2026年1月份，CPI同比增长0.2%，核心CPI保持温和上涨；PPI同比下降1.4%，降幅比上月收窄0.5个百 分点，PPI环比继续上涨。 2月11日，国家统计局公布2026年1月份CPI和PPI数据。1月份，居民消费需求持续恢复，居民消费价格 指数（CPI）环比上涨0.2%，同比上涨0.2%，扣除食品和能源价格的核心CPI同比上涨0.8%。受全国统 一大市场建设持续推进、部分行业需求增加及国际大宗商品价格传导等因素影响，工业生产者出厂价格 指数（PPI）环比上涨0.4%，同比下降1.4%。 核心CPI保持温和上涨 2026年1月，CPI同比增长0.2%，较前月下降0.6个百分点，居民消费价格增速小幅下行。不过，1月份核 心CPI温和上涨的态势没有改变。 国联民生（601456）首席经济学家陶川表示，核心CPI已经萌生出通胀"开门红"迹象。2026年1月核心 CPI环比上涨0.3%，创近6个月新高，其结构性走强印证年初居民消费需求逐步改善，为后续通胀温和 修复提供重要支撑。一方面，开年促消费政策效果持续显现，家用器具、日用杂品等价格延续上行，商 品消费稳步修复；另一方面，节前出行、文娱等服务需求逐步释放， ...

"PPI呈现同比降幅收窄、环比由稳转升的积极态势，反映出工业生产端需求逐步改善、市场活力稳步释 放。"广开首席产业研究院首席金融研究员王运金表示，这不仅体现了工业生产端的复苏动能，也为下 游消费市场提供了一定的支撑，有助于形成"生产复苏—需求提升—物价平稳"的良性循环。 从国际输入性因素看，东方金诚研究发展部执行总监冯琳分析，国际有色金属价格延续强势，带动国内 有色金属行业价格加速上涨，对当月PPI环比也起到明显拉升作用。"1月有色金属矿采选业、有色金属 冶炼和压延加工业PPI环比分别上涨5.7%和5.2%，涨幅较上月加快2.0和2.4个百分点，其中银冶炼、铜 冶炼、金冶炼、铝冶炼价格分别上涨38.2%、8.4%、4.8%和2.3%，除金冶炼价格涨幅与上月持平外， 银、铜、铝冶炼价格涨幅较上月分别加快24.7、3.8和1.4个百分点。" 展望未来，冯琳预计，2月PPI环比将延续上涨，但涨幅将放缓至0.2%左右，当月PPI同比跌幅将延续收 窄，预计将下降1.0%左右。 新华财经北京2月12日电（记者陆宇航）国家统计局2月11日发布的数据显示，1月份，我国工业生产者 出厂价格指数（PPI）环比上涨0.4%，连续4 ...

Group 1: PMI Overview - The comprehensive PMI index for January 2026 is 49.8%, a decrease of 0.9 percentage points from the previous month[3] - The manufacturing PMI is at 49.3%, down 0.8 percentage points, indicating a contraction in the sector[3] - The service sector PMI is 49.5%, reflecting a slight decline of 0.2 percentage points[3] Group 2: Price Trends - The manufacturing raw material purchase price index increased by 3.0 percentage points to 56.1%, indicating accelerated expansion[3] - The factory price index rose by 1.7 percentage points to 50.6%, marking the first time in 20 months it has exceeded the critical point[3] - The service sector sales price index improved by 0.8 percentage points to 48.9%[3] Group 3: Sector Performance - High-tech and equipment manufacturing PMIs are at 52.0% and 50.1%, respectively, remaining above the expansion threshold[3] - The construction sector PMI fell to 48.8%, a decrease of 4 percentage points, influenced by low temperatures and the upcoming Spring Festival[3] - The construction sector's new orders and business activity expectation indices dropped by 7.3 and 7.6 percentage points, respectively[3]

