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芯原股份(688521):国产算力卖铲人,受益 ASIC 定制趋势(国产 ASIC 系列研究之 2)
Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with a "Buy" rating for the company [7][6]. Core Insights - The company is positioned as a leading provider of customized chip services and semiconductor IP licensing in China, benefiting from the increasing demand for chip design, customization, and mass production services from various chip companies and terminal manufacturers [7][6]. - The company is expected to achieve revenues of 2.753 billion yuan, 6.104 billion yuan, and 8.525 billion yuan from 2025 to 2027, with corresponding PS ratios of 33 and 15 for 2025 and 2026, respectively, which are below the average values of comparable companies [7][6]. Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Total revenue (million yuan) for 2024 is projected at 2,322, with a year-on-year growth rate of -0.7%. For 2025H1, revenue is expected to be 974 million yuan, with a growth rate of 4.5%. The estimated revenue for 2025 is 2,753 million yuan, reflecting an 18.6% growth rate. By 2026 and 2027, revenues are forecasted to reach 6,104 million yuan and 8,525 million yuan, with growth rates of 121.7% and 39.7%, respectively [2]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company is projected to be -601 million yuan in 2024, -320 million yuan in 2025H1, and -439 million yuan in 2025, with a gradual improvement to -158 million yuan in 2026 and a positive net profit of 347 million yuan in 2027 [2]. - Earnings per share (EPS) are expected to be -1.20 yuan in 2024, -0.64 yuan in 2025H1, -0.84 yuan in 2025, -0.30 yuan in 2026, and 0.66 yuan in 2027 [2]. Market Data - As of September 19, 2025, the closing price of the stock is 173.00 yuan, with a one-year high of 200.00 yuan and a low of 24.72 yuan. The price-to-book ratio is 25.2, and the circulating A-share market value is 86.648 billion yuan [3]. Business Model and Market Position - The company operates under a SiPaaS (Silicon Platform as a Service) model, providing a neutral position in the semiconductor industry by not designing end products but offering IP products and design + mass production management services to clients [15][21]. - The company has a comprehensive product matrix, including six major categories of processor IP, over 1,600 mixed-signal IPs, and various IoT connection IPs, covering a wide range of applications from consumer electronics to automotive electronics [19][20]. Growth Drivers - The company is expected to benefit significantly from the increasing demand for ASIC customization and AI integration in domestic internet companies, with a projected order growth of approximately 30 billion yuan by the end of Q2 2025 [8][45]. - The one-stop chip customization business is anticipated to account for nearly 90% of the current orders, with a significant portion expected to convert into mass production orders [8][45]. Competitive Landscape - The semiconductor IP market is highly concentrated, with the top four companies holding a 75% market share. The company is positioned as the largest domestic and eighth-largest global design IP provider, indicating a strong competitive position [7][19].