Good Times Restaurants (NasdaqCM:GTIM) Q1 2026 Earnings call February 05, 2026 05:00 PM ET Company ParticipantsKeri August - Chief Accounting OfficerKevin Holden - Founder and CEORyan Zink - CEOOperatorHello, everyone. Thank you for joining us, and welcome to the Good Times Restaurants Incorporated Q1 2026 earnings call. After today's prepared remarks, we will host a question and answer session. If you would like to ask a question, please press star one on your telephone keypad. To withdraw your question, p ...

Core Insights - Costco is a significant player in the global retail market with fiscal 2025 net sales of $270 billion, showcasing its strong long-term performance [1] - The stock has appreciated 540% over the past decade, although it is currently trading 9% below its peak as of January 23 [2] Group 1: Same-Store Sales - Same-store sales (SSS) are crucial for measuring organic revenue growth and management effectiveness [3] - Costco has maintained a positive SSS track record over the last six fiscal years, demonstrating resilience despite economic challenges such as the pandemic and inflation [4] Group 2: Membership Renewal Rates - Costco has 81.4 million members, contributing to a high-margin recurring revenue stream of $1.3 billion in Q1 2026 [5] - The membership renewal rate was 92.2% in the U.S. and Canada and 89.7% globally, though slightly down from the previous quarter due to digital member renewals [6] Group 3: New Warehouse Openings - Costco operates 921 warehouses globally and plans to add 28 net new locations in fiscal 2026, aiming for 30 or more openings annually [8] - New warehouses opened in fiscal 2025 generated an average of $192 million in annualized net sales, reflecting a 28% increase from those opened in fiscal 2023 [9]

Core Viewpoint - Chipotle has reaffirmed its outlook for same-store sales to decline in the low-single digit range for fiscal year 2025, marking the first decline in over 20 years [1] Group 1: Same-Store Sales Performance - Bloomberg Intelligence analyst Michael Halen noted that same-store sales may have dropped by 1.8% in 2025, which would be the first decline in 23 years of publicly available data [2] - During the E. coli crisis in 2015, comparable sales only rose by 0.2%, indicating a significant shift in consumer behavior [2] - Promotions such as free chips and buy-one-get-one offers may have temporarily boosted same-store sales but could weaken the perceived value of the full menu [3] Group 2: Marketing and Brand Management - Chipotle's marketing spend increased by 90 basis points year-over-year in the third quarter, with efforts aimed at attracting younger and lower-income consumers [5] - The company has implemented various promotions, including college football BOGO offers and a digital trivia game, to engage customers [5] - Chris Brandt, the president and chief brand officer, has stepped down, which may impact ongoing marketing strategies [4][6] Group 3: Leadership Changes - Stephanie Perdue has been appointed as the interim chief marketing officer following Brandt's departure [6] - Roger Theodoredis, the chief legal officer, has also stepped down from the company [6]

Core Viewpoint - Urban Outfitters (NASDAQ: URBN) experienced an 11% decline in stock price despite reporting record holiday sales for November and December, with total sales rising 9% compared to the previous year [1]. Sales Performance - Same-store sales increased by 5% overall, with specific growth rates of 3% at Anthropologie, 5% at Free People, 9% at Urban Outfitters, and 18% at FP Movement [3]. - For the year-to-date period from February to December, Urban Outfitters reported an 11% increase in sales and a 6% increase in comparable sales, indicating a slowdown in growth during the holiday season compared to earlier in the year [3]. Market Expectations - Analysts had anticipated sales growth exceeding 9% for the January quarter, but the holiday sales figures suggest Urban Outfitters may underperform against these expectations, potentially leading to a "miss" in the upcoming earnings report [4]. Valuation Concerns - Urban Outfitters stock is currently priced at 15 times trailing earnings, with a price-to-free cash flow ratio of 18 times, indicating a potentially overvalued position given the forecasted earnings growth of less than 10% over the next five years [6]. - The recent holiday sales miss raises concerns that both sales and earnings growth may fall short of previous targets, further complicating the stock's valuation [6]. Investment Considerations - With shares up 46% over the past year, it may be an opportune moment for investors to consider selling Urban Outfitters stock [7]. - The Motley Fool Stock Advisor has identified ten stocks that are currently preferred over Urban Outfitters, suggesting alternative investment opportunities [10].

