Group 1: Monetary Policy and Market Operations - The central bank conducted a 7-day reverse repurchase operation on January 19, with a fixed rate of 1.40%, totaling 158.3 billion yuan, resulting in a net injection of 72.2 billion yuan after accounting for 86.1 billion yuan in reverse repos maturing on the same day [1] - The interbank market showed stable funding supply and pricing, with the overnight repo weighted average rate (DR001) slightly above 1.3%, and the overnight quotes on the anonymous X-repo system also maintained around 1.30% [3] - The latest overnight financing rate in the U.S. was reported at 3.66% [4] Group 2: Bond Market Overview - The latest transaction rate for one-year interbank certificates of deposit was around 1.63%, unchanged from the previous day [7] - Most yields on interbank major interest rate bonds have increased [9] - The main contracts for government bond futures showed a decline, with the 30-year contract down by 0.22%, the 10-year down by 0.02%, and the 5-year also down by 0.02%, while the 2-year contract remained flat [11] Group 3: Economic Data and Trends - According to the National Bureau of Statistics, China's GDP for 2025 is projected to be 14,018.79 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 5%. The quarterly growth rates are 5.4% in Q1, 5.2% in Q2, 4.8% in Q3, and 4.5% in Q4 [12] - The industrial added value for the year increased by 5.9%, while the service sector's added value grew by 5.4%. However, fixed asset investment decreased by 3.8%, with real estate development investment down by 17.2% [12] - In December 2025, the sales prices of residential properties in 70 large and medium-sized cities showed a month-on-month decline, with first-tier cities' new home prices down by 0.3% and second and third-tier cities down by 0.4% [12] Group 4: Global Economic Context - Germany's finance minister indicated a strong response to U.S. tariffs, emphasizing the EU's readiness to find solutions without being coerced by the U.S. [15] - France's finance minister expressed full support for Greenland and Denmark, highlighting the need for European unity and preparation to utilize the EU's anti-coercion mechanism [15] - The bond market is experiencing a weakening of the stock-bond seesaw effect, with institutions being cautious about the bond market in Q1 [16]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent adjustments in China's bond market, analyzing the reasons behind the changes and the potential future outlook for bond investments [3][4]. Group 1: Reasons for Recent Adjustments - Tightening liquidity: The central bank net withdrew 1,077.3 billion yuan in February, continuing into March, leading to a marginal tightening of liquidity [5]. - Failed interest rate cut expectations: Overly optimistic market expectations for interest rate cuts were tempered by strong economic data in January and February, reducing the urgency for rate cuts [6]. - Stock-bond effect: A recovering stock market has led to increased risk appetite among investors, causing some funds to shift from the bond market to the stock market, exacerbating the decline in bond prices [7]. - Technical correction: The rapid decline in bond yields earlier created a need for a technical correction, resulting in the recent downturn in the bond market [8]. Group 2: Basis for Continued Bond Bull Market - Monetary policy easing expectations: Despite short-term liquidity tightening, the medium to long-term outlook remains supportive of easing monetary policy, with potential for further rate cuts [10]. - Weak economic fundamentals: Current internal demand is still recovering, and external uncertainties persist, preventing a significant rise in interest rates [11]. - Improved bond investment value: After recent adjustments, some bond products have become more attractive in terms of cost-performance ratio, especially in a volatile market [12]. Group 3: Divergent Institutional Views - Optimistic perspective: Some analysts believe the recent bond market decline is a temporary adjustment, with the long-term trend remaining bullish due to ongoing weak fundamentals and supportive monetary policy [14]. - Cautious stance: Other analysts suggest that while the bond market's trend may not reverse, the potential for further declines in interest rates is diminishing, and investors should remain cautious [15]. Group 4: Adjusting Bond Investment Return Expectations - The article emphasizes the need to lower return expectations for bond investments, as previous years' capital gains are unlikely to continue, given the current yield levels and market conditions [18].