Michael Burry attends the premiere of "The Big Short" at Ziegfeld Theatre on November 23, 2015 in New York City.Michael Burry questioned Tesla's valuation as the investor of "The Big Short" fame took aim at the practice of technology companies issuing tons of stock-based compensation and excluding it from earnings results.The investor argues that when accounting for the true profits that include the cost of this compensation and its negative dilution of the company's value over time, companies like Tesla sh ...

Michael Burry has decided Tesla belongs in his personal pantheon of overvalued giants. The “Big Short” investor, who named his new Substack “Cassandra Unchained” after the doomed mythological prophet and amassed about $1.1 billion in puts on Nvidia and Palantir, is now using his newsletter to argue that “Tesla’s market capitalization is ridiculously overvalued today and has been for a good long time” and that CEO Elon Musk’s $1 trillion pay package all but guarantees more dilution for shareholders. In Bur ...

Core Viewpoint - Michael Burry is aggressively betting against Nvidia, claiming that the AI boom is a bubble and attempting to convince others of his bearish thesis [2][3][15]. Group 1: Burry's Allegations and Strategy - Burry holds over $1 billion in bearish put options on Nvidia and Palantir, indicating a strong belief that their stock prices will decline [3]. - He accuses Nvidia of costing shareholders $112.5 billion through stock-based compensation, which he claims reduces owners' earnings by 50% [3]. - Burry suggests that AI companies are manipulating financials by overstating the useful lives of Nvidia's GPUs, leading to inflated capital expenditures [3]. - He argues that the demand for AI products is misleading, as customers are allegedly funded through a circular financing scheme [3]. Group 2: Nvidia's Response - Nvidia has issued a seven-page memo to Wall Street analysts, countering Burry's claims and stating that his calculations are incorrect, particularly regarding stock buybacks [5]. - The company asserts that its employee compensation practices are consistent with industry peers and emphasizes that it is not comparable to Enron [5]. Group 3: Market Implications and Historical Context - Burry's warnings have gained traction, leading to speculation about whether he could influence investor sentiment and trigger a sell-off in Nvidia's stock [15][16]. - Historical examples show that prominent critics can accelerate the unraveling of companies with underlying issues, as seen with Enron and Lehman Brothers [15]. - Nvidia's market cap is currently at $4.5 trillion, having increased twelvefold since early 2023, making it the most valuable company in the world [8].

Core Insights - Michael Burry critiques Nvidia Corp.'s shareholder practices, highlighting a disconnect between earnings and shareholder benefits [1][2] - Burry's analysis reveals that Nvidia's stock-based compensation practices dilute the benefits of its share buyback program [4][6] Financial Performance - Nvidia generated $205 billion in cumulative net income and $188 billion in free cash flow from 2018 to mid-2025 [3] - The company executed $112.5 billion in share buybacks during the same period [3] Stock-Based Compensation Impact - Nvidia issued $20.5 billion in stock-based compensation, which Burry argues offsets the entire buyback effort, increasing shares outstanding by 47 million [4][5] - Annual stock-based compensation rose from $1.3 billion in 2018 to $4.7 billion in fiscal year 2025 [5] Implications for Investors - Burry's analysis suggests that the dilution from stock-based compensation reduced Nvidia's per-share earnings by approximately 50% [7] - This dilution effect means that existing shareholders own a smaller percentage of the company despite significant buybacks [7]

Core Viewpoint - Michael Burry continues to express concerns about Nvidia and the AI sector, arguing that the current market may be experiencing a bubble despite Nvidia's strong earnings report and optimistic growth forecasts [1][2][8]. Company Performance - Nvidia reported record revenue and profit for the last quarter, leading to a 5% increase in stock price during premarket trading [2]. - The company's finance chief, Colette Kress, indicated visibility to $0.5 trillion in revenue from Blackwell and Rubin over 2025 and 2026, and projected $3 trillion to $4 trillion in annual AI infrastructure spending by 2030 [3]. Management's Perspective - CEO Jensen Huang dismissed concerns about an AI bubble, stating that the company sees a different reality [3]. - Kress emphasized the longevity of Nvidia's older chips due to the CUDA software, which allows older systems to run current applications effectively [3]. Investor Concerns - Burry criticized Nvidia's accounting practices, suggesting that the extended use of older chips does not equate to profitability, drawing parallels to airlines retaining old planes for capacity [4][5]. - He highlighted the inefficiency of older chips compared to newer models, implying that customers using them incur higher operational costs [4]. Market Dynamics - Burry pointed out the complex financial relationships between Nvidia and other AI companies, suggesting that true demand for AI products is limited and often reliant on dealer funding [6][9]. - He expressed skepticism about the sustainability of investments in the AI sector, comparing it to the dot-com bubble and warning of potential overinvestment [9]. Stock Buybacks and Compensation - Burry noted that Nvidia has repurchased nearly $113 billion in stock since 2018, yet the number of shares outstanding has increased by 47 million, raising concerns about stock-based compensation diluting owner earnings [7].

