Core Insights - Altria Group, Inc. and Philip Morris International Inc. are major players in the global tobacco industry, each with unique geographic exposure and strategic focuses [1][2] - Altria has a market capitalization of approximately $98.5 billion, primarily focused on the U.S. market, while Philip Morris has a larger market cap of about $248.6 billion, reflecting its international presence and innovation in reduced-risk products [1][2] Altria's Position - Altria maintains a strong position in the U.S. tobacco market, with a 64.4% adjusted operating companies income margin in Q3 2025, indicating strong pricing power despite declining cigarette volumes [3][6] - The company is investing in smoke-free products, with on! nicotine pouch shipments reaching 133.6 million cans year-to-date, and continues to innovate with products like on! PLUS and Horizon's Ploom [4][8] - Altria increased its quarterly dividend by 3.9% to $1.06 per share in August 2025, marking its 60th dividend increase in 56 years, and expanded its share-repurchase authorization to $2 billion through 2026 [5] - Domestic cigarette shipment volumes declined by 8.2% in Q3, and Marlboro's market share decreased by 1.2 percentage points to 40.4%, highlighting ongoing challenges [6] Philip Morris' Growth - Philip Morris is increasingly focused on smoke-free products, which accounted for 41% of total net revenues and 42% of gross profit in Q3 2025, with shipments growing by 16.6% year-over-year [7][9] - Key smoke-free brands like IQOS, ZYN, and VEEV are driving revenue growth, with IQOS leading in heated tobacco globally [9] - Operational discipline and cost controls have supported margin expansion and earnings growth, while the combustible segment remains under pressure with a 3.2% decline in cigarette shipment volumes [10][11] Earnings Estimates - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Altria's EPS indicates a year-over-year increase of approximately 6.3% for 2025 and 2.3% for 2026, remaining unchanged at $5.44 and $5.56 respectively [12] - For Philip Morris, the consensus estimate implies year-over-year growth of 14.2% for 2025 and 11.3% for 2026, with estimates slightly down to $7.50 and $8.35 [14] Stock Performance and Valuation - Over the past year, Altria's shares have increased by 17.4%, while Philip Morris has seen a stronger gain of 33.9% [15] - Altria's forward P/E ratio is 10.54, below its one-year median of 10.80, while Philip Morris' forward P/E ratio stands at 19.17, also below its median of 20.59 [16] Investment Appeal - Philip Morris offers stronger global growth and leadership in reduced-risk products, while Altria provides a compelling value proposition with higher income visibility and resilient margins [17] - Altria is viewed as a better option for income-focused investors seeking stability and consistent returns amid the industry's transition to smoke-free products [17]

Core Insights - Altria Group, Inc. is observing significant growth in the e-vapor category, with U.S. adult usage projected to reach approximately 21 million consumers by the end of Q3 2025, primarily driven by disposable products [1][9] E-Vapor Market Dynamics - The recent growth in the e-vapor market is largely attributed to disposable e-vapor products, which have added around 2.4 million users and now represent over 60% of the category. These products are typically flavored, low-priced, and widely available, although many lack FDA authorization [2][9] - Altria's e-vapor business, centered around the NJOY brand, focuses on FDA-authorized products, which limits its participation in the segment that is driving most of the new user adoption [2] Regulatory Environment - Altria has advocated for stronger enforcement against unauthorized e-vapor products. Federal agencies have recently intensified actions against illicit e-vapor, including coordinated raids and large-scale seizures, indicating increased regulatory scrutiny in the category [3][9] Financial Performance and Valuation - Altria recorded a non-cash goodwill impairment charge of $873 million in its e-vapor business during the first nine months of 2025, reflecting the challenges faced in this segment [4] - The company's shares have increased by 1% over the past month, compared to the industry's growth of 1.6% [8] - Altria's forward price-to-earnings ratio stands at 10.57X, which is lower than the industry average of 14.19X [10] Earnings Estimates - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Altria's 2025 earnings per share has increased by 1 cent to $5.44, while the estimate for 2026 has decreased by 1 cent to $5.56 [11]