Group 1: Loan and Social Financing Trends - The median forecast for new RMB loans in December 2025 is 0.77 trillion yuan, representing a year-on-year decrease of 0.22 trillion yuan compared to 0.99 trillion yuan in December 2024 [2] - The median forecast for new social financing in December 2025 is 1.74 trillion yuan, down 1.12 trillion yuan from 2.86 trillion yuan in December 2024 [6][9] - High-frequency data indicates that the manufacturing and construction PMIs in December are above the threshold, recorded at 50.1% and 52.8% respectively, suggesting potential support for corporate loans [4] Group 2: Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI) - The CPI for December 2025 increased by 0.8% year-on-year, aligning with market expectations, while the PPI decreased by 1.9%, showing a smaller decline than anticipated [12][16] - Food prices rose by 1.1%, while non-food prices increased by 0.8%, contributing to the overall CPI increase [15] - The PPI decline was less severe than in previous months, indicating a potential stabilization in industrial prices [16][17] Group 3: Economic and Financial Conditions - The M1 growth rate is expected to continue its downward trend, while M2 growth is projected to slightly decline, leading to an expansion of the M2-M1 gap [10][11] - The pressure on local finances due to hidden debt becoming visible is expected to persist, affecting credit availability [5] - The overall economic environment remains cautious, with businesses likely to prioritize efficiency in capital usage amid uneven recovery in profits and cash flows [10]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In December, the economic operation was in the traditional off - season, but factors such as the late Spring Festival and the extended stocking cycle might boost industrial production. The export growth rate might decline slightly but still be better than that in October. The GDP growth rate in the fourth quarter was expected to reach around 4.5%, and the whole - year GDP was likely to achieve 5% and end smoothly [3][6]. - For the bond market, there was little suspense about the economic data in December. The market mainly focused on the verification of the "good start" of the economy at the beginning of the year. With the concentrated implementation of macro - policies to stabilize growth at the end of the year, the "two new" policies were issued one week earlier than in 2025, and the support amount for the early - batch "two important" and central budget - investment plan projects also increased compared with the previous year. January 2026 was expected to be the window for the concentrated effect of the "good start" policies, and high - frequency verification during the data "vacuum period" should be concerned [3]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Inflation - CPI: It was expected that the CPI in December would rise to around 0.9% year - on - year. Fruit and vegetable prices supported the food price to rise above the seasonal level, and the non - food item was in line with the seasonality. The CPI was expected to increase by about 0.2% month - on - month [3][6][8]. - PPI: It was predicted that the PPI in December would rise to around - 1.9% year - on - year. The non - ferrous industry faced imported inflation pressure, and the prices of domestic bulk commodities such as steel and PTA improved. The PPI was expected to increase by about 0.2% month - on - month [3][6][14]. 3.2 Export - The export growth rate was expected to be around 5.0% in December. The export momentum in December was not weak, although the year - on - year growth rate of container throughput at ports was lower than that in November but better than that in October. The import was expected to increase by around 1.5% year - on - year, with the price support continuing to expand [3][21]. 3.3 Industrial The industrial growth rate in December was expected to be around 5.1%. The PMI in December returned above the boom - bust line, and the production sub - item further expanded. The late Spring Festival in 2026 extended the stocking cycle, which had a certain driving effect on production [3][6][24]. 3.4 Investment - The cumulative growth rate of fixed - asset investment from January to December was expected to be around - 3.0%. The cumulative year - on - year growth rate of infrastructure investment (excluding electricity) was about - 1.5%, the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of real estate investment was about - 16.7%, and the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of manufacturing investment was about + 1.2% [3][6][33]. 3.5 Social Retail The year - on - year growth rate of social retail in December was expected to be around 1.0%. As the national subsidy funds were approaching the end, the marginal boost to automobile consumption from the subsidy decline weakened. The year - on - year decline in gasoline prices widened, and the drag on social retail from petroleum product consumption continued to increase [3][6][36]. 3.6 Financial Data - In December, the bill interest rate declined against the trend, reflecting the weak credit impulse at the end of the year. The new credit in December was expected to be about 80 billion yuan, slightly lower than the level of 99 billion yuan in the same period of the previous year. The new social financing was about 1.7 trillion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 58.85 billion yuan [3][6][45]. - The M2 growth rate was expected to remain around 8.0%. The new deposits were close to the seasonal level. From the asset side, the year - on - year growth rate of the credit balance might slightly decline to 6.3%, and the social financing growth rate might decline to around 8.4% affected by the high base of government bonds. From the liability side, the M2 in December might increase by 1.5 trillion yuan [3][48].

Group 1 - The U.S. stock indices performed well, with the S&P 500 rising by 1.6% and the Nasdaq 100 increasing by 2.6%, driven by a strong tech sector and growing expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut in December [1][3] - The market has reassessed the probability of a Federal Reserve rate cut next month to 70%, significantly up from a recent 30% expectation, following dovish comments from Federal Reserve officials [3] - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield fell below 4.00%, indicating a decline in bond yields across the curve, while gold and oil prices rose by 1.7% and 1.6% respectively against the dollar [3] Group 2 - Upcoming U.S. economic data includes the Producer Price Index (PPI) and retail sales figures for September, with expectations for a core PPI increase of 0.3% month-over-month and 2.7% year-over-year [4][5] - Retail sales are anticipated to slow, with a month-over-month growth forecast of 0.4%, down from 0.6%, and a decrease in auto sales-excluded retail growth from 0.7% to 0.3% [6][7]

Core Viewpoint - The commentary from John Williams, a key Federal Reserve member, indicates potential for further adjustments in monetary policy, leading to a notable shift in market sentiment and expectations for a December rate cut [1][2][3]. Market Reaction - Following Williams' remarks, there has been a decrease in yields, particularly on the short end of the yield curve, and expectations for a December rate cut have risen to approximately 60% from the previous day [2]. - The market's reaction reflects a growing uncertainty among Federal Reserve members regarding the direction of the federal funds rate, as evidenced by the varied positions in the recent dots plot [3][4]. Federal Reserve Insights - Despite the increased speculation about a December rate cut, the expectation remains that the Federal Reserve will proceed with rate cuts at a slow and methodical pace, with no immediate cut anticipated [4]. - Some Federal Reserve officials continue to express concerns about high prices, while others highlight potential softness in the labor market, indicating a mixed outlook [5][6]. Economic Indicators - The recent jobs report showed an upside surprise in the headline number for non-farm payrolls (NFP), but revisions presented a mixed picture, contributing to market confusion [9]. - Upcoming Producer Price Index (PPI) data is expected to provide insights into inflation trends, which remain a critical focus for the Federal Reserve [10][11]. - Weekly unemployment claims are also anticipated to serve as real-time indicators of labor market conditions, offering a clearer picture of economic health [12].

