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MRVL_将 CES 列为正面催化事件观察
2025-12-25 02:42
Summary of Marvell Technology Inc. Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Marvell Technology Inc. (MRVL.O) - **Market Cap**: US$71,317 million [2] Key Industry Insights 1. **AI Market Positioning** - Marvell is strategically positioned to benefit from the growing AI market, which is impacting various ecosystems including compute, optical, and networking. The company is engaged with major hyperscalers and is addressing their concerns about capacity and supplier flexibility, with discussions extending into 2027 and beyond [4][10]. 2. **Custom Sales Growth** - Custom sales are projected to grow to US$1.8 billion in CY26, representing a 20% year-over-year increase from approximately US$1.5 billion in the current year. This is expected to double to US$3.6 billion in CY27. The relationship with existing XPU customers is strengthening, particularly with the acquisition of Celestial AI, which is anticipated to enhance future growth [5]. 3. **Supply Chain Management** - Marvell is currently booked out through the next year and is effectively managing supply challenges in optical and advanced packaging. The company has secured HBM/CoWoS capacity with support from TSMC, its main foundry partner [6]. 4. **Networking Market Dynamics** - Marvell maintains a strong position in the DSP market through customized features and direct relationships with hyperscalers. The competition in the 1.6T market is expected to increase compared to the 800G market. Innovium's switching sales have shown significant growth, doubling to US$200 million last year and projected to reach US$500 million next year [7]. 5. **Celestial AI Acquisition** - The acquisition of Celestial AI is expected to open an US$18 billion total addressable market (TAM) for Marvell by 2030, with US$10 billion for optics and US$8 billion for switches. This acquisition is viewed as a significant opportunity, potentially more impactful than the Inphi acquisition in 2020 [8]. Financial Projections - **Target Price**: US$114.00, representing a potential upside of 35.6% from the current price of US$84.09 [2][11]. - **Expected Total Return**: 35.9%, including a dividend yield of 0.3% [2]. Risks and Considerations - **Downside Risks**: - Weakness in storage - Networking growth not materializing - Market share losses in storage and networking [12]. - **Upside Risks**: - Higher acquisition synergies - Faster share gains in storage and networking [12]. Conclusion - Marvell Technology Inc. is positioned for significant growth driven by the AI market and custom sales, with strategic acquisitions enhancing its market presence. The company is managing supply chain challenges effectively and is optimistic about its future in the networking space. Investors are encouraged to view current share price weakness as a potential buying opportunity [10].