Core Insights - Altria Group, Inc. and Philip Morris International Inc. are key players in the global tobacco industry, each with distinct strategies and strong brand portfolios [1][2] - The tobacco industry is transforming due to declining cigarette use, regulatory pressures, and consumer interest in smoke-free technologies, prompting both companies to innovate and restructure [2] Altria Group, Inc. (MO) - Altria holds a dominant position in the U.S. tobacco market with a 45.4% cigarette retail share and Marlboro's 59.6% share in the premium segment as of Q3 2025 [3] - The smokeable segment achieved a 64.4% adjusted operating companies income margin, indicating strong pricing power despite volume pressures [3] - Altria's strategy includes enhancing profitability while expanding into oral nicotine, heated tobacco, and e-vapor platforms, with on! shipments reaching 133.6 million cans year-to-date [4] - The company raised its quarterly dividend by 3.9% to $1.06 per share, marking its 60th increase in 56 years, and expanded its share repurchase program to $2 billion through 2026 [5] - Domestic cigarette shipment volumes fell 8.2% in the quarter, and Marlboro's total-category share declined to 40.4%, highlighting ongoing challenges [6] Philip Morris International Inc. (PM) - Philip Morris is focused on smoke-free products, which accounted for 41% of total net revenues and 42% of gross profit in Q3 2025, with smoke-free gross profit reaching a record $3.1 billion [7][8] - Shipments of IQOS increased by 15.5% to 40.8 billion units, maintaining a 76% global share of heated tobacco units [8] - Adjusted operating income rose 12.4% to $4.7 billion, with margins expanding to 43.1%, and adjusted EPS increased 17.3% to $2.24 [10] - Despite a 3.2% decline in cigarette shipment volumes, pricing strength lifted net revenues by 4.3% [11] Earnings Estimates - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Altria's 2025 EPS indicates a year-over-year increase of around 6.3%, with the 2025 EPS estimate at $5.44 [12] - For Philip Morris, the 2025 EPS estimate implies a year-over-year growth of 14.3%, with the estimate at $7.51 [14] Stock Performance - Over the past year, Altria's shares gained 9.3%, while Philip Morris's shares advanced by 22.7% [16] - Altria trades at a forward P/E ratio of 10.57, while Philip Morris's forward P/E ratio stands at 18.9 [18] Investment Outlook - Philip Morris is viewed as the stronger growth story due to its shift towards smoke-free products and disciplined cost strategy, while Altria offers stability and consistent cash flows [20]

Core Insights - Altria Group, Inc. and Philip Morris International Inc. are navigating a transforming tobacco market with distinct strategies, focusing on smoke-free alternatives and maintaining strong brand presence [1][2] Altria Group, Inc. - Altria's pricing power is a key factor in its financial resilience, with a 10% net price realization in smokeable products leading to a 4.2% increase in adjusted operating companies income (OCI) in Q2 2025 [6] - The oral tobacco segment, particularly the on! nicotine pouch brand, saw shipments rise 26.5% year over year, contributing to a 10.9% increase in adjusted OCI [7] - Adjusted earnings per share (EPS) increased 8.3% year over year to $1.44 in Q2 2025, with revenues net of excise taxes at $5.29 billion [8] - Marlboro maintains a 59.5% share in the premium category, showcasing Altria's strong market position and ability to adapt to a smoke-free future [10] Philip Morris International Inc. - Philip Morris's growth is driven by smoke-free products, which accounted for 41% of total net revenues and 42% of gross profit in Q3 2025 [11] - Shipments of IQOS, ZYN, and VEEV showed significant growth, with IQOS shipments up 15.5% to 41 billion units, maintaining a 76% global share in heated tobacco [12] - Adjusted operating income rose 12.4% to $4.7 billion, with adjusted EPS increasing 17.3% to $2.24, supported by strong performance in smoke-free products [13] - Despite a 3.2% decline in cigarette shipment volumes, Philip Morris managed a 4.3% increase in net revenues through pricing strategies [14] Market Performance - Altria's stock has gained 25.3% over the past year, outperforming Philip Morris's 13.1% increase and the broader S&P 500's 20.6% rise [21] - Altria is trading at a forward P/E ratio of 11.41, while Philip Morris's forward P/E ratio stands at 18.24 [20] Investment Outlook - Altria is positioned as a better investment for income-focused investors due to its attractive valuation, robust pricing power, and growing smoke-free momentum, while Philip Morris offers stronger global growth potential [22]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company reported a record adjusted diluted EPS of $2.24, reflecting a 17% growth year-over-year [3][8] - Adjusted operating income grew by 7.5% organically and 12.4% in dollar terms to $4.7 billion, with a margin expansion of 120 basis points [7][11] - Organic net revenue growth was 7.5%, or approximately 9% excluding the Indonesia technical impact, driven by strong