiking cycle to a rate cutting cycle has influenced market dynamics [5] - The decline of the USD, with the DXY index falling from 110 in January 2025 to the low 96s, has supported precious metal prices [5] - Increased global geopolitical tensions have driven investors towards safe haven assets [5] Market Sentiment - Sentiment and positioning in the precious metals market had become extremely bullish, with significant retail participation driven by fear of missing out (FOMO) [8] - The influx of new longs has led to a reversal in prices, as fast money and retail investors are now stopping out of positions [9] Mining Sector Performance - The GDX ETF (Gold Senior Miners) has decreased from its October highs of 85 to 69, with targets set at 62.4 and 55.38 [10] - The SIL ETF (Silver Senior Miners) has fallen from 80.72 to 63, with targets in the low 50s [12] Future Outlook - Despite current corrections, the fundamentals for a continued rally in precious metals and miners remain intact, suggesting potential for future long positions [14]

Group 1 - An investor group including BlackRock, Nvidia, XAI, and Microsoft has agreed to buy Align data centers for approximately $40 billion, marking the largest data center transaction on record [1] - Aligned operates and has planned capacity of over 5 gigawatts across 50 data centers, with the transaction expected to close in the first half of 2026 [1] - The current compute buildout is described as being ten times larger than the Manhattan Project, which was a $4 billion government-funded initiative, indicating significant private investment in the sector [1] Group 2 - The ongoing AI super cycle is expected to create substantial investment opportunities, with the NASDAQ up 35% since May 2nd, suggesting a need to adjust investment strategies accordingly [2] - Companies like Nvidia are anticipated to continue compounding growth due to the increasing demand for compute resources, which is seen as critical for economic and national security [2][3] - Microsoft and SoftBank are identified as key players benefiting from the AI race, with potential for significant returns as the compute infrastructure expands [4][5]

Economic Indicators and Federal Reserve Insights - The current economic landscape lacks significant data releases, which may not influence Federal Reserve decisions [1][2] - Upcoming events include New York Fed inflation expectations and Fed minutes, which are anticipated to provide insights into the rate-cutting cycle [2][3] - The Kansas City Fed president, Jeffrey Schmidt, is expected to lead discussions, although the lack of new data may limit the impact of these talks [3] Upcoming Economic Data and Events - A key highlight will be Jay Powell's speech on the economic outlook scheduled for Tuesday, which is expected to be significant [4] - Important economic indicators such as CPI, PPI, retail sales, import prices, and housing starts are pending, contingent on government operations [5] - Historical context indicates that the CPI was produced with limited data during past government shutdowns, raising questions about the reliability of future data releases [6]

Commercial Real Estate Market Trends - Commercial real estate construction is slowing down, which is seen as a positive development for the sector [1] - Equity for development has been cautious and pulled out of the market for the last 2 and a half years, awaiting price stabilization and sustained demand before re-entering [2] - Multifamily unit production has seen a significant pullback after record production [3] - Industrial properties are correcting overbuilding due to a pullback in new development [4] - Retail real estate is experiencing a comeback due to repositioning and the integration of online and physical presences, driven by experiential factors [14] - Multifamily rentals are projected to remain strong due to the high affordability gap between renting and owning homes [16] Office Space Dynamics - Office space demand is unique due to post-pandemic issues, with daily attendance reaching 80% of pre-pandemic levels, up from less than 70% a year ago and less than 60% two years ago [7] - While the labor market is slowing, existing workers are being asked to return to the office, influencing lease renewals [8][9] - Demand for office space will not return to pre-pandemic levels due to new cost-cutting strategies [9] - Older Class B and C office properties face higher vacancy rates (30-40%) compared to newer, modern, and suburban office properties (11-115%) [10] Investment Opportunities - Campus housing, particularly near large and high-profile public universities, continues to see strong demand and stable revenues [12] - Experiential retail, such as malls with aquariums and zoos, presents potential investment opportunities [13]