kalshi beats polymarket volume 3 months straight at $5.8b november, has cftc approval polymarket doesn't, tokenized everything on solana with phantom's 20m users. trades $11b vs polymarket targeting $15b despite better metrics and zero regulatory risk. paradigm funded both then published research cutting polymarket's numbers in half. that's my quant ...

Core Argument - Paramount Skydance is making a direct bid for Warner Bros. Discovery, offering $30 per share in cash, valuing the company at $108.4 billion, after being excluded from negotiations with Netflix [1][2] - Paramount claims its all-cash offer is worth $17.6 billion more to shareholders compared to Netflix's offer of $27.75 per share [2] Financing and Support - Paramount has secured financing from the Ellison family, RedBird Capital, major banks like Bank of America and Citi, and backing from Middle Eastern investors, including Saudi Arabia's Public Investment Fund [3] - Affinity Partners, linked to Jared Kushner, is also involved in the bid [3] Market Reaction - Following the announcement, shares of Paramount increased by 9%, Warner Bros. rose by 4%, while Netflix shares fell by 3% [3] Cost Savings and Offer Details - Paramount expects to achieve $6 billion in annual cost savings and argues that Warner Bros. Discovery ignored a superior offer made on December 4 [4] - The tender offer will remain open for 20 business days, with Warner Bros. required to respond within 10 days [4] Valuation and Regulatory Considerations - Paramount argues that Netflix's offer is undervalued when considering the debt-heavy cable networks, estimating those networks at $1 per share, effectively lowering Netflix's offer to around $28.75 [5] - Paramount anticipates regulatory approval for its bid within 12 months, compared to a longer timeline for Netflix's acquisition [5] Industry Positioning - Paramount is framing this bid as a strategic move for Hollywood's future, planning to release over 30 theatrical films annually and positioning itself as a stronger competitor against streaming giants [6] - The company argues that a Netflix-Warner Bros. merger would control 43% of global streaming subscribers, which it deems anticompetitive [6]

Joining us now is Jonathan Caner, former assistant attorney general for the antitrust division at the DOJ, also a CNBC contributor. We're lucky to have you close with us on this story. So, is Ted right that to feel confident that this is going to get all the approvals from the regulators.>> Well, Sarah, I think we've seen this movie before and it's called Spirit JetBlue. uh Spirit had the opportunity uh to do a deal with a less risky buyer and instead it took the premium and sold to a more risky buyer in Je ...

