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MO's on! Hits 8.7% Oral Tobacco Share: Can It Fend Off Competitors?
ZACKS· 2025-10-08 15:20
Key Takeaways Altria's on! reached 8.7% U.S. oral tobacco share, up 0.7 points from the prior year.The brand's 26.5% shipment jump to 52.1M cans drove segment profit growth.Helix drives on!'s growth through event marketing and rising brand awareness.Altria Group, Inc.’s ((MO) investment in the smoke-free future is anchored by its on! nicotine pouches, which were the primary driver of growth in the oral tobacco products segment for the second quarter of 2025. The brand’s strong performance pushed its retail ...
MO vs. PM: Which Tobacco Giant is Better Positioned for the Future?
ZACKS· 2025-09-26 16:11
Core Insights - Altria Group, Inc. and Philip Morris International Inc. are leading companies in the global tobacco industry, with market capitalizations of approximately $109.5 billion and $255.3 billion respectively [1][2] - Both companies are heavily investing in next-generation products to adapt to declining cigarette volumes and increasing demand for smoke-free alternatives [3] Altria Group, Inc. (MO) - Altria's strong pricing power has allowed it to offset declines in cigarette volumes, with a net price realization of 10% in the smokeable products segment leading to adjusted operating companies income (OCI) growth of 4.2% in Q2 2025 [4] - The oral tobacco segment saw a 10.9% increase in adjusted OCI, with segment margins expanding 310 basis points to 68.7%, driven by the success of the on! nicotine pouch brand [5] - Adjusted earnings per share increased by 8.3% year over year to $1.44, supported by strong adjusted OCI growth and share repurchases, with Marlboro holding a 59.5% share in the premium category [6] - Domestic cigarette volumes fell 10.2% in Q2 2025, indicating ongoing industry declines and competitive pressure from flavored disposable e-vapor products [7] Philip Morris International Inc. (PM) - Philip Morris' smoke-free products accounted for 41% of total net revenues in Q2 2025, reflecting a 15.2% year-over-year increase, with IQOS, ZYN, and VEEV driving this growth [11] - Combustible net revenues advanced 2.1% in the quarter, supported by strong pricing power, while gross profit increased by 5% [12] - The company achieved over $500 million in gross cost savings in the first half of 2025, contributing to meaningful margin expansion [13] - Traditional cigarette volumes fell 1.5% year over year to 155.2 billion units, with management projecting a full-year decline of 2% [14] Financial Performance Comparison - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Altria's 2025 EPS is $5.39, indicating a year-over-year increase of 5.3%, while Philip Morris' estimate remains at $7.50, suggesting growth of 14.2% [15] - Over the past year, Altria stock gained 27.7%, underperforming Philip Morris, which increased by 36% [16] Investment Outlook - Philip Morris is viewed as the stronger growth story due to its transition to smoke-free products and efficiency initiatives, while Altria offers stability and consistent performance [17]
Philip Morris Raises Dividend: A Look at Its Growth Strategy
ZACKS· 2025-09-22 15:30
Dividend Increase - Philip Morris International Inc. has raised its quarterly dividend by 8.9% to $1.47 per share, with the annualized dividend now totaling $5.88 per share, marking a total increase of 219.6% since 2008 [1][8] - The next dividend payment is scheduled for October 20, 2025, to shareholders on record as of October 3, 2025 [1] Growth Strategy - The company's long-term growth strategy is focused on its smoke-free transformation, with smoke-free products contributing 41% of total net revenues in Q2 2025, growing 15.2% year over year [2] - Key products driving this growth include IQOS, ZYN, and VEEV, positioning the company for sustainable growth and long-term value creation [2] Traditional Cigarette Business - Despite volume declines, the traditional cigarette business remains resilient, with combustible net revenues growing 2.1% in Q2, driven by price increases [3] - Marlboro achieved its highest quarterly market share since the 2008 spin-off, reinforcing the brand's strength and pricing leadership [3] Cost Efficiency Initiatives - The company achieved over $500 million in gross cost savings in the first half of the year through optimization initiatives, aiming for $2 billion in gross cost efficiencies between 2024 and 2026 [4] - By mid-2025, the company has already realized more than $1.2 billion in cost efficiencies, contributing to margin expansion [4] Earnings Outlook - Management has lifted its full-year adjusted earnings per share guidance to a range of $7.43-$7.56, indicating a growth of 13-15% [5] - This outlook reflects management's confidence in sustaining double-digit earnings growth despite ongoing regulatory and currency challenges [5] Stock Performance - Over the past six months, Philip Morris stock has risen 7.6%, compared to the industry's growth of 15.7% [10]
