Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the positive changes in China's macroeconomic environment, driven by effective policies and financial support for the real economy, leading to increased business activity and a recovery in consumer demand [3][6]. Economic Indicators - In September, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) decreased by 0.3% year-on-year, but the decline was less than the previous month, with a core CPI (excluding food and energy) rising by 1.0%, marking the first return to a 1% increase in nearly 19 months [5][6]. - The Producer Price Index (PPI) fell by 2.3% year-on-year, but the decline narrowed by 0.6 percentage points compared to the previous month, indicating a stabilization in some industry prices [8][9]. Monetary Policy and Financial Support - The People's Bank of China reported that the growth rates of M2 and social financing remained high, supporting the economic recovery. As of September, M2 reached 335.38 trillion yuan, with an annual growth rate of 8.4% [10][11]. - The M1 balance was 113.15 trillion yuan, growing by 7.2%, indicating increased business activity and consumer demand [10]. Industry Analysis - Certain industries, such as coal processing and photovoltaic equipment manufacturing, saw a reduction in price declines, suggesting improved market conditions and effective capacity management [9]. - The article notes that the structural upgrade of industries and the release of consumer potential are contributing to price increases in specific sectors, such as a 14.7% rise in the price of arts and crafts products [9]. Policy Implications - The government is focusing on expanding domestic demand and enhancing the quality of supply, with an emphasis on consumer spending and effective investment [6][12]. - Experts suggest that future fiscal policies should prioritize improving living standards and social security, shifting from investment-driven growth to consumer-oriented strategies [12].

新华财经北京10月15日电（记者王雨萧、叶婧）国家统计局15日发布的数据显示，9月份，消费市场运 行总体平稳，全国居民消费价格指数（CPI）环比上涨0.1%，扣除食品和能源价格的核心CPI同比上涨 1%。从最新物价数据中，能读出哪些信号？ 信号一：物价"核心稳" 同比上涨1%——9月份，核心CPI涨幅连续第5个月扩大，为近19个月以来涨幅首次回到1%。 "随着扩内需、促消费等相关政策持续显效，推动供需结构持续改善，一些领域价格显现积极变化，有 力支撑物价总体稳定。"中国宏观经济研究院市场与价格研究所研究员刘方说。 9月份，CPI环比涨幅有所回升，由上月持平转为上涨0.1%。其中，食品价格环比上涨0.7%，影响CPI环 比上涨约0.13个百分点，鲜菜、鸡蛋、鲜果、羊肉和牛肉价格均呈季节性上涨。 在山东寿光农产品物流园蔬菜交易区，鲜菜批发经销商赵守田告诉记者："8月西葫芦2.58元／公斤左 右，9月之后因为连续下雨导致产量下降、价格上涨，现在涨到3.32元／公斤。" 物流园蔬菜经营管理部经理范立波介绍，9月以来，北方货源受天气等因素影响，加上国庆中秋备货需 求和节日礼品需求，带动蔬菜、水果等价格有所上涨。 从同比 ...

What do we look at if we don't have the traditional economic indicators. Well, you could watch a lot of Bloomberg Surveillance. That's one thing you could do, because at this point, we've got to buy into the idea that this is going to go on for a while.That seems to be the word out of Washington in that case. The good news is we don't have a lot of significant data due out this week. We'll miss trade figures tomorrow, jobless claims on Thursday, inventories on Thursday.Not big indicators that are going to c ...

宏观经济宏观周报 高频指标继续提示经济回暖 主要结论：高频指标继续提示经济回暖。 经济增长方面，本周(9 月 26 日所在周）国信高频宏观扩散指数 A 维持正值， 指数 B 继续明显上升。从分项来看，本周投资、房地产领域景气继续上升， 消费领域景气变化不大，本周投资、房地产领域表现较优。从季节性比较来 看，本周指数 B 标准化后上升 0.43，表现明显强于历史平均水平，指向国内 经济增长动能继续回暖。 证券研究报告 | 2025年09月28日 基于国信高频宏观扩散指数对资产价格进行预测，显示当前国内利率偏低， 上证综合指数偏高，从均值回归的角度看，预计下周（2025 年 10 月 3 日所 在周）十年期国债利率将上行，上证综合指数将下行。 周度价格高频跟踪方面： （1）本周食品、非食品价格均上涨。预计 9 月 CPI 食品价格环比约为 1.5%， 非食品价格环比约为零，整体 CPI 环比约为 0.3%，CPI 同比回升至-0.1%。 （2）9 月上旬国内流通领域生产资料价格继续下跌且跌幅有所扩大，9 月中 旬延续下跌。预计 9 月 PPI 环比约为-0.1%，低基数背景下 PPI 同比或回升 至-2.4%。 ...

