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PMI(PM) - 2025 FY - Earnings Call Transcript
2025-09-02 16:17
Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company reaffirmed its guidance for a 13% to 15% growth in EPS for the closing year [1] - The company reported its strongest growth since 2011, excluding the post-pandemic recovery [2] - There is an expectation of margin expansions this year, with previous hiccups in margins now behind [12] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Strong growth in IQOS and ZYN volumes, with ZYN already in 47 markets and expanding [5] - The company is experiencing positive volume growth in the tobacco and nicotine industry for five consecutive years [3] - The smoke-free product mix is contributing positively to both top-line revenue and gross margins [4][11] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The U.S. market is seeing intensified competition, particularly for ZYN, which has a price premium of over 65% compared to competitors [9][19] - The company is normalizing inventory levels after a period of stock limitations due to undercapacity [7] - The company is observing a strong pricing environment for combustible cigarettes, supported by a favorable tax environment [3] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on smoke-free transformation and sees significant growth potential in this category [2][26] - There is a strategic emphasis on multi-category presence, including heat-not-burn, e-vape, and oral nicotine pouches [36] - The company is committed to continuous product innovation to meet evolving consumer expectations [64] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the smoke-free product category's growth potential, despite regulatory challenges in some markets [14][42] - The company anticipates that the competitive landscape will remain challenging but believes ZYN has a strong brand position [33] - Management noted that the currency environment is favorable, which supports the company's financial trajectory [57] Other Important Information - The EU is recognizing nicotine pouches for tax purposes, which is seen as a positive development for the company [44] - The company is awaiting regulatory approvals for IQOS in the U.S., with expectations leaning towards a 2026 launch [48] Q&A Session Summary Question: How should one think about ZYN shipment numbers for 2H '25? - Management suggested that shipment numbers should be based on sell-through growth rates applied to previous shipment figures [15][16] Question: What is the pricing strategy for ZYN given the competitive landscape? - Management acknowledged the high price premium of ZYN and indicated that marketing efforts would be ramped up to maintain market presence [20][21] Question: What is the outlook for IQOS growth in light of the flavor ban in Europe? - Management indicated that the flavor ban is being adjusted, and IQOS is expected to return to its growth trajectory [39] Question: How does the company view potential M&A opportunities? - Management stated that the company is currently self-sufficient and does not see immediate gaps in its product portfolio that would necessitate M&A [59][60] Question: What is the expected impact of the EU Tobacco Excise Directive? - Management noted that while the directive is being discussed, it is not expected to create major disruptions for the company's smoke-free product support [43][46]