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Total sales for the fiscal first quarter were $73.5 million, up from $64.5 million in the prior year period, representing a comparable sales growth of negative 2.5% [10][12] - Cost of goods sold as a percentage of sales was 29.9%, compared to 29% in the prior year quarter, influenced by tariffs on imported ingredients [11][12] - Labor costs as a percentage of sales decreased to 32.5% from 32.9% in the prior year, attributed to operational initiatives [6][11] - Net loss was $3.1 million, or negative $0.25 per share, compared to a net loss of $1 million, or negative $0.08 per share in the prior year [12][14] - Adjusted net loss was $2.8 million, or negative $0.23 per share, compared to an adjusted net loss of $1 million, or negative $0.08 per share in the prior year [13] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company opened four new restaurants in the first quarter and has 10 units under construction, with plans to open one more in the fiscal second quarter [4][7] - Restaurant-level operating profit as a percentage of sales was 15.1%, down from 18.2% in the prior year quarter [13] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Comparable sales in the West Coast market were negative 2.8%, and in the Southwest market, they were negative 2.7% [10] - Effective pricing for the quarter was 3.5%, with expectations for the second quarter to be 4.5% after lapping prior year increases [10] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company aims to open 16 new units in fiscal 2026, maintaining an annual unit growth rate above 20% [14] - The focus on aggressive cost management has reduced general and administrative expenses as a percentage of sales by 80 basis points on an adjusted basis [4] - The company is leveraging technology, such as robotic dishwashers, to improve operational efficiency [8] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in achieving qualitative comparable sales for the year, citing strong momentum from the end of the first quarter into the second [4][26] - The management noted that the pricing taken in November has led to improved traffic and sales, indicating a positive consumer response [26][32] - There is optimism regarding the potential for improved margins and sales as the company navigates tariff impacts and operational efficiencies [32][46] Other Important Information - The company has $78.5 million in cash and no debt, indicating strong liquidity [14] - The company is currently engaged in marketing campaigns tied to popular IPs, which have been well received by customers [8][105] Q&A Session Summary Question: Discussion on decoupling the reservation system from loyalty - Management noted that more than half of visits by rewards members are through the reservation system, indicating better-than-expected uptake [21][22] Question: Expectations for Q2 comparable sales - Management expects positive comps for Q2, supported by strong performance in November and December [26] Question: Impact of tariffs on food costs - Management indicated that food costs are expected to be around 30%, with a significant impact from tariffs, but negotiations have helped mitigate some costs [31][32] Question: Future promotions and collaborations - Management highlighted successful collaborations with popular IPs and plans for future promotions, including Sanrio and Jujutsu Kaisen [107] Question: Long-term growth targets - Management reiterated the target of 16 new units for the year, with no changes to the long-term growth target of 300 units in the U.S. [95][61]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company aims for an annual system sales growth of 8%+, supported by approximately 3% comparable sales growth and around 5% net unit growth over time [2] - The international business has shown strong performance, with 18 consecutive quarters of positive same-store sales [16][44] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Tim Hortons in Canada has been performing exceptionally well, being the number one brand in value for money and convenience, with about 4,000 restaurants [39] - Burger King in the U.S. has maintained consistent promotions like the $5 Duos and $7 Trios, contributing to its performance despite a challenging environment [12][30] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The Canadian consumer environment has been stable, with some improvement in consumer confidence and a slight decrease in unemployment [6] - The U.S. lower-income consumer segment has been softer, while middle and upper tiers have shown more strength [7][8] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on simplifying its business model, aiming to be predominantly asset-light and franchised, with significant steps taken in refranchising and partnerships [25][26] - The partnership with CPE in China is seen as a strategic move to enhance growth and operational efficiency in that market [50][53] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management acknowledges the competitive pressure from food at home versus food away from home, emphasizing the importance of value for money [10][11] - The company is optimistic about returning to modestly positive unit growth in 2026, with a focus on untapped potential in various international markets [67] Other Important Information - An Investor Day is scheduled for February 26, 2024, to provide further insights into the company's strategy and performance [14] - The company has seen significant growth in its international markets, particularly in France, Germany, and Australia, with ongoing expansion in India and China [44][46][48] Q&A Session Summary Question: How do you describe the health of the consumer across different groups? - Management noted a mixed environment, with lower-income consumers being softer while middle and upper tiers remain strong [6][7] Question: What is the company's strategy regarding pricing in the current environment? - The company has been prudent about pricing, focusing on value for money across its brands [11][12] Question: What are the key drivers of success for the company in the current environment? - Key drivers include value for money positioning, innovation in product offerings, and operational improvements [29][30] Question: What are the expectations for unit growth in the coming years? - The company expects to return to 5% unit growth by 2028, with modestly positive growth anticipated in 2026 [57][66]

Core Insights - Chipotle reported a slight increase in same-store sales of 0.3% in the third quarter, following two consecutive negative quarters, although transaction numbers remained negative [1][2] - CEO Scott Boatwright indicated that the disappointing results were partly self-inflicted, but primarily due to a significant pullback from their core audience, particularly households earning under $100,000 [2][3] - The company has adjusted its same-store sales forecast downward for the third consecutive quarter, now expecting a low-single-digit decline for the full year, which negatively impacted its stock price [3] Sales and Customer Trends - 40% of Chipotle's total sales come from households with incomes below $100,000, a demographic that has reduced spending across various sectors [2] - Younger consumers aged 25 to 35, a key demographic for Chipotle, are also dining out less frequently, contributing to the decline in transactions [2][3] - Despite the decline in visit frequency, Chipotle is gaining market share, with customers shifting their spending from restaurants to grocery and food-at-home options [3] Strategic Initiatives - Chipotle is implementing a plan to reverse recent trends, focusing on in-restaurant execution, enhanced marketing, improved digital experiences, and menu innovation [4] - The company has increased its marketing efforts and introduced new menu items, such as carne asada and red chimichurri, which received positive consumer feedback [4] - Chipotle plans to maintain a conservative pricing strategy despite anticipated high inflation in 2026, aiming to enhance the overall value proposition while managing margin pressures [5] Loyalty Program Enhancements - The company intends to enhance its loyalty program by targeting inactive consumers to drive engagement and sales [6]