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company reported third quarter 2025 adjusted EPS of $1.11, an increase from $0.89 in the prior period [5][17] - Full year 2025 adjusted EPS guidance remains at $4.30-$4.70, with 2026 EPS guidance set at $4.80-$5.30 [6][21] - Third quarter 2025 GAAP earnings were $77 million, or $0.12 per share, compared to $638 million, or $1 per share in the same period last year [17] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Sempra California saw a $76 million increase in earnings primarily from higher income tax benefits, offset by higher net interest expense [18] - Sempra Texas reported $45 million of higher equity earnings due to increased invested capital and Oncor's system resiliency plan [19] - Sempra Infrastructure experienced a $26 million increase from higher asset optimization, despite lower transportation results [19] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Oncor's active load connections increased over 10% from the prior quarter, with a premise count increase of 16,000 [15] - The Texas 765 transmission expansion is projected to require $32 billion-$35 billion for full buildout, with Oncor expected to surpass 50% of this investment [16] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focusing on lower risk and higher value transmission and distribution investments, particularly in Texas [4] - A significant transaction involved selling a 45% stake in Sempra Infrastructure Partners for $10 billion, aimed at improving business growth and capital efficiency [7][8] - The company is prioritizing capital allocation to Texas, anticipating substantial increases in its capital plan [21] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the ongoing growth of utilities, particularly in Texas, and the importance of maintaining a strong balance sheet [30] - The company is optimistic about achieving strong year-over-year growth and is tracking several regulatory decisions that will impact financial results [18][62] Other Important Information - The enactment of California SB 254 is viewed as a significant de-risking event for California Electric Utilities [10] - The company is actively engaged in settlement discussions regarding Oncor's base rate review, with a hearing scheduled for November 17 [35] Q&A Session Summary Question: Balance sheet capacity for increased CapEx at Oncor - Management indicated that proceeds from the Sempra Infrastructure transaction are expected to eliminate the need for common equity in the 2025-2029 financing plan [26][27] Question: Update on Texas transmission expansion - Management confirmed ongoing settlement discussions and expressed confidence in the strength of their case regarding Oncor's base rate review [34][35] Question: Status of the SIP transaction and tax implications - Management confirmed that a 20% tax leakage estimate remains valid, with ongoing evaluations of the transaction's tax efficiency [42] Question: Load growth potential in Texas - Oncor is confident in doubling its load by 2030, driven by the state's desire to accelerate the transmission plan [53][54] Question: Confidence in achieving ROEs with increased capital spending - Management noted that Oncor's authorized ROE of 9.7% has been under-earning due to regulatory lag, but improvements are expected with the resolution of ongoing matters [95]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company reported third quarter 2025 adjusted EPS of $1.11, an increase from $0.89 in the prior period [5][17] - Full year 2025 adjusted EPS guidance remains at $4.30-$4.70, with 2026 EPS guidance set at $4.80-$5.30 [6][21] - Third quarter 2025 GAAP earnings were $77 million, or $0.12 per share, compared to $638 million, or $1 per share in the same period last year [17] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Sempra California saw a $76 million increase in earnings primarily from higher income tax benefits, offset by higher net interest expense [18] - Sempra Texas reported $45 million of higher equity earnings due to increased invested capital and Oncor's system resiliency plan [19] - Sempra Infrastructure experienced a $26 million increase from higher asset optimization, despite lower transportation results [19] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Oncor's active LC&I queue increased over 10% from the prior quarter, with a premise count increase of 16,000 [15] - The Texas 765 transmission expansion is projected to require $32 billion-$35 billion for full buildout, with Oncor's portion expected to exceed 50% [16] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focusing on lower risk and higher value transmission and distribution investments, particularly in Texas [4] - A significant transaction involved selling a 45% stake in Sempra Infrastructure Partners for $10 billion, aimed at improving business growth and capital efficiency [7][8] - The company is prioritizing capital allocation to Texas, anticipating a substantial increase in Oncor's capital plan by over 30% [21] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the ongoing growth in Texas and the importance of maintaining a strong balance sheet to support future growth [30] - The company is optimistic about achieving strong year-over-year growth and is tracking several regulatory decisions that will impact financial results [18][21] Other Important Information - The company is actively engaged in regulatory matters in California, including the GRC and cost of capital proceedings [11] - The Port Arthur LNG Phase I project is on schedule, with Train One expected to reach COD in 2027 [12] Q&A Session Summary Question: Balance sheet capacity for increased CapEx at Oncor - Management indicated that proceeds from the Sempra Infrastructure transaction are expected to eliminate the need for common equity in the 2025-2029 financing plan [26][27] Question: Status of the SIP transaction and tax implications - The company is still assuming around a 20% tax leakage from the SIP transaction, with ongoing evaluations [42] Question: Load growth potential in Texas - Oncor is confident in doubling its load by 2030, driven by the state's desire to support the oil and gas industry [52][53] Question: ROE expectations with increased capital spending - Management expects a material improvement in ROE as regulatory lag issues are resolved and a new test year is established [96] Question: Equipment and supply chain readiness for capital plans - The company has made significant investments in its supply chain and logistics to ensure readiness for its growth plans [70][71] Question: Strategic options for California utilities - Management emphasized that California remains an important part of the company, complementing growth in Texas while minimizing customer bill impacts [84][86]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company reported third quarter 2025 adjusted EPS of $1.11, an increase from $0.89 in the prior period [5][17] - Full year 2025 adjusted EPS guidance range is affirmed at $4.30-$4.70, with 2026 EPS guidance at $4.80-$5.30 [5][17] - Third quarter 2025 GAAP earnings were $77 million, or $0.12 per share, compared to $638 million, or $1 per share in the same quarter of 2024 [17] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Sempra California saw a $76 million increase in earnings primarily from higher income tax benefits, offset by higher net interest expense [18] - Sempra Texas reported $45 million of higher equity earnings due to increased invested capital and Oncor's system resiliency plan [19] - Sempra Infrastructure experienced a $26 million increase from higher asset optimization, partially offset by lower transportation results [19] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Oncor's active load connections increased by over 10% from the prior quarter, with a premise count increase of 16,000 [15] - The Texas 765 transmission expansion is projected to require $32 billion-$35 billion for full buildout, with Oncor's portion expected to exceed 50% [16] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focusing on lower risk and higher value transmission and distribution investments, particularly in Texas [4] - A significant transaction to sell a 45% stake in Sempra Infrastructure Partners for $10 billion is expected to improve the business growth profile and unlock reinvestment capital [6][7] - The company aims to fortify its balance sheet and improve credit metrics through strategic capital allocation [6][30] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the ongoing growth in Texas and the potential for substantial capital investment opportunities [20] - The company is tracking several regulatory matters in California that are expected to influence financial results [18] - Management remains optimistic about achieving the 2025 guidance and anticipates strong year-over-year growth [62] Other Important Information - The company is actively engaged in improving community safety and operational excellence, including efforts to enhance the regulatory environment [7] - The ongoing sales process for EcoGas is generating significant interest, with final bids expected before year-end [7] Q&A Session Summary Question: How is the company viewing balance sheet capacity for increased CapEx at Oncor? - Management indicated that proceeds from the Sempra Infrastructure transaction are expected to eliminate 100% of the common equity previously in the financing plan, fortifying the balance sheet for growth [28][30] Question: What is the status of the base rate review in Texas? - Management confirmed that settlement discussions are ongoing, with a hearing set for November 17th, and expressed confidence in the strength of their case [36][38] Question: What is the expected leakage from the SIP transaction? - Management stated that a 20% leakage is still a good estimate, considering the complexity of the assets involved [44] Question: How does the company view the load growth pipeline in Texas? - Management noted that Oncor's system is expected to double its load by 2030, driven by the state's desire to support the oil and gas industry [54][56] Question: What is the company's approach to equity needs moving forward? - Management indicated that while equity issuance is not off the table, they are focused on maintaining a strong balance sheet and will consider all funding options as needed [96]

