菲莫国际：提出三年规划，聚焦新烟成长 [Table_Industry] 轻工制造 [Table_ReportDate] 2026 年 02 月 08 日 证券研究报告 行业研究 [Table_ReportType] 行业事项点评 [Table_StockAndRank] 轻工制造 投资评级 看好 上次评级 看好 [Table_Author] 姜文镪 新消费行业首席分析师 执业编号：S1500524120004 邮箱：jiangwenqiang@cindasc.com 李晨 新消费行业分析师 执业编号：S1500525060001 邮箱：lichen1@cindasc.com 信达证券股份有限公司 CINDA SECURITIES CO.,LTD 北京市西城区宣武门西大街甲127号金隅大厦B 座 邮编：100031 [Table_Title] 菲莫国际：提出三年规划，聚焦新烟成长 [Table_ReportDate] 2026 年 02 月 08 日 本期内容提要: [Table_S [事件：菲莫国际发布 Table_Summary ummary] ] 2025 年报。25 年收入达 406.5 亿美元（同比+ ...

菲莫国际：提出三年规划，聚焦新烟成长 [Table_Industry] 轻工制造 [Table_ReportDate] 2026 年 02 月 08 日 证券研究报告 行业研究 [Table_ReportType] 行业事项点评 [Table_StockAndRank] 轻工制造 投资评级 看好 上次评级 看好 [Table_Author] 姜文镪 新消费行业首席分析师 执业编号：S1500524120004 邮箱：jiangwenqiang@cindasc.com 李晨 新消费行业分析师 执业编号：S1500525060001 邮箱：lichen1@cindasc.com 信达证券股份有限公司 CINDA SECURITIES CO.,LTD 北京市西城区宣武门西大街甲127号金隅大厦B 座 邮编：100031 [Table_Title] 菲莫国际：提出三年规划，聚焦新烟成长 [Table_ReportDate] 2026 年 02 月 08 日 HNB 全球份额维持高位，日本竞争加剧。公司全年 HNB 销量达 1551 亿 支（同比+11.0%），全球市占率约 76%（倒算全球行业规模 25 年超 200 ...

CFO Emmanuel Babeau said organic net revenue increased 6.5% in 2025, or 7.9% excluding what he described as a “technical Indonesia impact.” Organic operating income rose 10.6% with 140 basis points of organic margin expansion. In dollar terms, adjusted operating income grew 11.8% to $16.4 billion, and adjusted diluted EPS rose 14.2% at constant currency and 15% in dollar terms to $7.54. Babeau noted EPS landed at the high end of the company’s prior guidance range despite a lower-than-expected currency tailw ...

Philip Morris International (NYSE:PM) Q4 2025 Earnings call February 06, 2026 09:00 AM ET Company ParticipantsEmmanuel Babeau - CFOEric Serotta - Executive Director for US Beverages, Tobacco, and Household ProductsJacek Olczak - Group CEOJames Bushnell - VP of Investor Relations and Financial CommunicationConference Call ParticipantsBonnie Herzog - Managing Director and Veteran AnalystDamian McNeela - Director and Senior Analyst of Consumer StaplesFaham Baig - Global Tobacco Analyst and Executive DirectorGe ...

Philip Morris International (NYSE:PM) Q4 2025 Earnings call February 06, 2026 09:00 AM ET Company ParticipantsEmmanuel Babeau - CFOJacek Olczak - Group CEOJames Bushnell - VP of Investor Relations and Financial CommunicationConference Call ParticipantsGerald Pascarelli - Senior Analyst of Beverages, Tobacco, and CannabisMatt Smith - Senior Analyst of Consumer StaplesOperatorday and thank you for standing by. Welcome to the Philip Morris International, Inc., 2025 fourth quarter results conference call. At th ...

