▲ 戳蓝 色字关注我们！ 人类的全部历史告诫有智慧的人，不要笃信时运，而应坚信思想。—— 爱默生 当所有人都以为AI只是另一波技术浪潮时。 股市的底层逻辑已经悄然重写。 （本文是杜雨博士内部分享实录，约2万字 ） 破局——颠覆的底层逻辑 信息不对称的终结：股市存在的根基被动摇 各位好，我是杜雨。 在正式开始之前，我想先问在座各位一个问题——你们认为，股票市场究竟是一台什么机器？ 定价机器？财富再分配机器？还是经济晴雨表？ 这些答案都对，但都不够本质。 在我看来，三百年来，股市从始至终只干了一件事：为信息不对称定价。 股市为何而存在：三百年来的"信息差游戏" 时间拨回1602年。 荷兰东印度公司在阿姆斯特丹发行了人类历史上第一支公开股票。 彼时，一艘从东南亚满载香料归来的船只，它究竟装了多少货、能赚多少钱，普通市民根本无从得知。 只有码头的掮客、公司的内部人，才掌握第一手信息。 于是，信息优势变成了定价优势，定价优势变成了财富。 美国SEC规定上市公司必须提交10-K、10-Q等文件。 这个逻辑，从阿姆斯特丹到华尔街，从纸质凭证到纳斯达克的电子撮合系统，本质从未改变。 股市，说穿了，就是一场关于"谁知道得更多、 ...

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Full-year group revenue reached RMB 13.6 billion, an increase of 3.8% year-over-year, while net profit rose to RMB 2.5 billion, a 6.6% increase from the previous year [11] - Full-year transaction volume was RMB 200 billion, down 2.9% year-over-year, reflecting regulatory uncertainty in China [12] - International business volume increased by 38.6%, with revenue rising by 32.0% year-over-year, contributing 31% of revenue for the quarter, up from 21% a year ago [12][13] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - In China, loan origination volume moderated to CNY 38.7 billion, with an outstanding loan balance of CNY 68.3 billion in Q4 [17] - Vintage loss for new loan origination stabilized at 3.0%, while the outstanding loan portfolio risk increased, with CM2 rising from 0.61% to 0.77% for the quarter [18] - International markets, including Indonesia and the Philippines, achieved full-year profitability, contributing over $15 million in combined operating profit [20] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - In Indonesia, transaction volume reached a historical high of $0.3 billion, reflecting a 10% growth quarter-over-quarter [39] - The unique borrower base in international markets grew to 3.8 million, a 133.8% increase year-over-year [39] - In the Philippines, total transaction volume reached $0.2 billion, a 64% growth year-over-year, with embedded e-commerce partnerships contributing 43% of the country's volume [42][70] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company aims to grow international revenue to 50% by 2030, leveraging a "LEGO+" strategy to integrate capabilities across markets [13][31] - The recent acquisition of Fundo in Australia is part of the strategy to enter developed markets, which are seen as ripe for digital transformation [75][78] - The focus for 2026 includes sharpening risk models, refining operations, and optimizing funding costs to improve unit economics [79] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - The management expressed confidence in navigating regulatory changes in China and emphasized a focus on high-quality operations and customer acquisition [55][56] - The company anticipates a decline in full-year 2026 group revenue between 5% and 15% year-over-year due to regulatory impacts [46] - Management highlighted the importance of maintaining a proactive customer acquisition strategy and adapting to market conditions [58] Other Important Information - The company accelerated its buyback program, repurchasing $107 million worth of shares in 2025, with a commitment to meaningful shareholder returns [29][45] - The company launched an emergency humanitarian response in Indonesia, reflecting its commitment to ESG efforts [28] Q&A Session Summary Question: Shareholder return policy and sustainability of buyback momentum - The company plans to maintain buyback momentum despite regulatory uncertainties, with $40.7 million repurchased in Q1 2026 [51][52] Question: Update on operational targets for the domestic market - The focus will be on high-quality operations, with expectations for lower transaction volume in Q1 due to seasonal factors [54][55] Question: Trends in delinquency rates and credit cycle outlook - Day one delinquency has trended down to around 5%, with early risk indicators showing signs of recovery [63] Question: Revenue contribution from overseas markets and customer acquisition strategies - International revenue is expected to account for roughly 30% of total revenue in 2026, with systematic customer acquisition strategies in place [65][66]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Full-year group revenue reached RMB 13.6 billion, an increase of 3.8% year-over-year, while net profit rose to RMB 2.5 billion, a 6.6% increase from the previous year [11] - Full-year transaction volume was RMB 200 billion, down 2.9% year-over-year, reflecting regulatory uncertainty in China [12] - International business volume increased by 38.6%, with revenue rising by 32.0% year-over-year, contributing 31% of revenue for the quarter, up from 21% a year ago [12][13] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - In China, loan origination volume moderated to CNY 38.7 billion, with an outstanding loan balance of CNY 68.3 billion in the fourth quarter [17] - Vintage loss for new loan origination stabilized at 3.0%, while the outstanding loan portfolio risk increased, with CM2 rising from 0.61% to 0.77% for the quarter [18] - International markets, including Indonesia and the Philippines, achieved full-year profitability, contributing over $15 million in combined operating profit [20] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - In Indonesia, transaction volume reached a historical high of $0.3 billion, reflecting a 10% growth quarter-over-quarter [39] - The unique borrower base in international markets grew to RMB 3.8 million, a 133.8% increase year-over-year [38] - In the Philippines, total transaction volume reached $0.2 billion, a 64% growth year-over-year, with embedded e-commerce partnerships contributing 43% of the country's volume [42][68] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company aims to grow international revenue to 50% by 2030, focusing on a balanced geographic portfolio to hedge against market volatility [13][45] - The recent acquisition of Fundo in Australia is part of the strategy to enter developed markets, leveraging existing capabilities and regulatory experience [22][76] - The company is committed to refining risk models and optimizing funding costs to improve unit economics [78] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - The management expressed confidence in navigating regulatory changes in China and emphasized a focus on high-quality operations and sustainability [53][54] - The company anticipates a decline in full-year 2026 group revenue between 5% and 15% year-over-year due to regulatory impacts [45] - Management highlighted the importance of maintaining a proactive customer acquisition strategy and adapting to changing market conditions [56] Other Important Information - The company accelerated its buyback program, repurchasing $107 million worth of shares in 2025, with a commitment to meaningful shareholder returns [29][44] - The company launched an emergency humanitarian response in Indonesia following severe flooding, reflecting its commitment to ESG efforts [28] Q&A Session Summary Question: Shareholder return policy and sustainability of buyback momentum - Management confirmed the acceleration of buybacks, with $40.7 million in the first quarter and a total of $107 million for 2025, indicating attractive opportunities despite regulatory headwinds [50][52] Question: Update on operational targets for the domestic market - Management stated that the focus for 2026 will be on high-quality operations, with expectations for lower transaction volume in the first quarter due to seasonal factors [53][54] Question: Trends in delinquency rates and credit cycle outlook - Management reported an increase in risk metrics but noted signs of stabilization, with day one delinquency trending down in January and February [62] Question: Revenue contribution from overseas markets and customer acquisition strategies - Management expects international revenue to account for roughly 30% of total revenue in 2026, with systematic customer acquisition strategies in place [64][66] Question: Strategic thinking behind entering developed markets - Management explained that entering developed markets like Australia allows the company to leverage its experience and build resilience against market volatility [72][74]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company reported full-year revenue of RMB 13.6 billion, an increase of 3.8% year-over-year, and net profit rose to RMB 2.5 billion, a 6.6% increase from the previous year [7][8] - Full-year transaction volume was RMB 200 billion, down 2.9% year-over-year, reflecting regulatory uncertainty in China [8] - The international business saw significant growth, with volume increasing by 38.6% and revenue rising by 32.0% year-over-year, contributing 31% of revenue for the quarter, up from 21% a year ago [8][9] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - In the mature market of China, loan origination volume moderated to CNY 38.7 billion, with an outstanding loan balance of CNY 68.3 billion in Q4 [11] - The vintage loss for new loan origination stabilized at 3.0%, while the CM2 increased from 0.61% to 0.77% for the quarter, indicating a trend in risk management [12] - The international markets, including Indonesia and the Philippines, achieved full-year profitability, contributing over $15 million in combined operating profit, with a unique