Altria Returns $4 Billion to Shareholders in First Half of 2025
ZACKS· 2025-09-16 14:35
Core Insights - Altria Group, Inc. returned over $4 billion to shareholders in the first half of 2025 through dividends and share repurchases, demonstrating its strong cash-generating ability despite a challenging operating environment [1][8] Capital Return Strategy - Dividends are central to Altria's capital return strategy, with $3.5 billion distributed in the first half of 2025, reflecting the company's policy of returning the majority of earnings to shareholders [2] - Altria repurchased 10.4 million shares at an average price of $57.71, spending $600 million on buybacks, with $400 million remaining under its $1 billion share repurchase program [2][8] Financial Strength - Altria maintains a solid balance sheet, with a total debt-to-EBITDA ratio of 2.0x as of June 30, 2025, aligning with its financial targets and providing flexibility for shareholder returns [3][8] - The company's capital return strategy indicates management's confidence in its cash flow from tobacco and smoke-free products, reinforcing its position as a reliable income play in the consumer staples sector [4] Competitive Landscape - In contrast, Philip Morris International Inc. is focusing on smoke-free product expansion rather than capital returns, allocating resources to grow brands like IQOS, ZYN, and VEEV [5] - Turning Point Brands, Inc. reported a prudent financial position with total gross debt of $300 million and did not engage in share repurchases, focusing instead on market presence and product offerings [6] Valuation and Earnings Estimates - Altria's shares have decreased by 1.7% over the past month, compared to a 0.4% decline in the industry [7] - The company trades at a forward price-to-earnings ratio of 11.77X, lower than the industry average of 15.21X [10] - Zacks Consensus Estimates indicate year-over-year earnings growth of 5.3% for 2025 and 2.9% for 2026 [11]
Can on! Help Altria Capture More of the Booming Pouch Market?
ZACKS· 2025-09-02 15:56
Core Insights - Altria Group, Inc. is focusing on the growing nicotine pouch market, with its on! brand leading the way, achieving a 26.5% year-over-year increase in shipments to 52.1 million cans in Q2 2025, and capturing an 8.7% share of the U.S. oral tobacco market [1][8] - The U.S. nicotine pouch category has grown by 52%, indicating a significant shift in consumer preferences towards this product type [1] - Altria's marketing efforts have successfully reached over 170,000 adult tobacco consumers, increasing brand awareness by 7 percentage points [2][8] Shipment and Earnings Performance - The oral tobacco segment reported a 10.9% increase in adjusted operating companies income (OCI) year-over-year, with margins expanding from 65.6% to 68.7% [3][8] - The on! brand captured a 16.7% market share in Q2 and 17.3% in the first half of 2025, demonstrating strong growth momentum [1] Competitive Landscape - Competition in the nicotine pouch category is intensifying, with Philip Morris International's ZYN brand experiencing a 26% growth in U.S. offtake and a 43% increase globally [5] - Turning Point Brands, Inc. has seen its Modern Oral sales increase nearly eightfold year-over-year to $30.1 million in Q2 2025, positioning itself as a fast-growing competitor in the market [6] Valuation and Estimates - Altria's shares have increased by 8.5% over the past month, outperforming the industry growth of 3.9% [7] - The company trades at a forward price-to-earnings ratio of 12.2X, lower than the industry's average of 15.35X [10] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Altria's earnings per share for 2025 and 2026 has increased by one cent each to $5.39 and $5.55, respectively [11]
PMI(PM) - 2025 FY - Earnings Call Presentation
2025-09-02 15:15
Financial Performance & Guidance - PMI confirms its 2025 adjusted diluted EPS guidance, projecting a growth of 13-15% driven by smoke-free products[3] - This growth represents the strongest performance since 2011, excluding the pandemic recovery period[3] - The forecast for reported diluted EPS in 2025 is $7.24 - $7.37, compared to $4.52 in 2024[6] - Adjusted diluted EPS for 2025 is projected to be $7.43 - $7.56, up from $6.57 in 2024[6] - Excluding currency effects, the adjusted diluted EPS growth is expected to be 11.5% - 13.5%, with EPS ranging from $7.33 - $7.46 compared to $6.57 in 2024[6] Business Momentum - PMI experienced strong momentum over the summer months, driven by IQOS growth and international expansion of ZYN and VEEV[3] - Combustible product sales performed better than expected in Turkey and Egypt[3] - The company is intensifying commercial activities in the U S due to increasing competition in the ZYN market, with some inventory normalization expected in Q3[3] - New smoke-free product markets are opening, including Taiwan[3] Factors Affecting Performance - Restructuring charges are estimated at $0.13 per share in 2025, compared to $0.10 in 2024[6] - Amortization of intangibles is projected at $0.50 per share in 2025, up from $0.40 in 2024[6]