smoke-free performance [8][10] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The global smoke-free business achieved over $3 billion in quarterly gross profit for the first time, with a 16.6% volume growth in smoke-free products [3][4] - IQOS saw a 9% growth in HTU adjusted in-market sales and a 15.5% growth in ET tobacco unit shipments [4][9] - ZYN can shipments grew by 36% globally, with a 39% off-take growth in the U.S. [16][22] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The smoke-free product portfolio outpaced the industry with over 12% estimated IMS volume growth year-to-date compared to less than 10% for the industry [14][15] - In Europe, markets like Italy, Greece, and Spain showed excellent growth across all smoke-free categories [18][20] - The U.S. nicotine pouch category has been growing at more than 40% over the last 18 months, with ZYN capturing a significant market share [25][27] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on geographic expansion, with smoke-free products now available in 100 markets, and is investing in multi-category strategies [4][14] - Continued investment in marketing and brand equity for ZYN and IQOS is planned, with expectations for sustained growth in the U.S. market [14][63] - The company aims to maintain a premium positioning for ZYN while expanding its market presence [24][27] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in achieving double-digit adjusted operating income and EPS growth for the year, despite anticipated challenges in Q4 [30][32] - The company expects a normalization in promotional activities for ZYN, which may impact short-term performance but is seen as necessary for long-term growth [41][42] - Management highlighted the resilience of the combustible business and the ongoing strong performance of smoke-free products [35][30] Other Important Information - The company raised its dividend for the 18th consecutive year to $5.88 per share, reflecting strong year-to-date performance [36] - A planned $2 billion cost-saving objective over 2024-2026 is on track, with ongoing cost efficiency measures [14][34] Q&A Session Summary Question: Clarification on ZYN's growth and October performance - Management confirmed ZYN's market leadership with over 60% share and noted that promotional activities are returning to normal levels, which may impact short-term growth [39][41] Question: Insights on IQOS shipments versus IMS - Management acknowledged a discrepancy between HTU shipment growth and IMS growth, expecting alignment in Q4 while maintaining strong performance in the long term [45] Question: Investment levels and future expectations for ZYN - Management clarified that the $100 million investment in Q3 was a one-off related to promotional activities, with expectations for ZYN to maintain best-in-class margins moving forward [51][52]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company reported a record adjusted diluted EPS of $2.24, reflecting a growth of +17% year-over-year [3][8] - Adjusted operating income grew by +7.5% organically and +12.4% in dollar terms to $4.7 billion, with an adjusted operating income margin of over 43% [7][8] - Organic net revenue growth was +7.5%, or around +9% excluding the Indonesia technical impact, driven by strong smoke-free performance and robust pricing [8][10] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The global smoke-free business achieved over $3 billion in quarterly gross profit for the first time, with smoke-free net revenues growing organically by +13.9% [3][10] - IQOS saw a +9% adjusted in-market sales growth and +15.5% growth in tobacco unit shipments, reflecting strong momentum in Europe, Japan, and global markets [4][9] - ZYN can shipments grew by +36% globally, with a notable +39% off-take growth in the U.S. [16][20] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company’s smoke-free products are now commercialized in 100 markets, with a significant presence in the U.S., Europe, and Japan [4][15] - The overall smoke-free category is estimated to have grown by over +12% year-to-date, compared to less than 10% for the industry [14][15] - In Japan, IQOS continues to grow robustly, with Q3 adjusted IMS growth of +6% [19] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on geographic expansion and deploying a multi-category strategy to enhance growth, with all smoke-free brands now commercialized together in 25 markets [4][14] - Continued investment in marketing and brand equity for ZYN and IQOS is planned, with expectations for sustained growth in the nicotine pouch category [14][25] - The company aims to maintain a premium positioning for ZYN while expanding its market share in the nicotine pouch category [23][25] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in achieving another year of double-digit adjusted operating income