user base doubling to 5.9 million [13] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company operates in both developing and developed markets, with recent entry into Australia, which is characterized by high growth and scalable opportunities [10][11] - In Indonesia, transaction volume reached a historical high of $0.3 billion, reflecting a 10% growth quarter-over-quarter, while the Philippines saw a 64% growth year-over-year in total transaction volume [26][27] - The regulatory environment in Indonesia has provided clarity, allowing for increased customer acquisition investments [26] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company aims to grow international revenue to 50% by 2030, leveraging a strategy that integrates operations across markets rather than treating each as a standalone effort [9][10] - The acquisition of Fundo in Australia is seen as a strategic move to enter a developed market with a mature regulatory framework, allowing for faster and more efficient growth [14][51] - The company is focusing on high-quality operations in China, emphasizing sustainability, compliance, and the use of AI to drive efficiencies [36] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management acknowledged the challenging macro environment in 2025 but expressed confidence in the company's strategic direction and resilience [7][21] - The company anticipates a phase of industry consolidation in China due to regulatory changes, positioning itself to seize opportunities [12] - For 2026, the company expects group revenue to decline between 5% and 15% year-over-year, while maintaining a focus on international growth [29] Other Important Information - The company accelerated its buyback program, repurchasing $107 million worth of shares in 2025, with a commitment to meaningful shareholder returns [20][29] - The company launched an emergency humanitarian response in Indonesia, reflecting its commitment to ESG efforts [19] Q&A Session Summary Question: Shareholder return policy and operational targets for the Chinese market - Management confirmed the continuation of the buyback momentum despite regulatory uncertainties, with a focus on high-quality operations and customer acquisition strategies in China [34][36] Question: Trends in delinquency rates and revenue contribution from overseas markets - Management reported an increase in early risk indicators but noted signs of stabilization, with expectations for international revenue to account for roughly 30% of total revenue in 2026 [40][43] Question: Strategic thinking behind entering developed markets and current competitive environment - Management explained that entering developed markets like Australia allows the company to leverage its experience in China and Southeast Asia, with a focus on building resilience and capturing growth opportunities [49][51]

Core Insights - India and the European Union (EU) have finalized negotiations on financial services under the India-EU Free Trade Agreement (FTA), establishing a framework for bilateral cooperation and market access [1] Group 1: Trade Statistics - Total services trade between India and the EU was approximately $83 billion in 2024, with India exporting around $700 million and importing about $600 million in financial services [2] Group 2: Financial Services Framework - The financial services annex consists of 16 articles and aims to exceed standard General Agreement on Trade in Services (GATS) commitments [2] - The agreement includes provisions for cooperation on electronic payments and real-time transaction infrastructure, focusing on interoperability and cross-border payments [3] Group 3: Fintech Cooperation - India and the EU will collaborate on fintech initiatives, including supervisory technology (SupTech), regulatory technology (RegTech), and central bank digital currency (CBDC) [4] Group 4: Market Access and Treatment - The annex addresses discriminatory treatment in credit assessment, aiming to ensure parity with domestic institutions in the EU market and enhance market access for Indian financial institutions [5] - Specific commitments cover market access and national treatment in banking, insurance, and other financial services, referencing India's recent policy settings, including 100% foreign direct investment (FDI) in insurance and a 74% limit in banking [6] Group 5: Branch Expansion - The framework allows for the establishment of up to 15 bank branches over four years, an increase from the previous limit of 12 branches under GATS commitments [7] - Currently, three Indian banks operate in the EU, with a total of five branches, while the EU has five banks operating in India with 33 branches [7][8]