Philip Morris Transformation Accelerates With IQOS and ZYN Growth
ZACKS· 2025-08-26 16:10
Core Insights - Philip Morris International Inc. (PM) is experiencing significant growth in smoke-free products, which are becoming a crucial part of its long-term transformation strategy, potentially offsetting declines in traditional cigarette sales [1][3][4] Smoke-Free Product Performance - Smoke-free products, including IQOS, ZYN, and VEEV, saw a shipment volume increase of 11.8%, resulting in a 15.2% rise in net revenues and a 23.3% increase in gross profit year over year [1][8] - Smoke-free products now account for 41% of total revenues and 42% of gross profit, indicating a strong shift in the company's revenue structure [1][3] - Management anticipates smoke-free volumes to grow by 12-14% for the full year, while cigarette volumes are expected to decline by approximately 2% [2] Cigarette Sales Overview - Cigarette shipments decreased by 1.5% to 155.2 billion units, primarily due to weaknesses in markets like Turkey and Indonesia [2][8] - Despite the decline in shipment volumes, combustibles still generated $6 billion in quarterly revenues, reflecting a 2.1% year-over-year increase [2][8] Competitive Landscape - Altria Group, Inc. (MO) is focusing on its on! nicotine pouch brand, which saw a 26.5% increase in shipments to 52.1 million cans, capturing an 8.7% retail share in the U.S. oral tobacco market [5] - Turning Point Brands, Inc. (TPB) reported a nearly eightfold increase in Modern Oral sales to $30.1 million, raising its revenue target for 2025 to $100-$110 million [6] Financial Metrics - Philip Morris shares have increased by 6.1% over the past month, compared to an industry growth of 11.3% [7] - The company is trading at a forward price-to-earnings ratio of 20.7X, higher than the industry average of 15.69X [9] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate projects year-over-year earnings growth of 14.2% for 2025 and 11.9% for 2026 [10]
Altria vs. Philip Morris: Which Stock Smokes Out Better Returns?
ZACKS· 2025-08-25 15:36
Industry Overview - The tobacco industry is undergoing significant transformation due to declining cigarette volumes, rising health awareness, and evolving regulatory frameworks [2] - Companies are competing not only on brand strength but also on their ability to innovate with alternatives like heated tobacco and nicotine pouches [2] Altria Group, Inc. (MO) - Altria's adjusted earnings per share (EPS) rose 8.3% year over year to $1.44 in Q2 2025, supported by higher pricing, cost efficiencies, and share repurchases [5] - Revenues net of excise taxes were $5.29 billion, indicating portfolio stability [5] - Management raised the lower end of its 2025 adjusted EPS guidance to $5.35-$5.45, reflecting a growth rate of 3% to 5% [5] - Shipments of the on! nicotine pouch brand increased by 26.5% to 52.1 million cans, capturing an 8.7% retail share of the U.S. oral tobacco market [6] - The smokeable products segment showed resilience with adjusted operating income rising 4.2% and margins expanding 290 basis points to 64.5% [7] - Marlboro maintained a 59.5% share in the premium category, highlighting brand strength [7] Philip Morris International Inc. (PM) - Philip Morris' smoke-free products accounted for 41% of total net revenues in Q2 2025, growing 15.2% year over year [10] - The traditional cigarette business remains resilient, with combustible net revenues growing 2.1% in Q2, driven by price increases [11] - Management lifted its full-year adjusted EPS guidance to $7.43-$7.56, indicating 13-15% growth [13] - The company achieved over $500 million in gross cost savings in H1 2025, aiming for $2 billion in efficiencies by 2026 [12] - Cigarette shipment volumes declined 1.5% year over year to 155.2 billion units in Q2, with a forecasted 2% decrease for the full year [14] Comparative Analysis - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Altria's 2025 EPS is $5.39, implying a year-over-year increase of 5.3% [15] - Philip Morris' consensus estimate remains at $7.50, indicating growth of 14.2% for 2025 [15] - Altria stock advanced 15.2% in the past month, outperforming Philip Morris' 8.9% gain [16] - Altria trades at a forward P/E multiple of 12.29, while Philip Morris carries a premium multiple of 21.25 [16] Investment Outlook - Philip Morris is viewed as the stronger long-term investment due to its global scale and leadership in smoke-free innovation [19] - Altria remains attractive for income-oriented investors but is seen as less favorable for sustained growth compared to Philip Morris [19]
PM Stock Trades at Premium Value: Should You Buy, Hold or Sell?