and EPS growth, despite anticipated challenges in Q4 [28][30] - The company expects a slower quarter in Q4 due to inventory adjustments and a higher tax rate, but maintains a positive long-term growth outlook [31][32] - Management highlighted the resilience of the combustible business and the strong performance of the smoke-free portfolio as key drivers for future growth [34] Other Important Information - The company raised its dividend by +8.9% to $5.88 per share, marking the 18th consecutive year of dividend increases [35] - A planned $2 billion cost-saving objective over 2024-2026 is on track, supported by ongoing cost efficiency measures [14][33] Q&A Session Summary Question: Clarification on ZYN's growth and October performance - Management confirmed ZYN's leadership in the nicotine pouch market and noted that promotional activities are returning to normal levels, which may impact growth rates [38][41] Question: Insights on IQOS shipments versus IMS - Management acknowledged a discrepancy between HTU shipments and IMS growth, expecting alignment in Q4 while maintaining a positive outlook for IQOS performance [45] Question: Future investment levels in the U.S. market - Management clarified that the recent $100 million investment was a one-off related to promotional activities, with ongoing investments planned for ZYN and IQOS [51][60] Question: Impact of promotional strategies on new consumer acquisition - Management indicated that the recent free can promotion successfully attracted new consumers, although specific metrics on new customer acquisition were not disclosed [66][68]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company reported a record adjusted diluted EPS of $2.24, reflecting a 17% growth year-over-year [3][7] - Adjusted operating income grew by 12.4% in dollar terms to $4.7 billion, with an adjusted operating income margin of over 43%, the highest in almost four years [3][6] - Organic net revenue growth was 7.5%, or approximately 9% excluding the Indonesia technical impact, driven by strong smoke-free performance and robust pricing [7][9] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The global smoke-free business achieved over $3 billion in quarterly gross profit for the first time, with smoke-free volume growth of 16.6% in Q3 [3][8] - IQOS saw a 9% growth in HTU adjusted in-market sales, while ZYN can shipments grew by 36% globally [4][15] - Combustibles delivered a good Q3 with better-than-expected volumes in Turkey and Egypt, despite a 3.2% decline in cigarette volumes [5][10] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company’s smoke-free products are now commercialized in 100 markets, with a significant presence in Europe, Japan, and the U.S. [4][14] - In the U.S., ZYN captured the majority of Q3 category growth in both volume and value terms, with a 39% off-take growth [19][20] - International can volumes increased by 27%, with over 100% growth excluding Nordic countries [5][16] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on geographic expansion and deploying a multi-category strategy to enhance growth, with all smoke-free brands now commercialized together in 25 markets [4][14] - Continued investment in marketing and brand equity for ZYN and IQOS is planned, with a target of $2 billion in cost savings over 2024-2026 [13][24] - The company anticipates maintaining a premium positioning for ZYN while expanding its market share in the nicotine pouch category [22][24] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in achieving double-digit adjusted operating income and EPS growth in currency-neutral terms for the year [6][29] - The company expects a slower quarter in Q4 due to inventory adjustments and a higher tax rate, but maintains a positive outlook for continued growth in smoke-free products [30][54] - The anticipated adjusted effective tax rate for the year is around 22%, with expectations of strong performance from the smoke-free business [30][31] Other Important Information - The company raised its dividend for the 18th consecutive year to $5.88 per share, reflecting strong year-to-date performance and confidence in future growth [34] - The company is on track to exceed its 2024-2026 CAGR targets, indicating a strong growth profile within consumer packaged goods [32][33] Q&A Session Summary Question: Clarification on ZYN's growth and October performance - Management confirmed ZYN's leadership in the nicotine pouch market with over 60% market share and noted that the category has been growing between 30% and 40% [36][37] - The special promotion in Q3 was aimed at creating awareness and capturing market share, with a normalization of promotional activity expected moving forward [38][39] Question: Investment levels and margin structure for ZYN - The $100 million investment in Q3 was a one-off related to the special promotion, and management expects ZYN to maintain best-in-class margins despite increased promotional activity [48][50] - Future investments will continue to support both ZYN and IQOS, with a focus on building commercial presence and marketing capabilities in the U.S. [56][58] Question: Drivers behind full-year dollar EPS growth guidance raise - Management indicated that the EPS growth is driven by strong operating income growth, improved tax rates, and favorable interest costs [59][60] - The company remains optimistic about achieving strong growth in Q4, despite some technical impacts on inventory and pricing [53][54]

