Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent adjustments in China's bond market, analyzing the reasons behind the changes and the potential future outlook for bond investments [3][4]. Group 1: Reasons for Recent Adjustments - Tightening liquidity: The central bank net withdrew 1,077.3 billion yuan in February, continuing into March, leading to a marginal tightening of liquidity [5]. - Failed interest rate cut expectations: Overly optimistic market expectations for interest rate cuts were tempered by strong economic data in January and February, reducing the urgency for rate cuts [6]. - Stock-bond effect: A recovering stock market has led to increased risk appetite among investors, causing some funds to shift from the bond market to the stock market, exacerbating the decline in bond prices [7]. - Technical correction: The rapid decline in bond yields earlier created a need for a technical correction, resulting in the recent downturn in the bond market [8]. Group 2: Basis for Continued Bond Bull Market - Monetary policy easing expectations: Despite short-term liquidity tightening, the medium to long-term outlook remains supportive of easing monetary policy, with potential for further rate cuts [10]. - Weak economic fundamentals: Current internal demand is still recovering, and external uncertainties persist, preventing a significant rise in interest rates [11]. - Improved bond investment value: After recent adjustments, some bond products have become more attractive in terms of cost-performance ratio, especially in a volatile market [12]. Group 3: Divergent Institutional Views - Optimistic perspective: Some analysts believe the recent bond market decline is a temporary adjustment, with the long-term trend remaining bullish due to ongoing weak fundamentals and supportive monetary policy [14]. - Cautious stance: Other analysts suggest that while the bond market's trend may not reverse, the potential for further declines in interest rates is diminishing, and investors should remain cautious [15]. Group 4: Adjusting Bond Investment Return Expectations - The article emphasizes the need to lower return expectations for bond investments, as previous years' capital gains are unlikely to continue, given the current yield levels and market conditions [18].