Core Insights - Fidelity Investments has filed a pre-effective amendment for its Solana ETF, moving towards automatic effectiveness with a 0.25% annual fee, waived for the first six months [1] - The Solana ETF market is rapidly expanding, with three products already launched on U.S. exchanges, capturing over $81 million in first-day inflows [2] Fund Structure and Strategy - The Fidelity Solana Fund will stake up to 100% of its SOL tokens through custodians like Anchorage Digital, BitGo, and Coinbase Custody, with a 15% fee on staking rewards [3] - The fund will trade under the ticker FSOL, offering creation and redemption baskets of 25,000 shares settled in SOL or cash, supported by trading agreements with various counterparties [4] Market Competition - Bitwise's Solana ETF captured $69.5 million on its debut, significantly outperforming Rex-Osprey's product, which raised $12 million [6] - Grayscale launched its Solana Trust ETF shortly after, converting a private trust with 525,387 SOL tokens, and charging a 0.35% expense ratio while staking 74.89% of assets [7]

Core Viewpoint - XRP experienced a significant decline, dropping as much as 42% in a single day due to whale liquidations and a substantial decrease in futures open interest, indicating forced deleveraging across corporate desks [1][2]. Price Action Summary - XRP's price fell from $2.82 to $2.36, marking a 16% daily loss, with intraday volatility peaking at 43% and a low of $1.64 reached during liquidation sweeps [2][5]. - The heaviest liquidation occurred between 15:00–21:00 UTC, with hourly volume hitting 817.6 million [5]. - Late-session buying helped stabilize the price near $2.35–$2.40, with accumulation volumes exceeding 12 million in the final 15 minutes [3]. Market Context - Ripple's ecosystem is under macro and structural stress due to global trade tensions, diverging central-bank policies, and uncertainty regarding U.S. digital banking licenses [4]. - The deadline for Ripple's National Trust charter passed on October 7, increasing regulatory risk premiums for XRP-linked institutional products [4]. Technical Analysis - Momentum indicators show RSI levels near multi-month lows, with expanding volatility bands suggesting potential base formation [6]. - Support is established around $2.30–$2.35, with extended downside risk to $2.22 if trading volume decreases [8]. - Resistance levels are layered at $2.84–$2.90, with $3.05 identified as a macro breakout trigger [8]. Trading Considerations - Traders are monitoring whether the $2.30 support zone will attract sustained whale accumulation and the potential rebuild of open interest following a $150 million contraction in derivatives markets [8]. - Regulatory clarity following the Ripple charter review could impact corporate adoption of XRP [8]. - Cross-asset spillover from Bitcoin's rally may lead to a relief rotation back into XRP, with technical confirmation needed above $2.90 to invalidate short-term bearish bias [8].

Core Viewpoint - Kenvue faces significant regulatory and reputational challenges due to unsubstantiated claims linking acetaminophen to autism during pregnancy, which threatens its Self-Care segment revenue [1][2] Company Overview - Kenvue, a consumer health company spun off from Johnson & Johnson in 2023, is defending the safety of acetaminophen, asserting that over a decade of research shows no credible evidence linking it to autism [2] - The company has experienced a market capitalization of $34 billion, but its stock has declined approximately 20% in 2025 due to concerns over market share erosion and litigation risks [4] Financial Performance - In Q2 of 2025, Kenvue reported a 4.2% decline in organic sales, with adjusted earnings narrowing from $0.32 per share to $0.29 per share over the last 12 months [5] Leadership Changes - Recent leadership changes, including the appointment of interim CEO Kirk Perry, who has over 30 years of experience in consumer packaged goods and technology, provide cautious optimism for the company's future [6] - The new leadership indicates a strategic pivot towards operational excellence and consumer-centric execution [6]

Core Viewpoint - The Australian market has seen nearly $40 billion in failed buyouts this year, the highest in fifteen years, primarily due to regulatory risks and misaligned valuations [1][3]. Group 1: Market Overview - The ADNOC-led consortium's $18.7 billion bid for Santos, Australia's second-largest gas producer, is among the notable deals that have collapsed this year [1][2]. - The total value of failed deals has reached the highest level since 2010, raising concerns about the feasibility of large-scale transactions in Australia [3]. Group 2: Regulatory Environment - A lengthy approval process involving the Australian Competition and Consumer Commission (ACCC), Foreign Investment Review Board (FIRB), and other agencies has made deal execution more challenging [3]. - New ACCC rules effective from January 1 require mandatory pre-approval for most deals, adding complexity to the deal-making landscape [4][5]. Group 3: Industry Sentiment - Despite public equity markets being at record highs and funding being readily available, factors such as technological disruption and new regulatory requirements have hindered M&A activity [4]. - The ACCC's push for a mandatory approval process has created uncertainty and added burdens to deal activity, contrasting with previous voluntary approval options [5].