Core Viewpoint - Investor optimism is declining ahead of Starbucks Corporation's fourth-quarter earnings, with growing caution regarding 2026 expectations [1] Earnings Expectations - Consensus earnings per share (EPS) have decreased by 37% over the past 12 months, with ongoing revision risks [2] - The analyst projects fourth-quarter 2025 EPS at 55 cents, slightly below the consensus of 57 cents [3] Same-Store Sales Projections - North America same-store sales are expected to decline by 1.0%, compared to the Street's estimate of a 0.5% decline [3] - International same-store sales are projected to increase by 2.0%, aligning with Street estimates [4] 2026 Guidance and Operating Costs - There is uncertainty regarding whether Starbucks will provide 2026 guidance during the fourth-quarter call, with expectations for a more comprehensive update at an Investor Day in early 2026 [3] - The analyst has lowered the 2026 EPS estimate to $2.34, which is the second-lowest among 31 analysts, compared to a consensus of $2.59 [4] - Per-store operating expenses are anticipated to rise by approximately 7% in 2025, with mid-single-digit growth expected in 2026, including $500 million allocated for labor [5] Competitive Landscape and Traffic Concerns - The analyst notes that tougher competition and ongoing price-value concerns may impact traffic, which is projected to be healthier in 2026 but still below consensus expectations [5] - Street models underestimate 2026 store operating expenses by only 2.5%, with every 100 basis points of weekly operating expense growth reducing EPS by roughly 10 cents [5] Stock Performance - Starbucks shares were trading lower by 1.31% at $86.07 [6]

Core Viewpoint - TD Cowen has lowered its price target for McDonald's Corp. to $320 from $330 while maintaining a Hold rating due to weaker-than-expected third-quarter traffic trends in the U.S. market [1] Group 1: Sales Performance - The U.S. same-store sales forecast for the third quarter has been reduced to 2% from 3%, which is below the Consensus Metrix estimate of 2.6% [2] - Limited improvement in traffic was observed following the relaunch of Extra Value Meals on September 8, potentially offset by declining sales of snack wraps introduced in July [2] Group 2: Consumer Perception - Despite McDonald's renewed focus on value offerings, survey data indicates that low-income consumers' perception of the brand's value has weakened since July 2025, likely contributing to the softer-than-expected performance [3] Group 3: Valuation Metrics - A 23x forward P/E multiple has been applied to derive the new price target, down from 24x previously, aligning with the three-year average and one turn below the five-year average [4] - Analysts expect the stock to remain range-bound between $290 and $320 per share, or 21x–24x FY2 earnings, until U.S. traffic trends show more sustainable improvement [4]

Core Insights - NRSInsights reported a 5.8% year-over-year increase in same-store sales for September 2025, following an 8.3% increase in August 2025 [5][6][10] - The NRS retail network includes approximately 37,400 active terminals across 32,400 independent retailers, primarily serving urban consumers [2][16] - The total sales processed through NRS terminals in September 2025 reached $2.1 billion, representing a 17% year-over-year increase [16] Sales Performance - Same-store sales decreased by 2.5% compared to August 2025, while units sold increased by 2.5% year-over-year [6][10] - The average price of the top 500 items purchased rose by 2.9% year-over-year, slightly lower than the 3.0% increase recorded in August 2025 [6] - Baskets per store increased by 1.9% year-over-year but decreased by 1.1% compared to the previous month [6] Market Trends - Growth was driven by prepared cocktails, sparkling water, and coffee, indicating a shift in consumer preferences [11] - There was also a notable increase in sales of cold and flu remedies, reflecting seasonal demand [11] - The three-month rolling average increase of 5.8% is the highest since 2023, suggesting a positive trend in retail performance [10] Transaction Data - Same-store data comparisons for September 2025 were based on approximately 224 million transactions across 23,400 stores [13] - The three-month data comparisons were derived from around 662 million transactions processed through stores that scanned transactions in both periods [14] Company Overview - National Retail Solutions operates a leading POS terminal-based platform for independent retailers, facilitating transaction processing and business management [17] - The company serves a diverse, predominantly urban, multi-cultural shopper base, providing valuable transaction data for consumer packaged goods suppliers and advertisers [17]