U.S. President Donald Trump speaks during the 80th session of the United Nations General Assembly (UNGA) at the UN headquarters on Sept. 23, 2025 in New York City.Shale oil executives say President Donald Trump is hurting investment in the oil patch, and are giving a grim outlook for the future of the industry that turned the U.S. into the largest crude producer in the world.The executives' anonymous comments were published in a quarterly survey of oil and gas companies by the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas ...

Geopolitics and Sanctions - The report suggests that current sanctions under President Biden were designed to help Putin sell oil [1] - President Biden allegedly asked India to import Russian oil to prevent oil prices from staying at $127 per barrel after Russia's invasion of Ukraine [2] - The US attempted to limit Russia's revenue through a price cap mechanism, enabling Russian oil to flow to India and China to keep US gasoline prices low [3][4] - President Trump has threatened to sanction India if they continue importing Russian oil [4] - The best-case scenario involves a ceasefire between Putin and Zelensky, potentially leading to the removal of European sanctions on Russia [7][8] - Europe has heavy sanctions, and new European sanctions are coming on refined products from Russian crude [8] Oil Market Dynamics - Shale oil production is reportedly declining [5] - The market is skeptical about disruption risk and sanctions, and is priced for de-escalation [9] - If the meeting fails and sanctions are implemented, the president will need to calibrate them to coincide with a loosening in global oil fundamentals to avoid sending oil prices up [5] - If Russian barrels are lost and crude oil prices rise above $100 again, shale oil cannot simply pump more to compensate [4]

Shale oil producers added a single drill rig this week after 14 consecutive weeks of declines, staving off at least for now a pandemic-level downturn in US activity https://t.co/5kmubOI499 ...

#报告 北欧斯安银行：OPEC+最新的行动意味着美国页岩油必须逐步退场。None (@None):None ...

American refiners are relying on oil supplies from the country’s biggest shale basins more than ever as flows of denser varieties from places like Mexico ebb https://t.co/amiPQYDH7H ...

Oil Market Dynamics - The market had priced in a $15-20 per barrel premium due to Israel-Iran tensions, which is now being eliminated as the worst of the turmoil appears to be over [2] - Prior to the conflict, debates centered on tariffs potentially driving recession and leading to $50 oil price predictions [3] - Better-than-expected oil demand data and underperforming OPEC production quotas were observed [4] - Shale oil drilling had decreased, leading to questions about potential rollover [4] - Demand is hanging in at around 1 million barrels per day of growth [6] Factors Influencing Oil Prices - Transportation costs, particularly shipping, have surged due to Middle East risk premiums [5] - The potential for shale oil growth resumption if oil prices remain above $70 is a key variable [6] - Underlying oil fundamentals should be the primary focus, considering past disruptions' varied impacts [6][7] Geopolitical Considerations - The Israel-Iran conflict has not demonstrated Iran's strong military capabilities [8] - Most of Iran's oil sales go to China, making the closure of the Strait of Hormuz unlikely [8][9] - China's role is significant in preventing actions like closing the Strait of Hormuz [9]