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Total revenues increased by 35% to COP 17 billion, with EBITDA rising over 12% to COP 705 million [6][8] - Cash flow generated by operating activities reached COP 1.1 billion, a 49% increase year over year [6] - Same store sales grew by 13.5%, indicating strong performance in existing locations [6][8] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company opened 117 net new stores, bringing the total to 2,889 stores, compared to 94 stores opened in the same quarter last year [6][7] - The total number of stores opened in the last twelve months increased to 507 from 416, reflecting a growth of roughly 100 stores [7] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company continues to be one of the fastest-growing retailers globally, with same store sales growth significantly outpacing competitors [8][9] - The gap in same store sales performance compared to Antad is notable and increasing, indicating a competitive advantage [9] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company emphasizes a robust business model that is resilient and focuses on increasing market share through consistent execution and attractive value propositions [14][106] - Investments in talent and technology are prioritized to support future growth, with a focus on operational efficiency and logistics [11][27][29] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management acknowledges a challenging consumer environment but believes the company's value proposition will continue to attract customers [80][81] - The company is well-positioned to benefit from economic pressures, as its offerings are essential goods that consumers are less likely to cut back on [80][82] Other Important Information - The company maintains a net cash position of approximately COP 1.6 billion, with additional cash in U.S. dollars [6] - Share-based compensation is viewed as a high-return investment, driving growth and maintaining a strong entrepreneurial spirit within the company [95][96] Q&A Session Summary Question: How should the company think about investments in talent and distribution centers? - Management emphasizes that investments are made with a focus on return, and increasing talent density is seen as a competitive advantage [18][20] Question: Can you comment on sales expenses and their impact on margins? - Management explains that sales expenses are expected to increase due to the pace of store openings, but leverage is still seen at the unit level [34][36] Question: What are the dynamics behind gross margin in the first quarter? - Management states that gross margin remains stable, driven by scaling and the benefits of both commercial and private label products [46] Question: How does the company view its relationship with suppliers amid current economic conditions? - Management indicates strong relationships with suppliers and a long-term planning approach to ensure efficiency and supply [87][88] Question: What is the company's perspective on stock-based compensation and potential dilution? - Management defends stock-based compensation as a necessary investment for growth, clarifying that it is a non-cash expense [95][102]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Total revenues increased by 35% to COP 17 billion, with EBITDA rising over 12% to COP 705 million [5][7] - Cash flow from operating activities reached COP 1.1 billion, a 49% year-over-year increase [5] - Same store sales grew by 13.5%, indicating strong performance in existing locations [5][7] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company opened 117 net new stores, bringing the total to 2,889 stores, compared to 94 stores opened in the same quarter last year [5][6] - The total number of stores opened in the last twelve months increased to 507 from 416, reflecting a significant acceleration in growth [6] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company continues to be one of the fastest-growing retailers globally, with same store sales growth significantly outpacing competitors [7] - The gap between the company's same store sales and Antad's performance is notable and increasing [7] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company emphasizes a robust business model that is resilient and focused on increasing market share through consistent execution and attractive value propositions [4][13] - Investments are being made in talent and technology to support future growth, with a focus on operational efficiency and logistics [9][25] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management acknowledges a challenging consumer environment but believes the company's value proposition will continue to attract customers [78] - The company is well-prepared for potential impacts from changes in labor regulations and trade agreements, indicating resilience in its business model [60][79] Other Important Information - The company maintains a net cash position of approximately COP 1.6 billion, with additional cash in U.S. dollars [5] - Share-based compensation is viewed as a critical investment for attracting and retaining talent, despite concerns about potential dilution [95][96] Q&A Session Summary Question: How should the company think about investments in talent and distribution centers? - Management emphasizes that investments are made with a focus on return, and increasing talent density is seen as a competitive advantage [17][18] Question: Can you comment on the timing of sales expenses and growth investments? - The company is increasing the pace of store openings, which impacts sales expenses, but expects to see leverage on older stores [33][35] Question: What are the dynamics behind gross margin and customer environment? - Management states that gross margin dynamics remain stable, driven by scaling, and the company does not see pressure to drop prices [45][46] Question: How is the company managing supplier relationships amid current economic conditions? - The company maintains strong relationships with suppliers and plans for long-term efficiency, ensuring stability in supply and pricing [86][87] Question: What is the outlook on stock-based compensation and potential dilution? - Management views stock-based compensation as a high-return investment and has provided clarity on dilution expectations [95][97] Question: How does the company plan to address potential impacts from labor regulations? - The company is prepared to adapt to changes in labor regulations and believes that increased sales will help stabilize labor costs as a percentage of sales [60][78]