Quick Read In a single day in the 1980s, the Dow Jones lost 508 points or 22.6%. Today’s protective circuit breakers didn’t exist when the worst one-day market crash occurred. After that collapse, investors only had to hold on for a full recovery and substantial profits. A recent study identified one single habit that doubled Americans’ retirement savings and moved retirement from dream, to reality. Read more here. There are down days, and then there are catastrophic days. Every once in a while, ...

In a recent interview, Kiyosaki revealed he’s been hoarding the metal: “I have boxes of gold. I own gold mines,” he said (4).Indeed, precious metals are often viewed as a natural hedge against inflation — unlike fiat currencies, they can’t be printed at will by central banks. Gold is also widely considered the ultimate safe haven asset. It’s not tied to any one country, currency or economy and in times of economic turmoil or geopolitical uncertainty, investors often flock to it — driving prices higher.Kiyos ...

Though the Shiller P/E wasn't introduced until the late 1980s, it's been back-tested to January 1871. Over this 155-year period, the CAPE Ratio has averaged approximately 17.3. But for the last three months, it's vacillated between 39 and 41. The only time the Shiller P/E has been higher than it is now is in the lead-up to the bursting of the dot-com bubble.To begin with, the S&P 500's Shiller Price-to-Earnings (P/E) Ratio is nearing uncharted territory. The Shiller P/E, also referred to as the Cyclically A ...

Market Sentiment - 38.5% of investors feel optimistic about the market in the next six months, while 38.1% are concerned about a potential downturn this year [1] Market Predictions - The timing of the next market downturn is uncertain, but downturns are a natural part of the market cycle, suggesting that investors should prepare for them [2] Investment Strategy - Staying invested during market fluctuations is crucial, as pulling out can lead to significant losses if the market rebounds [5][7] - Historical examples show that selling during downturns can result in selling at a loss and having to reinvest at higher prices later [6][7] - The best way to protect investments during volatility is to remain invested, regardless of market conditions [8]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the potential for a stock market correction during the second year of Donald Trump's presidency, supported by historical data and correlations, particularly focusing on the Shiller P/E Ratio and midterm election impacts. Group 1: Shiller P/E Ratio Insights - The Shiller P/E Ratio, or CAPE Ratio, has averaged 17.34 over the last 155 years but was at 40.35 as of February 11, indicating the second-highest stock market valuation in history, only behind the dot-com era [1][2] - Historical data suggests that Shiller P/E Ratios above 30 typically signal trouble for stocks, with previous instances leading to declines of 20% or more in major indices [7] Group 2: Market Performance Under Trump - Since Trump's second term began on January 20, 2025, major indices have seen significant gains: Dow up 15%, S&P 500 up 16%, and Nasdaq up 18% as of February 11 [5] - During Trump's first term, the Dow, S&P 500, and Nasdaq gained 57%, 70%, and 142% respectively, showcasing a strong market performance [6] Group 3: Historical Correlations and Market Corrections - Historically, midterm election years have led to larger stock market corrections, with an average peak-to-trough downturn of 17.5% for the S&P 500 since 1950 [13] - The S&P 500 fell nearly 20% during the midterm elections of Trump's first term, indicating a pattern that could repeat [13] Group 4: Technology and Market Bubbles - The article highlights that every major technological innovation over the past three decades has experienced a bubble-bursting event, suggesting that current investments in AI may face similar risks [8][10] - While companies are heavily investing in AI infrastructure, there are concerns about the optimization of these technologies to enhance corporate profitability [10] Group 5: Long-term Market Outlook - Despite short-term corrections, historical data shows that bear markets are typically short-lived, averaging 286 calendar days, while bull markets last significantly longer, averaging 1,011 calendar days [21] - The article emphasizes the importance of a long-term perspective for investors, as corrections and crashes tend to be temporary [18][21]

Core Insights - The Shiller P/E Ratio, or CAPE Ratio, historically indicates significant declines in major stock indexes when it exceeds 30, with past instances leading to declines between 20% and 89% [1][2][3] - The current CAPE Ratio is between 39 and 41, marking it as the second-highest valuation in history, compared to a long-term average of 17.3 for the S&P 500 over the last 155 years [2][3] - Historical data suggests a correlation between U.S. recessions and the political party in the White House, with all 10 Republican presidents since 1913 overseeing the start of a recession, while only 4 out of 9 Democratic presidents experienced the same [8][9] Market Performance - During President Trump's first term, the Dow, S&P 500, and Nasdaq saw cumulative returns of 57%, 70%, and 142% respectively [7] - Since Trump's second term began, the Dow, S&P 500, and Nasdaq have risen by 14%, 16%, and 20% respectively, reaching multiple record-closing highs [6] Midterm Elections Impact - Midterm election years historically lead to increased volatility in the stock market, with the average drawdown for the S&P 500 being 17.5% since 1950 [10][11] - The S&P 500 fell nearly 20% during the second year of Trump's first term, indicating potential for similar corrections in the current midterm election year [10] Long-term Outlook - Despite potential short-term declines, historical data shows that all rolling 20-year periods of the S&P 500 have produced positive annualized returns, suggesting that long-term investors may benefit from patience [20]

