Saudi Arabia, which has repeatedly scolded other members for over-production, raised its crude output far above its OPEC+ quota last month: Here's your Evening Briefing https://t.co/AkKpmBQGHn ...

AI播客：换个方式听新闻 下载mp3 音频由扣子空间生成 据知情人士透露，沙特正要求为OPEC提供独立石油产量分析的公司，下调该国6月产量数据。 知情人士称，"市场供应量"与"产量"的核心差异在于：前者剔除库存变动，更接近沙特6月937万桶/日 的OPEC+协议配额。 6月，以色列与伊朗的军事对峙曾引发霍尔木兹海峡关闭风险，导致航运量激增。霍尔木兹海峡是中东 石油出口关键通道。 此类要求并不常见，而调整后的数据将使沙特6月产量符合其一直敦促其他产油国遵守的OPEC+配额。 其中一人称，新指标可能使6月产量数据比原统计低约40万桶/日。 沙特能源部尚未对此事回应。 作为全球最大原油出口国，沙特的产量波动会直接影响油价。近几个月，在沙特主导OPEC+恢复供应 的背景下，其产量数据的重要性尤为突。该国一边推动增产，一边谴责超配额生产的成员国。 OPEC通过外部公司（包括咨询机构和媒体）提供的"二手数据"平均值评估成员国产量，并在备受交易 员关注的月度报告中公布。 2022年被OPEC从二手数据来源中移除的国际能源署（IEA）周五报告称，6月沙特产量激增70万桶/日， 至980万桶/日，超过其OPEC+配额。 多家要 ...

Saudi Arabia's massive boost in oil production last month earned it a place on the list of OPEC+ cheaters, writes @JLeeEnergy https://t.co/hphQKf4oLo ...

7月11日（周五），国际原油价格继续承压回落。美原油交投于每桶66.90美元附近，较前一交易日下跌 逾2%；布伦特原油期货收于68.64美元，跌幅2.21%；美国原油期货收于66.57美元，跌幅高达2.65%。市 场情绪明显趋向谨慎，主要因特朗普关税政策引发全球经济增长担忧，以及OPEC+产量政策进入关键 转折阶段。 原油市场正处于多空博弈的关键节点。一方面，特朗普的贸易政策引发宏观层面的需求忧虑；另一方 面，OPEC+增产预期正在实质性改变供应格局。在地缘政治趋缓、美元走强与政策路径未明的背景 下，油价短期内或仍面临下行风险，投资者需密切关注8月初关税措施落地情况以及OPEC+会议可能释 放的新信号。 DLSM外汇平台认为美国总统特朗普近期宣布的新一轮关税计划成为压倒市场情绪的关键变量。随着8 月1日多个贸易措施临近生效，投资者忧虑全球贸易活动和经济增长将受到抑制，从而影响石油需求前 景。美联储6月17-18日会议纪要亦释放偏谨慎信号，多位官员对关税引发的通胀压力表示担忧，仅有少 数官员支持近期降息，使市场对货币政策缓解经济压力的预期降温。 供给端方面，OPEC+动向也引发市场重新评估供需平衡前景。据悉，该 ...

请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 | 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑及价格区间 | | --- | --- | --- | | | | 供给压力逐渐上升，油价承压偏弱。从供需基本面看，OPEC+从 4 月份开 | | 原油 | 偏弱 | 始正式增产，计划增产量要显著高于需求增量，油价供给过剩压力逐渐上 | | | | 升，油价下行压力较大，重点关注供给端 OPEC 实际增产量与美国产量。 | | | | 策略：轻仓试空并购买看涨期权保护。SC【500-520】 | | | | 成本回落，供给充足，液化气走势偏弱。OPEC+加速增产，成本端油价承 | | LPG | 偏弱 | 压，沙特下调 CP 合同价，成本端利空；下游燃烧需求处于淡季，化工需 | | | | 求有所下降，PDH 开工率连降两周。策略：走势偏弱，可轻仓布局空单。 | | | | PG【4120-4220】 | | | | 供需双弱，现货跟随盘面涨价，华北基差为-129（环比-21）。近期装置检 修力度加强，新装置暂未释放，供给压力边际缓解，本周产量小幅下滑， | | L | 空头反弹 | 预计后市仍存下跌预期。关注后续库存去化力度。7-8 ...

