and welcome back to Morning Trade Live. It's time now for the big picture. So, let's welcome in the team from Charles Schwab.Nathan Peterson, director of derivatives analysis, Schwab Center for Financial Research, and Michelle Gibli, director of international equity research and strategy. A very good morning to you both. Thanks so much for joining us.Nate, I do want to just start with you because it's been such an interesting just over 24 hours. is I know that there's been a lot of talk uh particularly over ...

Market Overview - The BSE PSU Bank index fell by 5.65% due to heavy selling pressure in Indian equities, driven by escalating geopolitical tensions involving Iran, Israel, and the United States [1][9] - The conflict has led to an increase in crude oil prices, raising concerns about the impact on the Indian rupee and overall macroeconomic stability, resulting in negative performance across all sectoral indices [1][9] Company Performance - State Bank of India (SBI) shares declined by 5.60% to Rs 1,079.40, resulting in a market capitalisation loss of approximately Rs 62,352 crore, bringing its total market capitalisation to around Rs 9.93 lakh crore [9] - SBI's 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 47.2, indicating a broadly neutral momentum with a slight negative bias [2][10] - The stock is trading below five of its eight key simple moving averages (SMAs), suggesting near-term bearish sentiment, but remains above longer-term 100-day, 150-day, and 200-day SMAs, indicating broader trend support [5][10] Financial Performance - SBI reported a net profit of Rs 21,028 crore for the December 2025 quarter, reflecting a 24.5% year-over-year growth, indicating stable operational performance [7][10] - The bank's current price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is 12.97, and the price-to-book (P/B) ratio is 2.14, suggesting relatively reasonable valuations compared to the broader market [7][10] Institutional Holdings - Foreign Portfolio Investors (FPIs) increased their stake in SBI from 9.57% in the September 2025 quarter to 10.34% in the December 2025 quarter, indicating growing interest from overseas investors [8][10] - Conversely, mutual funds slightly reduced their holdings from 14.23% to 13.76% during the same period [8][10]

Bitcoin is now near one of the lowest readings ever on the Relative Strength Index 👀Translation: Bitcoin is at historically oversold levels.Buy. The. Freaking. Dip. 👏 https://t.co/WUmbYv0TZc ...

RingCentral (RNG) shares soared on Feb. 20 after the communication technology company posted a surprise profit for its fiscal Q4, marking a significant turnaround from $7.19 million loss a year ago. Investors cheered RNG also because the Supreme Court struck down President Donald Trump’s tariffs, positioning the NYSE-listed firm to grow margins as it relies heavily on a global supply chain and international clients. More News from Barchart Versus its year-to-date low, RingCentral stock is now up nearly ...

Core Viewpoint - MicroStrategy's stock experienced a decline of nearly 4% despite positive corporate news and a recent Bitcoin purchase, indicating underlying selling pressure and potential risks ahead [1]. Group 1: Bitcoin Acquisition - MicroStrategy purchased 2,486 Bitcoin at an average price of $67,710, increasing total holdings from 714,644 BTC to 717,131 BTC [2]. - The recent acquisition lowered MicroStrategy's average Bitcoin cost basis from $76,052 to $76,027, resulting in a $25 reduction [3]. - Although the balance sheet shows slight improvement, the average cost remains significantly above $76,000, which is higher than many previous acquisitions [5]. Group 2: Investor Sentiment and Market Indicators - The Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) indicator, which reflects large investor behavior, has been trending lower and is close to breaking below zero, indicating weak capital inflows [6][7]. - Despite the Bitcoin purchase, large investors are not aggressively accumulating MicroStrategy stock, suggesting a lack of confidence in the stock's performance [7]. - Momentum analysis using the Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicates a hidden bearish divergence, warning of potential price corrections for MicroStrategy [10].

