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PMI(PM) - 2025 Q3 - Earnings Call Transcript
2025-10-21 14:00
Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company reported a record adjusted diluted EPS of $2.24, reflecting a 17% growth year-over-year [3][7] - Adjusted operating income grew by 12.4% in dollar terms to $4.7 billion, with an adjusted operating income margin of over 43%, the highest in almost four years [3][6] - Organic net revenue growth was 7.5%, or approximately 9% excluding the Indonesia technical impact, driven by strong smoke-free performance and robust pricing [7][9] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The global smoke-free business achieved over $3 billion in quarterly gross profit for the first time, with smoke-free volume growth of 16.6% in Q3 [3][8] - IQOS saw a 9% growth in HTU adjusted in-market sales, while ZYN can shipments grew by 36% globally [4][15] - Combustibles delivered a good Q3 with better-than-expected volumes in Turkey and Egypt, despite a 3.2% decline in cigarette volumes [5][10] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company’s smoke-free products are now commercialized in 100 markets, with a significant presence in Europe, Japan, and the U.S. [4][14] - In the U.S., ZYN captured the majority of Q3 category growth in both volume and value terms, with a 39% off-take growth [19][20] - International can volumes increased by 27%, with over 100% growth excluding Nordic countries [5][16] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on geographic expansion and deploying a multi-category strategy to enhance growth, with all smoke-free brands now commercialized together in 25 markets [4][14] - Continued investment in marketing and brand equity for ZYN and IQOS is planned, with a target of $2 billion in cost savings over 2024-2026 [13][24] - The company anticipates maintaining a premium positioning for ZYN while expanding its market share in the nicotine pouch category [22][24] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in achieving double-digit adjusted operating income and EPS growth in currency-neutral terms for the year [6][29] - The company expects a slower quarter in Q4 due to inventory adjustments and a higher tax rate, but maintains a positive outlook for continued growth in smoke-free products [30][54] - The anticipated adjusted effective tax rate for the year is around 22%, with expectations of strong performance from the smoke-free business [30][31] Other Important Information - The company raised its dividend for the 18th consecutive year to $5.88 per share, reflecting strong year-to-date performance and confidence in future growth [34] - The company is on track to exceed its 2024-2026 CAGR targets, indicating a strong growth profile within consumer packaged goods [32][33] Q&A Session Summary Question: Clarification on ZYN's growth and October performance - Management confirmed ZYN's leadership in the nicotine pouch market with over 60% market share and noted that the category has been growing between 30% and 40% [36][37] - The special promotion in Q3 was aimed at creating awareness and capturing market share, with a normalization of promotional activity expected moving forward [38][39] Question: Investment levels and margin structure for ZYN - The $100 million investment in Q3 was a one-off related to the special promotion, and management expects ZYN to maintain best-in-class margins despite increased promotional activity [48][50] - Future investments will continue to support both ZYN and IQOS, with a focus on building commercial presence and marketing capabilities in the U.S. [56][58] Question: Drivers behind full-year dollar EPS growth guidance raise - Management indicated that the EPS growth is driven by strong operating income growth, improved tax rates, and favorable interest costs [59][60] - The company remains optimistic about achieving strong growth in Q4, despite some technical impacts on inventory and pricing [53][54]
Can ZYN and IQOS Sustain Philip Morris' Smoke-Free Surge?
ZACKS· 2025-07-31 16:21
Core Insights - Philip Morris International's smoke-free business is expanding significantly, with IQOS and ZYN being pivotal to this growth. In Q2 2025, smoke-free business contributed 41% of total net revenues and over 42% of total gross profit, indicating a strong shift from combustible products [1][8]. Smoke-Free Business Performance - Smoke-free business net revenues increased by 15.2% year-over-year (14.5% organically), while gross profit rose by 23.3% (21.5% organically), outpacing the growth of combustible products [1]. - IQOS, the heat-not-burn device, experienced an 11.4% increase in global sales in Q2, with a market share of 31.7% in Japan and a rise of 1.2 points to 10.9% in Europe [2][8]. - ZYN, the leading nicotine pouch, saw a 36% growth in June and 26% in Q2 in the U.S., with global shipments increasing by 43% year-over-year, driven by strong U.S. demand and international expansion [3][8]. Competitive Landscape - Altria Group's on! nicotine pouch brand reported a 26.5% increase in shipments to 52.1 million cans in Q2 2025, capturing an 8.7% retail share of the U.S. oral tobacco market [5]. - Turning Point Brands' modern oral nicotine pouch sales surged nearly tenfold year-over-year, generating $22.3 million in revenues, with a revised full-year sales guidance of $80–$95 million [6]. Valuation and Earnings Estimates - Philip Morris shares have declined by 8.6% in the past month, compared to a 1.7% decline in the industry [7]. - The company trades at a forward price-to-earnings ratio of 20.26X, higher than the industry's average of 14.56X [10]. - Zacks Consensus Estimates indicate year-over-year earnings growth of 14% for 2025 and 12% for 2026 [11].