One of our advisers looked me up over the weekend because the adviser was reflecting on what transpired in the markets over 2025, but also over the last two years and wonders what are the sub-lessons he/she could learn from the markets. Firstly, I think that is a good habitual practice. You got to know where we are today, what transpired in the very short term (1-year), in a longer time frame (5-year), and over an even longer timeframe (20-years). I would always say what is easy about advising the investin ...

Even the global elite may not be eyeing the appropriate risks in 2026. - Fabrice Coffrini/Agence France-Presse/Getty Images Long-term investment success requires us to be fearful when the majority is complacent. This is one of those times. It’s not just retail investors who are complacent these days. Complacency is widespread among sophisticated institutional investors who should know better, too. Most Read from MarketWatch Particularly noteworthy is the attitude of the global elite who are gathering ...

Core Viewpoint - The article suggests that as investors enter 2026, there may be a need to reconsider investment strategies, moving away from last year's high-performing tech and AI stocks due to signs of economic slowdown and labor market challenges [2]. Investment Recommendations - **Own: Vanguard Dividend Appreciation ETF** - This ETF focuses on companies that have increased dividends for at least 10 consecutive years, making it a solid choice for dividend growth. It has a low expense ratio of 0.05%, making it cost-effective for investors [5]. - The ETF's market-cap-weighted approach means larger companies dominate the portfolio, which may not align with the dividend-focused strategy, as seen with top holdings like Broadcom, Microsoft, and Apple, which have low yields [6]. - Dividend payers are expected to perform well in 2026 due to potential slower growth and increased market volatility, as they typically provide durable earnings and strong cash flows [7]. - **Own: Vanguard Total Bond Market ETF** - This ETF represents a comprehensive coverage of the U.S. bond market, including various types of bonds, and has an even lower expense ratio of 0.03% [8]. - The article anticipates a market rotation favoring cyclical and defensive sectors, suggesting that bonds and dividend stocks could benefit from a slowdown in U.S. economic growth [8].

Group 1: Amazon - Amazon has underperformed in 2025, with a year-to-date increase of only 5.5% compared to the S&P 500's 17.3% gain [4] - Amazon Web Services (AWS) is now generating more than double the operating income compared to the rest of the business combined, indicating a shift in the company's revenue model [5] - Despite pressures on consumer spending and competition in cloud computing, Amazon's earnings are growing at a solid pace, with a forward earnings multiple of 32.8, comparable to Apple's 33.2, while growing faster [6] Group 2: Netflix - Netflix's stock has decreased by 29% in the last six months, but it has still seen significant price increases since the start of 2023, with a forward price-to-earnings ratio of 37 [7][10] - The company is facing uncertainty due to its acquisition of Warner Bros. Discovery, which has raised concerns among investors about future earnings growth [8][11] - Despite rising operating expenses, Netflix maintains a strong balance sheet and is expected to leverage Warner Bros. Discovery's assets to enhance its subscription offerings and in-house production capabilities [12] Group 3: Visa - Visa is positioned as a leading payment processor in the U.S. and is benefiting from the ongoing shift towards digital transactions, with a market cap of $671 billion [15][16] - The company's fee structure allows it to generate revenue from every transaction, making it resilient even during economic downturns [17] - With a forward earnings multiple of 27.7, Visa is considered a reasonable investment for an industry leader, despite not being the cheapest option available [18]

Core Insights - A growing sense of pessimism among U.S. consumers is evident, with 54% believing life has worsened over the past 25 years, a significant increase from earlier 2025 findings [2][7] - Economic strain, particularly related to cost of living and housing affordability, is reshaping consumer expectations and trust in brands [1][4] Consumer Sentiment - The report indicates that consumer sentiment is not static and can shift rapidly due to economic conditions and recent experiences, highlighting the importance of continuous research [3][4] - Younger generations are less pessimistic compared to Gen X and Boomers, yet they still face financial pressures and housing challenges [2][7] Spending Priorities - Food, housing, and utilities are the primary spending priorities across all generations, reflecting the ongoing pressure from rising living costs [7] - Gen Z identifies housing as the most detrimental societal factor (72%), while older generations cite cost of living and healthcare as their top concerns [7] Brand Perception - Consumers across generations feel that brands are charging more for less, with a strong consensus that brands have a responsibility to offer high-quality, affordable products [7] - The findings emphasize the need for brands to adapt to changing consumer expectations through timely and privacy-safe research [4]