国际能源署(IEA)称，沙特阿拉伯上个月的原油产量远高于其OPEC+配额，在以色列与伊朗开战之际， 沙特阿拉伯与其他产油国一道，急于将石油从波斯湾出口。IEA在其月度报告中称，沙特将原油日产量 提高约70万桶，达到每日980万桶，其中约70%的新增供应量用于出口。这是利雅得罕见地违反 OPEC+协议限制的行为，而利雅得曾多次斥责其他成员国生产过剩。 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report The report offers short - term trend forecasts for various commodities in the futures market, including precious metals, base metals, energy, and agricultural products. These forecasts are influenced by factors such as tariffs, supply - demand dynamics, and macro - economic policies [2][4]. 3. Summary by Commodity Precious Metals - **Gold**: Facing disturbances from tariff issues, with a trend strength of - 1, indicating a bearish outlook [2][5][9]. - **Silver**: In a high - level oscillation, with a trend strength of 1, suggesting a bullish outlook [2][5][9]. Base Metals - **Copper**: Inventory is continuously increasing, putting pressure on prices. The trend strength is 0, showing a neutral outlook [2][11][13]. - **Zinc**: Operating within a range, with a trend strength of 0, indicating a neutral outlook [2][14]. - **Lead**: Showing a mid - term upward trend, with a trend strength of 0, suggesting a neutral outlook [2][16][17]. - **Tin**: Prices are weakening, with a trend strength of 0, indicating a neutral outlook [2][19][23]. - **Aluminum**: The price center is moving up. Aluminum has a trend strength of 0, alumina has a trend strength of 1, and casting aluminum alloy follows the trend of electrolytic aluminum [2][24][26]. - **Nickel**: There is a game between macro and fundamental factors, resulting in an oscillating trend. The trend strength is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [2][27][33]. - **Stainless Steel**: There is a game between reality and macro - expectations, leading to an oscillating trend. The trend strength is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [2][28][33]. Energy and Chemicals - **Carbonate Lithium**: Inventory accumulation is accelerating, but the number of warehouse receipts is relatively small. The oscillating pattern may continue, with a trend strength of 0, indicating a neutral outlook [2][34][36]. - **Industrial Silicon**: Attention should be paid to the registration of warehouse receipts, with a trend strength of 0, indicating a neutral outlook [2][37][40]. - **Polysilicon**: Policy disturbances are amplifying market fluctuations, with a trend strength of 0, indicating a neutral outlook [2][38][40]. - **Iron Ore**: Expectations are fluctuating, resulting in wide - range oscillations, with a trend strength of 0, indicating a neutral outlook [2][41]. - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: Due to sector sentiment resonance, they are in a relatively strong oscillating trend, with a trend strength of 1, suggesting a bullish outlook [2][44][48]. - **Silicon Ferrosilicon and Manganese Silicide**: Cost expectations may rise, leading to a relatively strong oscillating trend, with a trend strength of 1, suggesting a bullish outlook [2][50][53]. - **Coke**: Oscillating with an upward bias, with a trend strength of 0, indicating a neutral outlook [2][55][58]. - **Coking Coal**: Affected by news, oscillating with an upward bias, with a trend strength of 1, suggesting a bullish outlook [2][56][58]. - **Steam Coal**: Daily consumption is recovering, and the market is stabilizing with oscillations, with a trend strength of 0, indicating a neutral outlook [2][60][63]. Agricultural Products - **Palm Oil**: Driven by macro - sentiment, but the fundamental upside is limited [2][62]. - **Soybean Oil**: There is insufficient speculation on US soybean weather, lacking upward drivers [2][62]. - **Soybean Meal**: Waiting for the USDA report, with a rebound and oscillation trend [2][64]. - **Soybean**: Spot prices are stable, and the market is oscillating [2][64]. - **Corn**: Undergoing oscillating adjustments [2][66]. - **Cotton**: The expectation of tight old - crop inventory continues to support futures prices [2][68]. - **Egg**: As the peak season approaches, attention should be paid to the expected difference [2][70]. - **Live Pig**: Spot sentiment is weakening, and there is a divergence between futures and spot prices [2][71]. - **Peanut**: There is support at the lower level [4].

南华原油市场日报 2025年7月10日 ——原油延续累库，成品油库存下降 杨歆悦（投资咨询证号：Z0022518） 南华研究院投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 【核心观点】 EIA最新数据显示原油延续第二周累库，同API数据反映的趋势相似，但美国汽柴油库存持续处于偏低水 平，且去库趋势进一步强化了市场对需求回暖的预期。在此背景下，成品油市场的良好表现及裂解价差的 支撑，将推动美国炼厂维持较高的开工积极性，预计原油加工需求将继续保持稳健态势。 当前原油市场多空因素交织，利多因素在于地缘政治风险抬升、季节性需求支撑，利空因素主要在于 OPEC+增产以及宏观情绪偏低迷。从驱动逻辑上看，OPEC+增产在短期未能传导到现货市场，对原油市场的 影响偏向中长期。需求端，当前处于北半球原油需求高峰期，季节性拐点通常在9月，盘面可能提前交易旺 季拐点，利多周期有限。宏观方面，美国关税大限延期意味着达成贸易协议的概率增加，有利于缓解对全 球经济局势的担忧，对原油市场更多是短期情绪性驱动。地缘风险仍是主要潜在利好，但6月后冲突对油价 刺激效应料将减弱。总的来说，当前多空因素交织下，短期油价有支撑，盘面对利多因素的更 ...

这一潜在的增产加速反映出OPEC+在今年政策方向的重大转变。该组织从4月开始逐步撤销220万桶/日 的最新减产措施，随后在5月、6月和7月将增产幅度提升至每月41.1万桶/日。OPEC+加速增产是其夺回 市场份额激进战略的一部分，但也加剧了全球原油供应过剩的风险，可能对油价造成进一步压力。 智通财经APP获悉，据知情人士透露，OPEC+正在讨论在下个月的增产之后暂停进一步的产量上调。 据悉，该组织成员国已经初步计划在9月份完成220万桶/日产量恢复的目标——届时将再增加55万桶/日 的供应。知情人士表示，在此之后，OPEC+很可能会等待一段时间，再决定是否进一步解除另一部分 产量限制——这部分产量约为166万桶/日。 7月5日，以沙特为首的OPEC+八个主要成员国在线上会议同意8月增产54.8万桶/日，超出市场预期。这 一增幅超出了市场普遍预期的41.1万桶/日。OPEC+代表表示，OPEC+将考虑在下次会议上再增产54.8 万桶/日。据媒体援引相关官员称，沙特尤其渴望尽快重启更多闲置产能。若下月的增产计划得以实 施，OPEC+将有望通过在9月再次实施类似幅度的增产，完成恢复此前停产的220万桶/日产量的目标 ...

Look, it is the first meeting of minds since, well, first the Iran Israel war, but then also that Opec+ decision over the weekend to bring back extra barrels to the market. And the feeling is that opec+ have changed their strategy over the last couple of months. Why do you think that is the case. Why do you think they decided to accelerate the pullback.All right. Great to be with you, Jomana. You know, I don't think they've changed their strategy. I think they've doubled down on their strategy.It's clear go ...