证券研究报告 | 2025年09月28日 宏观经济宏观周报 高频指标继续提示经济回暖 主要结论：高频指标继续提示经济回暖。 经济增长方面，本周(9 月 26 日所在周）国信高频宏观扩散指数 A 维持正值， 指数 B 继续明显上升。从分项来看，本周投资、房地产领域景气继续上升， 消费领域景气变化不大，本周投资、房地产领域表现较优。从季节性比较来 看，本周指数 B 标准化后上升 0.43，表现明显强于历史平均水平，指向国内 经济增长动能继续回暖。 基于国信高频宏观扩散指数对资产价格进行预测，显示当前国内利率偏低， 上证综合指数偏高，从均值回归的角度看，预计下周（2025 年 10 月 3 日所 在周）十年期国债利率将上行，上证综合指数将下行。 周度价格高频跟踪方面： （1）本周食品、非食品价格均上涨。预计 9 月 CPI 食品价格环比约为 1.5%， 非食品价格环比约为零，整体 CPI 环比约为 0.3%，CPI 同比回升至-0.1%。 （2）9 月上旬国内流通领域生产资料价格继续下跌且跌幅有所扩大，9 月中 旬延续下跌。预计 9 月 PPI 环比约为-0.1%，低基数背景下 PPI 同比或回升 至-2.4%。 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the content. 2. Core View of the Report The report focuses on understanding the current low inflation and providing an outlook for inflation and the bond market in the second half of the year. It points out that the low inflation is mainly due to a negative output gap and high real interest rates, which suppress aggregate demand. Under the "anti - involution" policy, prices are expected to rise moderately at a low level in the second half of the year, with CPI and PPI showing different trends. In the bond market, the "weak recovery, low inflation" environment provides support, but there are also upward pressure on interest rates and uncertainties [1][2][3][5]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 How to Understand the Current Low Inflation? - **Negative Output Gap**: China's GDP growth rate has a gap with the potential growth rate, the youth unemployment rate is high, industrial capacity utilization is low, and CPI and PPI are running at a low level, indicating that aggregate demand is lower than aggregate supply [2][18]. - **High Real Interest Rates**: Although the central bank has been lowering the nominal interest rate, the real interest rate has risen due to extremely low inflation and GDP deflator, which inhibits aggregate demand and forms a "passive tightening" effect [3][22]. 3.2 Current Characteristics of the Inflation Market - **Widening CPI - PPI Scissors**: In July 2025, the CPI - PPI scissors reached 3.6 percentage points, reflecting problems such as poor price transmission and unbalanced economic recovery, and squeezing the profits of downstream manufacturing enterprises [4][26]. - **Core CPI Reaching a New High**: In July 2025, the core CPI reached a new high since March 2024, becoming the main support for CPI, which shows positive changes in price operation and the effectiveness of policies [4]. - **"Anti - Involution" Not Driving PPI Upward**: "Anti - involution" policies have promoted the rise of commodity futures prices, but PPI has not increased. This may be due to the difference in pricing logic between futures prices and PPI, and the problem of insufficient terminal demand [4][34]. 3.3 Outlook for Inflation and the Bond Market under "Anti - Involution" - **Inflation Outlook**: In the second half of the year, CPI is expected to rise moderately, with estimated year - on - year growth rates of 0.1% and 0.5% in the third and fourth quarters respectively, and around 0% for the whole year. PPI is expected to maintain a trend of volatile recovery with narrowing year - on - year decline, with estimated year - on - year growth rates of - 2.7% and - 1.5% in the third and fourth quarters respectively, and around - 2% for the whole year, with a low possibility of turning positive within the year [5][41][51]. - **Bond Market Outlook**: In the "weak recovery, low inflation" environment, the bond market is supported by the fundamental logic and the central bank's monetary easing. However, the warming of the equity market and the "anti - involution" and "expanding domestic demand" policies may bring upward pressure on the interest rate center. The impact of the "anti - involution" policy on the bond market depends on whether the price increase expectation can be supported by real demand [6][57].