Core Viewpoint - Crocs (CROX) shares surged over 20% following a strong Q4 earnings report and optimistic guidance for the full year, indicating robust market performance and potential for future growth [1]. Financial Performance - Crocs reported Q4 revenue of $958 million and adjusted earnings of $2.29 per share, surpassing market expectations [3]. - The company's international growth was 11.9% in Q4, compensating for a 7.4% decline in North American sales [3]. Growth Potential - The brand's expansion in international markets, where penetration is still below mature market levels, suggests significant future growth opportunities [4]. - Management's cost reduction initiatives aim to achieve $100 million in efficiency, projecting earnings per share (EPS) to exceed $13, well above the $11.89 consensus [6]. Shareholder Returns - In Q4, Crocs repurchased $180 million of its stock, reflecting confidence in the company's future performance [5]. - With $750 million remaining in stock buyback authorization, Crocs has the flexibility for future capital returns [5]. Debt Management - The company reduced its debt by $128 million last year, alleviating a burden that has affected its share price [6]. Seasonal Trends - Historically, Crocs shares have gained over 4% in March, indicating a favorable seasonal trend for investors [6].

Core Insights - Tron founder Justin Sun has emphasized the company's strategy of accumulating TRX as a core treasury asset, showcasing resilience in the ongoing crypto market downturn [1] - Tron aims to expand its digital asset treasury (DAT) to enhance long-term shareholder value [2] TRX Market Performance - TRX has outperformed much of the crypto market, with a year-to-date decline of only 1.3%, while Bitcoin has fallen by 19% [3] - Despite a 25% drop in the total crypto market cap in January, Tron's market value only decreased by 4% [3] Network Activity - Tron recorded over 100 million monthly active addresses in January, with the stablecoin market cap on the network reaching $84.5 billion [4] - Transaction activity surged to 342 million during the same period [4] Technical Analysis - TRX is currently trading below the 20-day Bollinger Bands midline, indicating ongoing selling pressure, though not extreme [5] - The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is around 34, suggesting bearish momentum but potential for a short-term bounce if selling pressure eases [5] Analyst Opinions - Analyst SilverBullet has indicated that TRX may be overvalued and could experience a significant drop, with key support around $0.27 [6] - If TRX can reclaim the Bollinger midline and surpass the $0.30 resistance level, a short-term rally to $0.32 could occur [7]

Core Viewpoint - Shopify Inc (NASDAQ:SHOP) stock experienced a pullback in January, reaching a nearly six-month low, but has recently shown signs of a potential short-term rebound with shares up 1.8% to $133.59 [1] Group 1: Stock Performance and Indicators - The stock is currently within 0.75 of its 260-day moving average, with shares remaining above this level 80% of the time over the past two weeks and 80% of the last 42 trading sessions [2] - Historical data indicates that similar conditions have led to a 100% success rate of the stock being higher one month later, with an average gain of 12.1%, suggesting a potential target price of $149.75 [2] - The 14-day relative strength index (RSI) for Shopify is at 16.4, indicating it is in "oversold" territory, which often precedes a short-term bounce [4]

Apple (AAPL) will release its first-quarter fiscal 2026 financial results on Thursday, Jan. 29. Shares of the iPhone maker have retreated from recent highs heading into the earnings report, largely reflecting investor unease about profitability. Apple’s underlying business momentum appears strong. Management has guided for a record quarter, supported by robust performance across both hardware and services. iPhone sales are expected to be a key driver, with revenue projected to remain solid. The primary ov ...

Core Viewpoint - Mosaic Co (NYSE:MOS) has seen an 18% increase in stock price since the beginning of the year, but may face a short-term pullback due to a historically bearish trendline [1] Group 1: Stock Performance and Trends - The stock is currently within 0.75 of the 126-day moving average's 20-day average true range (ATR), having remained below this level 80% of the time over the past two weeks and 80% of the last 42 trading sessions [2] - Historical data shows that similar signals have occurred 17 times in the past decade, with the stock declining one month later 76% of the time, averaging a 5.7% loss [2] - A potential decline from the current price of $28.47 could bring the stock down to approximately $26.84 [2] Group 2: Technical Indicators - The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) for Mosaic stock is at 75.1, indicating it is in "overbought" territory [4] - Options for the stock appear affordable, with a Schaeffer's Volatility Index (SVI) of 39% ranking in the 23rd percentile of its annual range [4] - The Schaeffer's Volatility Scorecard (SVS) for MOS is high at 91 out of 100, suggesting that the stock has exceeded option traders' volatility expectations over the past year [4]