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - In 2025, total net revenues exceeded $40 billion, with 41.5% or nearly $17 billion generated from smoke-free products [8][11] - Adjusted diluted EPS grew by 15% in dollar terms, marking the strongest growth since 2011, excluding the pandemic recovery year of 2021 [5][11] - Organic top-line growth was +6.5%, with adjusted operating income growth at +10.6%, reflecting +140 basis points of organic margin expansion [11][12] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Smoke-free product volumes grew by 12.8%, with organic smoke-free gross profit growth of 18.7% [3][12] - IQOS shipments grew by approximately 11%, with a notable acceleration in the fourth quarter [3][15] - ZYN shipments in the U.S. increased by 37%, contributing significantly to smoke-free product growth [5][14] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The international business generated the majority of total PMI organic net revenue growth, with smoke-free products leading the way [5][19] - In Japan, the heat-not-burn category surpassed 50% of total industry volumes, driven by IQOS [25][26] - The U.S. market for nicotine pouches saw ZYN capturing around 50% of category growth, with a volume share of 61.5% [30][22] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company continues to focus on a multi-category strategy, expanding its smoke-free product offerings and geographic reach [4][9] - There is a strong emphasis on innovation and digitalization to support long-term growth [9][43] - The company targets a leverage ratio of close to 2x by the end of 2026, indicating a focus on financial flexibility and shareholder returns [7][44] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in achieving strong growth despite transitory headwinds, with a forecast of 5%-7% organic net revenue growth for 2026 [36][37] - The company anticipates continued strong cash generation, with operating cash flow projected at around $13.5 billion [38][43] - Management highlighted the importance of navigating regulatory environments and enhancing brand equity for future growth [32][33] Other Important Information - The company achieved a historic high share for Marlboro, reaching 11% of the international category, excluding China [34][5] - The number of legal-age consumers of smoke-free products reached an estimated 43.5 million, reflecting broad-based growth across categories [20][19] - The company is committed to delivering superior shareholder value, with a target dividend payout ratio of around 75% of adjusted diluted EPS [44][45] Q&A Session Summary Question: Can you expand on the reacceleration in smoke-free volume growth compared to the 2026 growth guidance? - Management indicated that the acceleration is expected due to tax changes in Japan and competitive dynamics in the U.S. market [49][50] Question: How are you thinking in terms of IQOS, HTU shipments, and IMS for 2026? - Management noted that while Japan faces challenges, other markets like Italy and Germany are showing strong growth, contributing positively to IQOS's outlook [58][62] Question: What are the key growth drivers for the upcoming year? - Management emphasized the importance of ZYN and IQOS, along with ongoing investments in marketing and innovation, as key drivers for growth [72][75]

2025 Fourth-Quarter and Full-Year Results February 6, 2026 Introduction • A glossary of terms as well as adjustments, other calculations and reconciliations to the most directly comparable U.S. GAAP measures for non-GAAP financial measures cited in this presentation are available in Exhibit 99.2 to the company's Form 8-K dated February 6, 2026 and on our Investor Relations website with additional non- GAAP reconciliations available at the end of this presentation 2 Forward-Looking and Cautionary Statements ...

Core Insights - Philip Morris International Inc. (PM) is expected to show growth in both revenue and earnings for Q4 2025, with revenue estimates at approximately $10.4 billion, reflecting a 7.3% increase year-over-year [1][9] - The earnings consensus remains steady at $1.67 per share, indicating a 7.7% increase from the previous year [2][9] Revenue and Earnings Performance - The anticipated revenue growth is supported by the company's shift towards a smoke-free product portfolio, which accounted for over 42% of gross profit in Q3 2025, driven by strong sales of IQOS, ZYN, and VEEV [3][9] - Smoke-free shipment volumes rose by 16.6%, and organic smoke-free revenues increased by 13.9%, indicating a favorable product mix and pricing strategy [4] Margin and Profitability - Pricing discipline and cost efficiencies have been significant contributors to margin expansion, with notable adjusted operating margin growth in Q3, supported by strong gross margins across both smoke-free and combustible categories [5] - Ongoing productivity initiatives and benefits from smoke-free growth are expected to continue supporting profitability, despite high commercial investments [5] Challenges and Headwinds - The company faces challenges from declining combustible cigarette volumes and foreign exchange volatility, with cigarette shipment volumes decreasing at a low-single-digit rate in Q3 [6] - These structural industry pressures are likely to persist into Q4, potentially impacting overall performance [6] Earnings Prediction Model - The current earnings prediction model does not indicate a strong likelihood of an earnings beat for Philip Morris, with an Earnings ESP of 0.00% and a Zacks Rank of 3 [7]

