Berkshire Hathaway's cash stockpile just reached record heights. Is that a warning sign for investors?There are few names in the investing world that have as much of an impact as Warren Buffett, so when the stock market mogul speaks, it often pays to listen.Some investors have noted that Buffett's holding company, Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A 0.14%)(BRK.B 0.27%), has been stockpiling cash in recent years. In fact, in the third quarter of 2025, the company's cash holdings reached a record high of nearly $382 bi ...

Core Viewpoint - Robert Kiyosaki warns that the "biggest crash in history" is already underway, despite the S&P 500 nearing record highs, highlighting concerns over an AI bubble and economic instability [1][2][7] Market Conditions - As of November 28, 2025, the S&P 500 was at 6,849.09, close to its 52-week high of 6,920.34 [2] - Kiyosaki points to AI-driven layoffs and global economic jitters as contributing factors to a potential market collapse, particularly in residential and commercial real estate [2][7] Kiyosaki's Background - Robert Kiyosaki is a well-known financial commentator and author of "Rich Dad Poor Dad," which has sold over 32 million copies worldwide [3][4] - He has built a brand around financial education, focusing on leveraged real estate, "good debt," and investments in gold, silver, and Bitcoin [4] Wealth and Influence - Kiyosaki's personal wealth is estimated at $100 million, although he claims to be "over $1 billion in debt" by design [5] - His recent warnings have sparked renewed debate among investors regarding market conditions and potential downturns [6][7]

The recent euphoria surrounding the artificial intelligence mega-boom has led to massive concentration in the U.S. stock market, prompting fears of a catastrophic crash similar to the 2001 dotcom bust or the 2008 financial crisis. Many of these views have been aired recently on Scott Galloway and Ed Elson’s financial podcast, Prof G Markets, including a bearish stance from longtime bull NYU Stern finance professor Aswath Damodaran, who said the market was failing to price in a “potentially catastrophic” sc ...

Core Insights - The article discusses Andrew Ross Sorkin's new book "1929," which explores the events leading to the Great Crash of 1929 and its cultural impact on society [1][2][17] - The narrative highlights how the stock market dominated the culture of the time, with widespread participation from various social classes, including billionaires and everyday citizens [3][4][5] Group 1: Cultural Impact and Participation - The stock market was a central aspect of American culture in 1929, with significant involvement from the elite and the general public [3][4] - The book illustrates that many prominent figures, including Groucho Marx, were heavily affected by the market's downturn, showcasing the widespread nature of the crisis [4][14] - The optimism of the era was fueled by technological advancements, leading to a belief that capitalism could elevate everyone to millionaire status [5][6] Group 2: Key Figures and Their Roles - Charlie Mitchell, a significant figure in the financial landscape, promoted the idea of democratizing finance and was instrumental in the creation of modern credit systems [7][10] - Contrasting views emerged from various financial leaders, with some, like Charles Merrill, advising caution as early as 1928, while others believed the market was stable [9][11] - The book details the actions and decisions of influential figures during the crash, including Carter Glass, who warned against the practices that led to the financial collapse [10][12] Group 3: Market Dynamics and Policy Responses - The article emphasizes that the market's decline was not a singular event but a series of failures and poor policy decisions that followed the crash [13][16] - By the end of 1929, the stock market was only down 17%, indicating that the initial impact was not as severe as commonly perceived [13] - The lack of regulatory frameworks at the time, such as the absence of the SEC, contributed to the chaotic trading environment [15][16]

Core Insights - The stock market is currently experiencing record highs, but concerns about a potential crash in 2026 are emerging [1] Valuation Indicators - Warren Buffett's favorite valuation metric, the ratio of total market capitalization to gross domestic product (GDP), is known as the Buffett indicator and is considered a key measure of market valuations [2] - Buffett warned that if this ratio approaches 200%, it indicates a risky market environment [3] - The Buffett indicator reached 219% recently, its highest level ever, suggesting that investors are "playing with fire" [4] Historical Context - The Buffett indicator approached 200% in 1999 and 2000, leading to the dot-com bubble burst and a significant market decline [3] - In late 2022, the Buffett indicator again neared 200%, coinciding with a peak in the S&P 500, which subsequently fell over 25% [4] Additional Valuation Metrics - The S&P 500 Shiller CAPE ratio, developed by Robert Shiller, is another important valuation metric that has historically predicted market downturns and is currently at its second-highest level ever [4][5] - The Shiller CAPE ratio averages inflation-adjusted earnings over the past 10 years, providing a long-term perspective on valuations [5]

Core Insights - The article discusses Andrew Ross Sorkin's new book "1929," which recounts the stock market crash that led to the Great Depression, highlighting the historical significance of The Plaza Hotel as a social hub for influential figures in finance [1][2] Group 1: Historical Context - The Plaza Hotel served as a gathering place for wealthy individuals and was directly involved in the stock market activities of the time, with its Oak Room bar functioning as a brokerage location [2] - During the 1920s, the atmosphere was characterized by speculation, as Prohibition led to the closure of bars, making stock trading a popular pastime [3] Group 2: Regulatory Changes - Significant regulatory changes have occurred since the 1920s, including the establishment of the Securities and Exchange Commission and requirements for companies to issue a prospectus for their stock offerings, which aim to prevent the market manipulation that was prevalent in the past [4] Group 3: Current Market Concerns - Sorkin expresses concern that similar conditions leading to the 1929 crash are re-emerging, particularly with the current AI-driven market enthusiasm, suggesting that human greed continues to influence market behavior [5]

Core Viewpoint - The likelihood of a significant correction in the US stock market is higher than many financiers believe, with predictions of a potential crash within the next six months to two years [1][2]. Group 1: Market Concerns - Jamie Dimon estimates the probability of a market correction to be around 30%, significantly higher than the market's implied 10% [2]. - Dimon highlights various uncertainties affecting the market, including geopolitical tensions, fiscal spending, and global remilitarization [2][3]. - The level of uncertainty in the market should be considered higher than normal, according to Dimon [3]. Group 2: Global Economic Outlook - Kristalina Georgieva, head of the International Monetary Fund, acknowledges the resilience of the global economy but warns of mounting risks and uncertainty being the new normal [4]. - Georgieva cautions that the global economy has not yet faced its full test, indicating potential challenges ahead [4]. Group 3: AI Market Valuations - Concerns are rising regarding a stock market bubble driven by high valuations of AI companies, with the Bank of England noting a growing risk of a sudden correction in global markets [5]. - Dimon acknowledges that some investments in AI may result in losses, but believes that AI as a whole will ultimately yield positive returns [6].

Core Insights - October is not statistically more likely to experience market crashes compared to other months, with a 0.06% probability of a one-day crash as severe as the 1987 crash [3] - Despite the historical perception of October as a risky month, the actual data suggests that the month has below-average occurrences of bear markets starting [5] - Individual sectors that have significantly outperformed the market are at a higher risk of crashing, with probabilities increasing as the degree of outperformance rises [6] Market Crash Probability - The probability of a one-day crash in October is equivalent to that of any other month, indicating no special risk associated with this month [3][4] - The belief that October is more vulnerable to crashes is challenged by data showing fewer bear markets beginning in October since 1900 [5] Sector Vulnerability - Industries that outperform the market by large margins face elevated crash risks, with a 53% probability of crashing if they outperform by 100 percentage points over two years [6][7] - The crash probability increases to 76% when the outperformance reaches 125 percentage points and to 80% at 150 percentage points above the market [7]