21世纪经济报道记者 唐婧 1月15日，人民银行新闻发言人、副行长邹澜在国新办新闻发布会上表示，从法定存款准备金率看，目 前金融机构的平均法定存款准备金率为6.3%，降准仍然有空间。 从政策利率来看，外部约束方面，目前人民币汇率比较稳定，美元处于降息通道。总体来看，对降息不 构成很强的约束。内部约束方面，2025年以来，银行净息差已经出现企稳的迹象，连续两个季度保持在 1.42%， 2026年还有规模较大的三年期及五年期的长期存款到期重定价，近期人民银行也下调了各项再 贷款利率，这些都有助于降低银行付息成本，稳定净息差，为降息创造一定空间。 邹澜还表示，人民银行将落实中央经济工作会议的决策部署，继续实施适度宽松的货币政策，发挥存量 政策和增量政策的集成效应，加强跨周期和逆周期调节，为经济稳定增长和高质量发展创造适宜的货币 金融环境。 邹澜还称，人民银行还将继续综合施策，促进社会综合融资成本低位运行。比如推动明示贷款综合融资 成本，组织银行会同企业填写贷款明白纸，详细明示企业获得贷款需要承担的利息和非利息成本，促进 降低评估担保等融资中介费用，减轻企业费用支出，优化融资环境，强化利率政策执行和监督，发挥好 利率 ...

Core Viewpoint - The bond market is experiencing a narrow fluctuation, with the 10-year government bond yield stabilizing around 1.81%, while expectations for monetary easing are increasing due to economic pressures [1][3][5]. Group 1: Market Trends - The interbank bond market yields have shown slight fluctuations, with the 3-month yield around 1.35%, the 2-year yield at 1.43%, and the 10-year yield at 1.81% [3]. - Analysts maintain an optimistic outlook for the bond market, citing the central bank's commitment to maintaining relatively loose financing conditions [3][4]. Group 2: Monetary Policy Expectations - There is a growing expectation for "double cuts" (interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio cuts) due to marginal increases in economic recovery pressures and liquidity constraints [5][6]. - The central bank's monetary policy report has shifted focus away from preventing capital idling, indicating a more optimistic stance on future liquidity conditions [3][4]. Group 3: Investment Strategies - Analysts suggest a "barbell" strategy for bond investments, balancing short-term safety with long-term trading opportunities to manage potential market volatility [9]. - The bond market is expected to enter a "chaotic period" with limited space for both bullish and bearish movements, as the market awaits clearer signals for direction [8].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article emphasizes that China's monetary policy is shifting towards reserve requirement ratio (RRR) cuts instead of aggressive interest rate reductions, aiming to protect bank interest margins and maintain indirect financing channels while allowing for gradual interest rate decreases and innovative structural tools to stabilize finance and promote transformation [2] Group 2 - Since 2016, China has adjusted the RRR 23 times, all downward, with the RRR for large deposit-taking financial institutions decreasing from 17.5% to 9.0%, a total drop of 8.5 percentage points [3] - The policy interest rates have only been adjusted 14 times since 2016, indicating a preference for RRR cuts over significant interest rate reductions [3][4] - The net interest margin for commercial banks has decreased to 1.42%, the lowest in history, highlighting the importance of maintaining this margin for the stability of the banking sector [4] Group 3 - RRR cuts will increase the funds available for commercial banks, enabling better support for proactive fiscal policies, as approximately 68% of national debt and 75% of local government debt are held by commercial banks [5] - The effectiveness of monetary policy is largely dependent on the cooperation of commercial banks and the financial system, especially given the low excess reserve ratio in China [5] Group 4 - There is still room for interest rate cuts in China, but the low elasticity of consumption and investment to interest rates limits the effectiveness of sustained large cuts [6] - The decrease in interest rates has led to a reduction in household deposits, with a drop of 1.11 trillion yuan in July, indicating a significant relationship between declining interest rates and reduced household savings [6][7] - Structural monetary policy tools have been increasingly important, with innovations supporting weak economic sectors and key areas such as technology innovation and green development [7]

Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry Overview - The notes primarily discuss the bond market and monetary policy in the context of recent adjustments in deposit rates and liquidity measures by the central bank [1][2][4][5]. Key Points and Arguments 1. **Bond Market Trends** - The bond market is currently experiencing fluctuations, with yields declining due to expectations of deposit rate cuts. However, the overall market remains in a state of adjustment [2][4]. - Credit bonds have shown a positive performance, particularly in the medium to short-term segments, while long-term credit bonds have underperformed compared to their government counterparts [3][15]. 2. **Liquidity and Monetary Policy** - The central bank is expected to maintain a stable and loose liquidity stance following recent rate cuts, with potential for structural monetary policy measures to enhance liquidity [5][9]. - There was a temporary tightening observed after the rate cut, attributed to banks needing to replenish excess reserves based on a 10-day or bi-weekly average assessment method [6][10]. 3. **Impact of Deposit Rate Changes** - Changes in the deposit base directly affect the amount of excess reserves banks need to hold. An increase in the deposit base during the maintenance period leads to higher requirements for excess reserves [7][8]. - The anticipated cut in the reserve requirement ratio (RRR) is expected to release approximately 1 trillion in liquidity, although actual releases may be lower due to recalibrations [8]. 4. **Market Sentiment and Future Outlook** - The sentiment in the credit bond market remains optimistic, with expectations of further easing that could push rates below 1.4%. Short-term credit bonds are particularly volatile [16][17]. - The current yield levels in the credit bond market are at historically low levels, indicating limited protection from interest rate fluctuations [18]. 5. **Investment Strategies** - Institutions with stable liabilities are advised to extend durations to 2-4 years and consider lower-rated city investment bonds, which are expected to improve in liquidity [23]. - High-rated, liquid investments such as 4-5 year secondary capital bonds are recommended, but caution is advised due to limited protection [23]. Additional Important Insights - The bond market's performance is influenced by various factors, including tax periods and government bond payments, which can absorb liquidity [12]. - The historical trend shows that liquidity prices tend to stabilize or decline marginally within two weeks following a rate cut, although specific circumstances can vary [10]. - The secondary capital bond market has seen a significant decline in yields, indicating reduced investment opportunities [19]. - The current market environment favors certain types of bonds, such as real estate bonds and medium-duration city investment bonds, which exhibit better liquidity [22]. This summary encapsulates the essential insights from the conference call, focusing on the bond market dynamics, monetary policy implications, and strategic investment recommendations.