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - In July, the year-on-year growth rate of domestic household RMB loans dropped to 2.65%, and the growth rate of household medium - and long - term loans also fell to 3.43%. From January to July, the year-on-year growth rate of fixed - asset investment dropped to 1.60%, about 1.2 percentage points lower than that from January to June. The long - term Treasury bond yield continued to rise, which may reflect the market's expectation of more real - estate support policies [2][10]. - The PPI in the US in July exceeded expectations, with a year - on - year increase of 3.3% (the highest level since February this year) and a month - on - month increase of 0.9% (the largest increase since June 2022). The follow - up pressure transmission needs attention. The Fed's scenario of more than 2 interest rate cuts this year still requires the decline of inflation data as support [2][12]. - The year - on - year decline of the production material price index continued to narrow. From August 11th to 15th, 2025, the average wholesale price of pork decreased by 1.17% month - on - month and 25.69% year - on - year; the Shandong vegetable wholesale price index increased by 7.22% month - on - month and decreased by 26.99% year - on - year. The year - on - year decline of the production material price index narrowed to 5.29% [2]. - From August 1st to 14th, 2025, the average daily trading area of commercial housing in 30 large and medium - sized cities was about 181,000 square meters, while in August 2024, it was about 232,000 square meters per day [2]. Summary According to the Directory High - Frequency Data Panoramic Scan - In July, the growth of domestic household loans and fixed - asset investment slowed down. The long - term Treasury bond yield should have faced downward pressure but continued to rise, which may reflect the market's expectation of real - estate support policies. The new - issued mortgage rate in the second quarter decreased again, and the adjusted new - issued mortgage rate after tax and capital cost continued to decline, but the trend slowed down [2][10][11]. - The PPI in the US in July exceeded expectations. If the upstream price - increase pressure can be transmitted to consumer prices, it may form re - inflation pressure; otherwise, it may affect corporate inventory investment [2][12]. - Various high - frequency data showed different trends. For example, food prices, consumer goods prices, energy prices, and real - estate transaction data all had their own changes in terms of month - on - month and year - on - year comparisons [15][17]. High - Frequency Data and Important Macroeconomic Indicators Trend Comparison - Multiple high - frequency data were compared with important macroeconomic indicators, such as the comparison between the year - on - year change of LME copper spot settlement price and the year - on - year change of industrial added value and PPI, and the comparison between the year - on - year change of crude steel daily output and the year - on - year change of industrial added value [17][33]. Important High - Frequency Indicators in the US and Europe - Some important high - frequency indicators in the US and Europe were presented, including the US weekly economic indicators, initial jobless claims, same - store sales growth, and the Chicago Fed Financial Conditions Index, as well as the implied interest - rate hike/cut prospects of the US Federal Funds Futures and the ECB's overnight index swaps [92][94][103]. Seasonal Trends of High - Frequency Data - The seasonal trends of high - frequency data were analyzed, with indicators such as the monthly average of crude steel daily output and the production material price index showing their respective seasonal changes [105]. High - Frequency Traffic Data in Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen - The year - on - year changes in subway passenger volume in Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen were presented [160].

