Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - **Industry**: Global Metals & Mining, specifically focusing on the steel export market from China Key Insights 1. **Steel Export Growth**: Chinese steel net exports reached 104 million tonnes in FY'24, a 25% increase from 83 million tonnes in FY'23, which was itself a 46% increase from 57 million tonnes in FY'22. The annualized figure for 1H'25 is projected at 110 million tonnes [1][2][3] 2. **Price Differentials Impact**: The increase in exports is primarily attributed to near-record price differentials between Chinese steel and global steel prices. Higher absolute price levels and profit spreads have allowed steel exports to travel farther, as transportation costs as a percentage of steel margins have decreased [1][2] 3. **Changing Export Destinations**: The share of steel exports to traditional markets like ASEAN and South Korea has declined. South Korea, which accounted for approximately 14% of China's steel exports over the last decade, saw its share shrink to 8% in FY'24 and is annualizing at 7% in 1H'25. ASEAN's share also decreased from 33% to 28-30% in recent years [3][4] 4. **Emerging Markets**: In contrast, exports to Brazil and Saudi Arabia have increased significantly. Saudi Arabia has become the fifth-largest destination for Chinese steel, constituting 4.6% of total exports [3] 5. **Future Projections**: As global price differentials are expected to shrink in 2H'25, a contraction in Chinese steel exports is anticipated, particularly to more distant markets [1] Additional Considerations - **Transportation Costs**: The percentage of transportation costs relative to steel prices has decreased since 2016, which has facilitated the trend of steel traveling farther. However, if steel prices normalize, the proportion of exports to ASEAN may increase again [4] - **Historical Context**: The current export levels are still below the peak levels seen in 2015, indicating that while there is growth, it is not at an all-time high [2] This summary encapsulates the critical insights from the conference call regarding the state of the steel export market from China, highlighting growth trends, changing dynamics in export destinations, and future expectations.

Investment Rating - The report indicates a bearish outlook for the iron ore market, with price forecasts suggesting a decline to $92/t by December 2025 and $87/t by December 2026, reflecting a decrease of 3% and 8% from the current front-month prices [3][4]. Core Insights - The report highlights a consensus among industry players regarding a bearish iron ore price outlook, driven by factors such as slowing global economic growth, reduced steel demand in China and beyond, and increased supply from projects like Mineral Resources' Onslow and the Simandou Project [4][5]. - The forecast for Q4 2026 suggests a price of $80/t, which is at the lower end of expectations, influenced by rising iron ore port stocks in China, a projected 2% year-over-year decline in domestic steel demand in 2025, and an anticipated appreciation of the CNY/USD exchange rate [5][8]. - The report notes that prices need to remain around $80/t for an extended period to eliminate less price-responsive supply from the market, particularly as global seaborne demand is expected to decline significantly [8]. Summary by Sections Price Outlook - The report anticipates iron ore prices to range between $95-100/t for Q2-Q3 2025, followed by a decline to $90/t in Q4 due to various economic factors [4]. - The bearish sentiment is reinforced by expectations of further price declines in 2026, with most forecasts clustering in the $80-90/t range [5]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - A significant decline in China’s domestic iron ore production is expected, with projections of an 8% decrease in 2025 and a further 16% decrease in 2026, attributed to lower demand despite initiatives to boost production [14]. - The report emphasizes that while there is a structural decline in China’s steel output, no strict government-mandated production cuts are anticipated in the near term due to improved steelmaking margins [9]. Export Factors - The strength of China’s steel exports is identified as a critical factor influencing steel production, with expectations of a decline in direct steel exports due to anti-dumping duties and base effects [10][11]. - Despite a projected decline in net exports, the report suggests that China may still manage to sustain higher export levels by shifting focus to long and semi-finished steel products [11].