Core Insights - Diginex Limited is focusing on a strategic acquisition roadmap to enhance growth, market reach, and competitive positioning in the ESG and compliance sectors [1] Acquisition Updates - Diginex is in active discussions with Resulticks, with final terms for the transaction agreed upon and documentation being updated. The deal's cash consideration is expected to be contingent on a debt-based acquisition financing facility, avoiding equity dilution [2] - The acquisition process with IDRRA Cyber Security Ltd. (Findings) has been paused due to insufficient due diligence and progress, making a short-term acquisition unlikely [3] - Diginex has not received substantial due diligence from Kindred OS, leading to the conclusion that pursuing a definitive transaction is unwarranted, and the closing of this deal appears unlikely [4] Company Overview - Diginex Limited, headquartered in London, operates as a sustainable RegTech business, facilitating ESG, climate, and supply chain data collection and reporting through advanced technologies like blockchain and AI [5] - The diginexESG platform supports 19 global frameworks, including GRI, SASB, and TCFD, providing comprehensive support for clients in ESG reporting and compliance [6] About Resulticks - Resulticks is a provider of AI-powered, omnichannel customer engagement and data management solutions, serving clients across various industries in North America, Asia, and the Middle East [7] About Findings - Findings, also known as IDRRA Cyber Security Ltd., offers a supply chain risk monitoring platform, focusing on cybersecurity and compliance for enterprises [8][9] About Kindred OS - Kindred OS is developing the H1 Edge AI platform, which focuses on predictive analytics and local deployment of AI models in sectors like education and healthcare [9]

Core Insights - SEALSQ Corp has acquired a 28.3% equity stake in Wecan, a Swiss company specializing in digital compliance platforms for regulated institutions, marking a significant strategic move for both companies [1][5] - Vincent Pignon has resumed his role as CEO of Wecan to drive innovation and growth following the acquisition [1][2] - The partnership aims to integrate SEALSQ's cybersecurity and post-quantum technologies with Wecan's compliance platform, enhancing the digital infrastructure for the financial sector [5][6] Company Overview - SEALSQ is a leader in cybersecurity, semiconductor technology, and post-quantum security solutions, focusing on developing quantum-resistant cryptography and semiconductors [10][11] - Wecan, founded in 2015, has established itself as a prominent RegTech provider, serving over 100 financial institutions, including major Swiss banks [4][9] Industry Context - RegTech utilizes advanced technologies like AI, blockchain, and data analytics to streamline compliance processes, transforming compliance from a burden into a strategic advantage [3] - The collaboration between SEALSQ and Wecan aims to create a secure, scalable compliance infrastructure, addressing the growing need for efficient regulatory solutions in the financial sector [5][8] Strategic Roadmap - Near-term plans include launching an AI-driven interface for KYC updates and CRM integrations [8] - By 2026, the integration of SEALSQ's post-quantum encryption technology and a digital identity module is expected [8] - The introduction of real-time blockchain-based compliance and predictive AI tools is planned for 2027-2028 [8]

Core Insights - FactSet is launching its 2025 Buy-Side Forum series across four cities in the Asia-Pacific region to address the impact of AI-driven strategies and advanced data solutions on financial professionals amid market volatility and regulatory changes [1][2] Group 1: Event Details - The Buy-Side Forum will take place in Hong Kong on Nov. 4, followed by events in Tokyo (Nov. 6), Sydney (Nov. 11), and Singapore (Nov. 13) [1] - The forum aims to showcase how FactSet is driving innovation and helping clients succeed in the dynamic APAC financial markets [2] Group 2: Industry Challenges and Solutions - The forum will feature sessions on how front and middle office clients are utilizing FactSet's solutions to tackle pressing challenges in the financial sector [2][3] - Key topics include the use of predictive analytics for risk management, AI-driven reporting for compliance, and advancements in algorithmic trading and execution [5] Group 3: Technological Innovations - Asset managers are leveraging AI for real-time credit risk tracking and compliance as regulations tighten in markets like Singapore [5] - The transformation of market data infrastructure through cloud adoption and integration of alternative data is crucial for capturing opportunities in rapidly changing APAC markets [5] Group 4: Company Overview - FactSet provides enterprise data and information solutions, integrating proprietary financial data and advanced technology to enhance decision-making across various sectors [4][6] - The company serves approximately 9,000 global clients and has a presence in 20 countries, emphasizing innovation and long-term client success [4][6]