Core Insights - The macroeconomic data for October indicates a short-term increase in economic downward pressure, with adjustments in policies focusing on stimulating domestic demand and repairing industrial product prices [1] CPI - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose from -0.3% to 0.2% year-on-year, marking a 0.5 percentage point increase from the previous month [4] - The month-on-month CPI increased by 0.2%, influenced by rising prices of fruits and vegetables, with food prices showing a higher growth rate compared to historical values [4] PPI - The Producer Price Index (PPI) decreased by 2.1% year-on-year, but saw a month-on-month increase for the first time this year, supported mainly by the mining industry [7] - Prices for production materials rose by 0.1%, with mining prices increasing by 1% [7] PMI - The Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) fell to 49% from 49.8%, indicating a contraction in manufacturing activity [10] - The decline in PMI is attributed to high inventory levels, a significant drop in new export orders, and weakened investment demand due to debt repayment acceleration [10] Fixed Asset Investment - Fixed asset investment (FAI) decreased by 1.7% year-on-year, with construction and real estate investments showing significant declines [14] - Factors contributing to the low performance in infrastructure include accelerated debt repayment, insufficient project reserves, and seasonal construction slowdowns [14] Credit - New credit issuance in October was 220 billion yuan, a decrease of 280 billion yuan compared to the previous year [17] - The total social financing (TSF) increased by 815 billion yuan, but the growth rate has slowed down [17] M2 - The M2 money supply grew by 8.2% year-on-year, a slight decrease from the previous month's growth rate of 8.4% [21] - The decline in M2 growth is influenced by a slowdown in social financing and an increase in fiscal deposits [21]

Group 1: CPI Analysis - In October, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by 0.2% month-on-month and year-on-year, marking a shift from a decline of 0.3% in the previous month [2][3] - Service prices rose by 0.2%, driven by increased travel demand during the National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival, with hotel accommodation, flight tickets, and tourism prices rising by 8.6%, 4.5%, and 2.5% respectively [2][3] - Core CPI, excluding food and energy, rose by 1.2% year-on-year, marking the highest increase since March 2024 and reflecting a steady recovery in domestic consumption, particularly in services [2][3] Group 2: PPI Analysis - The Producer Price Index (PPI) saw a month-on-month increase of 0.1% in October, the first rise of the year, influenced by improved supply-demand relationships in certain industries [4][5] - Year-on-year, PPI decreased by 2.1%, but the decline narrowed by 0.2 percentage points compared to the previous month, indicating a gradual recovery in key industries [5][6] - Prices in the coal mining and washing industry, photovoltaic equipment manufacturing, and integrated circuit manufacturing have shown upward trends, while international commodity prices have created a mixed impact on domestic prices [4][5] Group 3: Economic Outlook - Experts suggest that the improvement in price data reflects a comprehensive enhancement in the economic cycle and internal momentum, indicating a balanced supply-demand relationship [6][7] - The overall price level is expected to rise moderately, supported by macroeconomic policies and a recovery in market confidence, with CPI anticipated to show a low but steady increase [7] - The construction of a modern industrial system and the expansion of market demand are expected to drive price increases in related industries, despite ongoing pressures from the real estate market [7]

Core Viewpoint - Recent implementation of 500 billion yuan in new policy financial tools has been completed, with both existing and new policies continuing to exert influence, leading to a gradual stabilization of prices and a potential mild increase in the price center [1] Economic Indicators - CPI is expected to gradually recover from low levels, characterized by strong food prices, weak energy prices, and stable core prices [1] - A slight rebound in pork prices is anticipated due to reduced output plans from major pig farming companies and the arrival of the southern cured meat season [1] - Decreased supply of fruits and vegetables due to falling temperatures is likely to lead to price increases [1] Policy Impact - The year-on-year decline in food CPI is expected to narrow in November due to a high base effect from the previous year [1] - "Anti-involution" measures are expected to continue supporting automobile prices, while industrial consumer goods prices are likely to improve year-on-year, and service prices will remain stable [1] Market Outlook - With continued macro policy support and a recovery in market confidence, the overall price center is projected to rise moderately [1] - CPI is anticipated to enter a mild upward channel, while the year-on-year decline in PPI is expected to continue narrowing, with month-on-month figures likely to maintain a weak balance [1]