ZACKS· 2025-08-20 16:25
Core Viewpoint - Philip Morris International Inc. is currently trading at a forward P/E multiple of 20.93X, which is significantly higher than the Zacks Tobacco industry average of 15.31X and the broader Consumer Staples sector average of 17.14X, raising questions about whether the growth justifies this premium [1][2][4]. Valuation and Performance - Philip Morris trades at a forward P/E of 20.93X, above industry and sector averages, indicating a premium valuation [7]. - Recent performance shows PM shares fell 6.4% over the past month, contrasting with gains in the Zacks Tobacco industry and the S&P 500, which advanced 0.6% and 2.5% respectively [5][4]. - Major competitors like Altria and British American Tobacco have lower forward P/E ratios of 12.12X and 11.88X, while Turning Point Brands trades at a higher multiple of 24.02X [4]. Revenue and Growth - Smoke-free products accounted for 41% of revenues in Q2, growing 15.2% year-over-year, driven by IQOS, ZYN, and VEEV [7][18]. - Despite volume declines in traditional cigarettes, PM's combustible net revenues grew 2.1% in Q2, supported by price increases [19]. - Management projects a 2% full-year decline in cigarette volume, with a sharper 3-4% drop expected in the second half [15]. Cost Efficiency and Earnings Guidance - The company achieved over $500 million in gross cost savings in the first half of the year and aims for $2 billion in efficiencies between 2024 and 2026 [20]. - Adjusted earnings per share for the last quarter were reported at $1.91, up 20% year-over-year, although impacted by currency volatility [17]. - Management raised its full-year adjusted EPS guidance to $7.43-$7.56, indicating 13-15% growth [21]. Market Sentiment and Estimates - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for earnings per share has seen upward revisions, with current estimates at $7.50 for the current year and $8.39 for the next year, reflecting year-over-year growth rates of 14.2% and 11.9% respectively [22]. - Despite challenges, the raised EPS outlook and upward estimate revisions indicate confidence in sustained earnings growth [24].
Is on! Brand Growth Enough to Offset MST Declines at Altria?
ZACKS· 2025-08-11 16:25
Core Insights - Altria Group's on! brand experienced significant growth in Q2 2025, with shipments increasing by 26.5% year over year and capturing an 8.7% market share in the oral tobacco segment, up 0.7 percentage points from the previous year [1][8] - The oral tobacco segment's adjusted operating income rose by 10.9%, despite challenges in the moist smokeless tobacco (MST) category, which saw declines in retail share for key brands [1][2] Oral Tobacco Segment Performance - The moist smokeless tobacco category faced headwinds, with Copenhagen and Skoal experiencing retail share declines of 3.5 and 1.6 percentage points, respectively, leading to an overall decline of 4.6 percentage points in the segment's total retail share to 33.1% [2] - Volumes for Copenhagen and Skoal fell by 7.7% and 8.8%, respectively, indicating a significant downturn in traditional smokeless products [2] Nicotine Pouch Market Dynamics - The nicotine pouch category now constitutes over half of the U.S. oral tobacco market, providing a favorable environment for on!'s growth, although competition is intensifying [3] - on!'s share of the pouch segment decreased by 2.3 percentage points to 16.7%, highlighting the challenges in maintaining market share [3][4] Competitive Landscape - Philip Morris International's ZYN brand saw U.S. offtake growth of 26% in Q2 2025, with global volumes increasing by 43% due to expansion into 44 markets, supporting a multi-category smoke-free strategy [5] - Turning Point Brands reported a nearly eightfold increase in Modern Oral sales to $30.1 million, aiming for a double-digit U.S. market share by the end of the decade [6] Financial Performance and Valuation - Altria's shares increased by 10.5% over the past month, outperforming the industry growth of 1.3% [7] - The company trades at a forward price-to-earnings ratio of 11.7X, lower than the industry's average of 15.36X [10] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Altria's earnings per share for 2025 and 2026 has risen by 3 cents and 2 cents, respectively, to $5.39 and $5.55 [11]