But let's start with some and kick things off with Maryanne Bartell's chief investment strategist at Sanctuary Wealth. Maryanne, great to kick things off with you. >> It's great to be here.>> All the data points, they're great. Markets tend to rally. Best time of the year.I got to imagine for your clients at Sanctuary, it's nice. It's probably not the reason to invest, is it. >> Well, the way we've been looking at the market now for a couple of years is that we're in the digital era.And the digital era mean ...

Market Overview - The S&P 500 is on track for its sixth consecutive positive month, marking the longest streak since August 2021 [1] - The market is experiencing a cyclical phase within a secular bear market, with expectations for continued growth in the upcoming year [5][6] Company Insights - Brian Bellski has launched a new firm, Humilis Investment Strategies, aiming to provide similar portfolios and research as before [3][4] - The firm plans to adapt its portfolio strategies while remaining open to new investment themes [4] Earnings and Performance Expectations - The forecast for next year includes high single-digit earnings growth, with a 10-year Treasury yield expected between 3.5% and 4.5%, creating a favorable environment for stocks [8][10] - There is an expectation of stronger earnings growth driven primarily by financials, with a shift away from concentrated performance in large-cap stocks [10][12] Market Dynamics - A clear distinction is emerging between different sectors, particularly technology, financials, and consumer discretionary, indicating a broader market performance rather than reliance on mega-cap stocks [9][11] - The anticipated performance for the market aligns with historical trends, suggesting a return to traditional stock market performance over the last 80 years [12]

Core Insights - The S&P 500 has experienced significant growth since March 2009, achieving a 10-bagger with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 17% [3][4] - Current market valuations are high, with the S&P 500 trading at 23 times forward 12-month earnings, nearly double the 12 times seen at the market's lows [3][9] - Despite rising valuations, institutional investors remain under-positioned, indicating a pervasive caution in the market [7][9] Market Sentiment and Speculation - There are increasing signs of speculation, particularly in AI investments, with some deals reminiscent of the Tech Bubble [5][16] - Hedge funds have underperformed the S&P 500 significantly, averaging a 4.3% annual return in the 2010s compared to the S&P 500's 13.5% [4][9] - Institutional risk tolerance is muted, as evidenced by Goldman Sachs' sentiment indicator showing 30 consecutive negative readings [7][9] AI and Investment Opportunities - AI is viewed as transformative, attracting substantial capital, but building AI infrastructure is costly, raising the risk of subpar returns [16][29] - Nvidia is highlighted as a key player in the AI boom, with expectations of significant growth and demand for its products [31][32] - The market is characterized by a disconnect between high valuations and strong business fundamentals, particularly in the AI sector [32] Historical Context and Comparisons - The current market environment is compared to the late 1990s and the Nifty Fifty periods, both of which saw spectacular gains followed by market peaks [13][14] - Historical performance data shows that overly cautious investors have missed out on substantial gains, emphasizing the importance of balancing risk and opportunity [15][20] Investment Strategy - The company adopts a patient and opportunistic investment approach, focusing on avoiding permanent capital impairment rather than merely managing volatility [26][27] - There is a clear distinction between Type I errors (acting when one shouldn't) and Type II errors (failing to act when one should), with the latter often leading to greater long-term costs [17][15] - The strategy includes investing in companies like Nvidia while avoiding capital-intensive "neo-cloud" firms that may not justify their current valuations [33][34]

Core Viewpoint - Silver has broken above its long-standing resistance zone, signaling a potential new era for the metal as it transitions from accumulation to expansion [1][8][26] Technical Analysis - The breakout above $49 marks the completion of a 45-year cup-and-handle formation, indicating a structural turning point in the market [8][9] - The monthly RSI (14) is around 81, suggesting that silver still has room to climb before reaching historical overbought conditions [10] - A confirmed monthly close above $50 would activate a price target of approximately $80 per ounce, representing the first major waypoint in a potential long-term advance [13][27] Historical Context - Silver's price history resembles a long period of accumulation, beginning with a spike near $50 in 1980, followed by a prolonged decline and sideways movement [4][5][7] - The 14-year compression zone beneath the $49 ceiling allowed long-term investors to accumulate while the market was largely neglectful [7][8] Market Dynamics - The current macro backdrop, including rising debt levels and persistent inflation, is pushing investors toward hard assets like silver [23][25] - Silver remains one of the most underowned assets globally, despite its increasing importance in industrial applications and as a monetary hedge [23][24] Future Projections - If silver can sustain prices above $100, it would signify a full revaluation of the metal, potentially leading to a price target of $400 based on historical trends and technical projections [16][19][28] - The completion of the cup-and-handle pattern and the macroeconomic conditions suggest a multi-year re-rating for silver, reshaping its market value [25][29]