Group 1: Inflation Insights - The July CPI data showed stagnation, while the PPI unexpectedly rose by 0.9% month-on-month, indicating potential inflationary pressures[2] - Trade services were the main driver of the PPI increase, suggesting that traders may be raising prices to enhance profit margins in response to tariff impacts[15] - The transmission of PPI to CPI is expected to have a time lag, with wholesale trade growth contributing more significantly than retail trade[17] Group 2: Federal Reserve Rate Decisions - The decision to lower rates in September is seen as a political issue, while the extent of the cut is viewed as an economic question[3] - Current data trends suggest a strong likelihood of a rate cut in September, with expectations leaning towards two rate cuts within the year[3] - The anticipated rate cut may not be a solution but rather the beginning of new challenges, particularly concerning persistent inflation[26] Group 3: Economic Risks - Risks include aggressive tariff policies leading to stagflation or recession, with dual pressures from debt burdens and monetary tightening[27] - The potential for tariff expansions to exceed expectations could result in a significant slowdown in global economic growth[27] - Geopolitical tensions may increase asset price volatility, exacerbating market fluctuations[27]

Quantitative Models and Construction Methods 1. Factor Name: Beta Factor - **Construction Idea**: The Beta factor measures the sensitivity of a stock's returns to the overall market returns, indicating its systematic risk[29] - **Construction Process**: - Calculate the covariance between the stock's returns and the market returns - Divide this covariance by the variance of the market returns - Formula: $ \beta = \frac{\text{Cov}(R_i, R_m)}{\text{Var}(R_m)} $ where $R_i$ is the return of the stock and $R_m$ is the return of the market[29] - **Evaluation**: The Beta factor is a widely used measure of risk, indicating how much a stock's price is expected to move relative to the market[29] 2. Factor Name: Liquidity Factor - **Construction Idea**: The Liquidity factor assesses the ease with which a stock can be traded without affecting its price, reflecting the market's depth and breadth[29] - **Construction Process**: - Measure the average daily trading volume - Calculate the bid-ask spread - Combine these metrics to form a composite liquidity score - Formula: $ \text{Liquidity} = \frac{\text{Average Daily Volume}}{\text{Bid-Ask Spread}} $[29] - **Evaluation**: The Liquidity factor is crucial for understanding the trading costs and potential price impact of large trades[29] 3. Factor Name: Profitability Quality Factor - **Construction Idea**: The Profitability Quality factor evaluates the financial health and earnings quality of a company, focusing on sustainable and high-quality earnings[29] - **Construction Process**: - Analyze various financial ratios such as return on equity (ROE), return on assets (ROA), and profit margins - Combine these ratios into a composite score - Formula: $ \text{Profitability Quality} = \frac{\text{ROE} + \text{ROA} + \text{Profit Margin}}{3} $[29] - **Evaluation**: This factor helps in identifying companies with strong and sustainable earnings, which are likely to perform well in the long term[29] Factor Backtesting Results 1. Beta Factor - **IR**: 0.45[29] - **Annualized Return**: 8.5%[29] - **Volatility**: 12.3%[29] 2. Liquidity Factor - **IR**: 0.38[29] - **Annualized Return**: 7.8%[29] - **Volatility**: 11.5%[29] 3. Profitability Quality Factor - **IR**: 0.52[29] - **Annualized Return**: 9.2%[29] - **Volatility**: 10.8%[29] Additional Factors and Their Performance 1. Factor Name: Skewness Factor - **Construction Idea**: The Skewness factor measures the asymmetry of the return distribution, indicating the potential for extreme positive or negative returns[33] - **Construction Process**: - Calculate the third moment of the return distribution - Normalize by the cube of the standard deviation - Formula: $ \text{Skewness} = \frac{E[(R - \mu)^3]}{\sigma^3} $ where $R$ is the return, $\mu$ is the mean return, and $\sigma$ is the standard deviation[33] - **Evaluation**: This factor is useful for understanding the tail risks and potential for extreme outcomes in the return distribution[33] 2. Factor Name: Position Change Factor - **Construction Idea**: The Position Change factor tracks changes in the holdings of large institutional investors, indicating their sentiment and market positioning[33] - **Construction Process**: - Monitor the quarterly filings of institutional investors - Calculate the net change in positions for each stock - Formula: $ \text{Position Change} = \frac{\text{Current Quarter Holdings} - \text{Previous Quarter Holdings}}{\text{Previous Quarter Holdings}} $[33] - **Evaluation**: This factor provides insights into the buying and selling activities of major market players, which can influence stock prices[33] Factor Backtesting Results 1. Skewness Factor - **IR**: 0.42[33] - **Annualized Return**: 8.1%[33] - **Volatility**: 11.9%[33] 2. Position Change Factor - **IR**: 0.47[33] - **Annualized Return**: 8.7%[33] - **Volatility**: 11.2%[33]

Investment Rating - The report revises down the full-year 2025/26 forecast of headline PPI inflation to -2.4%/-0.7% yoy from -2.1%/-0.6% yoy previously, indicating a bearish outlook on the industry [10]. Core Insights - China's headline CPI inflation remained unchanged at -0.1% yoy in May, with a decline in goods prices offset by higher services prices [1][3]. - Headline PPI inflation fell to -3.3% yoy in May, down from -2.7% yoy in April, primarily due to falling commodity prices [1][9]. - The report indicates that the weak PPI data suggests more deflationary pressures on China's PPI inflation for 2025 and 2026 than previously anticipated [10]. Summary by Sections CPI Analysis - In May, the CPI was -0.1% yoy, with a month-on-month increase of +0.5% (annualized, seasonally adjusted) [2][3]. - Food inflation decreased to -0.4% yoy in May, primarily due to lower prices of fresh vegetables, while pork prices rose by 3.1% yoy [4]. - Non-food CPI inflation was flat at 0% yoy, with fuel costs falling by 12.9% yoy [5][7]. PPI Analysis - Year-over-year PPI inflation fell to -3.3% yoy in May, with deeper deflation mainly from price declines in upstream sectors like energy and metals [9]. - Month-over-month PPI inflation declined to -5.1% (annualized, seasonally adjusted) in May [9]. - PPI inflation in producer goods fell to -4.0% yoy in May, while consumer goods edged up to -1.4% yoy [9]. Forecast Revisions - The report incorporates weak PPI data, leading to a downward revision of the full-year 2025/26 forecast of headline PPI inflation to -2.4%/-0.7% yoy [10].