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从逻辑到业绩,把握回调机会,存储周期远未结束
2025-10-13 14:56
Summary of Conference Call on Storage Industry Industry Overview - The storage industry is currently experiencing strong performance driven by AI demand growth and limited upstream supply due to low expansion willingness and technological bottlenecks [1][2] - The storage sector saw significant gains in September, particularly among module manufacturers, computing servers, and enterprise storage companies, reflecting market recognition of an AI-driven storage supercycle [1][3] Key Insights and Arguments - Consumer-grade NAND prices surged by 30% in September, leading to severe channel shortages, with expectations of a 20%-30% increase in new contract prices from Korean manufacturers [1][4] - DRAM demand growth is outpacing supply capacity, with prices expected to continue modestly increasing in the first half of next year [1][4] - The NAND upcycle is anticipated to last longer than traditional cycles due to the growing demand for training and inference servers [1][4] - Most storage companies reported a turnaround to profitability in Q3, marking a performance inflection point, with historical data indicating that significant growth typically lags behind price increases by about two quarters [1][5] Future Trends - The current market cycle is expected to last longer than previous cycles, with structural changes among different types of storage products [2][3] - Despite potential short-term fluctuations due to tariff changes, the long-term industry trend remains positive, with any pullbacks seen as good entry points for investment [3][6] - The first wave of stock price increases has been driven by rising storage prices, and the next wave will be driven by sustained earnings growth [5][6] Additional Important Points - The relationship between stock prices and earnings is crucial; continued upward momentum in stock prices requires sustained earnings growth [5] - The upcoming Q3 earnings reports will be critical for assessing future stock performance and market trends [3][6]