Schaeffer's Volatility Scorecard
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Bear Signal Flashing for Struggling Insurance Stock
Schaeffers Investment Research· 2025-11-26 21:24
Core Viewpoint - Prudential Financial Inc (NASDAQ:PRU) is experiencing a decline, currently trading at $107.97, and is attempting to break a five-day winning streak while being down 8.8% year-to-date and trapped in a trading range between $110 and $100 [1] Group 1 - PRU is within 0.75 of the 260-day moving average's 20-day average true range (ATR), having remained below it 80% of the time in the past two weeks and within 2% of the trendline [2] - Historical data indicates that this signal has occurred six times in the past five years, with the stock being lower one week later 67% of the time, averaging a loss of 2.5%, which would place shares near $105 [2] Group 2 - Options for PRU appear affordable, with a Schaeffer's Volatility Index (SVI) of 22%, ranking in the 7th percentile of its annual range [3] - The Schaeffer's Volatility Scorecard (SVS) for PRU is 16 out of 100, indicating that the stock has consistently realized lower volatility than its options have priced in, making it a candidate for premium selling [3]
Signal: This Semiconductor Stock Has Room To Run
Forbes· 2025-06-13 15:05
Core Viewpoint - Broadcom (AVGO) has experienced significant stock movement, reaching a market cap of $1 trillion and a record high of $265.43, but faced a 5% drop following a revenue forecast that fell short of estimates. The stock has since rebounded and is showing historically bullish signals [1][2]. Stock Performance - The stock's recent peak coincides with historically low implied volatility (IV), which has previously indicated bullish trends for the equity. Currently, AVGO's Schaeffer's Volatility Index (SVI) is at 32%, placing it in the bottom percentile of its 12-month range [2]. - Historical data indicates that Broadcom stock has risen 75% of the time one month after trading within 2% of its 52-week high, averaging a 3% return during that period. A similar increase from the current level would position AVGO at approximately $264 [3]. Support Levels - The $250 level is identified as a potential support area, having previously served as a peak in December and January. Additionally, the ascending 20-day moving average may provide short-term support, as it has not been breached on a closing basis since April [4]. Options Activity - There has been a notable increase in the popularity of puts in the options market, with Broadcom's 50-day put/call volume ratio at 0.59, ranking higher than 91% of readings from the past year. This suggests a rising trend in put activity, despite calls still outnumbering puts [5]. - The Schaeffer's Volatility Scorecard (SVS) for AVGO is high at 84 out of 100, indicating that the stock has historically exceeded volatility expectations, which is favorable for options buyers [6].
Bullish Signal Has Never Failed This Bank Stock
Schaeffers Investment Research· 2025-03-10 16:35
Core Viewpoint - Charles Schwab Corp is experiencing a decline in stock value amid economic uncertainty and selling pressure in the financial sector, with traders looking for potential value opportunities [1] Stock Performance - Charles Schwab stock has erased its 11.8% gain from January and is currently down 4.1% year-to-date, marking its 11th loss in 13 sessions, last seen at $70.95 [2] - The stock is approaching its 260-day moving average, which is historically a bullish level [2] Historical Trends - The stock has tested its trendline five times in the past three years, with an average gain of 8.4% one month later, suggesting a potential rebound could bring the stock close to $77, near its 13-month high of $84.50 [3] Options Market Sentiment - The 50-day put/call volume ratio for Charles Schwab stock is 1.39, ranking in the 90th percentile of the past year, indicating a strong preference for puts [4] - An unwinding of this bearish sentiment could provide additional support for the stock [4] Volatility Expectations - Charles Schwab's Volatility Scorecard (SVS) is 91 out of 100, indicating that the stock tends to outperform volatility expectations, making it attractive for premium buyers [5]