Group 1 - Investors should be cautious of complacency as they age, particularly around age 50, as their capacity to absorb risk diminishes despite feeling more risk-tolerant [1] - The last significant economic downturn occurred 17 years ago, suggesting the need for investors to mentally prepare and reposition their portfolios towards safer assets [2] - Recency bias can lead investors to mistakenly believe that current market trends will continue, which can result in crowding into hot sectors like AI and Big Tech without considering potential downturns [3] Group 2 - Investors are advised to adopt a "set-it-and-forget-it" mentality, as frequent portfolio adjustments can lead to diminished returns, likened to a bar of soap that gets smaller the more it is handled [4] - A once-annual review of the portfolio is recommended, focusing on performance, rebalancing, and tax-planning strategies, to avoid excessive tinkering that could harm long-term investment outcomes [5]

Market Outlook - The market is expected to experience a reaceleration in job growth and GDP, with projections indicating potential surprises to the upside for Q3 and Q4 [3][10] - The Dow is projected to reach 50,000 and the S&P 500 to 7,000 by Q1 of 2026, driven by earnings reaceleration and economic growth [12] Federal Reserve Actions - The Federal Reserve is anticipated to cut rates again, with expectations of one or two more cuts, although this is not seen as the beginning of a grand rate-cutting cycle [9][10] - The Fed is perceived to be behind the curve in its decision-making, with suggestions that they should have cut rates earlier in the year [8] Inflation Trends - Inflation is expected to stabilize in the upper twos to low threes, with a long-term trend towards lower inflation rates [5][4] - The current inflation battle is viewed as misdirected, with a belief that the focus should shift to other economic indicators [4][5] Sector Performance - Small caps are favored, with recommendations to buy on pullbacks, as they are expected to perform well despite high valuations in larger stocks [20][21] - Financials and biotech sectors are also viewed positively, with potential opportunities in energy stocks as crude oil prices stabilize [21][22] Market Sentiment - There is a belief that panic selling has occurred, leading to minor pullbacks and a strong performance chase among fund managers [13][15] - The current market rally is seen as a result of significant cash positions held by managers who are now seeking to catch up with benchmarks [15]

Core Insights - The article emphasizes the importance of creating a portfolio that generates income without the need for selling assets, aiming to alleviate the stress of retirement investing [1] - It highlights the concept of "recency bias," where current events are overvalued in their impact on future outcomes, suggesting a need for a broader perspective in investment strategies [2] Group 1 - The Income Method is presented as a strategy that provides strong returns and simplifies the retirement investment process [1] - Features of the investment service include a model portfolio with buy/sell alerts, conservative investment options like preferred and baby bonds, and community engagement through active chats and market updates [2] - The service philosophy promotes community and education, advocating that investors should not navigate the market alone [2] Group 2 - The article mentions that recommendations are closely monitored, with buy and sell alerts provided exclusively to members, indicating a proactive management approach [4] - It is noted that past performance does not guarantee future results, emphasizing the need for careful consideration in investment decisions [5]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current market conditions, focusing on Newmont Corporation (NEM) and broader economic indicators, highlighting potential investment strategies amid market fluctuations and government fiscal policies [15]. Group 1: Company Analysis - Newmont Corporation (NEM) has shown an upward trend in stock price this year, with a notable gap up following earnings reports [15]. - The Relative Strength Index (RSI) for NEM indicates a negative divergence, suggesting that internal momentum is slowing despite rising stock prices, which may lead to a potential pullback [15]. Group 2: Economic Indicators - Durable goods orders fell by 9.3%, better than the consensus estimate of -11%, while durable goods excluding transportation rose by 0.2%, surpassing the expected -0.2% [15]. - The S&P 500 has recently achieved the longest series of record highs since December 2024, indicating a strong market performance, although this may lead to recency bias among investors [15]. Group 3: Investment Strategies - Investors are advised to maintain a diversified portfolio, considering a traditional allocation of 60% stocks and 40% bonds, focusing on high-quality bonds with shorter durations [16]. - The article suggests that investors should hold sufficient cash to capitalize on new opportunities while adjusting hedge levels to manage risk effectively [13][10].

Core Insights - Oracle Corporation's shares have increased by over 13% following a strong quarterly performance, reaching an all-time high [1] - Co-founder Larry Ellison has become the second-richest person, following his close friend [1] Company Performance - The significant rise in Oracle's stock price is attributed to its strong quarterly results [1] - The stock's performance indicates robust investor confidence and market sentiment towards Oracle [1] Leadership and Wealth - Larry Ellison's financial status reflects the success of Oracle and its market position [1] - The close friendship with another wealthy individual highlights the interconnectedness of influential figures in the tech industry [1]