At the end of that speech at Columbia, you nodded to the fact that recessions are inevitable. Fed's job It's going to forestall them as much as they can. Policymakers, jobs or that.I'm very curious when you look at the labor market in particular, the rise that we've seen in the unemployment rate, that's kind of rise we've seen customarily before recessions. How do you assess the risk of there being a recession here in the near term when you look at the labor market, for instance. So I don't see a recession ...

Core Viewpoint - The content emphasizes the importance of conducting personal due diligence and consulting with competent advisors before making any financial decisions, particularly in the context of investments in complex instruments like cryptocurrencies and CFDs [1]. Group 1 - The website provides general news, personal analysis, and third-party materials intended for educational and research purposes [1]. - It explicitly states that the information should not be interpreted as a recommendation or advice for investment actions [1]. - The accuracy and reliability of the information are not guaranteed, and users are cautioned against relying solely on the content provided [1]. Group 2 - The website discusses the high risks associated with cryptocurrencies and CFDs, highlighting their complexity and the potential for significant financial loss [1]. - It encourages users to conduct their own research and fully understand the instruments and risks involved before making investment decisions [1].

Core Insights - Goldman Sachs demonstrated strong performance in its traditional strengths of trading and investment banking, with investment banking revenue increasing by 43% year over year [1] - Advisory revenue surged by 60% year over year, while underwriting for equities rose by 21% and for debt by 30% [1] Investment Banking Performance - Investment banking revenue rose significantly, indicating robust demand for advisory and underwriting services [1] - The increase in advisory revenue and underwriting suggests a favorable market environment for mergers, acquisitions, and capital raising activities [1] Trading Performance - Overall trading revenue showed mixed results, with fixed income, currencies, and commodities trading rising by 17% to $3.47 billion, exceeding average estimates [2] - Equities trading, however, increased by only 7%, falling short of consensus estimates by approximately $200 million, reporting $3.74 billion for the quarter [2] Expense Management - Goldman Sachs set aside $339 million for bad loans, which was lower than the consensus estimate of nearly $370 million, indicating better-than-expected credit quality [2] - Operating expenses increased by 14% year over year, with compensation expenses also rising by 14%, reflecting higher costs associated with talent retention and recruitment [3] Market Exposure - Goldman Sachs is noted as the most exposed major bank to investment banking revenue, suggesting it may respond more quickly to recession risks or market condition deterioration compared to its peers [4] - Despite potential risks, the current performance metrics, particularly in investment banking, appear solid [4]

Core Insights - The article highlights the investment strategies and achievements of Paul Franke, a seasoned investor with 39 years of trading experience, emphasizing his contrarian stock selection style and the development of a system called "Victory Formation" for identifying stocks based on supply/demand imbalances [1] Group 1: Investment Strategies - Paul Franke suggests using 10% or 20% stop-loss levels on individual stock choices to manage risk effectively [1] - A diversified approach is recommended, advocating for ownership of at least 50 well-positioned stocks to achieve consistent outperformance in the stock market [1] - The "Bottom Fishing Club" articles focus on identifying deep value candidates or stocks that are experiencing significant upward technical momentum reversals [1] Group 2: Analytical Approach - Franke employs daily algorithm analysis of both fundamental and technical data as part of his investment strategy [1] - The "Volume Breakout Report" articles discuss positive trend changes that are supported by strong price and volume trading actions [1]

International Markets - US stocks still have a home bias, but international markets offer catalysts beyond just a weaker dollar [1] - Europe benefits from lower rates and fiscal stimulus, China from AI, and Japan from corporate reform [2] - Emerging markets, including Korea, Taiwan, and Latin America, benefit from the resurgence in hardware within tech and the reorganization of global trade [2][3] - International opportunities are not all dependent on each other, providing diversification [3] US Market & Fiscal Policy - The market has largely priced in the "big beautiful bill," with short-term positive impacts on equity markets due to growth boosts [4][5] - The long-term impact of the bill includes a potentially ever-expanding deficit, estimated to be in the trillions, which could create a floor on yields [5][6] - The market seems to have gotten comfortable with tariffs around 14% or 15%, after a previous range of 2% to 25% [8] Market Resilience & Outlook - The market has shown resilience to geopolitical risks, the reconciliation bill, and recession risks [9][10] - The path of least resistance for the market is higher, given its resilience to various downside risks [10] - The market could become more rangebound in the second half of the year due to higher valuations [12][13] - Diversified portfolios are up 6% to 7% in the first half of the year [14] Bond Market & Yields - Resistance has been met around 45% on the 10-year Treasury yield [15] - Yields could drift lower throughout the year, potentially providing opportunities for investors [16] - Even if yields remain stable, the income cushion will generate a decent return further out on the curve [16]