Financial Performance - Q3 2025 adjusted diluted EPS reached $2.24[12], while YTD adjusted diluted EPS reached $5.83[14] - Q3 2025 net revenues totaled $10.8 billion[12], and YTD net revenues reached $30.3 billion[14] - The company is raising its adjusted diluted EPS forecast to $7.46-$7.56, including a $0.10 favorable currency impact[75] - The company is raising its operating cash flow forecast to over $11.5 billion[75] Smoke-Free Products (SFP) Growth - SFP expansion continues, now in 100 markets[5] - Q3 2025 total shipment volume was 204.9 billion units, with smoke-free products accounting for 46.9 billion units, a 16.6% increase vs PY[20] - YTD September 2025 total shipment volume was 592.7 billion units, with smoke-free products accounting for 134.8 billion units, a 14.3% increase vs PY[20] - VEEV volumes increased by 91% vs PY in Q3 2025[45] Regional Performance - Europe Q3 2025 IQOS, ZYN & VEEV shipment growth was +13%[48] - In Japan, PMI HTU adjusted share of market in Q3 2025 was 31.7%, a +1.8 percentage point increase vs PY[50] - In the U S, ZYN Nielsen retail value share reached 66.8% in Q3 2025[54] ZYN Performance - Global ZYN markets increased by 36% vs PY[43] - U S ZYN volumes increased by 37% vs PY[43] - International Nicotine Pouch Volumes increased by 27% vs PY[43]

Core Insights - Philip Morris International Inc. (PM) is expected to report growth in both revenue and earnings for the third quarter of 2025, with revenue estimated at $10.7 billion, reflecting an 8% increase year-over-year [1][10] - The earnings consensus has slightly decreased to $2.10 per share, indicating a nearly 10% rise compared to the previous year's quarter [2][10] Revenue and Earnings Expectations - The revenue estimate of $10.7 billion represents an 8% increase from the prior-year quarter [1] - The earnings per share (EPS) estimate of $2.10 suggests a growth of almost 10% from the same quarter last year [2] Key Growth Drivers - Continued momentum in PM's smoke-free product portfolio, particularly with IQOS, ZYN, and VEEV, is expected to drive growth [3][10] - Management anticipates double-digit volume growth in smoke-free products for the second half of 2025, supported by a multicategory strategy aimed at converting users from combustible products [3] Operational Efficiency and Cost Management - PM is on track to achieve $2 billion in gross cost savings through its 2024-2026 program, focusing on manufacturing productivity and overhead optimization [4] - Despite investments in marketing and brand equity potentially impacting profitability, operational efficiency and pricing initiatives are expected to protect profit margins [4][10] Earnings Prediction Model - The current model does not predict a definitive earnings beat for PM, as it holds a Zacks Rank of 3 and an Earnings ESP of -0.66% [5]

Core Insights - Altria Group, Inc. is focusing on a smoke-free future, with its on! nicotine pouches driving significant growth in the oral tobacco products segment, achieving a retail share of 8.7% in the U.S. [1][8] - The company reported a 26.5% increase in shipment volume, reaching 52.1 million cans in the second quarter of 2025, contributing to substantial profit growth [2][8] - Altria's strategy, executed through its subsidiary Helix, emphasizes aggressive brand-building and emotional connections with adult consumers to maintain momentum in a competitive market [3][4] Market Position and Competition - Philip Morris International Inc. is also advancing in the smoke-free product space, with these products accounting for 41% of total net revenues and over 42% of gross profit in the second quarter of 2025, showing 11.8% shipment growth [5] - Turning Point Brands, Inc. is emerging as a competitor, with its Modern Oral sales increasing nearly eightfold year-over-year to $30.1 million, representing 26% of total revenues [6] Financial Performance - Altria's shares have increased by 15.4% over the past three months, contrasting with a 4.3% decline in the industry [7] - The company trades at a forward price-to-earnings ratio of 12.05X, lower than the industry average of 14.27X [10] - Zacks Consensus Estimate indicates year-over-year earnings growth of 6.1% for 2025 and 2.6% for 2026 [11]