Core Insights - The U.S. stock market has experienced significant growth over the past three years, but corporate insiders are now selling at a rate not seen since the last major market peak [1][2] - The sell-to-buy ratio for corporate insider selling has reached its highest level in five years, indicating a trend of profit-taking among executives [2] - Major institutions and analysts are expressing caution regarding the sustainability of the market rally, particularly in light of high valuations and concentration in AI-linked stocks [3][4] Corporate Insider Activity - Corporate insiders are capitalizing on high valuations, with the current sell-to-buy ratio being the highest in five years, reminiscent of the pre-bear market selling in 2021 [2] - The aggressive selling by insiders coincides with a significant rally in the S&P 500, which rose 23.3% in 2024, 16% in 2025, and 1.4% in January 2026, pushing the index above 7,000 for the first time [2] Market Valuation Concerns - The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has warned that elevated stock valuations are increasing the risk of disorderly corrections, particularly for U.S. equities linked to AI [3] - Fidelity International's January 2026 market outlook noted that high valuations and index concentration have led to profit-taking and increased volatility across various sectors [4] Overall Market Sentiment - The combination of aggressive insider selling and warnings from global institutions suggests a growing concern about stretched valuations and the potential for market corrections [5] - While the market rally may continue, the behavior of insiders indicates a cautious sentiment among those closest to the financial data [6]

The S&P 500 (SNPINDEX: ^GSPC) has added 1.5% year to date, and the benchmark index currently sits within half a percentage point of its all-time high. However, several Federal Reserve officials (including Chair Jerome Powell) have warned investors that stock prices are elevated by historical standards. Wall Street anticipates double-digit gains in the S&P 500 in the remaining months of 2026, but a stock market drawdown (or even a crash) is well within the realm of possibility. Here's what investors shoul ...

Core Insights - Robert Kiyosaki predicts a significant market crash that could adversely affect Baby Boomers' retirement savings, particularly due to their reliance on 401(k) plans [2] - Despite Kiyosaki's warnings, the S&P 500 has risen by 36% since his tweet, indicating a continued market uptrend [2] - Kiyosaki suggests diversifying investments to mitigate risks associated with potential market downturns [3] Investment Strategies - Kiyosaki advocates for gold as a hedge against stock market volatility, emphasizing its stability compared to fiat currency [5] - He forecasts a target price of $27,000 for gold by 2025, with its value having increased by 71% over the past year, reaching $4,673 per ounce as of January 2026 [6] - Investors can consider opening a gold IRA to hold physical gold or gold-related assets within a retirement account, benefiting from tax advantages while protecting against economic uncertainties [8] Company Insights - Priority Gold, with over 20 years of industry experience, has received an A+ rating from the Better Business Bureau and a 5-star rating on TrustLink, indicating a strong reputation in the market [10]

Core Insights - The article emphasizes the unpredictability of short-term market movements, advocating for a long-term investment strategy focused on fundamentally sound stocks [1][4][11] Group 1: Market Predictions and Sentiment - Warren Buffett's philosophy suggests that investors should be cautious when market sentiment is overly bullish, as indicated by the American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) survey showing bullish sentiment at 42.5%, above the five-year average of 35.5% [5][6] - Historical data indicates that high bullish sentiment often correlates with lower future returns for the S&P 500, suggesting a potential downturn in the market [6][11] Group 2: Valuation Metrics - Berkshire Hathaway has been a net seller of stocks for three consecutive years, indicating a lack of reasonably priced buying opportunities amid rising valuations [4][7] - The S&P 500's forward price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio has increased from 15.5 in October 2022 to 22.2, significantly above the five-year average of 20 and the ten-year average of 18.7 [8] - Historically, P/E ratios above 22 have been associated with weak market returns, as seen during the dot-com bubble and the COVID-19 pandemic [9][10] Group 3: Economic Factors - President Trump's tariffs are viewed as a potential headwind to economic growth, coinciding with a weakening jobs market, which may further impact market performance [3][4][10]