Core Insights - The tobacco sector is primarily represented by two industry leaders: Altria Group, Inc. and Philip Morris International Inc., each with distinct geographic focuses and strategies to adapt to the evolving nicotine landscape [1][2] Altria Group, Inc. (MO) - Altria focuses on the U.S. market, leveraging its Marlboro brand while expanding into smoke-free alternatives like NJOY and oral nicotine products [2] - In 2025, Altria achieved a 4.4% increase in adjusted earnings per share and returned approximately $8 billion to shareholders through dividends and share repurchases, highlighting its strong cash-flow generation [3] - The smokeable products segment generated over $11 billion in adjusted operating income with margins expanding to 63.4%, demonstrating Altria's pricing power despite a 9.5% decline in domestic cigarette volumes [4][6] - Altria's smoke-free strategy is advancing, with on! brand shipment volumes rising 10.9% in 2025, and plans for a national rollout of on! PLUS to capture growth in the nicotine pouch category [5] - The long-term investment outlook for Altria is challenged by structural and regulatory headwinds, with ongoing volume declines in traditional cigarettes [6] Philip Morris International Inc. (PM) - Philip Morris is transitioning towards smoke-free products, with smoke-free offerings accounting for 41% of total net revenues and 42% of gross profit in Q3 2025, driven by strong performance from IQOS, ZYN, and VEEV [7][8] - The company reported a record quarterly smoke-free gross profit of $3.1 billion, indicating a shift towards a more sustainable profit model [7] - Philip Morris' operational discipline and productivity initiatives have supported margin expansion and earnings growth, despite a 3.2% decline in cigarette shipment volumes in Q3 [10][11] - The reliance on smoke-free products introduces risks, as any slowdown in adoption could impact the ability to offset declines in combustible product volumes [11] Stock Performance and Valuation - Over the past year, Altria's shares increased by 15.9%, underperforming Philip Morris, which surged by 36.5%, and the industry's growth of 38.7% [12] - Altria's forward P/E ratio is 10.7, slightly below its one-year median, while Philip Morris' forward P/E ratio stands at 21.12, above its median [13] - Philip Morris is viewed as a more promising investment due to its diversified international presence and established portfolio of reduced-risk products, while Altria's growth is limited by its heavy exposure to the U.S. cigarette market [16][17]

Core Insights - Altria Group, Inc. and Philip Morris International Inc. are major players in the global tobacco industry, each with unique geographic exposure and strategic focuses [1][2] - Altria has a market capitalization of approximately $98.5 billion, primarily focused on the U.S. market, while Philip Morris has a larger market cap of about $248.6 billion, reflecting its international presence and innovation in reduced-risk products [1][2] Altria's Position - Altria maintains a strong position in the U.S. tobacco market, with a 64.4% adjusted operating companies income margin in Q3 2025, indicating strong pricing power despite declining cigarette volumes [3][6] - The company is investing in smoke-free products, with on! nicotine pouch shipments reaching 133.6 million cans year-to-date, and continues to innovate with products like on! PLUS and Horizon's Ploom [4][8] - Altria increased its quarterly dividend by 3.9% to $1.06 per share in August 2025, marking its 60th dividend increase in 56 years, and expanded its share-repurchase authorization to $2 billion through 2026 [5] - Domestic cigarette shipment volumes declined by 8.2% in Q3, and Marlboro's market share decreased by 1.2 percentage points to 40.4%, highlighting ongoing challenges [6] Philip Morris' Growth - Philip Morris is increasingly focused on smoke-free products, which accounted for 41% of total net revenues and 42% of gross profit in Q3 2025, with shipments growing by 16.6% year-over-year [7][9] - Key smoke-free brands like IQOS, ZYN, and VEEV are driving revenue growth, with IQOS leading in heated tobacco globally [9] - Operational discipline and cost controls have supported margin expansion and earnings growth, while the combustible segment remains under pressure with a 3.2% decline in cigarette shipment volumes [10][11] Earnings Estimates - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Altria's EPS indicates a year-over-year increase of approximately 6.3% for 2025 and 2.3% for 2026, remaining unchanged at $5.44 and $5.56 respectively [12] - For Philip Morris, the consensus estimate implies year-over-year growth of 14.2% for 2025 and 11.3% for 2026, with estimates slightly down to $7.50 and $8.35 [14] Stock Performance and Valuation - Over the past year, Altria's shares have increased by 17.4%, while Philip Morris has seen a stronger gain of 33.9% [15] - Altria's forward P/E ratio is 10.54, below its one-year median of 10.80, while Philip Morris' forward P/E ratio stands at 19.17, also below its median of 20.59 [16] Investment Appeal - Philip Morris offers stronger global growth and leadership in reduced-risk products, while Altria provides a compelling value proposition with higher income visibility and resilient margins [17] - Altria is viewed as a better option for income-focused investors seeking stability and consistent returns amid the industry's transition to smoke-free products [17]