Summary of Morgan Stanley Global Macro Forum Call Industry and Company Involvement - The call involves insights from Morgan Stanley's Global Macro Strategy team, focusing on macroeconomic trends and financial markets, particularly in the US and Japan. Core Insights and Arguments - **Fed Outlook**: Kevin Warsh's nomination does not significantly change the Federal Reserve's outlook. Two additional rate cuts are expected in the second half of the year due to disinflation, with gradual changes likely under a Warsh-led Fed, primarily through balance sheet policy rather than interest rates [39][39][39]. - **Yield Curve Dynamics**: A smaller Fed footprint in communications and balance sheet management is anticipated to steepen the yield curve. Investor speculation regarding the Fed's intentions may influence the swap spread curve [39][39][39]. - **JGB Yield Forecast**: The forecast for Japanese Government Bonds (JGB) yields has been revised higher due to an improved US growth outlook and changes in the Bank of Japan's (BoJ) stance. A bear-steepening trend is expected as the BoJ gradually hikes rates, with persistent weak supply/demand dynamics in the 10-year plus sector [39][39][39]. - **US Rates Volatility**: US rates volatility has decreased due to low realized volatility and a surge in callable bond issuance. A near-term rebound is possible due to a two-week issuance gap around the Chinese New Year, with reduced demand from Chinese banks for supranational callables [39][39][39]. - **FX Volatility**: The increase in FX volatility appears isolated, indicating FX-specific risks rather than broader macroeconomic risks. The USD risk premium remains elevated, but medium-term risks to the USD are high. A bullish stance is maintained on risk assets, particularly AUD, CAD, EM FX, and SEK [39][39][39]. Other Important Points - **Volatility Trends**: Rates volatility has not increased alongside FX volatility, with the VIX remaining stable despite higher FX volatility [30][30][30]. - **Short USD Positioning**: There has been a reduction in short USD positioning, while USD risk premia have returned to levels seen in Q2 2025 [32][35][35]. - **Market Dynamics**: The dynamics between the 10-year and shorter-term sectors are driven more by inflation concerns than fiscal concerns, with the 2-year and 10-year term premiums trading in parallel [14][14][14]. This summary encapsulates the key points discussed during the Morgan Stanley Global Macro Forum, highlighting the macroeconomic outlook, interest rate expectations, and market dynamics in both the US and Japan.