What role does a high-flying stock market play in deciding what the Fed might do at their upcoming meetings. Let's ask Richard Fischer. He's a senior adviser now for Jeff.He's the former Dallas Fed president, also a CNBC contributor, and it's nice to see you. Welcome back. >> Thank you, Scott.What's up. You know, I I I thought that was notable yesterday in the minutes where they said some note financial conditions suggest policy may not be particularly restrictive >> and how they might look at this record r ...

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The big debate raging right now is whether stocks can continue marching higher despite sky-high valuations. The doubters correctly point out that the S&P 500's breakneck 35% return since the April low has lifted its forward price to earnings ratio—a standard valuation measure—to stratospheric levels. According to FactSet, the S&P 500's forward one-year P/E ratio, which divides the S&P 500's price by the collective earnings anticipated over the coming year, stands at 22.8, handily above the 10-year average ...

For the most part, the sharp rally in the stock market has been at odds with the underlying macroeconomic reality. Consumers are worried about inflation and possible job cuts, and the Fed is preparing to cut ratesWith combined experience of covering technology companies on Wall Street and working in Silicon Valley, and serving as an outside adviser to several seed-round startups, Gary Alexander has exposure to many of the themes shaping the industry today. He has been a regular contributor on Seeking Alpha ...

Underneath the sharp stock market rally that has surprised investors this year, a trend has played out that gets little attention: the very top end of the S&P 500 has been driving all the gains (namely, large-cap tech stocks like Microsoft Corporation (With combined experience of covering technology companies on Wall Street and working in Silicon Valley, and serving as an outside adviser to several seed-round startups, Gary Alexander has exposure to many of the themes shaping the industry today. He has been ...

Market Overview - The stock market experienced a bullish rebound on Friday, reducing the weekly losses for the Nasdaq and S&P 500, with both indices showing technical support at their 21-day exponential moving averages [1] - The Nasdaq is up 4.8% for September, aiming for its sixth consecutive monthly gain, while the S&P 500 has climbed 2.8%, targeting its fifth straight up month [1] Earnings Reports - A modest week of earnings reports includes Nike (NKE) and stocks like Carnival (CCL) and Levi Strauss (LEVI) showing strong charts [2] - Nike is set to report its fiscal first quarter, marking the end of the quarterly earnings season [7] - Carnival is testing support at its 10-week line, with shares up nearly 22% year-to-date [7] Tesla Deliveries - Tesla is expected to report global third-quarter vehicle deliveries on Thursday, with analyst consensus around 448,000, which is approximately 17% above the second-quarter total but down 3% compared to Q3 2024 [6] - Projections for Tesla's Q3 deliveries vary, with Piper Sandler estimating 495,000 and UBS predicting 475,000, while Kalshi prediction market suggests 505,000 units, which would be a record [6] Job Market Insights - The September jobs report is crucial for the Federal Reserve's outlook, with economists expecting a 50,000-job overall payroll gain, private payrolls up 75,000, and government jobs down by 25,000 [5] - The jobless rate is expected to hold at 4.3%, with average hourly wage growth at 3.7% [5] Earnings Revisions - The Net Earnings Revisions Index (NERI) showed a significant rebound, turning positive in August for the first time in 11 months, reaching a 45-month high by late September [8] - Health care and financials exhibited the strongest revision activity, both up more than 11%, while energy and consumer staples were the weakest, each down more than 3% [8]

Bullish investors should keep hedging their portfolios as more and more people chase this year’s stock market rally, according to Nomura cross-asset strategist Charlie McElligott https://t.co/GfLn1T9oKo ...

Company Performance - Micron Technology's stock fell 2.8% despite reporting better-than-expected profit and revenue, indicating high market expectations as the stock had already gained 97.7% year-to-date [3] - Freeport-McMoRan's stock dropped 17% after the company revised its copper sales forecast down by 4% and gold sales by approximately 6% for the third quarter [4] - Lithium Americas' stock surged 95.8% following reports of potential U.S. government ownership stake in the company, which is developing a lithium project in Nevada with General Motors [4][5] Industry Trends - U.S. stock indexes experienced a slight decline after a significant rally, raising concerns about stock prices becoming too high if the Federal Reserve does not meet rate cut expectations [2] - Homebuilders saw gains as U.S. new home sales in August exceeded economists' forecasts, with Lennar rising 2% and PulteGroup and D.R. Horton both increasing by 0.7% [6]

Group 1 - The outlook for equities and risk assets is assessed through the lens of US and global business cycles, corporate earnings, monetary policy, liquidity, and positioning [1] - The investment research approach focuses on leveraging the business cycle and incorporates macro, fundamentals, technicals, sentiment, and market structure [2]

Market Performance - US stocks have reached record highs this year, with the S&P 500 Index adding $15 trillion in market value since early April and achieving 27 records in 2025, reflecting a 34% gain over the last five months, primarily driven by Big Tech shares [2][3] - The Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts have contributed to a high risk appetite among investors, although there are concerns that the market may have already priced in positive developments, which could lead to stock underperformance if economic growth slows [3][4] Economic Indicators - FedEx Corp. has indicated a potential $1 billion impact from trade volatility and the loss of a key exemption for low-value goods, highlighting the ongoing effects of the global trade war on companies [5] - Economists predict that real US GDP growth will decelerate to 1.5% on an annualized basis in the third quarter, a significant drop from the 3.3% growth reported in the second quarter [6] Investment Sentiment - Analysts at Bloomberg Intelligence suggest that the current economic environment, characterized by middling growth, may present buying opportunities for stocks, as historical trends indicate that such conditions can lead to favorable market performance [7]