Group 1: AMD and OpenAI Partnership - AMD has secured a significant partnership with OpenAI, which includes OpenAI taking a 10% stake in AMD and committing to purchase 6 gigawatts of AMD's Instinct GPUs over several years [1][5][7] - This collaboration is seen as a major move for AMD to compete more effectively against Nvidia in the AI data center market [8][9] - OpenAI's investment in AMD comes at a time when Nvidia has also invested in OpenAI, indicating a competitive cycle among these tech giants [8][9] Group 2: Market Reactions and Economic Indicators - The announcement of the AMD and OpenAI deal has contributed to a positive market sentiment, with the Dow and S&P 500 expected to open at new all-time highs [3][4] - Bitcoin has reached a new high of over $125,000, while gold is also experiencing record-breaking prices, reflecting a broader trend of rising safe-haven assets amid economic uncertainty [3][20][21] - Analysts are predicting continued growth in the S&P 500, with Goldman Sachs expecting firms to beat earnings estimates as the earnings season approaches [5][17] Group 3: Corporate Developments - Fifth Third Bank Corp is acquiring Coma in an all-stock deal valued at $10.9 billion, which will create the ninth largest bank in the U.S. with $288 billion in assets [2][27] - Verizon has appointed Dan Schulman as its new CEO, replacing Hans Vestberg, as part of a leadership change aimed at revitalizing the company [28][30] Group 4: Global Economic Trends - The resignation of France's new prime minister has led to concerns about political stability in the Eurozone, impacting French stocks negatively [34][36] - Japan is poised to have its first female prime minister, which has resulted in a significant surge in Japanese stocks, indicating potential for increased fiscal stimulus [38][39] - Analysts are optimistic about Japan's market outlook, suggesting a long-term bull market could be emerging [42][56]

Group 1: Tariffs on Movies - President Trump announced a plan to impose 100% tariffs on all movies made outside the United States, claiming that the U.S. movie industry has been "stolen" by other countries [2] - This announcement follows a similar threat made in May, raising questions about the authority to implement such tariffs and the practicalities of enforcement [2] Group 2: Electronic Arts (EA) Going Private - Electronic Arts confirmed it is going private in a historic leveraged buyout valued at $55 billion, marking the largest deal of its kind [3][4] - The acquisition will be led by Silver Lake, Saudi Arabia's Public Investment Fund, and Affinity Partners, with a cash offer of $210 per share, representing a 25% premium over the unaffected share price [4] Group 3: Funding and Strategic Implications - The transaction will be funded with approximately $36 billion in cash from the private equity firms and an additional $20 billion from debt financing through J.P. Morgan [5] - Analysts suggest that the deal may focus more on building political capital rather than purely financial returns, indicating potential future benefits in energy infrastructure deals [5][6] Group 4: SEC Regulatory Changes - SEC Chairman Paul Atkins is fast-tracking a proposal to allow semi-annual corporate reporting instead of quarterly, aiming to reduce regulatory burdens and enhance market-driven disclosure practices [8] - This change is positioned as a way to better align reporting frequency with company-specific factors, potentially benefiting both companies and investors [8][9] Group 5: Market Outlook - BMO Capital Markets strategist Brian Belski raised the year-end S&P 500 target to 7,000, maintaining a bullish outlook on U.S. equities amid a long-term secular bull market [10] - Belski's EPS forecast for 2025 remains at $275, suggesting that potential Fed rate cuts could positively impact cyclical sectors [11]