Core Insights - Digital initiatives in corporate America are failing to meet expectations, leading to significant productivity losses estimated at 21% due to disconnected systems and excessive manual intervention [2][4][26] - Companies are struggling with complex financial infrastructures, often managing multiple applications and logins, which complicates financial oversight and increases operational inefficiencies [3][5][30] - The fragmentation of data assets is resulting in a massive loss of potential value, as companies are not compensated for the data they provide to AI systems, leading to a significant wealth transfer to AI companies [10][12][13] Group 1: Digital Friction and Productivity Loss - Fortune 500 companies operate on an average of 254 applications, with employees managing 47 passwords, contributing to a 21% productivity drain [2][3] - Financial teams at large corporations face challenges in data reconciliation, spending excessive time on manual processes rather than strategic cash flow management [5][30] - The complexity of cross-border payments results in companies incurring 3% to 5% in transaction fees due to multiple intermediaries, highlighting the inefficiencies in current systems [6] Group 2: Financial Infrastructure Challenges - A treasury executive reported managing $2 billion across 27 financial relationships monthly, with significant time lost in reconciling data formats [5] - McKinsey research indicates that two-thirds of large tech programs exceed budgets and timelines, often by 50% or more, underscoring the challenges in financial infrastructure [5] - Companies are exploring next-generation financial solutions to unify management across traditional and digital assets, but regulatory uncertainties hinder widespread adoption [9][10] Group 3: Data Asset Management - Major publishers are losing out on the value generated from their content, which is used to train AI models worth billions without receiving compensation [10][12] - Startups are emerging with blockchain-based solutions aimed at providing transparency and compensation for data contributions, but established AI companies resist these changes [13] - The current landscape reflects a significant wealth transfer occurring in real-time, as companies fail to monetize their data effectively [10][12] Group 4: Identity Management Issues - IT departments spend 30% of their time on password resets, indicating a significant inefficiency in identity management systems [14] - Employees often have fragmented digital identities across various platforms, complicating integration and data management [15][16] - Major identity providers benefit from maintaining silos, which creates challenges for companies trying to streamline their identity management processes [15] Group 5: Access Complexity - Routine business operations, such as currency conversion, are hindered by complex interfaces, leading to significant time losses [19][20] - Traditional financial service providers have little incentive to simplify processes, as complexity supports their pricing models [20] - Emerging platforms are attempting to simplify access to digital assets, but compliance and auditability remain critical factors for enterprise adoption [21][22] Group 6: Regulatory and Competitive Landscape - Upcoming regulatory deadlines, such as EU DORA compliance in January 2025, are reshaping competitive advantages in the industry [28] - Companies that view compliance as a burden may miss opportunities for efficiency improvements [28] - The smart money is moving towards simplifying operations, as evidenced by companies like American Airlines and Reddit optimizing their processes and monetizing data effectively [24][25]

Industry Events & Discussions - Roundtable discussion on data privacy, RegTech, and SupTech to be held next week [1] - Chris Brummer, CEO of @blupryntco, and Ben Sherwin, General Counsel at @chainlinklabs, will participate in the discussion [1] Key Discussion Topics - Data privacy will be a central theme of the roundtable [1] - RegTech (Regulatory Technology) will be discussed [1] - SupTech (Supervisory Technology) will be discussed [1]